Dispatch from Coronaville: Leveling Down

 

This past Thursday, Franklin County, Ohio dropped to Level 2 in our four level guidance system for the pandemic. We have leveled down!  So what does that mean?  Level 2 or Orange in Ohio means that we are in "a public emergency, increased exposure and spread. Exercise high degree of caution."  Sounds pretty bad right?  But it's better than "Public emergency, very high exposure and spread, limit activities as much as possible." That's Level 3 where we've been at for weeks.

And how exactly does one change levels?  This handy three minute video explains each of the four levels as well as breaks down the seven indicators or "strikes" that determine what level the county is assigned. The fewer indicators that are met the better we're doing.  In moving to Level 2, four of the seven indicators have not been met: new cases had not increased for five consecutive days, new outpatient visits and hospital admissions have not increased, and our ICU occupancy threshold has not been crossed. 

So what does Level 2 mean for us?  Well, for one thing it means, according to the Department of Public Health,  that schools may reopen if they choose.  While many districts are planning to stick to remote instruction for now, others are rushing to reopen in-person instruction--some as soon as this Monday. My school has already been mandated by our conference to remain remote-only through Christmas so leveling down isn't changing anything for us.

I do wonder if our excitement over leveling down is perhaps premature. I wonder if these schools racing to open up won't find themselves rushing to shut down again in a few weeks time if we level back up (or worse yet, just deciding to take the gamble and stay open until an outbreak forces a shut down). I feel like a more sustained decline would be a better signal to let down our guard.  Also, I've been privately tracking our cases in Franklin county daily and what I've found is that Franklin County has had an increase in new cases for the past five days after hitting a low of 91 new cases on July 23 (see my graph by clicking on this link . The other two counties represented on the graph are Lake County in Florida where my mom and siblings live and Montgomery County in the Dayton area where Barbara's mom lives):  So I'm not sure what I'm missing that the experts at public health are seeing.

My data represents the numbers as of yesterday, Friday, August 28. I collected my numbers and charted my graph yesterday but was too tired to put it all together so I'm doing that now.  As of yesterday we have had a total of 5,928,020 cases of COVID-19 and 181,684 deaths. This means we've added 147,425 new cases in the previous three days and 3,676 new deaths. This is quite a bit more than I'd predicted: (44,000 more cases and almost 2000 more deaths). The general decline we'd been seeing seems to be stalling out. Hopefully this is just a pause and by Monday, August 31 we'll see cases and deaths dropping again. Nonetheless, I'll predict a total of 6,082,149 cases by Monday, and 185,499 deaths.

If everything was down three days ago, everything is back up today (or yesterday anyway). All three states showed increases in new cases, with Nebraska in particular showing a large bump. It makes me wonder if the dramatic declines of recent days are more about delays in reporting, rater than a legitimate decrease that will sustain over time. 

Total Cases

Florida: 615,798 total cases, 2.8% of the population

Ohio: 120,124 total cases, 1% of the population

Nebraska: 33,436 total cases, 1.7% of the population

New deaths are up this time around as well. This time it's Ohio that's showing the greatest surge, with the second highest number of deaths in three days for the state this summer.  We've already established that when it comes to the death data, there is always an up and down pattern, but this increase seems to be significantly more than a simple correction of delays in reporting. It will be interesting to see where things seem to be headed in the final two posts of this series.

Total Deaths

Florida: 10,956, a rate of 1.8%

Ohio: 4,105, a rate of 3.4%

Nebraska: 399, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Q & A

So not too long ago a friend of mine shared this post on Facebook by someone who "just had a few questions."  I thought to myself, well, shoot, I might just have a few answers.  Two people, who really are the farthest thing from experts on the matter at hand, both waxing eloquent in a smug, faux plain-spoken, truth-telling fashion. Why not?

Q:  Anyone out there who can tell me what our end game is with the covid 19? What is the magic formula that is going to allow us to sound the all clear? Is it zero cases? The only way that will happen is if we just stop testing and stop reporting.

A: Well, not exactly. There's a number of ways the end game could take shape. We have seen how the end game has played out in a number of other countries that have gotten the virus under control. New Zealand was able to go 102 days without a single new case, and then had an outbreak of four--four cases (at last check they're up to just over 100 cases in Auckland). Other countries, and even some states in the U.S. seem to have gotten the virus under control so that they can return to a semblance of pre-COVID normalcy. And then there's this fascinating piece on herd immunity by the New York Times. Here's a quote: "We’ve known from the beginning how the end will arrive. Eventually, the coronavirus will be unable to find enough susceptible hosts to survive, fading out wherever it briefly emerges." And then there's this article in The Atlantic  that discusses the possibility that COVID never goes away but instead becomes more infectious but less lethal, essentially becoming not unlike the common cold. 

So it appears that the scientific community understands a number of possible "end games" that could allow us to sound the all clear. It could be zero cases.  But it doesn't have to be.  And it certainly doesn't  have to happen only as result of halting testing and reporting.

Q: Is it a vaccine? It took 25 years for a chicken pox vaccine to be developed. The smallpox inoculation was discovered in 1796 the last known natural case was in 1977.

A: This is a bit misleading, because there wasn't a concerted effort to eradicate small pox until 1967 and even then the diseased had already been gone from the U.S. and Europe for 15 years prior to that. The Western world had long moved passed smallpox being a serious threat, well before the virus was eradicated. Polio, technically, has not been eradicated but the threat of the disease is virtually non-existent. Setting complete eradication as the benchmark for return to normal life is something you seem to have set up (that's called a straw man argument, btw), not something that is being advocated by the experts.

Q: We have a flu vaccine that is only 40 to 60% effective and less than half of the US population choose to get one, and roughly 20,000 Americans will die of the flu or flu complications. Oh, you'll mandate it, like other vaccines are mandated in order to attend school, travel to some foreign countries, etc. We already have a growing number of anti vaxxers refusing proven, tested, well known vaccines that have been administered for decades but aren’t necessarily safe!

A: There's well. . a lot going on in this question. I'm not sure what your point is about the flu vaccine. Based on my research there were 34,000 people who died from the flu in the 2018-2019 flu season, so your 20,000 seems a bit low. For comparison, we've had over 170,000 people die of COVID or COVID complications in five months, so even if the "COVID season" were coming to a close, which it does not appear to be doing, we're already at five times the death rate of the flu. As for the vaccine mandated--I"m not at all certain that the vaccine will be mandated. At least that's not what they are saying right now. Also you refer to the anti-vaxxers but your statement is contradictory. You say the vaccines are proven and tested but then also aren't necessarily safe. That's a lot to throw out there without some support or clarification.

Q: Do you really think people will flock to get a fast tracked, quickly tested vaccine, whose long term side effects and overall efficacy are anyone's best guess?

