Dispatch from Coronaville: So Cruel

Three days later things don't look so hot.  I'm really wanting to see a generally consistent pattern of declining cases and deaths. A few spikes here and there, sure. But this?  It's not encouraging.  New deaths skyrocketed in both Florida and Ohio, and both saw jumps in the number of new cases.

First a look at the nation as a whole. As I predicted on Monday we surpassed the million mark for those infected, with a total of 1,068,557 cases. At a 9% rate of increase, not quite as high predicted but also not too far off either, only about 6000 shy of my projection. As for deaths, I was wrong again but for the first time in weeks--in the wrong direction. I thought we'd be at 55,000 deaths representing a 10% increase. Instead we've lost a total of 62,708 folks to this disease, a 25% increase and some 7,000 more than I expected.  I suppose this could be "catch-up" of people who've been languishing in the hospital for a few weeks finally giving up the ghost.  But that's hardly cause for celebration.

Overall the picture just doesn't look to me like this thing is quite wrapped up.  And yet that's the way we are acting. And I do get it in a way. My heart tells me it's time to be done with this quarantine. I'm tired of staying at home. My students are struggling with depression. It just feels like this should be over.  But a hamburger also feels like just what my body needs. And that isn't necessarily so.  The reality on the ground just does not sync with what our feelings tell us should be happening. But as a nation that's the way we are headed.

We are desperate for this thing to just go away.  People I respect a great deal are shopping around old theories that it's all a hoax. Any YouTube video put out by anybody with an MD after the name is trumpeted as "proof."  We are desperate and in our desperation I fear we are ignoring reality.  My first prediction is coming true.  We are opening up, ready or not.  I'm really looking forward to the end of all this whining from protest crowd.  Stop crying, geez. You'll get your way. Just chill. But I don't think it will look like you think it will. To riff on a popular quote these days: "Those who would give the health of the country for the sake of a strong economy will end up with neither  health nor a strong economy."  That's the second part of my prediction and by May's end we will see whether it holds up as well.

Here's my predictions for the next three days. By Sunday, May 3 I predict 1,164,727 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States and 78,385 deaths (hopefully I will be way over in my prediction, but my practice is always to use the rate of increase for the previous 3 days and in this case it was 25%)

Here's those glum graphs:

Both Florida and Ohio have bounced back up in the number of new cases. Nebraska has dipped slightly.
Florida: 33,683 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Ohio:18,027 total cases, 0.15% of the population
Nebraska: 3,876 total cases, 0.2% of the population. Nebraska seems to be having a "corona moment." Despite the numerically lower figures, Nebraska has a lot fewer people than Florida and Ohio, and that percentage of the population known to be infected is telling. For contrast note that the percentage of the U.S. population known to have been infected is in the neighborhood of 0.3%.

The deaths are truly discouraging. When I started these graphs I was confident that we were on the downhill side of this more or less and I did not expect we see more than 180 deaths over a three-day period from any of the states I'm monitoring. Unfortunately I was wrong.  Both Florida and Ohio went off the charts since Monday. Florida had 193 new deaths and Ohio was even worse with 247 deaths! Nebraska spiked up too with 12 deaths.  I'm really hoping we'll see these numbers fall back into my chart by Sunday. If they don't I will reluctantly add another sheet to my graph.
Florida: 1,266 total deaths, a rate of 3.8%
Ohio: 975 total deaths, a rate of 5.4%
Nebraska: 68 total deaths, a rate of 1.8%

"Desperation is a tender trap, it gets you every time."
                                                          --U2 "So Cruel"

Dispatch from Coronaville: Headed Downhill (In a Good Way)

At last the graphs are looking like I hoped they would.  A consistent downhill slide in new cases and new deaths. I'm feeling hopeful.

Still, people are suffering. Since this crisis arrived on American shores, I've gone from knowing no one who had COVID-19, to hearing about friends of friends getting it, to knowing acquaintances who have it, to now people that I know and love very well getting the infection. Until these graphs hit the x-axis, its not over yet.

The Numbers: The rate of increase in cases and deaths of COVID-19 continues to slow. As of today there have been 977,256 cases of the disease in the United States and 50,134 deaths. This about 13,000 fewer cases than I predicted, and 2000 fewer deaths. Taking the same rate of increase from the past three days and projecting to Thursday, May 30, a 10% increase in new cases would bring us to over one millions cases--a total of 1,074,982. Additionally a 10% increase in total deaths (an rate that has slowed by four percentage points since Friday) would bring us to 55,147.


