Last night just before bed I had a real down moment. They come on me from time to time, these moments of desperation and. . .well, wishing. I just want everything to go back to the way it was. I miss church and movies and school and shopping and being around people. I dread the long, slow slog back to some semblance of normal. Even if my students can have their graduation later this summer will they be allowed to hug each other? I don't want a new normal. I don't want to flatten the curve. I just want to to go back to the way it was in the Time Before.
I know it's just wishful thinking. I think a lot of us are afflicted by this wishful thinking and understandably so. I totally get those protesters out there in state capitals (including our own) across the nation demanding that the U.S. open up right now. It seems like frustration boiling over and I can relate. I think we all feel like saying: "Enough!"
But as understandable as it is, I don't know that just "opening up everything" is the answer. I'm not sure it's even possible to just "go back" on the turn of a dime and I sense that's what the protesters (and I) really are wishing for. What I don't get though, is the sense that the protesters are motivated by a deep understanding of the coronavirus and how to minimize it's impact.
Because here's the thing: We know what needs to be done to open up America safely. We see it being done elsewhere in the world. We need mass testing. To me, that a country like ours with resources we're supposed to have cannot provide a test to any one of it's citizens that wants or needs one should be cause for grave concern. This needs to be fixed. And to me that's what an informed protester should be demanding: "We want tests, we want tests!"
The irony is I honestly believe that the protesters will get their wish. I predict the United States as a whole will start opening back up by the end of month, whether we are really ready or not. Some states may try to hold out, but the political pressure and the demands of the people will be intense. What happens after that? Hopefully all our wishes will come true, the number of cases and deaths will not increase, our hospitals will be able to handle what new cases crop up and we'll look back and say, "Well I guess the experts were wrong. " But then again, if our wish is to open up without seriously considering the consequences, well, you know the saying:
Be careful what you wish for.
The Numbers: The rate of increase continues to decline. I predicted 721, 924 cases, and instead we saw a 13% increase to 717,825. This represents a only a slight slowing in the rate of increase over the previous four days and thus my prediction is only off by about 4,000. The deaths increase 20%, again more slowly than I forecast, to a total of 34,022, about 1200 fewer than I expected. I think what I would like to see is a massive increase in the number positive cases, indicating more widespread testing, while the death rate continues to slow. If we "reopen" without the proper testing capabilities in place, which is what I predict will happen, I predict that we will see big jump in cases (though not as many as we would with wider testing) and a corresponding jump in deaths due to the failure to properly contain the virus--as well as continued damage to the economy instead of the miraculous restoration we wish for. As my friend and frequent covid-opinion sparing partner Rey likes to say: Time will tell. In the meantime here's my projections for the next four days: By Tuesday, April 21 we will see 811,142 total cases and 40,826 deaths.
The States:
Florida: The rate of increase sped up to 14%, reaching 25,261, 0.11% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 25% to 739, a rate of 2.9%, slowing slightly since Wednesday.
Ohio: Cases increased at a quicker rate also, 31% to 10,222, 0.09% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 24% to 451, a rate of 4.4%. Glad to see our rate of death decrease over the past four days. I'd like to see that continue even as our case numbers continue to spiral up.
Nebraska: The rate of increase in cases spiked up considerably over the past four days to 31%, a total of 1,216, 0.07% of the population. Deaths increased 14% to 24, a rate of 1.9%. If this trend continues Nebraska is what we want to see for the rest of the nation, an increase in positive cases due to increased testing and a continually declining death rate.
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