Dispatch from Coronaville: #dayofinfamy

A few questions as our liberal president steers our nation straight into the maw of another senseless war barely twenty years since the last one.

This so-called Day of Infamy. Let's think about that for a second. Japan is an island nation on the other side of the world. How is it possible that they were able to launch a devastating attack on American soil?  There are no bombers with the range to get from the land of the Rising Sun to our military base in Hawaii. I know they say the attack was launched from Japanese aircraft carriers.  But can we seriously be expected to believe that they could launch enough planes from BOATS to cause the supposed level of damage to our fleet at Pearl Harbor?  And why would Japan risk attacking the most powerful nation on earth, raising our wrath when we were essentially leaving them alone?  It doesn't make sense! THINK, sheeple!  Don't just buy what the government and it's media mouthpieces want you to believe!  Did you know there were Japanese envoys in Washington DC the day of this supposed "attack", negotiating with our government?  Why would they be there if they knew that their country was supposed to attack ours?  Check out my link to retired General J.D. McCAbe's fascinating radio address where he debunks this whole notion of a Japanese attack as nonsense. He points out numerous errors in the official "footage" of the burning ships at Pearl Harbor.  As a decorated World War I veteran, this man knows his stuff but he's not in the employ of FDR and his deep state operatives so he will tell it like it is.

And the "casualty count" for this "attack"?  Inflated. I have a doctor friend in Hawaii who told me that they are being pressured to count every sailor death as having come from this attack. A poor guy bangs into a coconut tree in his jeep after a wild night out and instantly, he's a victim at Pearl Harbor. It's shameful.

No, friends, I'll tell you what this is.  This is a power grab by Franklin "Dictator" Roosevelt, a president that has been trying to grow the reach of government since the day he got elected in 1932. Look at the pile of socialist big government waste he's foisted on us with his multitude of alphabet soup handouts. It's a travesty.  If that wasn't enough, he's now concocted this enemy in Japan to further extend the tentacles of Big Government. It's a known fact that FDR has been secretly providing aid to Great Britain and other European nations in their fight with Nazi Germany--this without the approval or consent of Congress or the American people! He's been itching to get into this war and now he has the perfect excuse!

And look at the results! Our freedoms are being taken away daily.  Our food is being rationed for "the war effort".  Look I ought to be able to decide how much butter or meat I want to eat. I don't need the government telling me how much I can consume.  Fuel is being rationed and you have to have a special pass that shows your work is "essential" to the war effort to be allowed more.  Who are they to decide who and what is "essential"?   Our factories are being forced to manufacture materials for FDR's war machine. I can't even buy a new car this year! They are drafting our young men and they have to go whether they want to or not. And guess where most of them are going? Not to the Pacific, but to Europe.  Surprise, surprise apparently Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy are now our "first priority."  Our boys dying in the cause of ever greater government control over our lives.

"Don't you know there's a war on?" That's what the war boosters always say when they want to guilt us into living under the government's thumb. But my question is, is there really a war on? Or are we all being played?

Let those who have ears let them hear.

The Numbers by the month: I thought it might be interesting to look at how things have changed in the past month. Since April 6, we've seen a 236% increase in the number COVID-19 cases.  From 365,000 to 1.2 million in a month's time.  With a rate of increase half that amount, we should be looking at a total of 2.4 million by June 6. Total deaths have increased 565% from around 10,000 to over 72,000. At half that rate we should be looking at 275,000 deaths by June 6.

As of today, the total cases of COVID-19 in the Unites States are 1,228,764, an increase of 6.5% and about 17,000 less than I predicted.  The total deaths are 72,618, an increase of 7.8% and 270 deaths more than I predicted. Of course the latest thing going around the internet is that "they" are forcing doctors to call practically every death a Coronavirus death. It makes me wonder how bad it has to get before some people are willing to accept that this is really an actual thing that is happening. Meg Paulins, a friend of a friend on Facebook commented on one of these articles and I have copied her thoughts below. I don't claim her as some great authority, but since practically everybody these days is out there shopping their opinions based on "common sense", I figure why not:

  "Hospitals get paid different amounts, for different types of patients, because they get different care. That's always been true. But hospitals don't label deaths wrong to try to squeeze more money out of insurance on a regular basis, even though technically they could try -- because it is major fraud, doctors would lose their licenses, and whole facilities could be shut down.  

Hospitals, I very much doubt, are suddenly going to start committing widespread fraud, just for some extra bucks, to falsely lie about coronavirus patients.

They know that the information on coronavirus cases, and the deaths, will be scrutinized like crazy, by multiple groups, for years. As they analyze data to see what similarities patients had, what treatments worked, how the disease progressed, etc. If they were falsely labeling cases as coronavirus deaths, but there was zero treatment done to match coronavirus- they would get caught. All it takes is one family to take a death certificate with coronavirus in it, for a patient who clearly did not die of coronavirus-- to start a lawsuit that could ruin a hospital.

All these stories keep "saying" someone died of another cause but got s death certificate with COVID19 as the cause of death.... But there has not been one single case of that proven, and not a single court case pending.

Of course they get paid more to help offset caring for pandemic patients. That doesn't mean the hospitals are committing major fraud. That just makes zero sense."

This is the kind of non-conspiracy theory thinking that I really appreciate. Most conspiracy theories rely on people behaving more like movie villains and demonstrating a level of discipline and cooperation that we just don't see in real life. I believe that people behave like people, not cackling supervillains and mindless Storm Troopers.  I find it particularly ironic that the same people that are first to decry the ineptitude of the government are also the ones arguing that the government can pull off massive cover-ups like this without a hitch (except that we all somehow know it if we would just stop being sheeple. . .What kind of conspiracy is that? The whole point is that no one knows it's happening. . ..)

 Based on the last three days, I project we will have 1,308,633 total cases of the Coronavirus in the United States by Saturday, May 9. We will also have 78,282 deaths.

New Cases

New Deaths

It kind of sucks to be Ohio. Our new cases have jumped and our deaths are once again off the chart: 204 new deaths since Sunday! Meanwhile Florida and Nebraska have dropped in both numbers of new cases and deaths.

Total Cases of COVID-19
Florida: 37,341 total cases, 0.17% of the population. This is a 174% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount should bring Florida to 69,828 cases by June 6.
Ohio: 21,576 total cases, 0.18% of the population. This is a 385% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount should bring Ohio to 63,217 cases by June 6.
Nebraska: 6,505 total cases, 0.33% of the population. This is a 1,385% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount over the next month (which seems a stretch to me) would bring total cases to 51,584 by June 6.


Total Deaths of COVID-19
Florida: 1,470 total deaths, a rate of 3.9%. This is a 481% increase over the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring 5,012 deaths by June 6.
Ohio: 1,225 total deaths, a rate of 5.7%.  This a 763% increase in the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring Ohio to 5,905 surpassing Florida's death count by June 6.
Nebraska: 83 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%. This is 822% increase in the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring 424 deaths by June 6.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Coping

The past few days have been a little tougher.  To deal with the overwhelming changes that have engulfed our lives with the arrival of the Coronavirus, I've settled on two means of coping.

The first is to stop fighting the tide. Not literally, and not even verbally. It's more about just accepting that what ever we will do as as country is what we will do.  I've given over a lot of emotional energy to frustration at the foolishness in our nation's approach to the crisis. I can't do that any more.  I've accepted that we do not have (and likely will not ever have) sufficient testing. I've accepted that when they finally do come up with some sort of a treatment or vaccine, a chunk of the country will refuse to take it. I've accepted that any steps to address this crisis that have been shown to be effective elsewhere in the rest of the world will be rejected out of hand by a significant portion of my countrymen. I've accepted that many otherwise intelligent and decent people will throw their lot in with the most absurd conspiracy theories and Covid truths as revealed by Dr. So and So in his latest YouTube rant. I've accepted that we are likely opening up too soon and that it's possible that we will pay the price by continuing to lead the world in COVID-19 cases and deaths.  I've also accepted that many people will somehow deny that this is actually happening and make excuses as to why somehow it was all inevitable anyway. I've accepted that the economic cost will be more than we can imagine. I've accepted that we will muddle through.