A: Well, one such vaccine has already been released in Russia, and no one outside of Russia is rushing to get it. So no.

Q: How long are we going to cancel and postpone and reconsider?

A: That's a very good question. Given the disorganized approach in this country, probably for quite awhile longer. It's the way we've chosen to do things here. We prefer a half-measures to a serious, coordinated, and focused effort to deal with this pandemic.

Q: You aren't doing in person school until second quarter? What if October's numbers are the same as August's?

A: Well, no we aren't considering in person until second semester at the soonest so October's numbers are not an issue. But there's a good chance we'll be doing this for the school year. I don't know where you live but there are a good number of private schools here in Ohio that are already offering in person instruction and in Florida, the governor has mandated that schools must offer in person instruction.

Q: You moved football to spring? What if next March is worse than this one was? When do we decide quality of life outweighs the risks?

A: I find it a little odd that, in your estimation, if next March is worse than this one, somehow that should be the point where we decide quality of life outweighs the risks. Shouldn't it go the other way around? As our numbers decline, quality of life outweighs the risk?

Q: I understand Covid can be deadly or very dangerous for SOME people, but so are strawberries and so is shellfish.

A: Well, no. Those aren't comparable to COVID. If you are not allergic to strawberries and shellfish then there is essentially zero risk. If you are severely allergic, you're guaranteed to be in potentially life-threatening distress if you consume them. COVID can be deadly or very dangerous for ANYONE, but the likelihood increases with age and other health factors. If we could determine for certain with a simple test that COVID presents zero risk to a person like we can with allergy testing, then I think our problem would be solved. If only it were that simple.

Q: We take risks multiple times a day without a second thought. We know driving a car can be dangerous, we don't leave it in the garage.

A: My friend, what you seem to be having trouble with is understanding that not all risks are the same. I think the real question is: How serious is the threat of the coronavirus? Driving is quite risky but we also have a significant amount of control over how risky that behavior is (though probably less control than we think, which is why people tend to fear flying more than driving even though it's infinitely safer; it's the illusion of control). If we can be sure we are awake and alert, not intoxicated or distracted, avoid driving recklessly, follow the rules of the road, and practice safety measures like wearing our seat belts we can manage our risk considerably. It would be interesting to learn how many people die in car wrecks that were taking all of the mentioned precautions. Not only that, but car accidents aren't infectious. Now it's a fair point that we can also manage our COVID risk but something tells me you're probably not interested in any kind of risk management either.

Q: We know the dangers of smoking, drinking and eating fried foods, we do it anyway. We speed, we don't buckle our seatbelts, we take more than directed. Quite a few people don't think twice about unprotected sex, they just hop right to it.

A: OK, now. I'm not sure what your point is here. People do dangerous things and often they pay the consequences in cancer, heart disease, deadly car wrecks, overdoses, venereal disease and unwanted pregnancy. What's the moral here? Live fast, die young? I suppose people can--and do--make those choices but in most of these situations the only people who suffer are the ones who made the choice (well, them and the people who mourn them). Not so with the coronavirus.

Q: Is hugging Grandma really more dangerous than rush hour on the freeway? Is going out with friends after work more risky than 4 day old gas station sushi? Or operating a chainsaw?

A: I'm guessing these are supposed to be rhetorical questions to which we all are supposed to know the answer is "no." But I suspect you don't know the answer to any of these questions anymore than I do. Thus the appropriate answer is "I don't know."

Q: When and how did we so quickly lose our free will?

A: Last I checked our free will is still alive and well across this great land, perhaps to our own detriment. Our absolute commitment to free will has made us the world leader in COVID cases and deaths. I don't think our independent streak is a bad thing. Neither is it inherently and always a good thing. It simply is. And in this case, it's probably not compatible with this particular kind of crisis. It is what it is.

Q: Is there a waiver somewhere I can sign that says, "I understand the risks, but I choose a life with Hugs and Smiles, and the State Fair and Concerts and Homecoming."

A: There a number of organizations that offer waivers. The president's Tulsa rally offered them. I think we all choose life with hugs and smiles and the state fair and concerts and homecoming. Of course those things aren't always on offer. Adults understand that we can't always have what we want. Children throw a fit because the ice cream store is closed.

Q: I understand that there is a minuscule possibility I could die, but I will most likely end up feeling like crap for a few days.

A: I'm wondering if you truly understand. Because it's not necessarily either death or "feel like crap for a couple of days."

Q: I understand I could possibly pass it to someone else, if I'm not careful, but I can pass any virus onto someone else.

A: Again I'm really not sure you do understand. While you can pass any virus on to someone else, not all viruses are the same. In your eagerness to hug grandma, you might pass on a cold virus which she will likely recover from, or you might pass on the coronavirus which might have much more severe consequences for Gram. But the important thing is that you got to live in a world of hugs. And I'm sure she--and you will--be glad for that hug as she fights for her life in the ICU before expiring maybe a few years sooner than she otherwise would have.

Q: I'm struggling to see where or how this ends.

A: I get it. It's hard to see when you're head is in the sand. It's right there, if you want to see it. However I would agree with you that the prognosis for the U.S. moving past this any time soon is not very good.

Q: We either get busy living or we get busy dying.

A: So. .. taking measures to combat the spread of the virus would be. .. "busy dying"? That doesn't quite make sense. You seem to be fond of smug, snappy questions and declarations that sound impressive and compelling when delivered rapid-fire, one after the other (Dang, he's just telling it straight!). But they don't bear up so well under examination, one at a time. It seems like busy living is what we are all trying to do, and busy dying is what is happening to us all anyway, despite our best efforts. We want to extend the living and postpone the dying. Yet we don't want to become so obsessed with staying alive that we forget to live. And we also don't want to live so recklessly that we cut short that living sooner than we're prepared for. Striking that balance is the essential task of mortal life. I think statements like yours oversimplify the complex calculus we all use to try to achieve that goal.

Q: When God decides it's your time, you don't get any mulligans, so I guess I would rather spend my time enjoying it and living in the moment and not worrying about what ifs and maybes, and I bet I'm not the only one.

A: You certainly are not. Screw it, whatever happens, happens is one way to approach this pandemic. Many have chosen that route. For most it works out, for a few it does not. I suppose it's your right. But if you or one of your like-minded fellows brings suffering or death to someone I love, I'm going to have something to say. And it won't be near as polite as this little Q & A session.

Q: (I copied this from a friend. Feel free to do the same.)

A: Maybe that's part of the problem. Maybe a little less copying from a friend and a little more thinking for yourself might be in order.

Q: I am over this I plan on moving forward with my life and enjoying it again. I feel a trip in my future.

