There is definitely a sliding scale of loss in this pandemic. There are the truly horrific losses. The loss of life to the virus. Parents and grandparents. Sons and daughters. Spouses and Siblings. Friends and Lovers, all taken too soon by this terrible scourge. There is devastating loss of livelihoods, millions put out of work, wondering how they'll keep a roof over their heads and food on the table. There is the frightening loss of health--once vibrant people now tethered to machines to help them breathe, fighting the virus to return to health.
And then there are the lesser losses. I don't believe that all losses are equivalent, but I do think that they are all valid. There is the loss of freedom to move about, the loss of the freedom of assembly. There is the loss of milestones, weddings postponed, funerals missed, graduations on hold. Someone said that this feeling we all have-this malaise that we battle against if we are fortunate to enough not to have to fight those larger battles that eclipse everything else--is grief. We are grieving the loss of life as we knew it. We are mourning what I now call, with a wry smile, The Time Before.
I'm grieving on behalf of my eighth graders (and myself, honestly) who had their final year at Columbus Adventist Academy unceremoniously snatched away from them. And they were having such a great time too. Most of my 8th graders can't wait to get away from CAA and move on to the exciting world of high school. This class was in no hurry for the year to end. They were savoring and treasuring every moment of their school year. More than most classes, these kids deserved to have their whole year. There's a litany of 8th grade end-of-the-year traditions that my class will likely miss out on: the Day of Responsibility where they get to trade their school uniforms for professional dress and set their own schedule, the traditional photo shoot on the last Monday of the school year, the early end to the academic year and the days of graduation practice leading up to the graduation day itself. My heart hurts so much for them because they would have enjoyed all of those traditions so much. It saddens me that I can't give that to them. And then there's the class trip. . .
What about Hawaii? The CAA 8th grade class blasted through all previous class fundraising records, both on a whole-class and individual level. We've had such a beautiful outpouring of support by our community. By the time their year came to a sudden end they had banked thousands of dollars and were well on their way to achieving what seemed impossible at the start of the year--an 8th grade class trip for all 23 of them and eight chaperones to the paradise of Hawaii. And now? We have a tentative plan for a rescheduled trip from July 21 to 26 (right after a rescheduled graduation ceremony on Sunday, July 19). That's the latest possible time we can take the trip before many of them begin their freshman year of high school. But right now, that 's all it is. An idea. We have no clue whether we'll actually be able to take the trip then. Even if the travel restrictions and advisories are lifted, the virus has been contained, and it is safe to go I fear we won't have the whole class. I worry that there will be parents who remain anxious despite reassurances from public officials, who conclude that it's just too late and feels too risky. And even if we have the support of all the families, how many will we lose because there just isn't enough time to raise the remaining funds? Sure we raised thousands, but we needed to keep doing that. Our fundraising came to an abrupt halt right along with their school year. And how difficult will it be to fund raise while millions are unemployed and the economy is in shambles? What seemed like a long shot at the beginning of the year feels even longer now. I haven't given up. I can't. Not yet. But there's a part of me that's in mourning already.
I don't have a bright side to all that has been lost from the unfathomable to the irreplaceable, big and small. Sometimes it's okay to just sit and grieve whatever paradise we might have lost. For now, I'm allowing the loss to be what it is.
Here's the numbers: I predicted 486,168 cases in the United States by today. The actual number is 463,394, an increase of 27%. I predicted 16,825 deaths and I only missed the mark by 137, with the actual death toll at 16,688, an increase of 56%. Assuming the rate stays the same (which it shouldn't), I would predict the total number of cases to rise to 588,510 by Easter Sunday and our deaths will reach 26,033. These losses are staggering and it's important not to let the numbers numb us to the reality everyone represents a hole in an American family.
At the state level:
Florida: The number of cases rose 23% to 16,819, 0.08% of the population. The number of deaths rose 46% to 370, a rate of 2%. Florida remains in the top ten hardest hit states that it is currently at it's best standing since I began keeping track, at 8th place.
Ohio: The number of cases rose 24% to 5,512, 0.05% of the population. The number of deaths rose 50% to 213, a rate of 3.9%. Ohio is currently 17th in the nation for number cases.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 36% to 594, 0.03% of the total population of the state. The number of deaths rose 67% to 15, a rate of 2.5%. Nebraska has inched its way up out of the bottom ten is now 37th in the nation.
Apr 9, 2020
Apr 6, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: Just the Numbers
Too tired tonight to do much else besides review the numbers from the past four days.
The rate of new COVID-19 cases continues to slow. We saw an increase of 33% to a total of 365,525 cases as of this evening. This is 53,000 fewer cases than I predicted. Likewise the increase in deaths has slowed as well. We saw an increase of 54% to 10,925, a good 2000 less than I predicted (though still more than another month's worth of car accident deaths). My new prediction is that by Thursday, April 9 we will have 486,148 cases and 16,825 deaths.
And now to my benchmark states:
Florida: Cases match the national percent increase of 33% to 13,621, 0.06% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 253, a rate of 2%.
Ohio: Cases increase 34% to 4,450, 0.04% of the population. Deaths increase 56% to 142, a rate of 3.1%
Nebraska: Cases increase 48% to 438, still around 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 9, rate of 2%.
The rate of new COVID-19 cases continues to slow. We saw an increase of 33% to a total of 365,525 cases as of this evening. This is 53,000 fewer cases than I predicted. Likewise the increase in deaths has slowed as well. We saw an increase of 54% to 10,925, a good 2000 less than I predicted (though still more than another month's worth of car accident deaths). My new prediction is that by Thursday, April 9 we will have 486,148 cases and 16,825 deaths.
And now to my benchmark states:
Florida: Cases match the national percent increase of 33% to 13,621, 0.06% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 253, a rate of 2%.
Ohio: Cases increase 34% to 4,450, 0.04% of the population. Deaths increase 56% to 142, a rate of 3.1%
Nebraska: Cases increase 48% to 438, still around 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 9, rate of 2%.
Apr 3, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: The Right Way to Be Wrong
I've been wrong more than I've been right in my predictions regarding the spread and death rate of coronavirus. Thank goodness. Being right isn't everything and in cases like this you want to be wrong. I've heard people expressing doubts about the seriousness of the coronavirus as various predictions of the experts turn out not to have reached the stratospheric heights predicted (though they are certainly bad enough). It's a bit irrational, but quite common for people to observe that we've taken all these draconian measures and then the numbers didn't turn out to be high as they experts predicted, so what was the point of it all. It seems to escape us that perhaps the numbers aren't as high as the experts predicted precisely because of the measures we've taken. The only way you can reasonably argue that the measures we've taken were unnecessary is if we look at countries or states that have taken no restrictive measures and yet have the same rate of viral infection and deaths as those that did. But to say, "Look we took all these measures and nothing is happening!" Isn't that kind of the point?
You still hear people going on about the flu and car crashes. So many people die from these mundane events every year yet you don't see the world going into a panic, the argument goes. I decided to look into these causes of death and what I found surprised me. I truly expected that I'd find that millions die from the flu each year. But in the entire 2018-2019 flu season only 34,200 people died of the flu. Meanwhile in the six weeks between February 19 and April, over 50,000 people died of the coronavirus. So yeah, I'm not sure at all that this "just the flu."
Car accidents are serious killers on the other hand. 1.35 million people die in car wrecks every year--that's 3,700 people every single day. In the United States 38,000 people die each year--approximately 3,166 every month. But check this: On February 28, the first person in the United States died of COVID-19. Just over a month later on March 31, the death toll stood at 3,900, surpassing the typical month of car accident deaths, and the death rate is still rising. This not the same as car accidents. And another thing about car accidents and the flu. When was the last time you heard about some U.S. hospitals stretched to the breaking point by these things. Do they roll up the makeshift morgues and expand hospital capacity every year during flu season? And with all those car wrecks why isn't our medical system in a constant state of crisis?
So the experts models didn't pan out as predicted. When folks say as a result that we should no longer trust the experts, who exactly does that leave? When we say "don't trust the experts" we are saying "don't trust the people who have the most knowledge about a given topic." These "experts" with their "training" and "experience" and "knowledge." Can't trust them. But if not them, then who? They may be wrong, but they are a lot more right than those of who don't have their expertise.
I'm no expert and I'm wrong yet again, but here are my numbers from the past four days:
I predicted we'd see a total of 284,507 cases and 7,847 deaths in the United States. Wrong, but in the right way (though I wish I was a little more wrong. This is the closest I've been since I started making predictions). We have 275,288 cases. That's an increase of 52%, a 1% tick downward since Tuesday. I predicted 7,847 deaths. The actual number of deaths is 7,094, an increase of somewhere between 74% and 82% (there was a discrepancy in the New York Times death count between late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the morning reports revising the total deaths down by a 100 or so. I guess they made a mistake, but that's not enough for me to deem the source unreliable). Either way it represents a slowing of the rate of increase, which is good. On the other hand, we just had a month's worth of car accident deaths in just four days. That is not good. My predictions for the next four days. By Monday, April 6 we should see 418,438 cases and 12,911 deaths in the U.S. I truly hope to be wrong again. But I'm coming to the horrific realization that I'm not near wrong enough. Even with a slowing rate of increase these numbers are getting so huge that even lower percent increases represent devastating numbers of people.