The second is to take things one day at a time. I can't have discussions about what school will look like next year or how long it will take to develop a vaccine. I can't worry about what summer plans will be, or whether my sons will get to go swimming anywhere at all this summer, about whether we'll be able to go visit family in Florida. Right now my goal is just to make the most of today and let tomorrow take care of itself.

The numbers: The United States has reached a total of 1,153,303 cases of COVID-19. This represents an increase of 8% over the past three days and about 11,000 fewer than I predicted. The total death toll is now 67,365, a 7.4% increase and also 11,000 fewer than I predicted. By Wednesday, May 6, I predict there will be a total of 1,245,567 cases of the virus and 72,350 deaths.

I'm glad to report the number of new cases has dropped once again in Florida and Ohio, although Nebraska has had it's three day number of new cases rise to it's highest level yet.
Florida: 36,070 total cases, 0.16% of the population.
Ohio: 19,335 total cases, 0.17% of the population
Nebraska: 5,333 total cases, 0.27% of the population

New deaths are down as well so that is good news. All three states saw fewer new deaths over the the last three days.
Florida: 1,378 total deaths, a rate of 3.8%
Ohio: 1,021 total deaths, a rate of 5%
Nebraska: 76 total deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Dispatch from Coronaville: So Cruel

Three days later things don't look so hot.  I'm really wanting to see a generally consistent pattern of declining cases and deaths. A few spikes here and there, sure. But this?  It's not encouraging.  New deaths skyrocketed in both Florida and Ohio, and both saw jumps in the number of new cases.

First a look at the nation as a whole. As I predicted on Monday we surpassed the million mark for those infected, with a total of 1,068,557 cases. At a 9% rate of increase, not quite as high predicted but also not too far off either, only about 6000 shy of my projection. As for deaths, I was wrong again but for the first time in weeks--in the wrong direction. I thought we'd be at 55,000 deaths representing a 10% increase. Instead we've lost a total of 62,708 folks to this disease, a 25% increase and some 7,000 more than I expected.  I suppose this could be "catch-up" of people who've been languishing in the hospital for a few weeks finally giving up the ghost.  But that's hardly cause for celebration.

Overall the picture just doesn't look to me like this thing is quite wrapped up.  And yet that's the way we are acting. And I do get it in a way. My heart tells me it's time to be done with this quarantine. I'm tired of staying at home. My students are struggling with depression. It just feels like this should be over.  But a hamburger also feels like just what my body needs. And that isn't necessarily so.  The reality on the ground just does not sync with what our feelings tell us should be happening. But as a nation that's the way we are headed.

We are desperate for this thing to just go away.  People I respect a great deal are shopping around old theories that it's all a hoax. Any YouTube video put out by anybody with an MD after the name is trumpeted as "proof."  We are desperate and in our desperation I fear we are ignoring reality.  My first prediction is coming true.  We are opening up, ready or not.  I'm really looking forward to the end of all this whining from protest crowd.  Stop crying, geez. You'll get your way. Just chill. But I don't think it will look like you think it will. To riff on a popular quote these days: "Those who would give the health of the country for the sake of a strong economy will end up with neither  health nor a strong economy."  That's the second part of my prediction and by May's end we will see whether it holds up as well.

Here's my predictions for the next three days. By Sunday, May 3 I predict 1,164,727 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States and 78,385 deaths (hopefully I will be way over in my prediction, but my practice is always to use the rate of increase for the previous 3 days and in this case it was 25%)

Here's those glum graphs:

Both Florida and Ohio have bounced back up in the number of new cases. Nebraska has dipped slightly.
Florida: 33,683 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Ohio:18,027 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Nebraska: 3,876 total cases, 0.2% of the population. Nebraska seems to be having a "corona moment." Despite the numerically lower figures, Nebraska has a lot fewer people than Florida and Ohio, and that percentage of the population known to be infected is telling. For contrast note that the percentage of the U.S. population known to have been infected is in the neighborhood of 0.3%.

The deaths are truly discouraging. When I started these graphs I was confident that we were on the downhill side of this more or less and I did not expect we see more than 180 deaths over a three-day period from any of the states I'm monitoring. Unfortunately I was wrong.  Both Florida and Ohio went off the charts since Monday. Florida had 193 new deaths and Ohio was even worse with 247 deaths! Nebraska spiked up too with 12 deaths.  I'm really hoping we'll see these numbers fall back into my chart by Sunday. If they don't I will reluctantly add another sheet to my graph.
Florida: 1,266 total deaths, a rate of 3.8%
Ohio: 975 total deaths, a rate of 5.4%
Nebraska: 68 total deaths, a rate of 1.8%

"Desperation is a tender trap, it gets you every time."
                                                          --U2 "So Cruel"

Dispatch from Coronaville: Headed Downhill (In a Good Way)

At last the graphs are looking like I hoped they would.  A consistent downhill slide in new cases and new deaths. I'm feeling hopeful.

Still, people are suffering. Since this crisis arrived on American shores, I've gone from knowing no one who had COVID-19, to hearing about friends of friends getting it, to knowing acquaintances who have it, to now people that I know and love very well getting the infection. Until these graphs hit the x-axis, its not over yet.

The Numbers: The rate of increase in cases and deaths of COVID-19 continues to slow. As of today there have been 977,256 cases of the disease in the United States and 50,134 deaths. This about 13,000 fewer cases than I predicted, and 2000 fewer deaths. Taking the same rate of increase from the past three days and projecting to Thursday, May 30, a 10% increase in new cases would bring us to over one millions cases--a total of 1,074,982. Additionally a 10% increase in total deaths (an rate that has slowed by four percentage points since Friday) would bring us to 55,147.


The Graphs:

I have to say these graphs look great today! Both Florida and Ohio continue a precipitous drop in the number of new cases of COVID-19. In fact for the first time, Nebraska had more new cases than Ohio did (okay fine, it was only four more but still).  I'd like to think of it as Ohio joining the ranks the low viral-growth states rather than Nebraska moving up. We'll see what the next week or so brings.
Florida: 31,520 total cases, 0.14% of the population.
Ohio: 15,963 total cases, 0.14% of the population
Nebraska: 3,126 total cases, 0.16% of the population. For the first time Nebraska has the highest percentage of it's population infected of the three states in question.

More good news.  New deaths have also plummeted in all three states.  Florida has the lowest number of new deaths it's had in almost a month. Ohio has the lowest number since April 12.  And Nebraska could be returning to the virtually constant rate of 3-6 new deaths daily it had before the rate spiked last week.
Florida: 1,073 total deaths, a rate of 3.4%
Ohio: 728 total deaths, a rate of 4.6%
Nebraska: 56 total deaths, a rate of 1.8%
The one piece of consistently bad news is that the death rate for those who test positive is so high. I've heard the argument that if there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers, the death rate is actually much lower, but those percentages still represent a lot of people.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Who do you BeLIEve?

These guys thought the media environment was bad then? They had no idea what was coming. Image from the U2 Zoo TV Tour performance in Sydney Australia, 1992

In these troubled times who do you believe?  How do you know who you can trust? Of course I'm not talking about those near and dear.  I'm talking about the information peddlers, the talking heads, the power players, authorities and deciders and experts. How do you know if you're getting good information or an injection of disinfectant?