A: Best of luck to you.

**smugly dusts hands, rolls eyes**

Well, now that's out of the way here's where we stand today. Our numbers are falling across the board and that's heartening. As of today, we've had a total of 5,780,595 total cases of COVID-19, of which 100,830 were added in the past three days. That's about 47,000 fewer cases than I predicted and the lowest number of new cases in a three day period since mid-June. Deaths are down as well, with only 1,779 new deaths out of a total of 178,008. This is approximately 500 deaths less than I predicted and considerably less than the September 11-every-three-days we faced during the height of this recent surge. We are now at a 1% increase in deaths, and if the downward trend continues we could see a rate of increase below 1% for the first time since the pandemic began! Based on these rates, I expect to see a total of 5,884,645 total cases by Friday, August 28 and 179,788 deaths.

Florida continues to decline in new cases, reaching it's lowest numbers since mid June. Ohio new cases are now lower than they were at their spring peak. And Nebraska's numbers are down too. Perhaps we are looking at a genuine decline in the virus!

Total Cases

Florida: 605,494 total cases, 2.8% of the population.

Ohio: 116,495 total cases, 1% of the population (actually, 0.996% but I'm rounding up)

Nebraska: 32,256 total cases, 1.7% of the population.

Florida appears to be defying the usual up and down pattern of deaths that have marked the data since the beginning of the pandemic. Today marks the fifth straight period of decrease--15 days, just over two weeks--in deaths in the state. This is exceedingly good news. Ohio and Nebraska are down in deaths for the second straight three-day period as well.

Total Deaths

Florida: 10,579, a rate of 1.7%

Ohio: 3,996, a rate of 3.4%

Nebraska: 387, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Chronic COVID

After today there's only four more Dispatches left in this blog series, and it's probably just as well. I think I've said just about everything there is to say about this pandemic. We've reached a point in this country where, due to our complete ineptitude, we have what I'd describe as a chronic COVID problem. I don't know that we'll ever get to the point where other nations have, where we get down to a handful of cases are able to safely but cautiously reopen for a bit until another spike comes along. If anything we will adjust to a steady stream of daily cases, managing to hobble along, half-open, half-closed as long as the hospitals can handle the caseloads.  We'll hope for a vaccine or maybe that the virus will eventually become less deadly even as it becomes more contagious. This will be an Afghanistan of pandemics for the U.S., a protracted conflict that we tend to ignore unless it affects us personally.

In the past three days our total number of COVID cases has risen to 5,679,765 adding 142,057 new cases. This is around 7000 or so fewer cases than I'd predicted--essentially within the margin of error. I'd say my prediction was spot on. Likewise my prediction for deaths was short by only 15. We have a total of 176,229 COVID deaths, 3,271 of which occurred in the past three days.  Accurate predictions simply mean that the rate of increase is remaining essentially the same, which means slightly more cases and deaths over time. This is consistent with the way the pandemic seems to be playing out in the United States. I predict 5,827,438 total cases by Tuesday, August 25 and 179,577 total deaths.

Florida's case numbers have bounced back up a little bit over the past three days.  This series won't likely last long enough for us to see how this plays out, but I suspect that Florida and Ohio will settle into a new normal of consistent numbers of new cases that are significantly higher than in the spring, increasing and decreasing from day to day but overall remaining steady. Nebraska will remain steady as well. This is what half-measures get us.

Total Cases: 

Florida: 597,589 total cases, 2.7% of the population

Ohio: 114,165 total cases, 0.98% of the population. Will the state hit 1% of the population infected before the Dispatch closes down?

Nebraska: 31,780 total cases, 1.6% of the population.

Florida's deaths have dropped for the fourth straight three-day period in a row. Good news right? Well, context is important here.  Deaths climbed so high this summer in Florida that a drop to 342 deaths doesn't even come close to the much lower death rates in the spring.  Even the spring peak was still one hundred deaths fewer than what we see right now. Ohio, on the other hand continues a steady stream of deaths but one that is far lower than in the spring.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 10,273, a rate of 1.7%

Ohio: 3,975, a rate of 3.5%

Nebraska: 382, a rate of 1.2%

Angry: What's Behind a Word

 

No, it's not what we're doing. Nobody gets to issue this pass. Not even your black friend.

What's up my ni. . . .

Yeah. You're not supposed to say that. Especially if you're white.  Why is that, you may wonder?  Why is it that an insult like "Karen" is considered "funny", but the N word can only be referred to by it's first letter? How come "cracker" and "honky" don't seem to be "as bad" as racial slurs towards black people? And why do black people "get" to use the word but no one else can?  That doesn't seem fair (though as an aside I've always felt it a bit strange that anyone would feel that someone "gets" to use the word, like it's some sort of black privilege).  Isn't hateful language, hateful language no matter who says it or who they say it about?

Yes, and no.  Yes, hateful language is never okay. If you are a decent person, a Christian, then hurling insults at one another is never acceptable. But no, unlike, human beings, not all hateful language is created equal. 

Here's the thing:  Black people aren't so precious and sensitive that we can't deal with racial hatred from a particular ignorant individual. As has been made abundantly clear in these Angry posts the struggle for civil rights in this country has never been primarily about getting people not to hate. It's always been about creating a more just system that treats everyone fairly, regardless of color. If we can achieve that goal, then let the haters hate, and we'll carry on.  The problem with the N word and other racial slurs directed towards black people isn't so much the hate in the word, but the power--and the danger--that word represents. 

Let's take another slur that sounds innocent on its face, but serves the same purpose. Boy.  As in "Hey, boy, you better watch yourself. Don't get uppity." or "Boy, bring me that hammer."  This slur like the N word is designed not just to insult, but to remind the person of their "place" in society. It is also a warning of what can happen to you if you forget that place. It's the power behind those words, the power to act with impunity on black people that makes my stomach churn when I hear it. The epithet yelled at you out the window of a passing car could potentially mean imminent violence--violence that is all the more likely to occur because the perpetrators know they likely won't be held accountable for what they do. On the other hand take your typical insults slung at white folk--"whitey, cracker, honkey, Karen. ." whatever. None of those words carry the weight of a society behind them that can make you suffer if it so chooses. Granted, in the worst case scenario, if you're surrounded by an angry crowd when you hear those words you might be in for a beating.  But those words suggest nothing about your "appropriate" place in society or the level of concern society has for you if you do get attacked. Racial slurs against people of color--especially, black people do.

Obviously when black people use these words among themselves they no longer carry that weight.  That said there is no agreement at all among black people that this word is "allowed."  There many black people who feel that the word should never be used, not by other black folk, not by anyone.  And then there are those for whom everything is nigga this and nigga that.  I myself never use the word; I don't even go for the less volatile, "Negro, please." But I understand those that do use it and when I hear the N word from the mouths of fellow black people I don't have that gut reaction of anxiety that I do when others use it. 