Now to the states:
Florida: Cases increase 52% to 10,260, 0.05% of the population. Deaths increase 99% to 169, a rate of 1.7%. One of those 10,260 is someone we knew from college who is currently in the ICU.
Ohio: Cases increase 51% to 3,313, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 65% to 91, a rate of 2.7%. Glad to see our percent of increase in cases and deaths has fallen over the last four days.
Nebraska: Cases increase 53% to 296, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 6, a rate of 2%.
You still hear people going on about the flu and car crashes. So many people die from these mundane events every year yet you don't see the world going into a panic, the argument goes. I decided to look into these causes of death and what I found surprised me. I truly expected that I'd find that millions die from the flu each year. But in the entire 2018-2019 flu season only 34,200 people died of the flu. Meanwhile in the six weeks between February 19 and April, over 50,000 people died of the coronavirus. So yeah, I'm not sure at all that this "just the flu."
Car accidents are serious killers on the other hand. 1.35 million people die in car wrecks every year--that's 3,700 people every single day. In the United States 38,000 people die each year--approximately 3,166 every month. But check this: On February 28, the first person in the United States died of COVID-19. Just over a month later on March 31, the death toll stood at 3,900, surpassing the typical month of car accident deaths, and the death rate is still rising. This not the same as car accidents. And another thing about car accidents and the flu. When was the last time you heard about some U.S. hospitals stretched to the breaking point by these things. Do they roll up the makeshift morgues and expand hospital capacity every year during flu season? And with all those car wrecks why isn't our medical system in a constant state of crisis?
So the experts models didn't pan out as predicted. When folks say as a result that we should no longer trust the experts, who exactly does that leave? When we say "don't trust the experts" we are saying "don't trust the people who have the most knowledge about a given topic." These "experts" with their "training" and "experience" and "knowledge." Can't trust them. But if not them, then who? They may be wrong, but they are a lot more right than those of who don't have their expertise.
I'm no expert and I'm wrong yet again, but here are my numbers from the past four days:
I predicted we'd see a total of 284,507 cases and 7,847 deaths in the United States. Wrong, but in the right way (though I wish I was a little more wrong. This is the closest I've been since I started making predictions). We have 275,288 cases. That's an increase of 52%, a 1% tick downward since Tuesday. I predicted 7,847 deaths. The actual number of deaths is 7,094, an increase of somewhere between 74% and 82% (there was a discrepancy in the New York Times death count between late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the morning reports revising the total deaths down by a 100 or so. I guess they made a mistake, but that's not enough for me to deem the source unreliable). Either way it represents a slowing of the rate of increase, which is good. On the other hand, we just had a month's worth of car accident deaths in just four days. That is not good. My predictions for the next four days. By Monday, April 6 we should see 418,438 cases and 12,911 deaths in the U.S. I truly hope to be wrong again. But I'm coming to the horrific realization that I'm not near wrong enough. Even with a slowing rate of increase these numbers are getting so huge that even lower percent increases represent devastating numbers of people.
Now to the states:
Florida: Cases increase 52% to 10,260, 0.05% of the population. Deaths increase 99% to 169, a rate of 1.7%. One of those 10,260 is someone we knew from college who is currently in the ICU.
Ohio: Cases increase 51% to 3,313, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 65% to 91, a rate of 2.7%. Glad to see our percent of increase in cases and deaths has fallen over the last four days.
Nebraska: Cases increase 53% to 296, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 6, a rate of 2%.
Mar 31, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: Too Much Home Work
Yesterday I ended the day feeling really depressed. At first I wasn't sure why. The day had been very productive and I thought I'd used my time wisely. But then I realized: I had spent eleven and a half hours working without a break, beginning at 9:00 AM until 8:30 PM. And even after a late supper at 8:30 I continued to respond to work-related emails, text messages, and chats until after 10 PM. No one wonder I ended the day feeling frazzled!
When school first shut down I imagined that I'd have lots of time to read, watch movies, and putter around the house. That has not been my story. I didn't anticipate I'd be as busy (if not busier) than I had been when I went to school every day. Granted, I do like the flexibility of my day, working from home, but what I'm finding is that it makes me more flexible to do more work. Maintaining work-life balance is actually more important (and more difficult) now that I'm at home.
Today went better, I have to say, but I still found I had to place limits on myself to prevent work from taking over. For example, I didn't eat a hearty breakfast this morning (frozen waffles with mixed berries and whipped cream,and a glass of orange juice), but my Zoom and Google Hangout meetings with my students begin at noon and run until 4 PM. For the first half of my meetings I was starving! Clearly a solid, healthy breakfast is a must. I finally got a break when my Algebra I meeting ended a little early and I had time catch a quick lunch. However, I had to make a conscious decision to leave my phone upstairs in my the guest bedroom/office so I'd have a break from the never ending chimes of notifications. I also made it a goal to stop work at 4 PM every day. I got pretty close, finishing up around 4:15 and heading out for satisfying 45 minute run. Granted I do plan to go back tonight and prep my daily emails, but I still feel I'm doing better. It's also 11:32 PM and I have not gone to bed yet. I did spend some time watching Jojo Rabbit while folding clothes so that has to count for something.
My goal is to get up by seven every morning, have devotions and breakfast and be ready to start working by 8:30. My mornings will be devoted to lesson prep (making YouTube instructional videos and planning activities) and grading. Class time will begin at noon until 4 PM. And 4 PM on will be time for me and for my family. Hopefully I'll be in bed by 11 every night. Just not tonight.
The Numbers so far: There definitely appears to be a pattern here. The rate of infections is increasing but the rate at which it is increasing is slowing. Meanwhile the death rate continues to hold just below my predictions. I expected the number of infections to stand at 221,530. Instead we have 187,176. The deaths are 4,087, now the third highest in the world and only just shy of my prediction of 4,656. Here's the new numbers I project we'll see by Friday night: With a percent increase of 53%, 284,507 cases and deaths with an increase of 92% (also below 100% for the first time) at 7,847. We are still climbing the peak, but it's taking us longer to get there.
And my three states:
Florida: Infections increase 67% to 6,741, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 52% to 85, the same rate of 1.4%
Ohio: Infections increase 56% to 2,199, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 120% to 55, a rate of 2.5%. Not good.
Nebraska: Infections increase 60% to 193, 0.01% of the population. Deaths increase 100% to 4, a rate of 2%.
I have to say Florida, despite it's reputation and fifth highest infection rate in the nation is not looking too shabby. Yes,it has the highest percent increase in infections but it's got the lowest death rate and the lowest percent increase in deaths--by a significant percentage! While Ohio may be flattening the curve, of the three, Ohio is not the state you want to be in if you test positive.
When school first shut down I imagined that I'd have lots of time to read, watch movies, and putter around the house. That has not been my story. I didn't anticipate I'd be as busy (if not busier) than I had been when I went to school every day. Granted, I do like the flexibility of my day, working from home, but what I'm finding is that it makes me more flexible to do more work. Maintaining work-life balance is actually more important (and more difficult) now that I'm at home.
Today went better, I have to say, but I still found I had to place limits on myself to prevent work from taking over. For example, I didn't eat a hearty breakfast this morning (frozen waffles with mixed berries and whipped cream,and a glass of orange juice), but my Zoom and Google Hangout meetings with my students begin at noon and run until 4 PM. For the first half of my meetings I was starving! Clearly a solid, healthy breakfast is a must. I finally got a break when my Algebra I meeting ended a little early and I had time catch a quick lunch. However, I had to make a conscious decision to leave my phone upstairs in my the guest bedroom/office so I'd have a break from the never ending chimes of notifications. I also made it a goal to stop work at 4 PM every day. I got pretty close, finishing up around 4:15 and heading out for satisfying 45 minute run. Granted I do plan to go back tonight and prep my daily emails, but I still feel I'm doing better. It's also 11:32 PM and I have not gone to bed yet. I did spend some time watching Jojo Rabbit while folding clothes so that has to count for something.
My goal is to get up by seven every morning, have devotions and breakfast and be ready to start working by 8:30. My mornings will be devoted to lesson prep (making YouTube instructional videos and planning activities) and grading. Class time will begin at noon until 4 PM. And 4 PM on will be time for me and for my family. Hopefully I'll be in bed by 11 every night. Just not tonight.
The Numbers so far: There definitely appears to be a pattern here. The rate of infections is increasing but the rate at which it is increasing is slowing. Meanwhile the death rate continues to hold just below my predictions. I expected the number of infections to stand at 221,530. Instead we have 187,176. The deaths are 4,087, now the third highest in the world and only just shy of my prediction of 4,656. Here's the new numbers I project we'll see by Friday night: With a percent increase of 53%, 284,507 cases and deaths with an increase of 92% (also below 100% for the first time) at 7,847. We are still climbing the peak, but it's taking us longer to get there.