The Graphs:

I have to say these graphs look great today! Both Florida and Ohio continue a precipitous drop in the number of new cases of COVID-19. In fact for the first time, Nebraska had more new cases than Ohio did (okay fine, it was only four more but still).  I'd like to think of it as Ohio joining the ranks the low viral-growth states rather than Nebraska moving up. We'll see what the next week or so brings.
Florida: 31,520 total cases, 0.14% of the population.
Ohio: 15,963 total cases, 0.14% of the population
Nebraska: 3,126 total cases, 0.16% of the population. For the first time Nebraska has the highest percentage of it's population infected of the three states in question.

More good news.  New deaths have also plummeted in all three states.  Florida has the lowest number of new deaths it's had in almost a month. Ohio has the lowest number since April 12.  And Nebraska could be returning to the virtually constant rate of 3-6 new deaths daily it had before the rate spiked last week.
Florida: 1,073 total deaths, a rate of 3.4%
Ohio: 728 total deaths, a rate of 4.6%
Nebraska: 56 total deaths, a rate of 1.8%
The one piece of consistently bad news is that the death rate for those who test positive is so high. I've heard the argument that if there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers, the death rate is actually much lower, but those percentages still represent a lot of people.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Who do you BeLIEve?

These guys thought the media environment was bad then? They had no idea what was coming. Image from the U2 Zoo TV Tour performance in Sydney Australia, 1992

In these troubled times who do you believe?  How do you know who you can trust? Of course I'm not talking about those near and dear.  I'm talking about the information peddlers, the talking heads, the power players, authorities and deciders and experts. How do you know if you're getting good information or an injection of disinfectant?

One unfortunate side effect of the the chaotic media environment we now live in is that many of us have come to the conclusion that it's impossible to know.  After all isn't it all spin? Everyone pushing their agenda, bending, twisting and even breaking the truth to fit their own preconceived notions? "Don't believe what you hear, don't believe what you see, if you just close your eyes you can feel the enemy." Those lyrics from the early 90's U2 song "Acrobat" seem to fit the zeitgeist. And so we close our eyes, feel the enemy, and  take refuge in whatever feels true, whatever confirms what we already believe.

I don't think it has to be this way. I propose it's still possible to sort out, if not absolute truth, than at least a sense of the right direction.  We can use logic, some critical thinking, and a bit of common sense to sort through the chatter. Don't get me wrong, I don't claim to have arrived at some higher plane of understanding. I've been wrong many times over since COVID-19 invaded our shores (indeed I haven't hit the mark once since I began this blog!). But I do feel like I have a toolbox of sorts for deciding what to believe.

One of the tools I apply is to consider how motivated the source is--and what the motivation is. I consider what the source has to gain if what they are saying is true.  People who have a lot to gain from a certain outcome are more likely to ignore contradictory evidence and selectively focus on data that reinforces what they want to happen. If on the other hand, the source is presenting information that doesn't bring them any meaningful benefit and in fact might be damaging to them, I'm more likely to believe them.

"It don't really matter to me baby, you believe what you want to believe, you see"
                                                                                                    --Tom Petty, "Refugee"

But we don't have to just believe what we want to believe.  Taking a moment to step back, consider the source and what they might have to gain, might just be the key not living like well...a refugee.

Here are the numbers: As we enter the weekend, there are a total of 891,957 cases of COVID-19, representing an increase of 11% over the past three days. We are about 9,000 cases shy of what I'd predicted. Deaths increased at a slower rate as well, down four percentage points, to 14%, a total of 45,757 lives lost. I was off by a little less than 2000.  Adjusting projections down again I would expect 990,072 total cases by Monday, April 27 and 52,163 deaths.

As for our benchmark states, here's the updated graphs:

Both Florida and Ohio showed a significant decrease in the number of new cases since April 21, with Ohio's new cases plummeting after rising continuously since April 15.  Nebraska's new cases continue to increase.
Florida: Total cases 30,166, 0.14% of the population.
Ohio: Total cases 15,169, 0.13% of the population.
Nebraska: Total cases 2,324, 0.12% of the population. Nebraska has been climbing up the list of the states. Once in the bottom ten, then hovering for awhile at 13th or 14th from the bottom, it's now 17th from the bottom.