In the final analysis, it's what's behind the word--a racist system that for generations has worked to keep black people in their "place", by violence if necessary, even more than the word itself, that is most offensive.

Dispatch from Coronaville: On Faith, Fear, and Foolishness (And the Difference Between the Them)

 "The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself"

                                                      --Franklin D. Roosevelt

"Paranoia strikes deep. Into your life it will creep. It starts when you're always afraid; step out of line the man come and take you away."

                                                      --Buffalo Springfield, "For What It's Worth"

We should not live in fear.  This is a sentiment you'll hear a lot these days. Often attending that conviction, especially if one is from a religious background, is the belief that we "need to have faith and trust God." I agree with this worldview.  But I sometimes wonder where the line is.  Can we really do anything we want in a spirit of faith not fear, or is their a point where we've drifted in to foolishness?  How do we tell the difference between wise caution and paranoia,  between courageous faith and foolhardy recklessness?

 When FDR uttered those famous words about fear being the only thing to fear in his inaugural address in 1933, he wasn't saying that nothing fearful was happening in the land.  The nation was in the grip of the Great Depression, the worst economic disaster in American history. Indeed President Hoover, the previous president fumbled in his response to the economic devastation precisely because he didn't take the crisis seriously enough. He strongly believed that the economy would right itself and required little government intervention. Hoover perhaps didn't see clearly the fearful urgency of the moment. Roosevelt did, and his pitch was not that times aren't so bad. No, he was making the case that the United States--her people and her government--had the resources to handle the challenge of the Great Depression. Whatever problems might face the country, we were not to fear them because we had what it takes to deal with those problems.  The only thing that could stop the country from moving forward was paralyzing fear itself. The same is true of the many admonitions God made in the Bible to not be afraid. Jesus wasn't saying that there wasn't an actual storm so there was no need to fear; God wasn't saying there's no enemy army surrounding you.  He was saying, "Despite the terrifying circumstances that surround you, fear not.  I've got this."  As my friend Grant likes to say "God's got this." (Check out Grant's meditation on FDR and facing fear in this video. He's got a great series on the U.S. presidents that's worth checking out.)

But it's my opinion that when a lot of people say we "need to not live in fear" this is not what they mean. At least sometimes, this phrase is rooted in the belief there is nothing going on that is worthy of our concern. Any measures to address the spread of the coronavirus are labeled as "fear-based."  This is far more Hoover, than Roosevelt. Refusal to acknowledge the gravity of a situation is not fearless; its foolishness. Understandable foolishness rooted in wishful thinking, but foolishness nonetheless. People crying "peace and safety" when things are anything but peaceful or safe put themselves and others at risk.

Another thing is the assumption that  "it won't happen to me." There's is no courage in believing that nothing will happen to you or the people you love. I find it problematic when people say "God will take care of us. We just have to trust Him and be unafraid." Trust in God is absolutely the right thing. And faith that God can protect us is correct as well. But faith is the belief that ultimately that God will be with me, not a guarantee that no harm will befall me. The three Hebrew men that refused to bow to the golden idol said "We know that God can save us from the fiery furnace. He will rescue us from your power.  But even if He chooses not to we will never worship your idol." That is faith. That is trust. Like Job, who said "Though He slay Me, yet I will trust Him," this should be the mindset of those who believe they are called to take a risky stand. Not the assumption that me and my family will be spared, but even if we are not this is the right thing to do and we will stand firm.  

Which brings me to the question of when we should take that faithful, fearless stand.  I think the answer to that question is when it means taking a stand for the right.  When it comes to helping people in need--then putting our fate in the hands of God and taking the plunge is the right thing to do. There comes a time to put everything on the line--whether it was hiding runaway slaves along the Underground Railroad or Jews in the attic of your home in Nazi-occupied Europe (As an aside, I think its worth pointing out that these people were the exception, not the rule. They were disruptive, radical. We like to flatter ourselves that we would have done the same, but the reality is that if you're not a disruptive radical type now, its unlikely you would have been that type then). It may mean running into a burning building when others are running away, or dropping into enemy territory in the service or your country. It may mean wading into the floodwaters to help someone about to drown or donning mask and shield for another shift in the ICU or grocery store. Those are the times when we must not be afraid.  We must do what needs to be done, and trust God to see us--or at least the mission--through.  Faith takes over fear when something dangerous has to be done. 

Where things stand in our country, we are each free to decide for ourselves where courage is called for and when foolishness is to be avoided. I'm not here to judge those who are doing differently than I'm doing. There are schools that literally cannot afford to offer only remote instruction.  If they close doors to in-person classes they may not open for any kind of instruction again. There are families whose circumstances leave them no choice but to go to work and to send their kids to school, the virus notwithstanding.  In situations like this, fear has to be discarded, and faith must take hold.  

Not everyone has the luxury of staying home in these troubled times and it's easy for those of us who have the luxury to pronounce judgement on those who don't.  But I would also caution those quick to dismiss as merely fearful the people who opt to stay home from church, close the schoolhouse doors, or choose remote instruction for their child. What to you looks like "fear" to them may be wisdom. Whether you are acting out of a presumptuous belief that there is no danger or out of a courageous decision to brave the risks, even at potential cost to yourself and those you love, no one else can judge or know. Just make sure that you know.

"For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind."

                                                                                                                       --1 Timothy 2:7

I would venture to say that our cases nationally are continuing a very gradual decline. Our numbers have bounced back up in the past three days but are still the third lowest three-day number of new cases since mid-summer.  We have had a total of 5,537,708 cases of COVID-19, and of this number 147,968 occurred in the past three days. This about 18,000 more cases then I predicted. Unfortunately, deaths have not yet begun to decline meaningfully. 172,958 people have died of the virus, 3,293 of them in the last three days. This is 748 more deaths than I anticipated. Based on the rates represented by these numbers I would expect 5,687,226 total cases by Saturday, August 22 and 3,286 total deaths.

Florida is back on the charts. Here's hoping it remains there going forward.  I'm hoping for more of a downward trend in Ohio than I'm seeing. It appears as if the case rate may be stabilizing but at a higher level than was present in late spring and early summer.  We've yet to return to the lower numbers typical of that time. Nebraska on the other hand, while also stabilizing is doing so at a rate that's significantly lower than it's spring peak.

