Aug 16, 2020

Dispatch from Coronaville: Corona At the Door

 I'm currently in quarantine.

 

Thankfully, it appears that I'm negative for the virus. I just got my test results back today. But it's recommended that you complete your 14 days of quarantine even if you get a negative test result. Thankfully, it's relatively easy for me to do that so that's what I'll do.

It's been an interesting experience, the past few days.  Corona at last arrived at my door, but thankfully the locks held. I was exposed on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. I got the first hint that I might have been exposed Wednesday night and that was confirmed on Thursday when the person I'd been around tested positive.  Here's what I've learned from having the virus at my doorstep.

In Ohio, to get faster results on a test, you need to get a doctor's order.  But doctors generally won't issue you an order to get tested unless you are showing symptoms. I was told by my doctor's office that they just don't have enough tests. I ended up going to an Urgent Care place on Thursday that takes walk ins.  The wait time for results is 72 hours.

I dreaded the test almost more than the virus itself (yes, I know that is irrational). I'd seen the pictures of the people grimacing with that extra long Q-tip up their nose. My nose is very sensitive and I just knew it was going to be agony.  It turned out not to be too bad. I mean it was not pleasant--a kind of burning, stinging sensation, but it was very quick, just a few seconds and it was over. 

I didn't feel very worried, but I was a bit more aware of sensations in my body.  Is that a tightness in my chest? My skin feels a bit hot? Do I have a fever? But I figured that was just my over-active imagination and my daily temperature tests and lack of cough indicated I was just fine. 

I learned the difference between quarantine and isolation. Quarantine is what you do to ensure that you are not sick. Isolation is what you do when you are sick and want to avoid infecting others.  During the few days I was waiting for the test results to come back I inhabited a sort of middle ground between the two. I slept in the guest room and used one bathroom, avoided hugging my family (that was hard; and I'm not a hugger), and let Babs handle the cooking (though I still did the dishes). Other than that I more or less lived my normal life. 

That's  my story and I'm hoping there will be nothing more to add!

The news is pretty good on the national scale as well today. Cases and deaths are down over the past three days, those deaths not significantly so. The only possible caveat is that testing has dropped dramatically across the country as well. That's not ideal, as we can't really say if the spread is slowing or if we are simply detecting fewer cases.  Hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks should tell the story. You can stop testing, but you can't stop the virus from putting people in the hospital and killing them.  If we don't see a significant decline in deaths in the days ahead we'll know that the decline in new cases may not be the good news we thought. But today, at least, we can be cautiously optimistic. 5,389,740 total cases, an increase of only 129,000 cases in the past three days.  This is the lowest number of new cases since late June and about 40,000 fewer than I predicted.  Deaths are lower than three days ago but higher than six days ago, so no significant change there: 169,665 total deaths, 2,5423 of which were new. That's about 1700 fewer than I predicted.  Based on these numbers I'd be expecting 5,519,094 total cases by Wednesday, August 19. There should also be 172,210 total deaths.


Numbers have dropped quite a bit across all three benchmark states. Florida is still not back on the chart with 16,279 cases but it's still the second lowest number of new cases for the Sunshine State since June. Ohio is registering it's lowest number of new cases since early July, and Nebraska it's lowest numbers since July 20. So it's looking good.

Total Cases
Florida: 573,408 total cases, 2.6% of the population.

Ohio: 107,674 total cases, 0.92% of the population.

Nebraska: 30,241 total cases, 1.6% of the population


Deaths are down as well.  Florida just barely edges on to the chart over this three day periods, while Ohio notches a modest decline. Nebraska has had just one person lose their life to the virus in the past three days.

Total Deaths

Florida: 9,451, a rate of 1.6%

Ohio: 3,824, a rate of 3.6%

Nebraska: 363, a rate of 1.2%


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