One unfortunate side effect of the the chaotic media environment we now live in is that many of us have come to the conclusion that it's impossible to know.  After all isn't it all spin? Everyone pushing their agenda, bending, twisting and even breaking the truth to fit their own preconceived notions? "Don't believe what you hear, don't believe what you see, if you just close your eyes you can feel the enemy." Those lyrics from the early 90's U2 song "Acrobat" seem to fit the zeitgeist. And so we close our eyes, feel the enemy, and  take refuge in whatever feels true, whatever confirms what we already believe.

I don't think it has to be this way. I propose it's still possible to sort out, if not absolute truth, than at least a sense of the right direction.  We can use logic, some critical thinking, and a bit of common sense to sort through the chatter. Don't get me wrong, I don't claim to have arrived at some higher plane of understanding. I've been wrong many times over since COVID-19 invaded our shores (indeed I haven't hit the mark once since I began this blog!). But I do feel like I have a toolbox of sorts for deciding what to believe.

One of the tools I apply is to consider how motivated the source is--and what the motivation is. I consider what the source has to gain if what they are saying is true.  People who have a lot to gain from a certain outcome are more likely to ignore contradictory evidence and selectively focus on data that reinforces what they want to happen. If on the other hand, the source is presenting information that doesn't bring them any meaningful benefit and in fact might be damaging to them, I'm more likely to believe them.

"It don't really matter to me baby, you believe what you want to believe, you see"
                                                                                                    --Tom Petty, "Refugee"

But we don't have to just believe what we want to believe.  Taking a moment to step back, consider the source and what they might have to gain, might just be the key not living like well...a refugee.

Here are the numbers: As we enter the weekend, there are a total of 891,957 cases of COVID-19, representing an increase of 11% over the past three days. We are about 9,000 cases shy of what I'd predicted. Deaths increased at a slower rate as well, down four percentage points, to 14%, a total of 45,757 lives lost. I was off by a little less than 2000.  Adjusting projections down again I would expect 990,072 total cases by Monday, April 27 and 52,163 deaths.

As for our benchmark states, here's the updated graphs:

Both Florida and Ohio showed a significant decrease in the number of new cases since April 21, with Ohio's new cases plummeting after rising continuously since April 15.  Nebraska's new cases continue to increase.
Florida: Total cases 30,166, 0.14% of the population.
Ohio: Total cases 15,169, 0.13% of the population.
Nebraska: Total cases 2,324, 0.12% of the population. Nebraska has been climbing up the list of the states. Once in the bottom ten, then hovering for awhile at 13th or 14th from the bottom, it's now 17th from the bottom.

Unfortunately both Florida and Ohio showed increases in the number of new deaths over the past three days. Nebraska ticked down by 1, from 14 to 13 new deaths during this time period. Not so long ago that was the number of total deaths in the state. Now these are just the new ones.
Florida: Total deaths: 1,011, a rate of 3.4%
Ohio: Total deaths: 690, a rate of 4.5%
Nebraska: Total deaths: 51, a rate of 2.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Riding the Corona-Coaster

I decided to graph a different look at the COVID-19 situation in my three benchmark states: Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska. For my graphs I wanted to look not at the total cases and deaths but just the new cases and new deaths.  What I found, I think, is insightful. I guess I was expecting a nice, smooth curve, perhaps still increasing or maybe on the downward slope. But instead we have something that looks a lot like a roller-coaster ride.  It's one scary ride and it doesn't look to me like we are near the end yet.  Here are the graphs, and below each one, my takeaways.

New cases are tricky. As I've said before an increase in cases due to more widespread testing would be a good thing, espec. As I've said before an increase in cases due to more widespread testing would be a good thing, especially if the number of deaths were consistently decreasing.  I'm not at all sure that's what we are seeing. Based on what my graph shows, in terms of new cases, Florida appears to have already peaked, whereas Ohio and Nebraska have not (or if they have that peak was today). Look at Ohio, despite all the good press about our governor, our new cases have skyrocketed shooting up from 1200 new cases on April 15 to 3600 today! That number matches Florida's previous peak and for the first time since I started keeping track on March 31, Ohio's new cases outpaced Florida's--and not be a little. Meanwhile Nebraska still seems to be on the uphill side of this as well.

Looking at new deaths, the news for Ohio is a little better. It's possible that we may have peaked on April 15 and are hopefully on the downhill side of this.  It appears that Florida peaked three days ago and is perhaps on the downhill side also.  Nebraska on the other hand saw it's greatest three day jump in deaths to date. The next six days should tell us a lot. Either we've still got some terrifying ups and downs a head or we are beginning the gradual approach to the end of this ride.  I know I would not feel comfortable opening up just yet.

For the nation as a whole. Total cases increased 12% to 804,175, about 7,000 shy of what I predicted. We notched down another 1% increase. Deaths increased 18%, down two percentage of increase points for a total of 40,185. I was off by just north of 600.  I will base my next predictions off these rates of increase. By Friday, April 24, there should be 900,676 cases in the United States, and 47,418 deaths.

The States: I'm making some minor modifications to my written data since the graphs tell us so much. I will posting my updated graphs with each post from here on out:
Florida: 27,861 total cases, 0.13% of the population. 866 total deaths, a rate of 3%.
Ohio: 13,725 total cases, 0.11% of the population.  557 total deaths, a rate of 4%. Part of the big jump in cases may have to do with the high rate of infection among our prison population.
Nebraska: 1,648 new cases, 0.1% of the population. 38 total deaths, a rate of 2.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Wishful Thinking

Last night just before bed I had a real down moment.  They come on me from time to time, these moments of desperation and. . .well, wishing.  I just want everything to go back to the way it was. I miss church and movies and school and shopping and being around people. I dread the long, slow slog back to some semblance of normal.  Even if my students can have their graduation later this summer will they be allowed to hug each other?  I don't want a new normal. I don't want to flatten the curve. I just want to to go back to the way it was in the Time Before.

I know it's just wishful thinking. I think a lot of us are afflicted by this wishful thinking and understandably so. I totally get those protesters out there in state capitals (including our own) across the nation demanding that the U.S. open up right now. It seems like frustration boiling over and I can relate. I think we all feel like saying: "Enough!"

But as understandable as it is, I don't know that just "opening up everything" is the answer. I'm not sure it's even possible to just "go back" on the turn of a dime and I sense that's what the protesters (and I) really are wishing for.  What I don't get though, is the sense that the protesters are motivated by a deep understanding of the coronavirus and how to minimize it's impact.

Because here's the thing:  We know what needs to be done to open up America safely.  We see it being done elsewhere in the world. We need mass testing. To me, that a country like ours with resources we're supposed to have cannot provide a test to any one of it's citizens that wants or needs one should be cause for grave concern.  This needs to be fixed. And to me that's what an informed protester should be demanding: "We want tests, we want tests!"

The irony is I honestly believe that the protesters will get their wish.  I predict the United States as a whole will start opening back up by the end of month, whether we are really ready or not. Some states may try to hold out, but the political pressure and the demands of the people will be intense.  What happens after that? Hopefully all our wishes will come true, the number of cases and deaths will not increase, our hospitals will be able to handle what new cases crop up and we'll look back and say, "Well I guess the experts were wrong. " But then again, if our wish is to open up without seriously considering the consequences, well, you know the saying:

Be careful what you wish for.

The Numbers: The rate of increase continues to decline. I predicted 721, 924 cases, and instead we saw a 13% increase to 717,825. This represents a only a slight slowing in the rate of increase over the previous four days and thus my prediction is only off by about 4,000. The deaths increase 20%, again more slowly than I forecast, to a total of 34,022, about 1200 fewer than I expected. I think what I would like to see is a massive increase in the number positive cases, indicating more widespread testing, while the death rate continues to slow. If we "reopen" without the proper testing capabilities in place, which is what I predict will happen, I predict that we will see big jump in cases (though not as many as we would with wider testing) and a corresponding jump in deaths due to the failure to properly contain the virus--as well as continued damage to the economy instead of the miraculous restoration we wish for.  As my friend and frequent covid-opinion sparing partner Rey likes to say: Time will tell. In the meantime here's my projections for the next four days:  By Tuesday, April 21 we will see 811,142 total cases and 40,826 deaths.

