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| These guys thought the media environment was bad then? They had no idea what was coming. Image from the U2 Zoo TV Tour performance in Sydney Australia, 1992 |
In these troubled times who do you believe? How do you know who you can trust? Of course I'm not talking about those near and dear. I'm talking about the information peddlers, the talking heads, the power players, authorities and deciders and experts. How do you know if you're getting good information or an injection of disinfectant?
One unfortunate side effect of the the chaotic media environment we now live in is that many of us have come to the conclusion that it's impossible to know. After all isn't it all spin? Everyone pushing their agenda, bending, twisting and even breaking the truth to fit their own preconceived notions? "Don't believe what you hear, don't believe what you see, if you just close your eyes you can feel the enemy." Those lyrics from the early 90's U2 song "Acrobat" seem to fit the zeitgeist. And so we close our eyes, feel the enemy, and take refuge in whatever feels true, whatever confirms what we already believe.
I don't think it has to be this way. I propose it's still possible to sort out, if not absolute truth, than at least a sense of the right direction. We can use logic, some critical thinking, and a bit of common sense to sort through the chatter. Don't get me wrong, I don't claim to have arrived at some higher plane of understanding. I've been wrong many times over since COVID-19 invaded our shores (indeed I haven't hit the mark once since I began this blog!). But I do feel like I have a toolbox of sorts for deciding what to believe.
One of the tools I apply is to consider how motivated the source is--and what the motivation is. I consider what the source has to gain if what they are saying is true. People who have a lot to gain from a certain outcome are more likely to ignore contradictory evidence and selectively focus on data that reinforces what they want to happen. If on the other hand, the source is presenting information that doesn't bring them any meaningful benefit and in fact might be damaging to them, I'm more likely to believe them.
"It don't really matter to me baby, you believe what you want to believe, you see"
--Tom Petty, "Refugee"
But we don't have to just believe what we want to believe. Taking a moment to step back, consider the source and what they might have to gain, might just be the key not living like well...a refugee.
Here are the numbers: As we enter the weekend, there are a total of 891,957 cases of COVID-19, representing an increase of 11% over the past three days. We are about 9,000 cases shy of what I'd predicted. Deaths increased at a slower rate as well, down four percentage points, to 14%, a total of 45,757 lives lost. I was off by a little less than 2000. Adjusting projections down again I would expect 990,072 total cases by Monday, April 27 and 52,163 deaths.
As for our benchmark states, here's the updated graphs:
Both Florida and Ohio showed a significant decrease in the number of new cases since April 21, with Ohio's new cases plummeting after rising continuously since April 15. Nebraska's new cases continue to increase.
Florida: Total cases 30,166, 0.14% of the population.
Ohio: Total cases 15,169, 0.13% of the population.
Nebraska: Total cases 2,324, 0.12% of the population. Nebraska has been climbing up the list of the states. Once in the bottom ten, then hovering for awhile at 13th or 14th from the bottom, it's now 17th from the bottom.
Unfortunately both Florida and Ohio showed increases in the number of new deaths over the past three days. Nebraska ticked down by 1, from 14 to 13 new deaths during this time period. Not so long ago that was the number of total deaths in the state. Now these are just the new ones.
Florida: Total deaths: 1,011, a rate of 3.4%
Ohio: Total deaths: 690, a rate of 4.5%
Nebraska: Total deaths: 51, a rate of 2.2%
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