And my three states:
Florida: Infections increase 67% to 6,741, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 52% to 85, the same rate of 1.4%
Ohio: Infections increase 56% to 2,199, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 120% to 55, a rate of 2.5%. Not good.
Nebraska: Infections increase 60% to 193, 0.01% of the population. Deaths increase 100% to 4, a rate of 2%.
I have to say Florida, despite it's reputation and fifth highest infection rate in the nation is not looking too shabby. Yes,it has the highest percent increase in infections but it's got the lowest death rate and the lowest percent increase in deaths--by a significant percentage! While Ohio may be flattening the curve, of the three, Ohio is not the state you want to be in if you test positive.
Mar 28, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: Blessings
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| Dr. Amy Acton, director the Ohio Health Department, and our governor Mike DeWine Photo Credit: TNS |
I did not vote for our governor, Mike DeWine. But I sure am a fan now. I really feel grateful for his handling of the Coronavirus crisis in our state. Every day he gives a press briefing on COVID-19, and the few snatches I've managed to catch left me very impressed. Of course, he's known across the country for being one of the governors taking action early on--a gold standard if you will, of response to the virus. I appreciate that, and that he's holding the line, sticking with the science no matter which way the national winds are blowing. He's demonstrated true leadership throughout this---he is serious, in-charge, decisive, clear. But he's also compassionate and sensitive to the trauma so many in our state are going through--some from the Coronavirus itself, so many more facing deeply trying circumstances as they've watched their livelihoods evaporate overnight.And I love that Governor DeWine is a Republican, proving that our leaders' responses to things don't always to fall along "party lines." Listening to his briefs is always encouraging, hopeful, and inspiring even when he's delivering sobering news or difficult directives. Watching him and our state health department director Dr. Amy Acton always leaves me feeling less anxious.
Speaking of Dr. Acton, she provided another blessing in today's press briefing where she continued to emphasize that we are "flattening the curve" here in Ohio. It's great to know that the actions we are taking are making a difference, that we pushing out the point of peak infection, buying our healthcare heroes more time, and ensuring that our healthcare system won't be overwhelmed. I've included a link to her presentation this afternoon (it's about 10 minutes along). Like our governor, she has a soothing, encouraging demeanor and I like that she-like him-ended on a personal note.
Another blessing--and they're everywhere when you start to look--is that my old friend Grant Graves appears to have brought his considerable gifts back to the public and we are all better for it. God has gifted Grant with a unique insight into spiritual things. He has an ability to take the simplest truths and put just a little spin on them, like a elite volleyball player's serve that turns what seems like a plain truth into a killer insight that gets right to the heart of things. Grant has recently started posting short YouTube devotionals, and the first one I saw (number 6 in his series actually) was an ace! These days of lockdown have their ups and downs. Some days I feel really great, and others kind of depressed. Grant reminded me today that when I'm feeling down, to think about what it is I feel in need of and try to provide that for same thing for someone else.
And now to the numbers, Once again my numbers were too high on the new cases, while my predictions for deaths were very, very close to reality. Based on the same or higher rate of increase that we saw in the four days prior to my last entry I expected 146, 277 cases reported and 2,274 deaths. Instead we have 123,072 cases and 2,126 deaths. This represents a rate of infection below 100% for the first time since I started doing these numbers. While the new infections are still increasing exponentially, the rate does appear to be slowing. Could it be that we, as a nation, are also succeeding at squashing the curve? Based on the current rate, I would expect 221,530 cases by Tuesday evening, March 31 and 4,656 deaths.
I'm adding some new numbers to my every four days review. I'd like to compare three states: Florida, a state that is viewed by many as taking a rather slapdash approach to this pandemic; Ohio, a state that has been lauded as a leader in tackling this thing head on, and Nebraska, a state representative of those near the bottom rungs of this epidemic. Here's our baseline:
Florida: Population of 21.9 million, 4,038 cases representing 0.02% of the population, with 56 deaths, a rate of 1.4% (i.e. not just the flu)
Ohio: Population of 11.7 million, 1,406 cases representing 0.01% of the population, with 25 deaths, a rate of 1.8%
Nebraska: Population of 1.95 million, 121 cases representing 0.006% of the population, with 2 deaths, a rate of 1.7%
Mar 25, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: Leading the Way (In All the Wrong Ways)
One prediction was off by quite a bit, the other pretty darn close. I predicted on Monday morning that by tonight we'd have 102,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and just over 1000 deaths. Well, it turns out that instead of more than tripling our numbers, we have slightly more than doubled the rate of infection at 68,354 people. What surprised me though was the death toll: 972 people have lost to their live to the virus, just 60 shy of my prediction. That can't be good news. The infection rate is not as quick as I thought but the death rate appears to be on track. At least it wasn't over what I predicted. I just thought if I was going to be off on anything, it would be the death rate.
I estimate, adjusting to account for the data for past four days data, that by Saturday, March 28 we will be at 146,277 infections and will have lost 2,274 people. That just seems crazy to me. This whole thing feels unreal. And what I'm hoping is that when I return for another entry Saturday evening it will turn out that I was a being an alarmist.
The United States has been racing to the top of the charts. We are now just 6000 cases away from overtaking Iran for the number two spot, and a mere 13,000 cases from overtaking China. Meanwhile we are rapidly pulling away from Spain who is now a good 20,000 cases behind us. Thankfully our death rate is lower than all of those countries. But we still have the 6th highest death rate globally. With President Trump talking about "re-opening for business" by Easter, I am not at all confident that this is going to go well for our country.
I estimate, adjusting to account for the data for past four days data, that by Saturday, March 28 we will be at 146,277 infections and will have lost 2,274 people. That just seems crazy to me. This whole thing feels unreal. And what I'm hoping is that when I return for another entry Saturday evening it will turn out that I was a being an alarmist.
The United States has been racing to the top of the charts. We are now just 6000 cases away from overtaking Iran for the number two spot, and a mere 13,000 cases from overtaking China. Meanwhile we are rapidly pulling away from Spain who is now a good 20,000 cases behind us. Thankfully our death rate is lower than all of those countries. But we still have the 6th highest death rate globally. With President Trump talking about "re-opening for business" by Easter, I am not at all confident that this is going to go well for our country.
Mar 23, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville: Corona Connections
We've really been fortunate so far. No one in our family is sick or been in contact with someone who is sick. We've got salaried paychecks that haven't been impacted by having to work remotely. We actually can stay home instead of having to work in risky situations like many of my my friends in the front line healthcare professions. In addition there has been an unexpected blessing, which is the focus of my blog today.
But first, a look at the numbers. On Thursday, March 19 I predicted that by yesterday, Sunday, March 22, we should have 26,300 cases of the Coronavirus here in the United States, and 433 deaths. It seemed outrageous at the time to add 16,000 cases in just 3 days. But by Sunday evening we had over 32,000 cases--over my projection, and 416 deaths, just barely under. With a higher percent increase of 220% my new projection for Wednesday, March 25 is that we will have 102,400 cases and will have surpassed China's total numbers since the start of the outbreak. Deaths will stand at 1,032. If, in fact ,the increased infection numbers are due largely to wider testing availability hopefully the deaths will be lower.
South Korea is interesting to watch. I look at the New York Times Coranavirus Outbreak maps for the world and the United States at least twice a day. They are pretty accurate (although sometimes our local newspaper, the Columbus Dispatch has more accurate numbers for Ohio. But the NYT always catches up eventually). I've noted that South Korea is increasing at a much slower rate than most other countries. Their infections have been in the 8,000's for so long now and their death rate remains stubbornly low too. Clearly they are doing something right--something we are not doing. I've heard that the key to their success at managing the outbreak has been widespread testing of everyone (not just those that are symptomatic) and among other things, a commitment to self-quarantining as means of protecting others as opposed to protecting oneself. Here in the United States widespread testing doesn't even seem to be possible, and it seems to me our focus has been "how can I protect myself from the virus" as opposed to "let me social distance for the sake of others". It's a small but important distinction.
A Twinge of Fear. Up until yesterday I've really not been fearful of the virus itself. I take all the precautions recommended by the CDC and so on, but I've felt pretty certain that I won't get the virus and if I do that I'll survive it. But then, yesterday COVID-19 entered my six degrees of separation. A man by the name of Michael Bane posted a Facebook account of his horrifying struggle with the virus. He went to Andrews University and many of my friends, including my cousin know him well. The combination of that closeness and the hair-raising ordeal he's been through made it all feel so much more real to me. And for the first time I felt a twinge--just a twinge-of fear of the virus itself.
Connections. But my main focus of this blog is not the numbers or the fear. It's relationships. One of the unexpected blessings of this global ordeal has been the opportunity to reconnect with people I love, connect on a deeper level with others, and connect for the first time with still others.