The States:
Florida: The rate of increase sped up to 14%, reaching 25,261, 0.11% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 25% to 739, a rate of 2.9%, slowing slightly since Wednesday.
Ohio: Cases increased at a quicker rate also, 31% to 10,222, 0.09% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 24% to 451, a rate of 4.4%. Glad to see our rate of death decrease over the past four days. I'd like to see that continue even as our case numbers continue to spiral up.
Nebraska: The rate of increase in cases spiked up considerably over the past four days to 31%,  a total of 1,216, 0.07% of the population. Deaths increased 14% to 24, a rate of 1.9%.  If this trend continues Nebraska is what we want to see for the rest of the nation, an increase in positive cases due to increased testing and a continually declining death rate.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Keep them Open

 I heard a stat the other day that 1 in 10 Ohio restaurants will end up closing permanently due to the Coronavirus lockdown. I don't want these three to be among them. If you are one of those people who feels safe with ordering takeout or delivery, please put these places on your list.

Mr. Hero on Livingston Avenue: This is a local franchise so there is more than one and though I'm sure your business will be valued at any of them, the one on Livingston is special to me. It's owned by the parents of one my 8th grade students. I'd been meaning to visit their fast food joint for years but never got around to it. I decided now, in these perilous times, that I couldn't put it off anymore. I went through their drive-thru and my student's mother (I think) took my order, and her dad gave me my food at the window.  The Patels are good people. Their older daughter has been in our school since kindergarten and their younger daughter is Ezra first grade classmate. I really want to see them survive and thrive in this difficult time. So if you live out east (or don't mind the drive) pay them a visit!

Mezze: Mezze has been my favorite Mediterranean place for many years. When we lived in New Albany it was just a five minute drive away, but even now I'll drive back there for their delicious Mezze bowls with the majudara/house rice mix, gyro meat, with all the toppings (feta, banana peppers, kalamata olives, cucumbers, pickles, tomatoes, lettuce) topped with tzatziki sauce. Yum. I have no personal connection to the owners. My plea is selfish. I just want to still be able to get my Mezze bowl when this is all over.

Jeni's Splendid Ice Cream. I know these days every city has luxe ice cream shop with inventive flavors, but in my personal opinion Jeni Britton Bauer did first and best. I have yet to order from Jeni's since the lockdown but she's next on my list. Jeni's Brambleberry Crisp ice cream is my favorite thing to eat in the whole world, and Elijah will choose Jeni's Salted Caramel over anything else. And the good news is if you are Nashville, Los Angeles, DC, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte  or a half dozen other cities, there's a Jeni's near you! Putting in the links for this blog I started drooling over the new flavors she's got out: Sweet Cream Biscuits and Peach Jam, Blueberry and Lemon Parfait, Raspberry Rose Jelly Donut, Pineapple Upsidedown Cake .I want to try them all.

We can debate all we want about how to reopen the country. But in the meantime, let's just be sure keep these local businesses open.

The Numbers: The increase in the number of cases continues to slow. The number of cases increased 14% to 633,267, a good 200,000 less than I predicted. Likewise the number of deaths increased 28% to a total of 28,278. Looking back at Sunday's blog I see I made a mistake in my prediction. I recorded the number of additional deaths as my prediction rather than the total which should have been 29,084. I was off by about 800. Even as the rate of increase of cases slackens the death rate remains higher. Based on a constant increase (which of course has never been the case) I would expect 721,924 cases by Saturday night, and 35,258 total deaths.

The States:
Florida: The number of cases rose 11% to 22,081, 0.1% of the population. The number of deaths rose 28% to 591, a rate of 2.7%. Florida's rate of increase of death actually increased over the past four days. That is a first, I believe. Florida also crept back  up to 8th in the nation for number of cases and moved from 11th to 9th in the nation for number of deaths. It hasn't been a great four days for Florida.
Ohio: The number of cases rose 18% to 7,791,  0.07% of the population. The number of deaths rose 43% to 361, a rate of 4.6%. Same story as Florida except worse. The percent of increase of deaths has risen dramatically over the past four days. Ohio still remains 17th in the nation for number of cases.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 13.5% to 931, 0.05% of the population. The number of deaths rose 16.7% to 21, a rate of 2.3% Nebraska is looking pretty good. Of the three it's the only one whose rate of increase of deaths slowed over the past four days. I also need to make a correction. Nebraska is 44th in the nation when you include the five U.S. territories and the District of Columbia (which the New York Times--the source of my data--does), 41st out the 50 states. They did move down one since Sunday so this also is an improvement.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Monday Morning Quarterback

Could this have been avoided? That's the question I've had on my mind for the past few days.  My friend J and I were talking the other day and he raised some good points. Points that led me to the short answer: No.  It's an American thing. You wouldn't understand.

I know there are people who gripe about President Trump's leadership (or lack thereof).  I'm one of those people. But when I think about it I don't know that things would have been much different under a President Clinton (or even a President DeWine--although I have a lot of respect for him). Had a different president taken the COVID-19 threat more seriously sooner, and taken steps to address it, I suspect there would have been a furious outcry from the public. The American people would have been enraged at any kind of government mandates, restrictions, requirements or expenditures on a crisis that seemed far away and nothing to do with us. Can you imagine a president that wasn't the darling of the right-wing media ecosystem doing any of the things this administration is doing? And doing them earlier, before the virus had even got a foothold? The opposition would be fierce and unrelenting.  Even a "normal" Republican president would have faced pushback, and indeed a president of either party would have had had a hard time disregarding the furor of the electorate to do what needed to be done.  In all fairness, our governor and others like him do not have to deal with the nation as a whole when making their decisions.

Could we have achieved widespread testing like South Korea and Germany did, and thus limit the need for the extensive lockdown of the country and the accompanying economic cataclysm? Even if we had the logistics to scale up nationwide testing, I don't think we would have been able to pull that off.  Again, the American cultural climate is the culprit here. The intrusiveness of the contact tracing that South Korea required, the monitoring and tracking--all of it would have been met with outrage.  We fuss now because people can't get tested unless they meet certain criteria, but imagine the government mandating that everyone be tested, symptoms or not.  The people would have rebelled.  And let's not forget that South Korea had already taken a black eye for MERS outbreak there some years ago and in a sense had a heard start, in that they had started putting in place the means to prevent another pandemic from taking such a toll on their country. Will we make meaningful changes to ensure that our country can keep on humming when (not if) the next outbreak comes along? I have my doubts.

My point is not to say that our American independence, our disdain for government schoolmarms, our fierce insistence on our individual rights is a bad thing. It's just a thing. In many cases it works out great for us. In other cases, not so much. This is one of those "not so much" cases.  We're just one of those countries that are going to pay a high price, literally in trillions of dollars, as well as in thousands of lives, to do things our way. And in this case, our way is the hard way.

So let's see where the numbers are: I predicted 588,510 cases of the virus by this evening. I was off by 33,000 or so cases. The actual number is 555,164.  I had predicted 26.033 deaths. Thankfully I was wrong again: 22,033 is the actual number. I did happen to get the 33 right but beyond that I was off by 4,000. Based on an increase of 20% over four days we should see a total of 832,746 cases by Wednesday night and a 32% increase in deaths will bring us to 7,051.