Total Cases

Florida: 584,039 total cases, 2.7% of the population

Ohio: 110,881 total cases, 0.95% of the population

Nebraska: 9,931 total cases, 1.6% of the population

Florida marks it 's third straight period of decline in deaths. This could be the precursor to a national decline in deaths as well. Ohio and Nebraska are back up in deaths, but essentially maintaining a more or less flat death rate. As with cases the death rate appears to be stabilizing but thankfully at a lower pace than the spring. Nebraska's death rate remains essentially flat. Between five and ten people on average pass away in Nebraska from the virus every three days.  That's pretty much unchanged since virtually the beginning of the pandemic.

Total Deaths

Florida: 9,931, a rate of 1.7%

Ohio: 3,907,  a rate of 3.5%

Nebraska: 373, a rate of 1.2%

Angry: What Matters (And What Doesn't) About Black Lives Matter

". . .Part of the Communistic element trying to tear down racial relations; trying to separate the races instead of bringing them together."

Sounds like a pretty typical criticism of Black Lives Matter doesn't it. Just another good American citizen concerned about the division that seems to be rampant these days.  And to think that people who express these views are treated as if they are the equivalent of some racist sheriff from the segregated South of the 1950's.

Of course, that's exactly who said this.  The quote above is by Sheriff Willis McCall, the Lake County, FL sheriff at the time that four young black men (well, three men and one fifteen year old boy) were falsely accused of raping a white woman. The year was 1949. McCall was incensed at the negative press he was receiving due to reporting about the vicious abuse the accused men suffered at the hands of McCall and his deputies as well as the attempts by McCall and the KKK to chase down and "punish" the black NAACP lawyers that defended the Groveland Four. One of the four was gunned down by law enforcement under McCall's leadership before ever being arrested  McCall would later go on to attempt to murder two more of the defendants after the Supreme Court ordered a retrial, successfully slaughtering one and seriously injuring the other. He absurdly claimed that they tried to escape while he was transporting them. It stunned me how familiar his line about civil rights activism causing "division" was. Truly there is nothing new under the sun. (Next time you're inclined to wax eloquent with these kinds of sentiments you might want to think about who would have agreed fervently with you 70 years ago).

I want to address two concerns in this post.  First I want to address sincere supporters of Black Lives Matter that are genuinely concerned about the agenda of the Black Lives Matter organization (which is distinct from both the slogan and the movement).  Secondly, I'd like to tackle those that have an issue with all of it--the slogan, the movement, the organization--those that feel that there is something hostile and racist in the very idea that black lives matter.

First the organization.  There's been an uptick in criticism of  the Black Lives Matter organization lately.  They have a Marxist agenda. They've been hijacked by leftist extremists that want to dismantle the nuclear family and promote the gay lifestyle. Someone on Facebook did a masterful job of dismantling these major critiques of Black Lives Matter. Her breakdown is now lost amidst weeks of additional chatter and because she's someone I don't know personally who happens to belong to the same Facebook group I do, I don't know how to track down her commentary. I'm going to try to do my own version here.

• Why shouldn't gay and trans black lives matter?  They are victimized and suffer vicious physical assaults at a far higher rate than other black people. Are we really arguing that their lives don't matter because we disagree with their  "lifestyle." While some might have moral objections to these individuals I think most wouldn't take it so far as saying that their lives are of little consequence and if they get murdered, who cares.  So the fact that the BLM organization highlights those black people who are most at risk for violent death at the hands of hate-filled individuals should not be a stumbling block.

• The fact that the founders are "trained Marxists" and that leftists support the idea that Black Lives Matter is irrelevant. Frankly, Communists, leftists, radical socialists, liberals, progressives--all of the above have always been supporters of civil rights. These same types of people supported the civil rights movement--the types of protests we now laud as acceptable and necessary. The Pulitzer-Prize winning  book Devil in the Grove; Thurgood Marshall, the Groveland Boys, and the Dawn of  a New America by Gilbert King where I learned about Sheriff Willis McCall, talks frankly about the Communist element that supported civil rights during that era,. King details the NAACP's efforts to sideline the Communist influence so as to not lose the support of the wider American public. The United States fought shoulder to shoulder with the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany.  The fact that they had a common enemy didn't tarnish the U.S. in any way. Neither should the leftist element in the Black Lives Matter organization tarnish the larger cause of fighting racism.

• The Black Lives Matter organization wants to dismantle nuclear family.  Reading this "goal" in context it clearly refers to the desire acknowledge that other family units are acceptable as well.  Their goal is not to dismantle the nuclear family per se, but to dismantle it's power position as the only acceptable family grouping, which makes it difficult for women to participate in activism since in this traditional model they are expected to be the sole family caregiver. Many non-Western families rely on a broader family model that includes grandparents, grown children, and other family members living in the same household who can help with the caregiving role, freeing up women who so desire to be more involved in activism. I've included the full text of this segment of their goals below (emphasis is mine):   

           "We make our spaces family-friendly and enable parents to fully participate with their children. We dismantle the patriarchal practice that requires mothers to work “double shifts” so that they can mother in private even as they participate in public justice work.

We disrupt the Western-prescribed nuclear family structure requirement by supporting each other as extended families and “villages” that collectively care for one another, especially our children, to the degree that mothers, parents, and children are comfortable."

I honestly don't see this stance as a game changer.  But here's the thing. If it really bothers you, don't send them any money. You can still believe that black lives matter and support the Black Lives Matter movement without lending a dime of support to this specific organization. Think of it this way.  If you had some "issue" with the VFW (Veterans of Foreign Wars) organization, that would not preclude you from supporting veterans in general or supporting a movement to meet the needs of Veterans of Foreign Wars. It's the same with BLM.

Now to the critics of BLM in general--the movement, the slogan, the very idea. The All Lives Matter crowd; I'm talking to you. Because, let's be honest. The same people lobbing these critiques of Black Lives Matter haven't come to this opposition of late with the "revelations"of a left-wing or gay friendly agenda. It's not because of the violence accompanying the protests.  It's not like these folk had Black Lives Matter signs in their yards and BLM t-shirts on their chests, but due to the "hijacking" they've had to regretfully pull up those signs and toss the t-shirt. These people opposed Black Lives Matter from the beginning, when it was first a rallying cry. The sentiment itself was offensive and upsetting; it had to be countered with "All Lives Matter."  The issues that motivated BLM were dismissed as non-issues and unnecessary agitating that, well you know "tear down racial relations and try to separate the races rather than bringing them together.  If we're being honest it's not about Marxism, or leftist politics or homosexuality or violence. It's the idea itself that gets under your skin. These latest criticisms are desperate attempt to draw back fellow white people who no longer see the phrase "Black Lives Matter" as a radical, hateful slogan.  It's the positive response from so many in the white community that has so many others worried.