Last night my Uncle Robert hosted a virtual gathering via GoToMeeting of all of the offspring of my grandmother and her three siblings. It was a gathering of the Yip family, the Chinese side of our family. Of course mom, and my uncles I knew very well, but most of the rest their cousins I had only met once or twice years ago and many I had never met at all. It was really amazing to see these strangers who look nothing like me and realize that they are all my family. It reminded me a lot of the family reunion on my dad's side back in 2017. They all seemed like such great people--funny, kind, gentle folk. Grandma and all of her siblings have passed away, but Dora and Margaret,the spouses of her two brothers joined us by phone and it was so nice to hear their precious voices. At least one of my mother's cousins, DeeAnne, I feel like I've gotten to know and appreciate through our Facebook friendship. I've seen photos but never met her and it was cool to meet her and her husband virtually. It was one step closer to an in person meeting. I felt a strong desire to get to know these people better, and I think my only sadness was that with the various technical difficulties--feedback from unmuted mics, some not being able to see all the participants on the screen--we didn't get to talk really that much. I didn't have much to say myself but I wanted to hear stories. I wanted to hear about Uncle Roddy, Uncle Celian, Auntie Yvonne and of course Grandma. I wanted to know their journey and get to know the people who came from them. When the gathering ended, I was grateful but also wanting more. I'd like to do it again and hopefully get more stories.
Also this past Sabbath, we had our first official meeting of the "First Family SDA Church". Basically it was Mom, Vince, Dawn & Jim and their kids, Uncle Roland and Aunt Colleen, Nicole, and our family getting together via Google Hangout to have church together. It took us about an hour to get the technical kinks worked out, but once we did we had a really nice time of prayer, praise, and spiritual encouragement. Uncle Roland even played a guitar piece for special music and I had a story for the kids. After the "service" was over everyone hung around to "fellowship" for another hour or so. Later that evening we got together for "AY" where our boys presented a praise dance/juggling routine they came up with. It's strange how it took being cut off from the world to reconnect with family that I normally wouldn't talk to except at Sabbath lunch during our summer or Christmas Florida visits. Next week Barbara's mom will be attending as well. Hit me up if you'd like to join us!
Last, but not least are the current connections deepened over broadband. Realizing that I may not teach my 8th graders in a real-world classroom again has been heartbreaking. We are determined to have some sort of graduation for them--though when and how that will happen we can't say. And as for their class trip--this epic journey to Hawaii--a trip that they've already raised many thousands of dollars for, we are hoping to postpone to July. But, my heart has been so touched by my students interactions online. Google Hangouts has been our central form of communication. Every morning I'd pop on to the Hangout to see them chatting away, making jokes and regularly expressing affection for each other. I haven't had a such a close-knit class in a very long time and it is a beautiful thing to see and be a part of. Every afternoon we'd have our video hangouts to grade assignments and take questions on anything they needed help with. It was such a blessing to see them in their own environments--their safe places, to hear their voices. Ironically, even though we are physically apart, I feel like I've gotten to know them so much better, and I've found them to be even more amazing than I realized. This week we are on our previously scheduled "spring break" so there's no new work to assign and the chatter on Hangouts is much less. But to be honest--I can't wait to "see" them all again next week when online school resumes.
Mar 19, 2020
Dispatch from Coronaville
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| My friend Heather posted this meme and I just had to steal it. It was just the perfect intro to this post. |
This was originally going to be just a quick Facebook post, but then I thought that with the unbelievable changes that have consumed the world as we know it thanks to a mindlessly replicating virus, I might want this in my blog officially, for the Record.
A couple of miscellaneous thoughts a week after our life suddenly turned upside down:
First some numbers. I'm just a middle school math teacher--not a statistician, not an epidemiologist, but I decided to play around with some numbers using some of the concepts I'd just been teaching my 7th grade class:
In the past four days we've seen a 163% increase in the number of people infected with the coronavirus. If the number of cases increase at a constant rate we should be be at 26,300 cases by Sunday. Likewise there should 433 deaths by Sunday. Of course the increase has been exponential not constant so far, so this should be conservative projection. I will revisit these numbers on Sunday to see how far off I was. Right now, it feels like nah, there's no way those numbers will be that high by Sunday. Could be I live in Denial, Ohio. We'll see.
Second a few thoughts on the the argument that these extreme measures to flatten the curve aren't worth the damage to the economy given the relatively few number of people that will die as percentage of the population as a whole. I don't find that argument compelling when it's predicated on the assumption that won't be me or anyone I love. It would be a more intellectually compelling argument to say "even if it's me--I mean statistically it's not likely--but even if it's me that contract the virus and dies from it, the nation is better off as a whole and I'm willing to take one for the team. Or: "Even if it's my mother-highly unlikely but still--I'm willing to sacrifice her because the vast majority of Americans will be fine." Perhaps Rush Limbaugh could lead this charge--he is after all immunocompromised himself--so he'd make a great poster boy for this national movement of self-sacrifice for the sake of our great nation. But of course that won't happen. We always think it won't happen to us. And we are almost always right. Except for when we are not.
I am worried about the economy. I can't imagine what it must be like to watch your income just evaporate overnight like that. And that is the story for so many people in this country. I mean can we really just stop the economy like this? I just don't see how it's sustainable, and I suspect the fallout will be far greater than we imagine.
I would like to know more about the swine flu pandemic of 2009. Why is this so different? Apparently a lot of people died--I guess it was a big deal--but it's barely a blip on my radar and certainly there was no world wide lock down. I suspect it's because the curve was "flatter" that people got infected over a longer period of time, allowing the medical system to cope more or less. But I really don't know. If anyone has some good information on this shoot me a link (and don't send me any conspiracy theories. I don't believe in them. The reasons for that are for another blog entry). I think when something "obvious" to me isn't obvious to the the experts I think it's a mistake to assume that they are the ones who are wrong.
Just a few thoughts from Coronaville.
Mar 6, 2020
What's the Scratch?
Since August of last year I've been a staff writer for The Scratch, an online news source for Seventh-day Adventists. The weekly news brief was founded by young, active-in-the-church Adventists Ryan Becker and Kevin Christensen and features writers across generations from Baby Boomers to Gen X to Millenials to Gen Z. I suppose you could argue that as a writer for the Scratch I'm a little biased when I say that I think this is a vital resource for SDA church members. There are already so many Adventist media outlets from official outlets like the Adventist Review to independent outfits like Spectrum. What could a new outlet possibly bring to the table that's not already there?
I think The Scratch has three elements that it make essential to every member that wants to know what's going on in their church.
First, The Scratch is unbiased. Getting unbiased information about what's going on in the world church is a tricky proposition. Virtually all of the church-sanctioned media outlets are more about public relations or devotions than news. This is not a criticism. I think it's entirely appropriate that the Adventist Review serve as source of inspiration and information about what great things are happening in the church. But if there are things that aren't going so well in the church; when there are stories that might not make the church look so good you're not going to find them in the Review or any of the union publications like the Visitor or Southern Tidings. On the other hand Spectrum magazine and others ranging across the conservative to liberal spectrum (no pun intended) exist to cast a critical eye on the church proper. They serve an important purpose in challenging members to think critically and evaluate carefully what is going on in the church. But what if you just want to know what's going on in the church without PR puffery or jaundiced critique? That's where The Scratch comes in. Our editors have made it clear that every piece we submit should stick to just the facts and avoid editorializing. The closest you'll get to personal opinion is in the "Word on the Street" segment at the end of our "Need to Know" brief where we''ll summarize what people are saying from all sides of the issue.
Second, The Scratch is short. This blog entry is already longer than an entire Scratch News Brief. The Scratch is a news brief not a news magazine. We know you're busy and in The Scratch you'll find a quick and reliable way to know what's happening now in the Seventh-day Adventist Church in five minutes or less. If you have the time and want to know more or dig deeper, every Scratch article includes links to our sources where you can explore the issue in greater depth. Each weekly news brief includes one longer "Need to Know" article and two to three one paragraph "Ought to Know" briefs. It's all there on one page. There may be other independent outlets like Adventist Today that strive to provide unvarnished hard news about the Adventist church, but none that I know of do it as concisely as the Scratch does.
Third, The Scratch is current. Because The Scratch releases a news brief every Friday (so that you show up for church Sabbath morning fully in the know), the latest news is always included. A monthly release would mean by the time you get the news it's no longer the latest, it's just late.
So there you have it. For the latest, unbiased news on the Adventist church in five minutes or less make The Scratch part of your routine. You can link to the site above and then, if you'd like, sign up to get The Scratch brief delivered to your inbox.
Dec 31, 2019
The Thirteenth Annual Inspirations List: 2019
What does it mean to be a hero? "Don't be a hero," you'll hear it said to someone about to embark on a risky endeavor. What do we by mean that? Don't show off, don't do something foolish to make a big impression. But think about it (that phrase by the way, "Think about it" is one that the youngest hero on this year's list says all the time when he's making a point. It's good advice. Think about it. But I digress.) Have you ever noticed that the people we actually call heroes never do those kinds of things? Invariably that heroic individual will dismiss their exploits. "I'm no hero", they say. " I was just doing my job." I'm pretty sure that's what everyone on this year's list would say. I've come to realize that what defines a hero is not what heroes think of themselves, but how they impact the lives of others. Of course they weren't trying to be heroes. They are simply living their lives and the kind of lives they live touch us and inspire us. None of the people on this year's list have rushed into a burning building to save anyone (as far as I know). But here's the thing about each one of them. They are the kind of people who would.