Our three states:
Florida: The number of cases rose 18% to 19,887, 0.09% of the population. The number of deaths rose 24% to 460, a rate of 2%. Florida has dropped to ninth in the nation in terms of number of cases and it is eleventh in the nation for number of deaths, meaning there are states with fewer cases but more deaths than Florida (Connecticut and Washington have that unfortunate distinction).
Ohio: The number of cases rose 20% to 6,604, 0.06% of the population. The number of deaths rose 19% to 253, a rate of 3.8%. Ohio's percent of increase in deaths slowed significantly over the past four days, but still I think I'd rather be in Florida than here if I contracted the virus. Ohio holds steady at 17th in the nation.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 38% to 820, 0.04% of the population. The number of deaths rose 20% to 18, a rate of 2.2%. Nebraska moved up a notch to 36th in the nation, and though it's percent increase of death has slowed over the past four days it's rate of infection is the only one of the three with an infection rate that increased over the past four days.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Paradise Lost?

There is definitely a sliding scale of loss in this pandemic. There are the truly horrific losses.  The loss of life to the virus. Parents and grandparents. Sons and daughters. Spouses and Siblings. Friends and Lovers, all taken too soon by this terrible scourge.  There is devastating loss of livelihoods, millions put out of work, wondering how they'll keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.  There is the frightening loss of health--once vibrant people now tethered to machines to help them breathe, fighting the virus to return to health.

And then there are the lesser losses. I don't believe that all losses are equivalent, but I do think that they are all valid. There is the loss of freedom to move about, the loss of the freedom of assembly.  There is the loss of milestones, weddings postponed, funerals missed, graduations on hold. Someone said that this feeling we all have-this malaise that we battle against if we are fortunate to enough not to have to fight those larger battles that eclipse everything else--is grief. We are grieving the loss of life as we knew it.  We are mourning what I now call, with a wry smile, The Time Before.

I took this photo of my classroom white board today when I had to stop by the school to pass on a laptop computer to a child who needed it. It's left the way it was on March 12th, our last day in the classroom. Note the hopeful date of return that my students' put on the board then: March 16 or March 31. But it was not to be.

I'm grieving on behalf of my eighth graders (and myself, honestly) who had their final year at Columbus Adventist Academy unceremoniously snatched away from them. And they were having such a great time too. Most of my 8th graders can't wait to get away from CAA and move on to the exciting world of high school. This class was in no hurry for the year to end. They were savoring and treasuring every moment of their school year.  More than most classes, these kids deserved to have their whole year. There's a litany of 8th grade end-of-the-year traditions that my class will likely miss out on: the Day of Responsibility where they get to trade their school uniforms for professional dress and set their own schedule, the traditional photo shoot on the last Monday of the school year, the early end to the academic year and the days of graduation practice leading up to the graduation day itself. My heart hurts so much for them because they would have enjoyed all of those traditions so much. It saddens me that I can't give that to them.  And then there's the class trip. . .

Another photo of my room, taken today. You can see the special desks with the comfy office chairs for the class president and class treasurer at the back of the room near the cabinet where they kept their snacks for fundraisers.

What about Hawaii? The CAA 8th grade class blasted through all previous class fundraising records, both on a whole-class and individual level. We've had such a beautiful outpouring of support by our community. By the time their year came to a sudden end they had banked thousands of dollars and were well on their way to achieving what seemed impossible at the start of the year--an 8th grade class trip for all 23 of them and eight chaperones to the paradise of Hawaii. And now? We have a tentative plan for a rescheduled trip from July 21 to 26 (right after a rescheduled graduation ceremony on Sunday, July 19).  That's the latest possible time we can take the trip before many of them begin their freshman year of high school. But right now, that 's all it is. An idea. We have no clue whether we'll actually be able to take the trip then.  Even if the travel restrictions and  advisories are lifted, the virus has been contained, and it is safe to go I fear we won't have the whole class. I worry that there will be parents who remain anxious despite reassurances from public officials, who conclude that it's just too late and feels too risky.  And even if we have the support of all the families, how many will we lose because there just isn't enough time to raise the remaining funds? Sure we raised thousands, but we needed to keep doing that. Our fundraising came to an abrupt halt right along with their school year. And how difficult will it be to fund raise while millions are unemployed and the economy is in shambles? What seemed like a long shot at the beginning of the year feels even longer now. I haven't given up. I can't. Not yet.  But there's a part of me that's in mourning already.

I don't have a bright side to all that has been lost from the unfathomable to the irreplaceable, big and small. Sometimes it's okay to just sit and grieve whatever paradise we might have lost. For now, I'm allowing the loss to be what it is.

Here's the numbers: I predicted 486,168 cases in the United States by today. The actual number is 463,394, an increase of 27%. I predicted 16,825 deaths and I only missed the mark by 137, with the actual death toll at 16,688, an increase of 56%. Assuming the rate stays the same (which it shouldn't), I would predict the total number of cases to rise to 588,510 by Easter Sunday and our deaths will reach 26,033.  These losses are staggering and it's important not to let the numbers numb us to the reality everyone represents a hole in an American family.

At the state level:
Florida: The number of cases rose 23% to 16,819, 0.08% of the population. The number of deaths rose 46% to 370, a rate of 2%. Florida remains in the top ten hardest hit states that it is currently at it's best standing since I began keeping track, at 8th place.
Ohio: The number of cases rose 24% to 5,512, 0.05% of the population. The number of deaths rose 50% to 213, a rate of 3.9%. Ohio is currently 17th in the nation for number cases.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 36% to 594, 0.03% of the total population of the state. The number of deaths rose 67% to 15, a rate of 2.5%. Nebraska has inched its way up out of the bottom ten is now 37th in the nation.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Just the Numbers

Too tired tonight to do much else besides review the numbers from the past four days.

The rate of new COVID-19 cases continues to slow. We saw an increase of 33% to a total of 365,525 cases as of this evening. This is 53,000 fewer cases than I predicted. Likewise the increase in deaths has slowed as well. We saw an increase of 54% to 10,925, a good 2000 less than I predicted (though still more than another month's worth of car accident deaths). My new prediction is that by Thursday, April 9 we will have 486,148 cases and 16,825 deaths.

And now to my benchmark states:
Florida: Cases match the national percent increase of 33% to 13,621, 0.06% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 253, a rate of 2%.
Ohio: Cases increase 34% to 4,450, 0.04% of the population. Deaths increase 56% to 142, a rate of 3.1%
Nebraska: Cases increase 48% to 438, still around 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 9, rate of 2%.

Dispatch from Coronaville: The Right Way to Be Wrong

I've been wrong more than I've been right in my predictions regarding the spread and death rate of coronavirus.  Thank goodness. Being right isn't everything and in cases like this you want to be wrong.  I've heard people expressing doubts about the seriousness of the coronavirus as various predictions of the experts turn out not to have reached the stratospheric heights predicted (though they are certainly bad enough). It's a bit irrational, but quite common for people to observe that we've taken all these draconian measures and then the numbers didn't turn out to be high as they experts predicted, so what was the point of it all. It seems to escape us that perhaps the numbers aren't as high as the experts predicted precisely because of the measures we've taken. The only way you can reasonably argue that the measures we've taken were unnecessary is if we look at countries or states that have taken no restrictive measures and yet have the same rate of viral infection and deaths as those that did.  But to say, "Look we took all these measures and nothing is happening!"  Isn't that kind of the point?

You still hear people going on about the flu and car crashes. So many people die from these mundane events every year yet you don't see the world going into a panic, the argument goes.  I decided to look into these causes of death and what I found surprised me. I truly expected that I'd find that millions die from the flu each year. But in the entire 2018-2019 flu season only 34,200 people died of the flu. Meanwhile in the six weeks between February 19 and April, over 50,000 people died of the coronavirus. So yeah, I'm not sure at all that this "just the flu."

