After today there's only four more Dispatches left in this blog series, and it's probably just as well. I think I've said just about everything there is to say about this pandemic. We've reached a point in this country where, due to our complete ineptitude, we have what I'd describe as a chronic COVID problem. I don't know that we'll ever get to the point where other nations have, where we get down to a handful of cases are able to safely but cautiously reopen for a bit until another spike comes along. If anything we will adjust to a steady stream of daily cases, managing to hobble along, half-open, half-closed as long as the hospitals can handle the caseloads. We'll hope for a vaccine or maybe that the virus will eventually become less deadly even as it becomes more contagious. This will be an Afghanistan of pandemics for the U.S., a protracted conflict that we tend to ignore unless it affects us personally.
In the past three days our total number of COVID cases has risen to 5,679,765 adding 142,057 new cases. This is around 7000 or so fewer cases than I'd predicted--essentially within the margin of error. I'd say my prediction was spot on. Likewise my prediction for deaths was short by only 15. We have a total of 176,229 COVID deaths, 3,271 of which occurred in the past three days. Accurate predictions simply mean that the rate of increase is remaining essentially the same, which means slightly more cases and deaths over time. This is consistent with the way the pandemic seems to be playing out in the United States. I predict 5,827,438 total cases by Tuesday, August 25 and 179,577 total deaths.
Florida's case numbers have bounced back up a little bit over the past three days. This series won't likely last long enough for us to see how this plays out, but I suspect that Florida and Ohio will settle into a new normal of consistent numbers of new cases that are significantly higher than in the spring, increasing and decreasing from day to day but overall remaining steady. Nebraska will remain steady as well. This is what half-measures get us.
Total Cases:
Florida: 597,589 total cases, 2.7% of the population
Ohio: 114,165 total cases, 0.98% of the population. Will the state hit 1% of the population infected before the Dispatch closes down?
Nebraska: 31,780 total cases, 1.6% of the population.
Florida's deaths have dropped for the fourth straight three-day period in a row. Good news right? Well, context is important here. Deaths climbed so high this summer in Florida that a drop to 342 deaths doesn't even come close to the much lower death rates in the spring. Even the spring peak was still one hundred deaths fewer than what we see right now. Ohio, on the other hand continues a steady stream of deaths but one that is far lower than in the spring.
Total Deaths:
Florida: 10,273, a rate of 1.7%
Ohio: 3,975, a rate of 3.5%
Nebraska: 382, a rate of 1.2%
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