There is an interesting symmetry to this list at end of this decade and the one I posted ten years ago. I ended this last decade with Dr. John Carlos as my hero: his wife bookends this decade. And in 2009 one hero was barely a year old. This year he returns to the list, inspiring me still. This year's heroes range in age from 11 years old to north of 80. They are two women and five men (yes, two are arguably boys, but to me they are more men than many with more years). Two of my heroes are widely known; my accolades are just a drop in the bucket of praise they have received. But none sought the hero's mantle. All earned my respect by the quiet life choices they made day in and day out. Choices that changed the world and changed me.
Here are my heroes for the year 2019:
Sam Ulett
Christian Stepney
Roy Rutter
Tara Westover
Grace Carlos
Elijah Maycock
Fred Rogers
Sam Ulett
I am inspired by his messages
His sermons have changed my life. I'd rather see a sermon than hear a sermon any day, or so they say. And Pastor Ulett does inspire me by the sermons he lives through his humility, gentleness, kindness, and Christ-like spirit. But it just so happens that his actual sermons have been pretty life-changing as well. I can think of only three sermons that changed the way I live my life and two of them were preached by Pastor Ulett. He probably didn't realize the impact his message had on me; I'm sure they were messages he'd delivered before and will surely deliver again. But I will never forget them. It wasn't the oratorical theatrics, it wasn't the clever assembly of ideas. No, it was simple truth delivered with the gentle power of the Holy Spirit that convicted me to approach life a little differently than I had before.
Christian Stepney
I am inspired by his commitment to growth
Good, better, best. You know the saying. He never let it rest, until his good was better and his better best. I can honestly say that I have never met a young man so committed to personal improvement as Christian. At the beginning of his eighth grade school year he purposed in his heart to make a change with God's help. He'd always been a good kid, but for Christian good wasn't good enough. He wanted to raise his grades, lead his classmates, set a higher bar for himself. He ran for 8th grade class president and won, leading the class well throughout the year. He earned the best grades of his life, went from a middling academic performer to one of the top students in his class. He wasn't perfect. He made mistakes. Like all real growth, there were missteps and setbacks along the way but he never wavered in his commitment to do better. And from what I hear, as a freshman at Pine Forge Academy this year, he's not finished yet. He's better than ever by all accounts, but he is still on a quest for best.
Roy Rutter
I am inspired by his helpfulness
Love thy neighbor is more than a scripture for Roy. It's a way of life. From virtually the day we moved in, Roy has been the exemplar of what it means to be a good neighbor. Technically, he's not our neighbor. He lives several streets over in our neighborhood, but he might as well live next door. He's always available to lend a ladder, a fertilizer spreader, a helping hand and a word of wise counsel. His assistance and advice have been invaluable to me as a new homeowner. His years of accumulated knowledge have saved me headaches and money on countless occasions. He is a man who loves the Lord with all his heart and soul and strength and mind, and he shows that love by the way he treats people--with compassion and generosity. Though our political views and our Christian faith traditions couldn't be more different, Roy has never let that stand in the way of Jesus' simple command to love one another. He sees in me a fellow brother in Christ and he loves me as he loves himself.
Tara Westover
I am inspired by her journey
Hers was the ultimate jailbreak. It was not Tara Westover's escape from years of oppression and abuse at the hands of family members. It was not her miraculous survival of multiple injuries without the benefit of medical treatment. It was not her entering a classroom for the first time in her life as a seventeen year old college student and ten years later holding a PhD from Cambridge University. While all of these accomplishments, detailed in her stunning memoir Educated, are amazing in themselves, what truly inspired me was Westover's mental journey. Dr. Westover's journey to knowing and trusting her own mind; her heart-stopping odyssey to define herself instead of being defined by those she loved; her departure from fear and her journey to "emancipation from mental slavery"--all of this has challenged me to do the same in my own life. To not only reject the fears I've carried from my earliest years, but to actually put those fears down and live free.
Grace Carlos
I am inspired by her gracious spirit
It seemed a little too on the nose. But try as I might I couldn't come up with another word to describe Grace Carlos that wasn't her name. Grace. I never call her that, of course. To me she'll always be Mrs. Carlos. After all she's my best friend's mom and I've known her as long as I've known him--since I was a fifteen year old high school freshman. In all that time I've been impressed by her gracious hospitality, her grace-filled kindness and warmth, and her deep knowledge and reflection of the grace of Jesus. Mrs. Carlos is a lover of life, a lover of people, and a lover of God. It seems like wherever she and Dr. Carlos go, it isn't long before they are in the very center of their church family, serving others and extending grace to whomever they encounter. I always feel at home whenever I visit the Carlos's (starting with weekends in high school, and most recently, last year when they hosted our family when we are at Andrews University for alumni weekend). Her generous laugh, that sparkle in her eye when she smiles, the fervency with which she prays (not to mention those delicious home-cooked meals) have ministered to me for over three decades now. Thanks, Mrs. Carlos, for living up to your name. You have blessed me, and countless others, immensely and only in eternity will we know the full reach of the grace of your Creator, extended through you.
Elijah Maycock
I am inspired by his courage
Sometimes the bravest thing you can do is to be yourself. My son has exemplified this bravery time and again over the ll years of his life so far. Because he is a "brony"--a boy who likes the My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic TV series--he has endured his fair share of teasing through the years from kids (and sometimes even adults). There were times when I quietly wished, for his own sake, he'd hide his fandom from those outside the family ("Do we really have to get the MLP backpack?"). But Elijah has always been determined to be who he is without apology and let the chips fall where they may. Eventually he earned the respect of his classmates who, for the most part, now simply accept him as he is. In so many ways both big and small, Elijah has shown the courage of his convictions and a determination to live a truthful life, even when he feels scared. He inspires me to do the same.
One of the great struggles of sons is to know they have the approval of their fathers, and I know Elijah often wonders how I feel about him when it seems I'm always reprimanding, reminding, pushing, stressed by the demands of parenting. Elijah, I want you to know I see you, I love you, I like you, I respect you. You are my hero.
Fred Rogers
I am inspired by his example
Take a minute to think of the people who have cared about you along the way. This was something that Fred Rogers, known the world over as Mr. Rogers host of the children's television show that bears his name, liked to have people do when he gave commencement addresses and other public speeches (here's one example, from his 2002 commencement address at Dartmouth; skip to the 10:50 mark if you like). Mr. Rogers has been a household name for a couple of generations, and though he passed away back in 2003 a recent documentary, a podcast, and a movie just released last month, among other cultural nods, have brought his legacy back to the forefront. I watched his show occasionally as a child--my favorite part was always the visits to the Land of Make Believe, but his biggest impact on me was as an adult. I read the powerful Tom Junod Esquire magazine article a few years ago and was inspired by one man's honest quest to speak to children truthfully with love, kindness, and total acceptance. If you haven't read that article, do it. It is worth the time. This year I've had the opportunity to reflect once again Rogers' example of what it means to be a true hero--someone who makes a difference through love, respect, acceptance, and honest appreciation of our own feelings and those of others.
Anyway, at the end of the recent documentary on Mr. Rogers, viewers were invited to do take a minute to think of the people who have cared about us along the way and let me tell you it got real dusty in that theater as I thought of my mother, grandparents, aunts and uncles, teachers, friends, my wife and many others who have blessed my life along the way. (Maybe this annual Heroes blog is my way of annually practicing that minute of appreciation). And now that I think about it, Fred Rogers is one of those people I'd picture. Though he never new me personally, he cared about me because he cared about everyone.
There is an interesting symmetry to this list at end of this decade and the one I posted ten years ago. I ended this last decade with Dr. John Carlos as my hero: his wife bookends this decade. And in 2009 one hero was barely a year old. This year he returns to the list, inspiring me still. This year's heroes range in age from 11 years old to north of 80. They are two women and five men (yes, two are arguably boys, but to me they are more men than many with more years). Two of my heroes are widely known; my accolades are just a drop in the bucket of praise they have received. But none sought the hero's mantle. All earned my respect by the quiet life choices they made day in and day out. Choices that changed the world and changed me.
Here are my heroes for the year 2019:
Sam Ulett
Christian Stepney
Roy Rutter
Tara Westover
Grace Carlos
Elijah Maycock
Fred Rogers
Sam Ulett
I am inspired by his messages
His sermons have changed my life. I'd rather see a sermon than hear a sermon any day, or so they say. And Pastor Ulett does inspire me by the sermons he lives through his humility, gentleness, kindness, and Christ-like spirit. But it just so happens that his actual sermons have been pretty life-changing as well. I can think of only three sermons that changed the way I live my life and two of them were preached by Pastor Ulett. He probably didn't realize the impact his message had on me; I'm sure they were messages he'd delivered before and will surely deliver again. But I will never forget them. It wasn't the oratorical theatrics, it wasn't the clever assembly of ideas. No, it was simple truth delivered with the gentle power of the Holy Spirit that convicted me to approach life a little differently than I had before.