Car accidents are serious killers on the other hand. 1.35 million people die in car wrecks every year--that's 3,700 people every single day. In the United States 38,000 people die each year--approximately 3,166 every month. But check this: On February 28, the first person in the United States died of COVID-19. Just over a month later on March 31, the death toll stood at 3,900, surpassing the typical month of car accident deaths, and the death rate is still rising.  This not the same as car accidents. And another thing about car accidents and the flu. When was the last time you heard about some U.S. hospitals stretched to the breaking point by these things. Do they roll up the makeshift morgues and expand hospital capacity every year during flu season?  And with all those car wrecks why isn't our medical system in a constant state of crisis?

So the experts models didn't pan out as predicted. When folks say as a result that we should no longer trust the experts, who exactly does that leave?  When we say "don't trust the experts" we are saying "don't trust the people who have the most knowledge about a given topic." These "experts" with their "training" and "experience" and "knowledge."  Can't trust them. But if not them, then who? They may be wrong, but they are a lot more right than those of who don't have their expertise.

I'm no expert and I'm wrong yet again, but here are my numbers from the past four days:
I predicted we'd see a total of 284,507 cases and 7,847 deaths in the United States. Wrong, but in the right way (though I wish I was a little more wrong. This is the closest I've been since I started making predictions). We have 275,288 cases. That's an increase of 52%, a 1% tick downward since Tuesday. I predicted 7,847 deaths. The actual number of deaths is 7,094, an increase of somewhere between 74% and 82% (there was a discrepancy in the New York Times death count between late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the morning reports revising the total deaths down by a 100 or so. I guess they made a mistake, but that's not enough for me to deem the source unreliable). Either way it represents a slowing of the rate of increase, which is good. On the other hand, we just had a month's worth of car accident deaths in just four days. That is not good. My predictions for the next four days. By Monday, April 6 we should see 418,438 cases and 12,911 deaths in the U.S. I truly hope to be wrong again. But I'm coming to the horrific realization that I'm not near wrong enough. Even with a slowing rate of increase these numbers are getting so huge that even lower percent increases represent devastating numbers of people.

Now to the states:
Florida: Cases increase 52% to 10,260, 0.05% of the population. Deaths increase 99% to 169, a rate of 1.7%. One of those 10,260 is someone we knew from college who is currently in the ICU.
Ohio: Cases increase 51% to 3,313, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 65% to 91, a rate of 2.7%. Glad to see our percent of increase in cases and deaths has fallen over the last four days.
Nebraska: Cases increase 53% to 296, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 6, a rate of 2%.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Too Much Home Work

Yesterday I ended the day feeling really depressed. At first I wasn't sure why. The day had been very productive and I thought I'd used my time wisely. But then I realized: I had spent eleven and a half hours working without a break, beginning at 9:00 AM until 8:30 PM.  And even after a late supper at 8:30 I continued to respond to work-related emails, text messages, and chats until after 10 PM.  No one wonder I ended the day feeling frazzled!

When school first shut down I imagined that I'd have lots of time to read, watch movies, and  putter around the house. That has not been my story.  I didn't anticipate I'd be as busy (if not busier) than I had been when I went to school every day. Granted, I do like the flexibility of my day, working from home, but what I'm finding is that it makes me more flexible to do more work.  Maintaining work-life balance is actually more important (and more difficult) now that I'm at home.

Today went better, I have to say, but I still found I had to place limits on myself to prevent work from taking over. For example, I didn't eat a hearty breakfast this morning (frozen waffles with mixed berries and whipped cream,and a glass of orange juice), but my Zoom and Google Hangout meetings with my students begin at noon and run until 4 PM. For the first half of my meetings I was starving! Clearly a solid, healthy breakfast is a must. I finally got a break when my Algebra I meeting ended a little early and I had time catch a quick lunch. However, I had to make a conscious decision to leave my phone upstairs in my the guest bedroom/office so I'd have a break from the never ending chimes of notifications. I also made it a goal to stop work at 4 PM every day.  I got pretty close, finishing up around 4:15 and heading out for satisfying 45 minute run. Granted I do plan to go back tonight and prep my daily emails, but I still feel I'm doing better. It's also 11:32 PM and I have not gone to bed yet. I did spend some time watching Jojo Rabbit while folding clothes so that has to count for something.

My goal is to get up by seven every morning, have devotions and breakfast and be ready to start working by 8:30.  My mornings will be devoted to lesson prep (making YouTube instructional videos and planning activities) and grading. Class time will begin at noon until 4 PM.  And 4 PM on will be time for me and for my family. Hopefully I'll be in bed by 11 every night. Just not tonight.

The Numbers so far: There definitely appears to be a pattern here. The rate of infections is increasing but the rate at which it is increasing is slowing. Meanwhile the death rate continues to hold just below my predictions. I expected the number of infections to stand at 221,530. Instead we have 187,176.  The deaths are 4,087, now the third highest in the world and only just shy of my prediction of 4,656.  Here's the new numbers I project we'll see by Friday night: With a percent increase of 53%,  284,507 cases and deaths with an increase of 92% (also below 100% for the first time) at 7,847. We are still climbing the peak, but it's taking us longer to get there.

And my three states:
Florida: Infections increase 67% to 6,741, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 52% to 85, the same rate of 1.4%
Ohio: Infections increase 56% to 2,199, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 120% to 55, a rate of 2.5%. Not good.
Nebraska:  Infections increase 60% to 193, 0.01% of the population. Deaths increase 100% to 4,  a rate of 2%.

I have to say Florida, despite it's reputation and fifth highest infection rate in the nation is not looking too shabby. Yes,it has the highest percent increase in infections but it's got the lowest death rate and the lowest percent increase in deaths--by a significant percentage! While Ohio may be flattening the curve, of the three, Ohio is not the state you want to be in if you test positive.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Blessings

Dr. Amy Acton, director the Ohio Health Department, and our governor Mike DeWine
Photo Credit: TNS

I did not vote for our governor, Mike DeWine. But I sure am a fan now. I really feel grateful for his handling of the Coronavirus crisis in our state.  Every day he gives a press briefing on COVID-19, and the few snatches I've managed to catch left me very impressed. Of course, he's known across the country for being one of the governors taking action early on--a gold standard if  you will,  of response to the virus. I appreciate that, and that he's holding the line, sticking with the science no matter which way the national winds are blowing.  He's demonstrated true leadership throughout this---he is serious, in-charge, decisive, clear.  But he's also compassionate and sensitive to the trauma so many in our state are going through--some from the Coronavirus itself, so many more facing deeply trying circumstances as they've watched their livelihoods evaporate overnight.And I love that Governor DeWine is a Republican, proving that our leaders' responses to things don't always to fall along "party lines."   Listening to his briefs is always encouraging, hopeful, and inspiring even when he's delivering sobering news or difficult directives.  Watching him and our state health department director Dr. Amy Acton always leaves me feeling less anxious.

Speaking of Dr. Acton, she provided another blessing in today's press briefing where she continued to emphasize that we are "flattening the curve" here in Ohio. It's great to know that the actions we are taking are making a difference, that we pushing out the point of peak infection, buying our healthcare heroes more time, and ensuring that our healthcare system won't be overwhelmed. I've included a link to her presentation this afternoon (it's about 10  minutes along).  Like our governor, she has a soothing, encouraging demeanor and I like that she-like him-ended on a personal note.

Another blessing--and they're everywhere when you start to look--is that my old friend Grant Graves appears to have brought his considerable gifts back to the public and we are all better for it. God has gifted Grant with a unique insight into spiritual things. He has an ability to take the simplest truths and put just a little spin on them, like a elite volleyball player's serve that turns what seems like a plain truth into a killer insight that gets right to the heart of things.  Grant has recently started posting short YouTube devotionals, and the first one I saw (number 6 in his series actually) was an ace!  These days of lockdown have their ups and downs.  Some days I feel really great, and others kind of depressed.  Grant reminded me today that when I'm feeling down, to think about what it is I feel in need of and try to provide that for same thing for someone else.