For these folks, I think there is a deep misunderstanding (a willful misunderstanding, in my opinion) about what Black Lives Matter means. From the jump, they have understood that Black Lives Matter means Black Lives Matter and Other Lives Don't. Or Black Lives Matter More Than Other Lives.  That has never been the case, but it doesn't matter how often this is explained, there are those who refuse to accept any other definition of the phrase than what they have decided it means. With the impassioned questions about why people aren't taking to the streets on behalf of Cannon Hinnant the five year old boy who was brutally murdered by a black man, I'm realizing that these people don't understand the movement any better than the slogan. They think that the movement is about protesting that George Floyd or Breonna Taylor was killed--and perhaps it is to a degree--but primarily it is about the fact that they were killed and justice was not served. Evil people will do evil things. We get that.  We even understand that racist evil people will do racist evil things.  But as long as those evil people are forced to account for their actions, there won't be any protests.  It's the fact that these people are killed and society acts--by it's refusal to hold the killers accountable whether through bad laws, or a legal safe haven for them--as if it doesn't matter that they died.  Tupac said it well:  "Cop give a damn about a negro, pull the trigger kill a  n**** he's a hero, give the crack to the kids who the hell cares, one less hungry mouth on the welfare."  In essence, our society says in countless ways that black lives don't matter.  We're simply saying, black lives matter too, just like everyone else's. That's what we are protesting.

There's nothing wrong with saying Cannon's name. What happened to him was more than tragic; it was hideous. What kind of sick monster shoots a five year old child? It hurts my heart every time I think about it. But all that can be done is being done to bring his killer to justice. Nothing will bring this little boy back, nothing can take away the unimaginable pain his parents are going through. The same is true of the people who loved Emmett Till and Tamir Rice. This is the shared agony that we all experience in this sinful world, regardless of race, where evil people murder innocents for no reason at all.  The difference is Rice's killers still walk the streets, free men.  And after all these years Till's killers were never brought to justice and the woman who accused him still lives, with the evil she did unaccounted for. That is why we #saytheirnames.  And we will keep saying them until we see a a more just system in this country. We will keep saying Black Lives Matter until they actually do. Only then will we stop saying it.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Corona At the Door

 I'm currently in quarantine.

 

Thankfully, it appears that I'm negative for the virus. I just got my test results back today. But it's recommended that you complete your 14 days of quarantine even if you get a negative test result. Thankfully, it's relatively easy for me to do that so that's what I'll do.

It's been an interesting experience, the past few days.  Corona at last arrived at my door, but thankfully the locks held. I was exposed on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. I got the first hint that I might have been exposed Wednesday night and that was confirmed on Thursday when the person I'd been around tested positive.  Here's what I've learned from having the virus at my doorstep.

In Ohio, to get faster results on a test, you need to get a doctor's order.  But doctors generally won't issue you an order to get tested unless you are showing symptoms. I was told by my doctor's office that they just don't have enough tests. I ended up going to an Urgent Care place on Thursday that takes walk ins.  The wait time for results is 72 hours.

I dreaded the test almost more than the virus itself (yes, I know that is irrational). I'd seen the pictures of the people grimacing with that extra long Q-tip up their nose. My nose is very sensitive and I just knew it was going to be agony.  It turned out not to be too bad. I mean it was not pleasant--a kind of burning, stinging sensation, but it was very quick, just a few seconds and it was over. 

I didn't feel very worried, but I was a bit more aware of sensations in my body.  Is that a tightness in my chest? My skin feels a bit hot? Do I have a fever? But I figured that was just my over-active imagination and my daily temperature tests and lack of cough indicated I was just fine. 

I learned the difference between quarantine and isolation. Quarantine is what you do to ensure that you are not sick. Isolation is what you do when you are sick and want to avoid infecting others.  During the few days I was waiting for the test results to come back I inhabited a sort of middle ground between the two. I slept in the guest room and used one bathroom, avoided hugging my family (that was hard; and I'm not a hugger), and let Babs handle the cooking (though I still did the dishes). Other than that I more or less lived my normal life. 

That's  my story and I'm hoping there will be nothing more to add!

The news is pretty good on the national scale as well today. Cases and deaths are down over the past three days, those deaths not significantly so. The only possible caveat is that testing has dropped dramatically across the country as well. That's not ideal, as we can't really say if the spread is slowing or if we are simply detecting fewer cases.  Hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks should tell the story. You can stop testing, but you can't stop the virus from putting people in the hospital and killing them.  If we don't see a significant decline in deaths in the days ahead we'll know that the decline in new cases may not be the good news we thought. But today, at least, we can be cautiously optimistic. 5,389,740 total cases, an increase of only 129,000 cases in the past three days.  This is the lowest number of new cases since late June and about 40,000 fewer than I predicted.  Deaths are lower than three days ago but higher than six days ago, so no significant change there: 169,665 total deaths, 2,5423 of which were new. That's about 1700 fewer than I predicted.  Based on these numbers I'd be expecting 5,519,094 total cases by Wednesday, August 19. There should also be 172,210 total deaths.

Numbers have dropped quite a bit across all three benchmark states. Florida is still not back on the chart with 16,279 cases but it's still the second lowest number of new cases for the Sunshine State since June. Ohio is registering it's lowest number of new cases since early July, and Nebraska it's lowest numbers since July 20. So it's looking good.

Total Cases
Florida: 573,408 total cases, 2.6% of the population.

Ohio: 107,674 total cases, 0.92% of the population.

Nebraska: 30,241 total cases, 1.6% of the population

Deaths are down as well.  Florida just barely edges on to the chart over this three day periods, while Ohio notches a modest decline. Nebraska has had just one person lose their life to the virus in the past three days.

Total Deaths

Florida: 9,451, a rate of 1.6%

Ohio: 3,824, a rate of 3.6%

Nebraska: 363, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Here's to Fifty and Fifty More: Happy Birthday Babs!

 Today is Barbara's birthday!  My wife turned 50 today, a major life milestone and before we get into the usual coronavirus stuff, I want to wish her a very happy birthday!

Our birthdays are only ten days (and three years) apart, and they are usually not celebrated very well. With both of us being teachers, August is always a hectic month.  We are always super busy at this time rushing to prepare for a new school year. There's generally not much time between meetings and planning and class room preparations to take time out for some of our favorite things. Indeed, when we lived on Saipan my birthday would literally get skipped as we left principal's meetings and new teacher orientation in Hawaii on August 2 and arrived in Saipan in the early morning hours of August 4.  Even today as I write I've spent all morning in Zoom meetings, Barbara's on one now, and I have another one coming up in less than half an hour. There will be a cake and a chorus of happy birthday from me and the boys but that will probably be about it.

Thankfully, with more than a little help from my friends, I was able to pull together something really special for Barbara's 50th this past Sunday. I virtually gathered about 50 of her family, friends, former students and colleagues--all loved ones, some from each of the five decades of her life so far--to wish her happy birthday and describe a special memory they share with Babs. I figured it would run maybe an hour.