Christian Stepney
I am inspired by his commitment to growth
Roy Rutter
I am inspired by his helpfulness
Love thy neighbor is more than a scripture for Roy. It's a way of life. From virtually the day we moved in, Roy has been the exemplar of what it means to be a good neighbor. Technically, he's not our neighbor. He lives several streets over in our neighborhood, but he might as well live next door. He's always available to lend a ladder, a fertilizer spreader, a helping hand and a word of wise counsel. His assistance and advice have been invaluable to me as a new homeowner. His years of accumulated knowledge have saved me headaches and money on countless occasions. He is a man who loves the Lord with all his heart and soul and strength and mind, and he shows that love by the way he treats people--with compassion and generosity. Though our political views and our Christian faith traditions couldn't be more different, Roy has never let that stand in the way of Jesus' simple command to love one another. He sees in me a fellow brother in Christ and he loves me as he loves himself.
Tara Westover
I am inspired by her journey
Hers was the ultimate jailbreak. It was not Tara Westover's escape from years of oppression and abuse at the hands of family members. It was not her miraculous survival of multiple injuries without the benefit of medical treatment. It was not her entering a classroom for the first time in her life as a seventeen year old college student and ten years later holding a PhD from Cambridge University. While all of these accomplishments, detailed in her stunning memoir Educated, are amazing in themselves, what truly inspired me was Westover's mental journey. Dr. Westover's journey to knowing and trusting her own mind; her heart-stopping odyssey to define herself instead of being defined by those she loved; her departure from fear and her journey to "emancipation from mental slavery"--all of this has challenged me to do the same in my own life. To not only reject the fears I've carried from my earliest years, but to actually put those fears down and live free.
Grace Carlos
I am inspired by her gracious spirit
It seemed a little too on the nose. But try as I might I couldn't come up with another word to describe Grace Carlos that wasn't her name. Grace. I never call her that, of course. To me she'll always be Mrs. Carlos. After all she's my best friend's mom and I've known her as long as I've known him--since I was a fifteen year old high school freshman. In all that time I've been impressed by her gracious hospitality, her grace-filled kindness and warmth, and her deep knowledge and reflection of the grace of Jesus. Mrs. Carlos is a lover of life, a lover of people, and a lover of God. It seems like wherever she and Dr. Carlos go, it isn't long before they are in the very center of their church family, serving others and extending grace to whomever they encounter. I always feel at home whenever I visit the Carlos's (starting with weekends in high school, and most recently, last year when they hosted our family when we are at Andrews University for alumni weekend). Her generous laugh, that sparkle in her eye when she smiles, the fervency with which she prays (not to mention those delicious home-cooked meals) have ministered to me for over three decades now. Thanks, Mrs. Carlos, for living up to your name. You have blessed me, and countless others, immensely and only in eternity will we know the full reach of the grace of your Creator, extended through you.
Elijah Maycock
I am inspired by his courage
Sometimes the bravest thing you can do is to be yourself. My son has exemplified this bravery time and again over the ll years of his life so far. Because he is a "brony"--a boy who likes the My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic TV series--he has endured his fair share of teasing through the years from kids (and sometimes even adults). There were times when I quietly wished, for his own sake, he'd hide his fandom from those outside the family ("Do we really have to get the MLP backpack?"). But Elijah has always been determined to be who he is without apology and let the chips fall where they may. Eventually he earned the respect of his classmates who, for the most part, now simply accept him as he is. In so many ways both big and small, Elijah has shown the courage of his convictions and a determination to live a truthful life, even when he feels scared. He inspires me to do the same.
One of the great struggles of sons is to know they have the approval of their fathers, and I know Elijah often wonders how I feel about him when it seems I'm always reprimanding, reminding, pushing, stressed by the demands of parenting. Elijah, I want you to know I see you, I love you, I like you, I respect you. You are my hero.
Fred Rogers
I am inspired by his example
Take a minute to think of the people who have cared about you along the way. This was something that Fred Rogers, known the world over as Mr. Rogers host of the children's television show that bears his name, liked to have people do when he gave commencement addresses and other public speeches (here's one example, from his 2002 commencement address at Dartmouth; skip to the 10:50 mark if you like). Mr. Rogers has been a household name for a couple of generations, and though he passed away back in 2003 a recent documentary, a podcast, and a movie just released last month, among other cultural nods, have brought his legacy back to the forefront. I watched his show occasionally as a child--my favorite part was always the visits to the Land of Make Believe, but his biggest impact on me was as an adult. I read the powerful Tom Junod Esquire magazine article a few years ago and was inspired by one man's honest quest to speak to children truthfully with love, kindness, and total acceptance. If you haven't read that article, do it. It is worth the time. This year I've had the opportunity to reflect once again Rogers' example of what it means to be a true hero--someone who makes a difference through love, respect, acceptance, and honest appreciation of our own feelings and those of others.
Anyway, at the end of the recent documentary on Mr. Rogers, viewers were invited to do take a minute to think of the people who have cared about us along the way and let me tell you it got real dusty in that theater as I thought of my mother, grandparents, aunts and uncles, teachers, friends, my wife and many others who have blessed my life along the way. (Maybe this annual Heroes blog is my way of annually practicing that minute of appreciation). And now that I think about it, Fred Rogers is one of those people I'd picture. Though he never new me personally, he cared about me because he cared about everyone.
Dec 27, 2019
On Magic and Miracles
I've just started reading the first book in the Harry Potter series to my oldest son. I do so with some trepidation. I made an impassioned Christian defense of the series more than a decade ago on my now defunct Faith Journeys blog (You can still read it here. The post even includes an early meditation on magic that I'm fleshing out in this entry). I knew, even then, that while it would be easy as a childless adult to argue that the Potter stories were not a dangerous slippery slope towards real-life occultism and witchcraft, it would be much harder to put that argument to the test with children of my own. For quite a few years I was able to dodge the challenge. My son knew about Harry Potter but showed no interest, and despite my personal fandom, I didn't encourage him to take an interest. But I knew my son--how similar we are in so many ways--and that it would only be a matter of time before he was drawn to the stories.
Sure enough. Here we are. For a couple of years now, reading together has been a special tradition we've shared. We went through the entire C.S. Lewis Narnia series--he loved it. It's the gold standard for him in Christian themed literature. I read him the halfway decent novelized version of Desire of Ages titled Victory of the Warrior King by the Seventh-day Adventist author Sally Pierson Dillon. And then came the request: Can we read Harry Potter next? I put him off for a bit, explaining the protagonist was older than he was and that he might find it scary. But now he's eleven, the same age as Harry is in the Sorcerers Stone, and it's time to put my money where my mouth is.
We talk a fair amount as we read. I know there is an interesting, arguably Christian theme that becomes quite clear by the final book of the series, but I haven't mentioned it, not wanting to give it away. But we talk about other things that pop up.
Interestingly, I'm noting some things that I don't like so much, that I didn't really pay much attention to the first time around. I should clarify that I began reading the series with the third book, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, read through to the end, and then never went back to read the first two books. So we will be discovering The Socerer's Stone and The Chamber of Secrets together. So maybe I didn't notice these things because they are less prominent in the later books? I don't know.
First, I found I was turned off by the description of the Dursleys, Harry's horrible aunt, uncle and cousin who he is living with under absurdly abusive circumstances at the start of the story. I find it kind of lazy and offensive that the Durselys' horribleness is not defined only by their character or behavior but also by their appearance. Cousin Dudley is overweight in the extreme,and Aunt and Uncle are each also physically ugly. To me this is kind of boring in addition to hurtful to overweight readers or anyone who doesn't measure up to societies standards of attractiveness. To me equating ugly appearance with ugly personality is cheap. I also found the story gets off to a slow start. The first few chapters really focus on Harry's life with the Dursleys. I'm not sure they get this much attention the rest of the series.
But I digress. I'm here to talk about magic and miracles, the last thing my son and I discussed during a recent read. I've always maintained that the difference between magic and miracles is that magic is something that can be learned and then used to bend the natural world to your will through supernatural means. The lie of magic is that the power is within yourself and you can make things happen according to your will whenever you like. Miracles on the other hand are granted at the discretion of God. The teachings of some television preachers notwithstanding, they cannot be summoned up on demand by the faithful to get whatever we want. There is no formula to follow that will give you a guaranteed outcome with miracles. The truth of miracles is that the power is within God and He can, when he chooses, make things happen according to His will.