And now to the numbers, Once again my numbers were too high on the new cases, while my predictions for deaths were very, very close to reality. Based on the same or higher rate of increase that we saw in the four days prior to my last entry I expected 146, 277 cases reported and 2,274 deaths. Instead we have 123,072 cases and 2,126 deaths.  This represents a rate of infection below 100% for the first time since I started doing these numbers.  While the new infections are still increasing exponentially, the rate does appear to be slowing. Could it be that we, as a nation, are also succeeding at squashing the curve?  Based on the current rate, I would expect 221,530 cases by Tuesday evening, March 31 and 4,656 deaths.

I'm adding some new numbers to my every four days review. I'd like to compare three states: Florida, a state that is viewed by many as taking a rather slapdash approach to this pandemic; Ohio, a state that has been lauded as a leader in tackling this thing head on, and Nebraska, a state representative of those near the bottom rungs of this epidemic.  Here's our baseline:
Florida: Population of 21.9 million, 4,038 cases representing 0.02% of the population, with 56 deaths, a rate of 1.4% (i.e. not just the flu)
Ohio: Population of 11.7 million, 1,406 cases representing 0.01% of the population, with 25 deaths, a rate of 1.8%
Nebraska: Population of 1.95 million, 121 cases representing 0.006% of the population, with 2 deaths, a rate of 1.7%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Leading the Way (In All the Wrong Ways)

One prediction was off by quite a bit, the other pretty darn close. I predicted on Monday morning that by  tonight we'd have 102,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19  and just over 1000 deaths.  Well, it turns out that instead of more than tripling our numbers, we have slightly more than doubled the rate of infection at 68,354 people.  What surprised me though was the death toll: 972 people have lost to their live to the virus, just 60 shy of my prediction. That can't be good news. The infection rate is not as quick as I thought but the death rate appears to be on track.  At least it wasn't over what I predicted. I just thought if I was going to be off on anything, it would be the death rate.

I estimate, adjusting to account for the data for past four days data, that by Saturday, March 28 we will be at 146,277 infections and will have lost 2,274 people. That just seems crazy to me. This whole thing feels unreal.  And what I'm hoping is that when I return for another entry Saturday evening it will turn out that I was a being an alarmist.

The United States has been racing to the top of the charts.  We are now just 6000 cases away from overtaking Iran for the number two spot, and a mere 13,000 cases from overtaking China. Meanwhile we are rapidly pulling away from Spain who is now a good 20,000 cases behind us. Thankfully our death rate is lower than all of those countries. But we still have the 6th highest death rate globally.  With President Trump talking about "re-opening for business" by Easter, I am not at all confident that this is going to go well for our country.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Corona Connections

The Yip Family Gathering, Sunday, March 22, 2020.  This was such a joy and left me wanting more. Picture top to bottom, left to right are Uncle Robert (my mom's brother), Cousin Raymond (mom's cousin, son of her Uncle Rodrick), Mom, my brother Vince, me, my cousin Landon, Uncle Roland (my mom's brother), Aunt Coleen, cousin Bev (my mom's cousin, daughter of her Uncle Celian), my cousin Nicole (daughter of Uncle Roland), cousin Cherie (cousin of mom, daughter of Uncle Rodrick), and cousin Linda (cousin of mom, daughter of Uncle Rodrick). Missing is cousin DeeAnne (cousin of mom, daughter of her Aunt Yvonne) who was there but didn't have her camera up, my sister Dawn who joined later, cousin Dolly and her mother Margaret (spouse of Uncle Rodrick), and Colin and his mother Dora (spouse of Uncle Celian) who joined us by phone.  Whew! I hope I got that all right! Remarkably with only one days notice everyone who could come did come. I guess with the COVID-19 lockdown most of us don't have much to do!

We've really been fortunate so far. No one in our family is sick or been in contact with someone who is sick. We've got salaried paychecks that haven't been impacted by having to work remotely. We actually can stay home instead of having to work in risky situations like many of my my friends in the front line healthcare professions. In addition there has been an unexpected blessing, which is the focus of my blog today.

But first, a look at the numbers. On Thursday, March 19 I predicted that by yesterday, Sunday, March 22, we should have 26,300 cases of the Coronavirus here in the United States, and 433 deaths. It seemed outrageous at the time to add 16,000 cases in just 3 days.  But by Sunday evening we had over 32,000 cases--over my projection, and 416 deaths, just barely under.  With a higher percent increase of 220% my new projection for Wednesday, March 25 is that we will have 102,400 cases and will have surpassed China's total numbers since the start of the outbreak. Deaths will stand at 1,032. If, in fact ,the increased infection numbers are due largely to wider testing availability hopefully the deaths will be lower.

South Korea is interesting to watch.  I look at the New York Times Coranavirus Outbreak maps for the world and the United States at least twice a day. They are pretty accurate (although sometimes our local newspaper, the Columbus Dispatch has more accurate numbers for Ohio. But the NYT always catches up eventually).  I've noted that South Korea is increasing at a much slower rate than most other countries.  Their infections have been in the 8,000's for so long now and their death rate remains stubbornly low too.  Clearly they are doing something right--something we are not doing. I've heard that the key to their success at managing the outbreak has been widespread testing of everyone (not just those that are symptomatic) and among other things, a commitment to self-quarantining as means of protecting others as opposed to protecting oneself.  Here in the United States widespread testing doesn't even seem to be possible, and it seems to me our focus has been "how can I protect myself from the virus"  as opposed to "let me social distance for the sake of others". It's a small but important distinction.

 A Twinge of Fear. Up until yesterday I've really not been fearful of the virus itself. I take all the precautions recommended by the CDC and so on, but I've felt pretty certain that I won't get the virus and if I do that I'll survive it.  But then, yesterday COVID-19 entered my six degrees of separation.  A man by the name of Michael Bane posted a Facebook account of his horrifying struggle with the virus.  He went to Andrews University and many of my friends, including my cousin know him well. The combination of that closeness and the hair-raising ordeal he's been through made it all feel so  much more real to me.  And for the first time I felt a twinge--just a twinge-of fear of the virus itself.

Connections. But my main focus of this blog is not the numbers or the fear. It's relationships.  One of the unexpected blessings of this global ordeal has been the opportunity to reconnect with people I love, connect on a deeper level with others, and connect for the first time with still others.

Last night my Uncle Robert hosted a virtual gathering via GoToMeeting of all of the offspring of my grandmother and her three siblings.  It was a gathering of the Yip family, the Chinese side of our family.  Of course mom, and my uncles I knew very well, but most of the rest their cousins I had only met once or twice years ago and many I had never met at all. It was really amazing to see these strangers who look nothing like me and realize that they are all my family. It reminded me a lot of the family reunion on my dad's side back in 2017.  They all seemed like such great people--funny, kind, gentle folk.  Grandma and all of her siblings have passed away, but  Dora and Margaret,the spouses of her two brothers joined us by phone and it was so nice to hear their precious voices. At least one of my mother's cousins, DeeAnne, I feel like I've gotten to know and appreciate through our Facebook friendship. I've seen photos but never met her and it was cool to meet her and her husband virtually. It was one step closer to an in person meeting.  I felt a strong desire to get to know these people better, and I think my only sadness was that with the various technical difficulties--feedback from unmuted mics, some not being able to see all the participants on the screen--we didn't get to talk really that much.  I didn't have much to say myself but I wanted to hear stories. I wanted to hear about Uncle Roddy, Uncle Celian, Auntie Yvonne and of course Grandma. I wanted to know their journey and get to know the people who came from them.  When the gathering ended, I was grateful but also wanting more.  I'd like to do it again and hopefully get more stories.