A sampling of Barbara's birthday party guests on Zoom. This photo was taken early on in the party. Many of these guests would eventually leave after having shared their stories, while others joined later in the evening. From the TOP ROW, left to right: Joy Lacorte (former Grades 1-2 student from Saipan), Barbara and Me, my uncle Roland Thomson, Carol Paez (Barbara's best friend, who lives in Oregon), Pastor Mesikt Idechong(former second grade student from Palau), SECOND ROW: Tess Marhberg (fellow student missionary from Babs' year in Palau), Barbara's uncle Gene Brocke, Everdil Tohill (former second grade student from Palau), Barbara's cousin Connie and her husband Larry Norman, George and Denise Hartshorn (dear friends from Saipan and the parents of one of Barbara's former students, Leah, who was also there though not in the frame at the moment), THIRD ROW: Gina Rankin (wonderful friend from Saipan), I actually can't make out who this person is, Keisuke Yoshida (former grades 1-2 student from Saipan), Trish Parker (fellow student missionary from Babs' year in Palau), FOURTH ROW: my sister Dawn and two of her sons, Barbara's mother Carol Leen, Heidi Starling (a treasured friend from our days as students at Andrews University), Marc & Lisa Lavalas (Lisa is a co-worker of mine), my mother Rosalind Maycock, BOTTOM ROW: Susan Deen (Barbara's high school friend), Virle Gaytin (Barbara's friend, colleague, and indispensable right hand as school secretary when Babs was principal of Saipan SDA School)and Joeie Verona (one of the teachers at Saipan SDA School who began working there during Barbara's tenure), Lydia Levy (Barbara's current colleague at Worthington Adventist Academy ),  Robyn Bernard, not pictured, but that phone icon is her--she called in and remarkably remained on the phone the entire 4.5 hours despite not being able to see anything (Barbara's best childhood friend from her Cincinnati days), Robin Tucker (one of Barbara's former colleagues at WAA).

Four and a half hours later, one of the most remarkable experiences of my life came to an end.  I knew Babs was a good teacher, an able administrator, a great organizer, a trustworthy friend, and a solid Christian. I had no idea the impact that all of those qualities had on the people in her life (though I guess I should have, since I've experienced them all myself). As person after person shared heartfelt stories of the difference she's made in their lives, we were all moved by the impact of one ordinary person on so many others. It was like It's a Wonderful Life come to life.  

When it came to the soursop tree story, there was hardly a dry eye in the Zoom. Ever since she taught her second grade class as a student missionary, on the last day of school she's always asked every class to promise to meet her under the biggest soursop tree in heaven. It's a challenge to them to hold on to their faith and love of Jesus through all the challenges that life will bring them. It's a message of her love for them and her desire to be connected to them always--in this life and in eternity.  More than one student recollected that promise they made to meet Ms. Leen (or Mrs. Maycock) under the soursop tree, and in some cases it was that promise that literally kept them going when all seemed lost.

There's only one person who looks fifty in this photo, and it's not the birthday girl. We took this photo after the end of the party. Man, she's hot!

Barbara said it was the best birthday party she'd ever had, and, despite the length, so many of her guests said the same thing. My takeaway, other than a sense of awe at this incredible woman that I've known for more than half my life, was that this was something worth repeating. This is the sort of thing we normally do when it's too late--at memorial services where the person can no longer hear our words of love and appreciation, nor can they respond (and Barbara's desire to respond personally to each of her guests was at least part of what added to the long evening). I would encourage you not to wait. Look for a good excuse to plan a gathering like this for someone you love. Reach out to people that they have known and love--get them together on Zoom or Go To Meeting or Google Meet and have them share their stories. I promise, you--and they--will never be the same.

In these troubled times we need to remind those around us that they are loved, that they make a difference, that they matter to someone. Whether five, fifteen, or fifty it's the perfect gift.

We got this gorgeous and delicious birthday cake today for Barbara's actual birthday. The cake was the exquisite work of Cakes by Chantal. The master baker happens to the mother of one my students and an excellent pastry chef.

In the time of coronavirus, I'm especially grateful to celebrate another year-- indeed, another day--of life with my wife. We are healthy today, and we hope to be tomorrow. Many others, unfortunately have not been healthy. Today our total case count stands at 5,260,986 with 163,160 new cases added in the last three days.  That's about 10,000 fewer than I predicted. Deaths on the other hand, as I noted yesterday have exceeded my forecast, with a total of 167,122 deaths, 4,163 of which occurred in the past three days. This is about 1700 more casualties of the virus than I predicted. Based on these numbers I'd expect 5,429,337 total cases by Sunday, August 16 and 171,300 deaths.

Florida's new cases have dropped but not enough to get back into my graphs, at 20,176 new cases over the past three days. Ohio more or less held steady with only a slight uptick, and Nebraska has also marked a slight increase as well.

Total Cases:

Florida: 557,129 total cases, 2.5% of the population.

Ohio: 105,426 total cases, 0.9% of the population.

Nebraska: 29,660 total cases, 1.5% of the population

Deaths are up in Ohio and Nebraska, down some in Florida, though still high enough at 636 that I can't chart them. There's not much more to say than that.

Total Deaths

Florida: 8,912, a rate of 1.6%

Ohio: 3,755, a rate of  3.6%

Nebraska: 362, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Education in a Time of War

 

My new classroom space set up for thirteen students socially distanced (still a lot of extra furniture and whatnot lying about, but all the desks are in place). Whether the students will actually see the inside of this room this fall is still an open question.

Imagine that you live in Syria or Yemen. Or any war-torn country for that matter, any place that has refugees fleeing by the millions.  Schools are shuttered of course as people struggle simply to stay alive. Some hunker down, trying to ride out the shelling and sniper fire. Others flee, hoping for sanctuary some place else.

In this environment imagine someone making the impassioned call on social media that kids need to be in school. They need to have their lives back, be with their friends, do the things that kids do. Is this person wrong? No, they are absolutely right. The problem is simply this:  What the kids need is not possible.  It would be insane to send kids to school in the middle of a war zone simply because they need to "get back to normal."  No school experience in time of war is going to be normal, and that's assuming that  everyone stays alive.  And likewise I always find it a little strange when we talk about the threat of this virus, and then in the same breath declare"But you know, the kids just need to be in school."  My question is: What exactly do you expect to happen if they go back?

I don't know if people fully understand that in all but the most radical "Virus is NBD" schools our kids that go back to in person learning won't be going back to "normal." Between the social distancing, the mask wearing, the limits on the typical activities that might involve close contact from glee club to football, simply sending kids back to school is not sending them back to normal.

