One prediction was off by quite a bit, the other pretty darn close. I predicted on Monday morning that by tonight we'd have 102,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and just over 1000 deaths. Well, it turns out that instead of more than tripling our numbers, we have slightly more than doubled the rate of infection at 68,354 people. What surprised me though was the death toll: 972 people have lost to their live to the virus, just 60 shy of my prediction. That can't be good news. The infection rate is not as quick as I thought but the death rate appears to be on track. At least it wasn't over what I predicted. I just thought if I was going to be off on anything, it would be the death rate.
I estimate, adjusting to account for the data for past four days data, that by Saturday, March 28 we will be at 146,277 infections and will have lost 2,274 people. That just seems crazy to me. This whole thing feels unreal. And what I'm hoping is that when I return for another entry Saturday evening it will turn out that I was a being an alarmist.
The United States has been racing to the top of the charts. We are now just 6000 cases away from overtaking Iran for the number two spot, and a mere 13,000 cases from overtaking China. Meanwhile we are rapidly pulling away from Spain who is now a good 20,000 cases behind us. Thankfully our death rate is lower than all of those countries. But we still have the 6th highest death rate globally. With President Trump talking about "re-opening for business" by Easter, I am not at all confident that this is going to go well for our country.
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