Unfortunately both Florida and Ohio showed increases in the number of new deaths over the past three days. Nebraska ticked down by 1, from 14 to 13 new deaths during this time period. Not so long ago that was the number of total deaths in the state. Now these are just the new ones.
Florida: Total deaths: 1,011, a rate of 3.4%
Ohio: Total deaths: 690, a rate of 4.5%
Nebraska: Total deaths: 51, a rate of 2.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Riding the Corona-Coaster

I decided to graph a different look at the COVID-19 situation in my three benchmark states: Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska. For my graphs I wanted to look not at the total cases and deaths but just the new cases and new deaths.  What I found, I think, is insightful. I guess I was expecting a nice, smooth curve, perhaps still increasing or maybe on the downward slope. But instead we have something that looks a lot like a roller-coaster ride.  It's one scary ride and it doesn't look to me like we are near the end yet.  Here are the graphs, and below each one, my takeaways.

New cases are tricky. As I've said before an increase in cases due to more widespread testing would be a good thing, espec. As I've said before an increase in cases due to more widespread testing would be a good thing, especially if the number of deaths were consistently decreasing.  I'm not at all sure that's what we are seeing. Based on what my graph shows, in terms of new cases, Florida appears to have already peaked, whereas Ohio and Nebraska have not (or if they have that peak was today). Look at Ohio, despite all the good press about our governor, our new cases have skyrocketed shooting up from 1200 new cases on April 15 to 3600 today! That number matches Florida's previous peak and for the first time since I started keeping track on March 31, Ohio's new cases outpaced Florida's--and not be a little. Meanwhile Nebraska still seems to be on the uphill side of this as well.

Looking at new deaths, the news for Ohio is a little better. It's possible that we may have peaked on April 15 and are hopefully on the downhill side of this.  It appears that Florida peaked three days ago and is perhaps on the downhill side also.  Nebraska on the other hand saw it's greatest three day jump in deaths to date. The next six days should tell us a lot. Either we've still got some terrifying ups and downs a head or we are beginning the gradual approach to the end of this ride.  I know I would not feel comfortable opening up just yet.

For the nation as a whole. Total cases increased 12% to 804,175, about 7,000 shy of what I predicted. We notched down another 1% increase. Deaths increased 18%, down two percentage of increase points for a total of 40,185. I was off by just north of 600.  I will base my next predictions off these rates of increase. By Friday, April 24, there should be 900,676 cases in the United States, and 47,418 deaths.

The States: I'm making some minor modifications to my written data since the graphs tell us so much. I will posting my updated graphs with each post from here on out:
Florida: 27,861 total cases, 0.13% of the population. 866 total deaths, a rate of 3%.
Ohio: 13,725 total cases, 0.11% of the population.  557 total deaths, a rate of 4%. Part of the big jump in cases may have to do with the high rate of infection among our prison population.
Nebraska: 1,648 new cases, 0.1% of the population. 38 total deaths, a rate of 2.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Wishful Thinking

Last night just before bed I had a real down moment.  They come on me from time to time, these moments of desperation and. . .well, wishing.  I just want everything to go back to the way it was. I miss church and movies and school and shopping and being around people. I dread the long, slow slog back to some semblance of normal.  Even if my students can have their graduation later this summer will they be allowed to hug each other?  I don't want a new normal. I don't want to flatten the curve. I just want to to go back to the way it was in the Time Before.

I know it's just wishful thinking. I think a lot of us are afflicted by this wishful thinking and understandably so. I totally get those protesters out there in state capitals (including our own) across the nation demanding that the U.S. open up right now. It seems like frustration boiling over and I can relate. I think we all feel like saying: "Enough!"

But as understandable as it is, I don't know that just "opening up everything" is the answer. I'm not sure it's even possible to just "go back" on the turn of a dime and I sense that's what the protesters (and I) really are wishing for.  What I don't get though, is the sense that the protesters are motivated by a deep understanding of the coronavirus and how to minimize it's impact.

Because here's the thing:  We know what needs to be done to open up America safely.  We see it being done elsewhere in the world. We need mass testing. To me, that a country like ours with resources we're supposed to have cannot provide a test to any one of it's citizens that wants or needs one should be cause for grave concern.  This needs to be fixed. And to me that's what an informed protester should be demanding: "We want tests, we want tests!"

The irony is I honestly believe that the protesters will get their wish.  I predict the United States as a whole will start opening back up by the end of month, whether we are really ready or not. Some states may try to hold out, but the political pressure and the demands of the people will be intense.  What happens after that? Hopefully all our wishes will come true, the number of cases and deaths will not increase, our hospitals will be able to handle what new cases crop up and we'll look back and say, "Well I guess the experts were wrong. " But then again, if our wish is to open up without seriously considering the consequences, well, you know the saying:

Be careful what you wish for.