Do kids need to be in school? Sure. Do they need to have a normal life? Yes.  The question is, is that actually possible right now?

So as I am getting into preparing for a very strange new school year, my time has become more compressed and as a result this post features data (and the above thoughts) from Monday, August 10 even though I'm only now organizing that information and posting today, Wednesday, August 12.  That means there should be another Dispatch out tomorrow!  Hopefully my schedule will even out a little bit so that I'll be able to get that post out on time.  

As of Monday, August 10, there had 5,097,826 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  This included 165,733 new cases, meeting my prediction that we'd cross the five million mark and surpassing my projected number by about 3000 cases. It took us 18 days to from the time I first documented the fourth million to get to the fifth, about three days longer than I'd predicted. At this rate we should hit six million by August 30.  By Monday, we'd also experienced a total of 162,959 deaths connected to the virus in the U.S, 2,375 of which occurred in the previous three days. This is just about 2,000 fewer than I had predicted would perish in that time period. With this data in mind, I predict we'll have 5,271,152 total cases by tomorrow, Thursday, August 13 (As of right now we are only 75,000 cases away from that number).  As for total deaths, on Monday I would have predicted 165,403 total deaths by tomorrow, but we have already surpassed that prediction by 46 souls as of today.

As of Monday new cases were up in Ohio and Florida.  Florida's numbers, after briefly dwelling on my graph, have now once again catapulted beyond its borders with 26,572 new cases in the previous three days. Ohio's increase argues against a gradual decline and perhaps a new higher "normal" rate of new cases in the state. 

Total Cases (as of Monday, August 10):

Florida: 536,953 total cases, 2.5% of the population

Ohio: 101,731 total cases, 0.87% of the population

Nebraska: 28,696 total cases, 1.5% of the population.

Florida's three day death toll has once again rocketed off the charts, with 830 people succumbing to the virus in the three days prior to Monday.  It would seem that Florida's decline in deaths--if indeed it is happening--is happening slowly. Ohio, on the other hand has recorded it's second lowest death count since I began tracking the data. As for Nebraska,  the state continues to trundle along showing very little variation in it's death rate in the entire time I've been tracking its data.  Nebraska has recorded more than 15 deaths in a three day period only three times since the beginning of April and those instances were spread out, not clustered around a single peak. Likewise, since April 18, the state has had less than five new deaths only six times. Like it's endless sea of cornfields, Nebraska is notable for how unchanging the virus mortality landscape has been in that state.

Total Deaths

Florida: 8,276, a rate of 1.5%

Ohio: 3,673, a rate of 3.6%

Nebraska: 28,696, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: "Hey Guys. .."

This has been discussed ad nauseam in a thousand thinkpieces since the coronavirus pandemic arrived on our shores.  Most people realize that something has g one badly awry in our nation's handling of this virus. We seem to be one of the few countries in the world that has failed to get COVID-19 under control for even a short period of time. And over and over again we hear that it is because of a failure of leadership.

In every place from the classroom to the boardroom, from the home to the governor's mansion to the White House, it is the people in leadership who sets the tone. We can be as independent as we like and insist that we march to our own drum and our influenced by no one, but the bottom line is we are all influenced by leadership.

We've had the misfortune to have entered this pandemic under terrible leadership. I will not elaborate on that point here. Those that laud President Trump will never be convinced that he is anything other than excellent (even though these same people would laugh out of town any one else with his leadership qualities, and who, in many cases, conduct their own lives and businesses with far greater integrity than the man they admire so much ).  And those that critique the president already know and need no further convincing of his considerable deficits.

There is no such thing as a "neutral leader" who has no influence.  All leaders, even poor ones, make an impact, and when a person opts out of "leading" entirely, abdicates responsibility, passes the buck, casts blame and takes credit, prioritizes their own needs over those they are entrusted with leading, that impact can be incredibly destructive.

When a leader fails to "step up" and make the tough calls, the result is confusion and unrest.  While I have appreciated much of our governor's leadership in this crisis, there have been times when he's fallen into what I call "Hey Guys. .." mode.  This comes from the classic case of the teacher with poor classroom management (or the capable teacher who has gotten lazy--I admit I speak from experience on this).  Instead laying down clear procedures, rules, and accompanying consequences when the class is disruptive you'll hear the teacher say something like: "Hey guys, come on now. . .let's settle down. Come on guys, lets get back on track. Hey guys. . .guys." This approach says I'm going to merely encourage or suggest that you do what I ask. I hope you'll see it's in your own best interest but I'm not going to require you do follow my instructions. The irony is that this approach always creates a class that is more disruptive and more resentful of any guidance.  Students--and adults--sense when there are no teeth to guidelines and it makes them more rebellious, not less.  For quite some time, masks were encouraged in our state and a trip to Kroger showed probably half the people there wearing masks. Meanwhile the outcry against this "guidance" was deafening.  Then, at last, DeWine instituted a mask mandate and just like that virtually everyone at the grocery store was masked, and while there are definitely people still disgruntled by this violation of their freedom, I find the outcry has muted considerably. Not unlike when a class realizes that they are dealing with a teacher who is not playing.

I don't want to hear "Hey Guys. . ." from our leaders. And I definitely don't want to hear whining and blaming and excuses. I want to hear:  "Here's the plan. This is what we have to do. This is how we are getting there. Let's do it."

As of today, there have been a total of 4,932,093 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. This includes 159,606 new cases in the past three days, about 12,000 more than I predicted. There were also more deaths in the past three days than I had expected: 3,465 more people died for a total of 160,584 deaths. That's about 700 more than projected. Based on these numbers, I expect the U.S. will cross the five million mark by Monday, August 10 with 5,094,852 total cases. There will be a total of 164,117 deaths.

Like astronauts descending back into the atmosphere after many days in outer space at last Florida re-enters my new case graph with 13,059 new cases in the last three days. I haven't been able to graph Florida's case numbers since June 23. Ohio and Nebraska are up this three-day period but the gains are modest and so far represent at worst a flat rate of increase.

Total Cases
Florida: 510,381 total cases, 2.3% of the population.

Ohio: 98,675 total cases, 0.84% of the population. Ohio will likely join the 100 Club of states with 100,000 or more cases by Monday.

Nebraska: 27,894 total cases, 1.4% of the population

I was wrong about deaths in Florida. It could be that the spike in deaths there is at long last coming to an end. Instead of rebounding again, the new deaths in Florida dropped again to, 345. Ohio and Nebraska both logged increases in deaths this time around but nothing outside of the usual pattern.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 7,746, a rate of 1.5%

Ohio: 3,652, a rate of 3.7%

Nebraska: 348,  a rate of 1.2%