But neither miracles nor miracles accomplish what we think they will. They do not solve the most pressing problems of the human condition. We've come to believe that convenience, which is often the province of both magic and miracles--an invisibility cloak, water into wine, flying on a broomstick or walking on water--will make us happy. One of the things I like about Harry Potter is that it makes abundantly clear that there are things magic cannot fix. Purpose in life, peace of mind, happy relationships, finding and keeping love cannot bye produced with the wave of a wand (or I would argue, a miraculous intervention). The magical folk that populate the series are no more problem free than the Muggles (non-magical, "regular" people). Indeed they deal with additional problems that are a direct result of the magical world they inhabit. I'm reminded of Jesus who had the miraculous powers of divinity at His command, but also had temptations we will never face precisely because of His divine access to miracles.
My son and I observed that if we were to bring people from the Biblical times to our modern age much of what we consider ordinary from our self-powered vehicles to microwave ovens to television to telephones (not to mention the smart variety) would appear either dangerously magical or astonishingly miraculous to them. We had a lot of fun picturing their reactions to all the modern technological advances that we take for granted. We live in a world where we are pretty close to the equivalent of waving a wand and almost instantaneously receiving what we want. Of course there's always more that we can't get instantly and thus remains part of the appeal of the magical or miraculous. I just think maybe we've failed to realize that no matter how much more magic we bring into our lives, it will never be the answer to the most important questions.
Of course the ultimate wish is one that can't be conquered by magic, only by miracle: the defeat of death. Yet even this victory, which we all yearn for, would only have meaning in a world where the other problems--finding purpose, peace of mind, and happy, loving relationships were resolved. Our hope as Christians, is not just in resurrection. It's life restored in a world returned to it's sinless state where selfishness, pride, hate, illness and all the rest no longer have a place. That's the only miracle worth pursuing and no magic trick will get us there.
Year End Reading Round Up
This has been a really great year for reading for me. After years of only reading in the summer it's nice to have reading be a part of my daily life again. Right now my pattern is to alternate between fiction and non-fiction. So this list has four novels and three non-fiction works (I'm currently reading the memoir Unfollow by Megan Phelps-Roper. Review to come!) Here's the books I read this past fall, listed in order of how much I liked them for your convenience!
Must Read
Educated by Tara Westover
Run, don't walk to your nearest bookstore and get this book. This powerful memoir of Dr. Westover's early life growing up in a survivalist family that didn't believe in schools or modern medicine will astonish you. Westover taught herself enough math to get an ACT score sufficient to gain entrance into Brigham Young University. She sat in a classroom for the first time in her life as a seventeen year old college freshman. She would go on to complete her degree, spend time at Harvard, and eventually earn her graduate degree and PhD from Cambridge University. Her story of tenderness and abuse, family ties and estrangement is gripping, compelling, unforgettable. Educated is the story of one woman's journey to knowing her own mind and it resonated deeply with me. Look for another blog soon where I'll be reflecting on the tremendous impact of this book on my life. And spoiler alert, you'll see her name on my annual list of heroes and inspirations coming out next week!
Recommended
Big Little Lies by Liane Moriarty
This novel, which inspired the HBO series of the same name, was such an enjoyable read. Moriarty's characters are vivid and fully-realized. Her dialogue is witty and sharp. Her pace is engaging. And the plot (if you haven't seen the show, which I had) keeps you guessing until the end. The big mystery in this novel is not just whodunnit but also who it got done to! It's not till the end of the book that we find out the identities of both the killer and the victim. The Australian setting is different from the Southern California backdrop of the TV series, but the themes of friendship, secrets, betrayal work in any setting. I'm still tinkering with the draft of my own first novel. If it reads anything like Big Little Lies when I'm done, I'll feel pretty good.
Born a Crime by Trevor Noah
The comedian's memoir of growing up in South Africa at the tail end of apartheid is funny (naturally) but also moving, revealing, and thought-provoking. I like Trevor Noah a lot--I think he's filled John Stewart's shoes well at The Daily Show. His book showcases the same wit and insight that makes his show such a treat. It's remarkable to learn the extraordinary circumstances of this wildly successful man's childhood. The title comes from the fact that his birth was literally a crime. Sex between white and non-white people was a crime in South Africa at the time and Noah stood as proof of his parents' lawbreaking. In his earliest days he literally had to be kept in hiding to prevent his parents arrest. More than Trevor Noah's story, it is also a beautiful tribute to the indomitable spirit of his mother.
The Handmaid's Tale by Margret Atwood
I'd seen and liked the Hulu show and finally got around to reading the source material. Atwood did not disappoint. The show remained surprisingly faithful to the book with a few departures. Atwood had the Waterfords as older than depicted in the show and she leaves the fate of Luke unknown. Other than that viewers of the show will find the book very familiar territory. (and vice versa). Atwood imagines a future in which the the United States has been taken over by a radically theocratic government of which the extreme subjection of women is its key feature. A mysterious inability of most women to conceive provides justification for the Christian radicals in control to designate the few fertile women left as Handmaids. The Handmaids are tasked with producing children on behalf of the barren wives of the leaders of the new order (think of the Biblical story where Rachel provides her handmaid to Jacob when she can't conceive). One really cool addition not included in the show (for obvious reasons when you want to have future seasons) is the "historical note" at the very end. This sudden pulling back from one woman's dystopian tale to the larger sweep of human history is profound on many levels.
Nine Perfect Strangers by Liane Moriarty
I picked up Nine Perfect Strangers after reading Big Little Lies. When I really like a book I'm always interested in what else the author might have produced and this book, Moriarty's most recent, met the expectations set by her previous work. In this story the aforementioned strangers meet at a retreat center, each with their own reasons for needing a cleanse, detox, or reset. As they get to know one another they also begin to realize that the owner of the retreat center has some methods that are, to put it mildly, highly unorthodox. While not quite as good as Lies, Nine Perfect Strangers is a solid, entertaining read.
Leave it on the Shelf
Chances Are by Richard Russo
My expectations were high when I began this book. Russo is a Pulitzer prize winning author and the premise seemed intriguing: three old friends meet up at an old hangout some forty years after the mysterious disappearance of the woman all three of them loved. What happened to Jayce is the central mystery of the story. But for some reason I never really connected with Chances Are and I'm not sure why. I wasn't drawn to any of the three main characters--two of whom alternate chapters narrating the story, the third only tells his own story late in the book for what in retrospect are predictable reasons. Maybe it's because it was a Boomer tale that deals with the 60's, the Vietnam War, and a stage of male life that is still another twenty years off for me. Maybe it was that I didn't find the portrayal of Jayce and her friendship with the men believable. She felt less like a real woman and more like a man's idealized fantasy--a manic pixie dream girl. Whatever the reason this book didn't speak to me. Take your chances with Chances Are if you like. Maybe you'll like it better than I did.
Kingdom of Lies by Kate Fazzini
I selected this book intrigued by the promise of a book that would reveal the secrets of hackers, identity thieves, and other criminals of the digital age told in a face-paced, novelistic style. It was a letdown. Much of the book felt like a song building to a crescendo that never comes. There was a tone of urgency in each chapter that consistently failed to pay off with any new revelations or insights. The pace was quick and jaunty but in the end I didn't feel I'd really gone anywhere. This collection of disparate hacker types across the world never coalesced into anything meaningful or insightful. I don't know much more about the how and why of hackers and identity thieves than I did at the beginning. Fazzini promises a lot, but like that Nigerian prince who would like to gift you with millions of dollars, she fails to deliver. At least with Kingdom of Lies the only cost to you is the cover price (or in my case the five minute drive to return it to the library). Or better yet, like you would the email from the Nigerian prince, ignore it in the first place.
Must Read
Educated by Tara Westover
Run, don't walk to your nearest bookstore and get this book. This powerful memoir of Dr. Westover's early life growing up in a survivalist family that didn't believe in schools or modern medicine will astonish you. Westover taught herself enough math to get an ACT score sufficient to gain entrance into Brigham Young University. She sat in a classroom for the first time in her life as a seventeen year old college freshman. She would go on to complete her degree, spend time at Harvard, and eventually earn her graduate degree and PhD from Cambridge University. Her story of tenderness and abuse, family ties and estrangement is gripping, compelling, unforgettable. Educated is the story of one woman's journey to knowing her own mind and it resonated deeply with me. Look for another blog soon where I'll be reflecting on the tremendous impact of this book on my life. And spoiler alert, you'll see her name on my annual list of heroes and inspirations coming out next week!
Recommended
Big Little Lies by Liane Moriarty
This novel, which inspired the HBO series of the same name, was such an enjoyable read. Moriarty's characters are vivid and fully-realized. Her dialogue is witty and sharp. Her pace is engaging. And the plot (if you haven't seen the show, which I had) keeps you guessing until the end. The big mystery in this novel is not just whodunnit but also who it got done to! It's not till the end of the book that we find out the identities of both the killer and the victim. The Australian setting is different from the Southern California backdrop of the TV series, but the themes of friendship, secrets, betrayal work in any setting. I'm still tinkering with the draft of my own first novel. If it reads anything like Big Little Lies when I'm done, I'll feel pretty good.