The Numbers: The rate of increase continues to decline. I predicted 721, 924 cases, and instead we saw a 13% increase to 717,825. This represents a only a slight slowing in the rate of increase over the previous four days and thus my prediction is only off by about 4,000. The deaths increase 20%, again more slowly than I forecast, to a total of 34,022, about 1200 fewer than I expected. I think what I would like to see is a massive increase in the number positive cases, indicating more widespread testing, while the death rate continues to slow. If we "reopen" without the proper testing capabilities in place, which is what I predict will happen, I predict that we will see big jump in cases (though not as many as we would with wider testing) and a corresponding jump in deaths due to the failure to properly contain the virus--as well as continued damage to the economy instead of the miraculous restoration we wish for.  As my friend and frequent covid-opinion sparing partner Rey likes to say: Time will tell. In the meantime here's my projections for the next four days:  By Tuesday, April 21 we will see 811,142 total cases and 40,826 deaths.

The States:
Florida: The rate of increase sped up to 14%, reaching 25,261, 0.11% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 25% to 739, a rate of 2.9%, slowing slightly since Wednesday.
Ohio: Cases increased at a quicker rate also, 31% to 10,222, 0.09% of the population. The total number of deaths increased 24% to 451, a rate of 4.4%. Glad to see our rate of death decrease over the past four days. I'd like to see that continue even as our case numbers continue to spiral up.
Nebraska: The rate of increase in cases spiked up considerably over the past four days to 31%,  a total of 1,216, 0.07% of the population. Deaths increased 14% to 24, a rate of 1.9%.  If this trend continues Nebraska is what we want to see for the rest of the nation, an increase in positive cases due to increased testing and a continually declining death rate.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Keep them Open

 I heard a stat the other day that 1 in 10 Ohio restaurants will end up closing permanently due to the Coronavirus lockdown. I don't want these three to be among them. If you are one of those people who feels safe with ordering takeout or delivery, please put these places on your list.

Mr. Hero on Livingston Avenue: This is a local franchise so there is more than one and though I'm sure your business will be valued at any of them, the one on Livingston is special to me. It's owned by the parents of one my 8th grade students. I'd been meaning to visit their fast food joint for years but never got around to it. I decided now, in these perilous times, that I couldn't put it off anymore. I went through their drive-thru and my student's mother (I think) took my order, and her dad gave me my food at the window.  The Patels are good people. Their older daughter has been in our school since kindergarten and their younger daughter is Ezra first grade classmate. I really want to see them survive and thrive in this difficult time. So if you live out east (or don't mind the drive) pay them a visit!

Mezze: Mezze has been my favorite Mediterranean place for many years. When we lived in New Albany it was just a five minute drive away, but even now I'll drive back there for their delicious Mezze bowls with the majudara/house rice mix, gyro meat, with all the toppings (feta, banana peppers, kalamata olives, cucumbers, pickles, tomatoes, lettuce) topped with tzatziki sauce. Yum. I have no personal connection to the owners. My plea is selfish. I just want to still be able to get my Mezze bowl when this is all over.

Jeni's Splendid Ice Cream. I know these days every city has luxe ice cream shop with inventive flavors, but in my personal opinion Jeni Britton Bauer did first and best. I have yet to order from Jeni's since the lockdown but she's next on my list. Jeni's Brambleberry Crisp ice cream is my favorite thing to eat in the whole world, and Elijah will choose Jeni's Salted Caramel over anything else. And the good news is if you are Nashville, Los Angeles, DC, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte  or a half dozen other cities, there's a Jeni's near you! Putting in the links for this blog I started drooling over the new flavors she's got out: Sweet Cream Biscuits and Peach Jam, Blueberry and Lemon Parfait, Raspberry Rose Jelly Donut, Pineapple Upsidedown Cake .I want to try them all.

We can debate all we want about how to reopen the country. But in the meantime, let's just be sure keep these local businesses open.

The Numbers: The increase in the number of cases continues to slow. The number of cases increased 14% to 633,267, a good 200,000 less than I predicted. Likewise the number of deaths increased 28% to a total of 28,278. Looking back at Sunday's blog I see I made a mistake in my prediction. I recorded the number of additional deaths as my prediction rather than the total which should have been 29,084. I was off by about 800. Even as the rate of increase of cases slackens the death rate remains higher. Based on a constant increase (which of course has never been the case) I would expect 721,924 cases by Saturday night, and 35,258 total deaths.

