First a look at the nation as a whole. As I predicted on Monday we surpassed the million mark for those infected, with a total of 1,068,557 cases. At a 9% rate of increase, not quite as high predicted but also not too far off either, only about 6000 shy of my projection. As for deaths, I was wrong again but for the first time in weeks--in the wrong direction. I thought we'd be at 55,000 deaths representing a 10% increase. Instead we've lost a total of 62,708 folks to this disease, a 25% increase and some 7,000 more than I expected. I suppose this could be "catch-up" of people who've been languishing in the hospital for a few weeks finally giving up the ghost. But that's hardly cause for celebration.
Overall the picture just doesn't look to me like this thing is quite wrapped up. And yet that's the way we are acting. And I do get it in a way. My heart tells me it's time to be done with this quarantine. I'm tired of staying at home. My students are struggling with depression. It just feels like this should be over. But a hamburger also feels like just what my body needs. And that isn't necessarily so. The reality on the ground just does not sync with what our feelings tell us should be happening. But as a nation that's the way we are headed.
We are desperate for this thing to just go away. People I respect a great deal are shopping around old theories that it's all a hoax. Any YouTube video put out by anybody with an MD after the name is trumpeted as "proof." We are desperate and in our desperation I fear we are ignoring reality. My first prediction is coming true. We are opening up, ready or not. I'm really looking forward to the end of all this whining from protest crowd. Stop crying, geez. You'll get your way. Just chill. But I don't think it will look like you think it will. To riff on a popular quote these days: "Those who would give the health of the country for the sake of a strong economy will end up with neither health nor a strong economy." That's the second part of my prediction and by May's end we will see whether it holds up as well.
Here's my predictions for the next three days. By Sunday, May 3 I predict 1,164,727 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States and 78,385 deaths (hopefully I will be way over in my prediction, but my practice is always to use the rate of increase for the previous 3 days and in this case it was 25%)
Here's those glum graphs:
Both Florida and Ohio have bounced back up in the number of new cases. Nebraska has dipped slightly.
Florida: 33,683 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Ohio:18,027 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Nebraska: 3,876 total cases, 0.2% of the population. Nebraska seems to be having a "corona moment." Despite the numerically lower figures, Nebraska has a lot fewer people than Florida and Ohio, and that percentage of the population known to be infected is telling. For contrast note that the percentage of the U.S. population known to have been infected is in the neighborhood of 0.3%.
The deaths are truly discouraging. When I started these graphs I was confident that we were on the downhill side of this more or less and I did not expect we see more than 180 deaths over a three-day period from any of the states I'm monitoring. Unfortunately I was wrong. Both Florida and Ohio went off the charts since Monday. Florida had 193 new deaths and Ohio was even worse with 247 deaths! Nebraska spiked up too with 12 deaths. I'm really hoping we'll see these numbers fall back into my chart by Sunday. If they don't I will reluctantly add another sheet to my graph.
Florida: 1,266 total deaths, a rate of 3.8%
Ohio: 975 total deaths, a rate of 5.4%
Nebraska: 68 total deaths, a rate of 1.8%
"Desperation is a tender trap, it gets you every time."
--U2 "So Cruel"
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