Born a Crime by Trevor Noah
The comedian's memoir of growing up in South Africa at the tail end of apartheid is funny (naturally) but also moving, revealing, and thought-provoking. I like Trevor Noah a lot--I think he's filled John Stewart's shoes well at The Daily Show. His book showcases the same wit and insight that makes his show such a treat. It's remarkable to learn the extraordinary circumstances of this wildly successful man's childhood. The title comes from the fact that his birth was literally a crime. Sex between white and non-white people was a crime in South Africa at the time and Noah stood as proof of his parents' lawbreaking. In his earliest days he literally had to be kept in hiding to prevent his parents arrest. More than Trevor Noah's story, it is also a beautiful tribute to the indomitable spirit of his mother.
The Handmaid's Tale by Margret Atwood
I'd seen and liked the Hulu show and finally got around to reading the source material. Atwood did not disappoint. The show remained surprisingly faithful to the book with a few departures. Atwood had the Waterfords as older than depicted in the show and she leaves the fate of Luke unknown. Other than that viewers of the show will find the book very familiar territory. (and vice versa). Atwood imagines a future in which the the United States has been taken over by a radically theocratic government of which the extreme subjection of women is its key feature. A mysterious inability of most women to conceive provides justification for the Christian radicals in control to designate the few fertile women left as Handmaids. The Handmaids are tasked with producing children on behalf of the barren wives of the leaders of the new order (think of the Biblical story where Rachel provides her handmaid to Jacob when she can't conceive). One really cool addition not included in the show (for obvious reasons when you want to have future seasons) is the "historical note" at the very end. This sudden pulling back from one woman's dystopian tale to the larger sweep of human history is profound on many levels.
Nine Perfect Strangers by Liane Moriarty
I picked up Nine Perfect Strangers after reading Big Little Lies. When I really like a book I'm always interested in what else the author might have produced and this book, Moriarty's most recent, met the expectations set by her previous work. In this story the aforementioned strangers meet at a retreat center, each with their own reasons for needing a cleanse, detox, or reset. As they get to know one another they also begin to realize that the owner of the retreat center has some methods that are, to put it mildly, highly unorthodox. While not quite as good as Lies, Nine Perfect Strangers is a solid, entertaining read.
Leave it on the Shelf
Chances Are by Richard Russo
My expectations were high when I began this book. Russo is a Pulitzer prize winning author and the premise seemed intriguing: three old friends meet up at an old hangout some forty years after the mysterious disappearance of the woman all three of them loved. What happened to Jayce is the central mystery of the story. But for some reason I never really connected with Chances Are and I'm not sure why. I wasn't drawn to any of the three main characters--two of whom alternate chapters narrating the story, the third only tells his own story late in the book for what in retrospect are predictable reasons. Maybe it's because it was a Boomer tale that deals with the 60's, the Vietnam War, and a stage of male life that is still another twenty years off for me. Maybe it was that I didn't find the portrayal of Jayce and her friendship with the men believable. She felt less like a real woman and more like a man's idealized fantasy--a manic pixie dream girl. Whatever the reason this book didn't speak to me. Take your chances with Chances Are if you like. Maybe you'll like it better than I did.
Kingdom of Lies by Kate Fazzini
I selected this book intrigued by the promise of a book that would reveal the secrets of hackers, identity thieves, and other criminals of the digital age told in a face-paced, novelistic style. It was a letdown. Much of the book felt like a song building to a crescendo that never comes. There was a tone of urgency in each chapter that consistently failed to pay off with any new revelations or insights. The pace was quick and jaunty but in the end I didn't feel I'd really gone anywhere. This collection of disparate hacker types across the world never coalesced into anything meaningful or insightful. I don't know much more about the how and why of hackers and identity thieves than I did at the beginning. Fazzini promises a lot, but like that Nigerian prince who would like to gift you with millions of dollars, she fails to deliver. At least with Kingdom of Lies the only cost to you is the cover price (or in my case the five minute drive to return it to the library). Or better yet, like you would the email from the Nigerian prince, ignore it in the first place.
Aug 16, 2019
More Summer Reading Recommendations
We are in the tale end of summer but it's not too late to pick up a good book. Here are four of my latest reads and my thoughts on them. You might see something you like!
Missoula: Rape & the Justice System in a College Town by John Krakauer.
I picked up this book because of the author more than subject matter. I have been a long time fan of Krakauer and his books never fail to shake me to my core. Missoula was no exception. It’s a harsh indictment of the rape culture that saturates not just our college campuses but our society. Like all his books Missoula made me think hard and challenged my assumptions. I highly recommend the book, with the caveat that, while well-paced and easy to read, the subject matter is dealt with explicitly. As a result it can be upsetting at times. I felt pretty gloomy at points (it probably didn’t help that I was also watching a couple of episodes a day of The Handmaid’s Tale at the same time). Frankly addressing the problem of sexual assault has gained new traction in this age of #metoo but these kinds of crimes have been happening for a long time. I personally know of at least two women during my college days who experience acquaintance rape, and chances are you know someone too, whether you realize it or not. My hope and prayer is that this culture will change. Krakauer’s book is a step in that direction.
The late Toni Morrison declared this book required reading and I have to agree. This book has been on my reading list for a couple of years now, and I finally got to it. It hit hard. For African-American readers there is much to relate to. For everyone else this slender volume written as an extended letter to Coate’s son is a vital insight to what it means to grow up black in America. Perhaps one of the most necessary shifts in our national understanding of racism is recognizing it as an institutional systemic problem rooted in power, greed, fear, and desperate clinging to control (Coates describes this as the Dream), rather than--as is commonly understood--an individual problem rooted in hatred. Most telling is that the police shooting that haunts Coates throughout much of the book is that of Prince Jones. Jones was an admired acquaintance of Coates from Howard University and was shot by a black officer in a case of mistaken identity. The issue is not the individual racism, or even the skin color of the officer, but rather the system that we all live in that puts a low value on black life. My only quibble with Between the World and Me was its pessimism. Still, though Coates does not have religious faith, his book is prophetic and searing.
Becoming by Michelle Obama
Becoming was an engaging read. I felt like I really got a sense of who she is and also got some fascinating insights into her relationship with Barack Obama. They are very different personalities, and though often I get told I remind people of the former president, I think in many ways I’m a lot more like Michelle. There were a few parts where the pace dragged but others that were quite compelling. Her memories of her growing up years and her experience with the presidential campaign and entering the White House were among my favorite sections. I wish that some of my conservative friends would read the book. They’d find themselves hard-pressed to describe Michelle Obama as anyone other than a good person who loves her country and did her best to make America a better place. That’s something we all strive for.
Becoming was an engaging read. I felt like I really got a sense of who she is and also got some fascinating insights into her relationship with Barack Obama. They are very different personalities, and though often I get told I remind people of the former president, I think in many ways I’m a lot more like Michelle. There were a few parts where the pace dragged but others that were quite compelling. Her memories of her growing up years and her experience with the presidential campaign and entering the White House were among my favorite sections. I wish that some of my conservative friends would read the book. They’d find themselves hard-pressed to describe Michelle Obama as anyone other than a good person who loves her country and did her best to make America a better place. That’s something we all strive for.
The Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick.
Most of the time the book is better than the movie (or TV series). This is not one of those times. Philip K. Dick’s sci-fi novel was the inspiration for the Amazon series of the same title, but the book is different in a lot of ways. And while it’s not exactly boring, it’s not near as interesting as the first season of the show. (And actually reminds me a lot of the third season which is not so compelling. While I finished Season 1 in just a few days, I still haven’t gotten around to finishing the third season which I began around a year ago.) Dick’s book lacks the urgent plot development of the TV series. There’s no underground resistance, no mysterious murders, just an underwhelming attempt on the life of German spy. Viewers of the show will note that some favorites are missing from the book entirely. There’s no kempetai Inspector and Obergruppenfuhrer, which is a shame because those were two of my favorite story lines. And in the book The Grasshopper Lies Heavy is a book not a series of films. My recommendation is to stick with Season 1 of the show--maybe even Season 2 and sikp the book.
Missoula: Rape & the Justice System in a College Town by John Krakauer.
I picked up this book because of the author more than subject matter. I have been a long time fan of Krakauer and his books never fail to shake me to my core. Missoula was no exception. It’s a harsh indictment of the rape culture that saturates not just our college campuses but our society. Like all his books Missoula made me think hard and challenged my assumptions. I highly recommend the book, with the caveat that, while well-paced and easy to read, the subject matter is dealt with explicitly. As a result it can be upsetting at times. I felt pretty gloomy at points (it probably didn’t help that I was also watching a couple of episodes a day of The Handmaid’s Tale at the same time). Frankly addressing the problem of sexual assault has gained new traction in this age of #metoo but these kinds of crimes have been happening for a long time. I personally know of at least two women during my college days who experience acquaintance rape, and chances are you know someone too, whether you realize it or not. My hope and prayer is that this culture will change. Krakauer’s book is a step in that direction.
Between the World and Me by Na-Tahesi Coates
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