Also this past Sabbath, we had our first official meeting of the "First Family SDA Church".  Basically it was Mom, Vince, Dawn & Jim and their kids, Uncle Roland and Aunt Colleen, Nicole, and our family getting together via Google Hangout to have church together.  It took us about an hour to get the technical kinks worked out, but once we did we had a really nice time of prayer, praise, and spiritual encouragement. Uncle Roland even played a guitar piece for special music and I had a story for the kids.  After the "service" was over everyone hung around to "fellowship" for another hour or so.  Later that evening we got together for "AY" where our boys presented a praise dance/juggling routine they came up with.  It's strange how it took being cut off from the world to reconnect with family that I normally wouldn't talk to except at Sabbath lunch during our summer or Christmas Florida visits. Next week Barbara's mom will be attending as well. Hit me up if you'd like to join us!

My Corona Classroom. Two laptops, my work computer for virtual instruction with my students and the home computer for my boys to work on. Papers to grade from pre-lockdown days spread out  on the bed along with textbooks and other resources.  At least I don't have to decorate. I may be the only person physically in the room, but every school day it's filled with virtual chatter, laughter, learning and real love.

Last, but not least are the current connections deepened over broadband.  Realizing that I may not teach my 8th graders in a real-world classroom again has been heartbreaking.  We are determined to have some sort of graduation for them--though when and how that will happen we can't say. And as for their class trip--this epic journey to Hawaii--a trip that they've already raised many thousands of dollars for, we are hoping to postpone to July.  But, my heart has been so touched by my students interactions online. Google Hangouts has been our central form of communication. Every morning I'd pop on to the Hangout to see them chatting away, making jokes and regularly expressing affection for each other.  I haven't had a such a close-knit class in a very long time and it is a beautiful thing to see and be a part of. Every afternoon we'd have our video hangouts to grade assignments and take questions on anything they needed help with. It was such a blessing to see them in their own environments--their safe places, to hear their voices. Ironically, even though we are physically apart, I feel like I've gotten to know them so much better, and I've found them to be even more amazing than I realized.  This week we are on our previously scheduled "spring break" so there's no new work to assign and the chatter on Hangouts is much less.  But to be honest--I can't wait to "see" them all again next week when online school resumes.

Dispatch from Coronaville

My friend Heather posted this meme and I just had to steal it. It was just the perfect intro to this post.

This was  originally going to be just a quick Facebook post, but then I thought that with the unbelievable changes that have consumed the world as we know it thanks to a mindlessly replicating virus, I might want this in my blog officially, for the Record.

A couple of miscellaneous thoughts a week after our life suddenly turned upside down:

First some numbers.  I'm just a middle school math teacher--not a statistician, not an epidemiologist, but I decided to play around with some numbers using some of the concepts I'd just been teaching my 7th grade class:
In the past four days we've seen a 163% increase in the number of people infected with the coronavirus.  If the number of cases increase at a constant rate we should be be at 26,300 cases by Sunday.  Likewise there should 433 deaths by Sunday. Of course the increase has been exponential not constant so far, so this should be conservative projection.  I will revisit these numbers on Sunday to see how far off I was.  Right now, it feels like nah, there's no way those numbers will be that high by Sunday. Could be I live in Denial, Ohio. We'll see.

Second a few thoughts on the the argument that these extreme measures to flatten the curve aren't worth the damage to the economy given the relatively few number of people that will die as percentage of the population as a whole. I don't find that argument compelling when it's predicated on the assumption that won't be me or anyone I love.  It would be a more intellectually compelling argument to say "even if it's me--I mean statistically it's not likely--but even if it's me that contract the virus and dies from it, the nation is better off as a whole and I'm willing to take one for the team.  Or: "Even if it's my mother-highly unlikely but still--I'm willing to sacrifice her because the vast majority of Americans will be fine."  Perhaps Rush Limbaugh could lead this charge--he is after all immunocompromised himself--so he'd make a great poster boy for this national movement of self-sacrifice for the sake of our great nation.  But of course that won't happen.  We always think it won't happen to us. And we are almost always right.  Except for when we are not.

I am worried about the economy. I can't imagine what it must be like to watch your income just evaporate overnight like that. And that is the story for so many people in this country.  I mean can we really just stop the economy like this? I just don't see how it's sustainable, and I suspect the fallout will be far greater than we imagine.

I would like to know more about the swine flu pandemic of 2009.  Why is this so different? Apparently a lot of people died--I guess it was a big deal--but it's barely a blip on my radar and certainly there was no world wide lock down. I suspect it's because the curve was "flatter" that people got infected over a longer period of time, allowing the medical system to cope more or less. But I really don't know.  If anyone has some good information on this shoot me a link (and don't send me any conspiracy theories. I don't believe in them. The reasons for that are for another blog entry).  I think when something "obvious" to me isn't obvious to the the experts I think it's a mistake to assume that they are the ones who are wrong.

Just a few thoughts from Coronaville.

What's the Scratch?

Since August  of last year I've been a staff writer for The Scratch, an online news source for Seventh-day Adventists.  The weekly news brief was founded by young, active-in-the-church Adventists Ryan Becker and Kevin Christensen and features writers across generations from Baby Boomers to Gen X to Millenials to Gen Z.  I suppose you could argue that as a writer for the Scratch I'm a little biased when I say that I think this is a vital resource for SDA church members.  There are already so many Adventist media outlets from official outlets like the Adventist Review to independent outfits like Spectrum.  What could a new outlet possibly bring to the table that's not already there?

I think The Scratch has three elements that it make essential to every member that wants to know what's going on in their church.

First, The Scratch is unbiased.  Getting unbiased information about what's going on in the world church is a tricky proposition.  Virtually all of the church-sanctioned media outlets are more about public relations or devotions than news.  This is not a criticism. I think it's entirely appropriate that the Adventist Review serve as source of inspiration and information about what great things are happening in the church. But if there are things that aren't going so well in the church; when there are stories that might not make the church look so good you're not going to find them in the Review or any of the union publications like the Visitor or Southern Tidings.  On the other hand Spectrum magazine and others ranging across the conservative to liberal spectrum (no pun intended) exist to cast a critical eye on the church proper.  They serve an important purpose in challenging members to think critically and evaluate carefully what is going on in the church.  But what if you just want to know what's going on in the church without  PR puffery or jaundiced critique? That's where The Scratch comes in. Our editors have made it clear that every piece we submit should stick to just the facts and avoid editorializing.  The closest you'll get to personal opinion is in the "Word on the Street" segment at the end of our "Need to Know" brief where we''ll summarize what people are saying from all sides of the issue.

Second, The Scratch is short.  This blog entry is already longer than an entire Scratch News Brief. The Scratch is a news brief not a news magazine. We know you're busy and in The Scratch you'll find a quick and reliable way to know what's happening now in the Seventh-day Adventist Church in five minutes or less.  If you have the time and want to know more or dig deeper, every Scratch article includes links to our sources where you can explore the issue in greater depth.  Each weekly news brief includes one longer "Need to Know" article and two to three one paragraph "Ought to Know" briefs.  It's all there on one page.  There may be other independent outlets like Adventist Today that strive to provide unvarnished hard news about the Adventist church, but none that I know of do it as concisely as the Scratch does.

Third, The Scratch is current.  Because The Scratch releases a news brief every Friday (so that you show up for church Sabbath morning fully in the know), the latest news is always included. A monthly release would mean by the time you get the news it's no longer the latest, it's just late.

So there you have it.  For the latest, unbiased news on the Adventist church in five minutes or less make The Scratch part of your routine. You can link to the site above and then, if you'd like, sign up to get The Scratch brief delivered to your inbox.