Dispatch from Coronaville: Blessings

Dr. Amy Acton, director the Ohio Health Department, and our governor Mike DeWine
Photo Credit: TNS

I did not vote for our governor, Mike DeWine. But I sure am a fan now. I really feel grateful for his handling of the Coronavirus crisis in our state.  Every day he gives a press briefing on COVID-19, and the few snatches I've managed to catch left me very impressed. Of course, he's known across the country for being one of the governors taking action early on--a gold standard if  you will,  of response to the virus. I appreciate that, and that he's holding the line, sticking with the science no matter which way the national winds are blowing.  He's demonstrated true leadership throughout this---he is serious, in-charge, decisive, clear.  But he's also compassionate and sensitive to the trauma so many in our state are going through--some from the Coronavirus itself, so many more facing deeply trying circumstances as they've watched their livelihoods evaporate overnight.And I love that Governor DeWine is a Republican, proving that our leaders' responses to things don't always to fall along "party lines."   Listening to his briefs is always encouraging, hopeful, and inspiring even when he's delivering sobering news or difficult directives.  Watching him and our state health department director Dr. Amy Acton always leaves me feeling less anxious.

Speaking of Dr. Acton, she provided another blessing in today's press briefing where she continued to emphasize that we are "flattening the curve" here in Ohio. It's great to know that the actions we are taking are making a difference, that we pushing out the point of peak infection, buying our healthcare heroes more time, and ensuring that our healthcare system won't be overwhelmed. I've included a link to her presentation this afternoon (it's about 10  minutes along).  Like our governor, she has a soothing, encouraging demeanor and I like that she-like him-ended on a personal note.

Another blessing--and they're everywhere when you start to look--is that my old friend Grant Graves appears to have brought his considerable gifts back to the public and we are all better for it. God has gifted Grant with a unique insight into spiritual things. He has an ability to take the simplest truths and put just a little spin on them, like a elite volleyball player's serve that turns what seems like a plain truth into a killer insight that gets right to the heart of things.  Grant has recently started posting short YouTube devotionals, and the first one I saw (number 6 in his series actually) was an ace!  These days of lockdown have their ups and downs.  Some days I feel really great, and others kind of depressed.  Grant reminded me today that when I'm feeling down, to think about what it is I feel in need of and try to provide that for same thing for someone else.

And now to the numbers, Once again my numbers were too high on the new cases, while my predictions for deaths were very, very close to reality. Based on the same or higher rate of increase that we saw in the four days prior to my last entry I expected 146, 277 cases reported and 2,274 deaths. Instead we have 123,072 cases and 2,126 deaths.  This represents a rate of infection below 100% for the first time since I started doing these numbers.  While the new infections are still increasing exponentially, the rate does appear to be slowing. Could it be that we, as a nation, are also succeeding at squashing the curve?  Based on the current rate, I would expect 221,530 cases by Tuesday evening, March 31 and 4,656 deaths.

I'm adding some new numbers to my every four days review. I'd like to compare three states: Florida, a state that is viewed by many as taking a rather slapdash approach to this pandemic; Ohio, a state that has been lauded as a leader in tackling this thing head on, and Nebraska, a state representative of those near the bottom rungs of this epidemic.  Here's our baseline:
Florida: Population of 21.9 million, 4,038 cases representing 0.02% of the population, with 56 deaths, a rate of 1.4% (i.e. not just the flu)
Ohio: Population of 11.7 million, 1,406 cases representing 0.01% of the population, with 25 deaths, a rate of 1.8%
Nebraska: Population of 1.95 million, 121 cases representing 0.006% of the population, with 2 deaths, a rate of 1.7%