Dispatch from Coronaville: Cruel Summer

Well the cruelest of summers is drawing to a close.  Cruelty varied ranging from the blessing of merely being stuck at home-vacations cancelled, to struggling with job loss and looming homelessness as unemployment and eviction moratoriums expired.  And then there were the millions across the country sickened, and thousands holding on for dear life in ICU's and those who could not hold on any longer. 

At the same time, for many who chose to take their chances and found the gamble paid off, the summer was not cruel at all. For these lucky folks vacations and family gatherings continued apace (at least within the United States; it's not so easy to travel internationally these days) marked by cheap flights, light crowds at tourist attractions, and lots of room on the freeway.

We've still got another month or two of hot weather, but with the schools opening (or not), for students and teachers fall (and perhaps the fall) is about to arrive.  What will it hold? It's time to look back at the past month to see how my predictions held up and look forward to the month ahead, making new prognostications for these uncertain times. Interestingly by the time I revisit my month to month predictions on the fifth of September, the Dispatch from Coronaville will have issued it's last entry two days earlier. The month in review will come under a new title, one that will be visited at minimum on the fifth (or thereabouts) of each month.

I'm a day early, but the reality has already exceeded my predictions so I'm going ahead anyway since today is my D-Day (Dispatch Day). I forecast 4.4 million total cases of COVID-19 by tomorrow August 5.  But as of today we've already surpassed that number by more than 300 thousand cases with a total of 4,772,487, a 64% increase. Likewise I predicted 154,568 deaths by tomorrow. In fact we passed that number three days ago and today the total number of U.S. deaths attributed to the virus stands at 157,119, a 21% increase.  I believe the schools will tell the story of the next month. By September 5, my school will be three days away from beginning instruction and Barbara's school will have been in session for two weeks already. I expect by then we'll have a good idea of what safe instruction should look like in this country with many other schools across the nation having been open for close to a month by that time. While it does appear that we might be coming to the end of this latest surge, I'm going to predict at minimum a continuation of a  high number of new cases, due in large part to bungled school openings. Therefore I predict 7,826,879 total cases in the U.S. by September 5, 2020.  I also project 190,114 total deaths by this date.

As for the past three days, the news is quite good. We've only added 145,445 new cases in the past three days.  That's the lowest number we've had since at least mid-July. Likewise with 2,254 new deaths, we have the lowest number since July 20.  Hopefully that pattern persists. Again school will tell the story, I believe. I predict that we'll have 4,920,434 total cases by Friday, August 7 and 159,865 total deaths.

More good news on the three-day report. New cases in Florida have dropped to their lowest point since June 23, with a mere 17,302 new cases in the past three days. Likewise Ohio reports it lowest three-day total of new cases since July 11 and Nebraska it's lowest since July 20. I would really like to see this trend continue.

Total Cases:

Florida: 497,322 total cases, 2.2% of the population. Florida more than doubled it's total cases in the past month--a 149% increase, but even so the rate of increase did slow enough that I missed my projection by more than 150,000 cases. Based on this rate (which may not slow by much if schools prove to be epicenters), I would predict over a million total cases in Florida by September 5--1,238,332 total cases to be exact.

Ohio: 95,106 total cases, 0.81% of the population. Ohio exceeded my prediction by 9,000 cases this month, reflecting a about a 40% increase. I predict a total of 133,148 total cases by September 5, over 1% of the population..

Nebraska: 27,027 total cases, 1.4% of the population. Nebraska also ended up with more cases than I predicted--about a thousand more, an increase of 36%.  I expect 36,757 total cases by September 5.

I'm glad to report that deaths are down across the board as well. Florida appears to be still in the midst of a death surge. The drop back into the charts with 380 deaths is not low enough to register the beginning of a decline. I predict Florida is back off the charts by Friday.  Ohio on the other hand defied my predictions and did not surge back up past 115 deaths in the past three days, instead dropping still further to 55 deaths this time around. This gives me hope that the surge of deaths here will be lower than I had feared. Nebraska meanwhile returns to territory it hasn't seen since the end of March. Just one person died from coronavirus in the state over the the past three days.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 7,401, a rate of 1.5%. Florida logged over 2000 more deaths than I predicted last month, an increase of 98%. Based on that grim percentage, I'd expect 14,653 total deaths in the state by September 5.

Ohio: 3,570, a rate of 3.8%. Ohio actually had fewer deaths than I predicted, but only by about 30. Statistically, I'd say I was correct with an increase of 23%. I predict 4,391 total deaths by September 5.

Nebraska: 339, a rate of 1.3%.  I missed the mark with Nebraska by about 100 deaths, which for this state is quite significant. There was only a 19% increase in deaths in Nebraska over the past month.  With that in mind, I project 403 deaths in the state by September 5, a number that will still be lower than what I'd predicted for this month. Folks in Nebraska seem to be stayin' alive and I'm glad of that.