I've been wrong more than I've been right in my predictions regarding the spread and death rate of coronavirus. Thank goodness. Being right isn't everything and in cases like this you want to be wrong. I've heard people expressing doubts about the seriousness of the coronavirus as various predictions of the experts turn out not to have reached the stratospheric heights predicted (though they are certainly bad enough). It's a bit irrational, but quite common for people to observe that we've taken all these draconian measures and then the numbers didn't turn out to be high as they experts predicted, so what was the point of it all. It seems to escape us that perhaps the numbers aren't as high as the experts predicted precisely because of the measures we've taken. The only way you can reasonably argue that the measures we've taken were unnecessary is if we look at countries or states that have taken no restrictive measures and yet have the same rate of viral infection and deaths as those that did. But to say, "Look we took all these measures and nothing is happening!" Isn't that kind of the point?
You still hear people going on about the flu and car crashes. So many people die from these mundane events every year yet you don't see the world going into a panic, the argument goes. I decided to look into these causes of death and what I found surprised me. I truly expected that I'd find that millions die from the flu each year. But in the entire 2018-2019 flu season only 34,200 people died of the flu. Meanwhile in the six weeks between February 19 and April, over 50,000 people died of the coronavirus. So yeah, I'm not sure at all that this "just the flu."
Car accidents are serious killers on the other hand. 1.35 million people die in car wrecks every year--that's 3,700 people every single day. In the United States 38,000 people die each year--approximately 3,166 every month. But check this: On February 28, the first person in the United States died of COVID-19. Just over a month later on March 31, the death toll stood at 3,900, surpassing the typical month of car accident deaths, and the death rate is still rising. This not the same as car accidents. And another thing about car accidents and the flu. When was the last time you heard about some U.S. hospitals stretched to the breaking point by these things. Do they roll up the makeshift morgues and expand hospital capacity every year during flu season? And with all those car wrecks why isn't our medical system in a constant state of crisis?
So the experts models didn't pan out as predicted. When folks say as a result that we should no longer trust the experts, who exactly does that leave? When we say "don't trust the experts" we are saying "don't trust the people who have the most knowledge about a given topic." These "experts" with their "training" and "experience" and "knowledge." Can't trust them. But if not them, then who? They may be wrong, but they are a lot more right than those of who don't have their expertise.
I'm no expert and I'm wrong yet again, but here are my numbers from the past four days:
I predicted we'd see a total of 284,507 cases and 7,847 deaths in the United States. Wrong, but in the right way (though I wish I was a little more wrong. This is the closest I've been since I started making predictions). We have 275,288 cases. That's an increase of 52%, a 1% tick downward since Tuesday. I predicted 7,847 deaths. The actual number of deaths is 7,094, an increase of somewhere between 74% and 82% (there was a discrepancy in the New York Times death count between late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the morning reports revising the total deaths down by a 100 or so. I guess they made a mistake, but that's not enough for me to deem the source unreliable). Either way it represents a slowing of the rate of increase, which is good. On the other hand, we just had a month's worth of car accident deaths in just four days. That is not good. My predictions for the next four days. By Monday, April 6 we should see 418,438 cases and 12,911 deaths in the U.S. I truly hope to be wrong again. But I'm coming to the horrific realization that I'm not near wrong enough. Even with a slowing rate of increase these numbers are getting so huge that even lower percent increases represent devastating numbers of people.
Now to the states:
Florida: Cases increase 52% to 10,260, 0.05% of the population. Deaths increase 99% to 169, a rate of 1.7%. One of those 10,260 is someone we knew from college who is currently in the ICU.
Ohio: Cases increase 51% to 3,313, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 65% to 91, a rate of 2.7%. Glad to see our percent of increase in cases and deaths has fallen over the last four days.
Nebraska: Cases increase 53% to 296, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 6, a rate of 2%.
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