The States:
Florida: The number of cases rose 11% to 22,081, 0.1% of the population. The number of deaths rose 28% to 591, a rate of 2.7%. Florida's rate of increase of death actually increased over the past four days. That is a first, I believe. Florida also crept back  up to 8th in the nation for number of cases and moved from 11th to 9th in the nation for number of deaths. It hasn't been a great four days for Florida.
Ohio: The number of cases rose 18% to 7,791,  0.07% of the population. The number of deaths rose 43% to 361, a rate of 4.6%. Same story as Florida except worse. The percent of increase of deaths has risen dramatically over the past four days. Ohio still remains 17th in the nation for number of cases.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 13.5% to 931, 0.05% of the population. The number of deaths rose 16.7% to 21, a rate of 2.3% Nebraska is looking pretty good. Of the three it's the only one whose rate of increase of deaths slowed over the past four days. I also need to make a correction. Nebraska is 44th in the nation when you include the five U.S. territories and the District of Columbia (which the New York Times--the source of my data--does), 41st out the 50 states. They did move down one since Sunday so this also is an improvement.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Monday Morning Quarterback

Could this have been avoided? That's the question I've had on my mind for the past few days.  My friend J and I were talking the other day and he raised some good points. Points that led me to the short answer: No.  It's an American thing. You wouldn't understand.

I know there are people who gripe about President Trump's leadership (or lack thereof).  I'm one of those people. But when I think about it I don't know that things would have been much different under a President Clinton (or even a President DeWine--although I have a lot of respect for him). Had a different president taken the COVID-19 threat more seriously sooner, and taken steps to address it, I suspect there would have been a furious outcry from the public. The American people would have been enraged at any kind of government mandates, restrictions, requirements or expenditures on a crisis that seemed far away and nothing to do with us. Can you imagine a president that wasn't the darling of the right-wing media ecosystem doing any of the things this administration is doing? And doing them earlier, before the virus had even got a foothold? The opposition would be fierce and unrelenting.  Even a "normal" Republican president would have faced pushback, and indeed a president of either party would have had had a hard time disregarding the furor of the electorate to do what needed to be done.  In all fairness, our governor and others like him do not have to deal with the nation as a whole when making their decisions.

Could we have achieved widespread testing like South Korea and Germany did, and thus limit the need for the extensive lockdown of the country and the accompanying economic cataclysm? Even if we had the logistics to scale up nationwide testing, I don't think we would have been able to pull that off.  Again, the American cultural climate is the culprit here. The intrusiveness of the contact tracing that South Korea required, the monitoring and tracking--all of it would have been met with outrage.  We fuss now because people can't get tested unless they meet certain criteria, but imagine the government mandating that everyone be tested, symptoms or not.  The people would have rebelled.  And let's not forget that South Korea had already taken a black eye for MERS outbreak there some years ago and in a sense had a heard start, in that they had started putting in place the means to prevent another pandemic from taking such a toll on their country. Will we make meaningful changes to ensure that our country can keep on humming when (not if) the next outbreak comes along? I have my doubts.

My point is not to say that our American independence, our disdain for government schoolmarms, our fierce insistence on our individual rights is a bad thing. It's just a thing. In many cases it works out great for us. In other cases, not so much. This is one of those "not so much" cases.  We're just one of those countries that are going to pay a high price, literally in trillions of dollars, as well as in thousands of lives, to do things our way. And in this case, our way is the hard way.

So let's see where the numbers are: I predicted 588,510 cases of the virus by this evening. I was off by 33,000 or so cases. The actual number is 555,164.  I had predicted 26.033 deaths. Thankfully I was wrong again: 22,033 is the actual number. I did happen to get the 33 right but beyond that I was off by 4,000. Based on an increase of 20% over four days we should see a total of 832,746 cases by Wednesday night and a 32% increase in deaths will bring us to 7,051.

Our three states:
Florida: The number of cases rose 18% to 19,887, 0.09% of the population. The number of deaths rose 24% to 460, a rate of 2%. Florida has dropped to ninth in the nation in terms of number of cases and it is eleventh in the nation for number of deaths, meaning there are states with fewer cases but more deaths than Florida (Connecticut and Washington have that unfortunate distinction).
Ohio: The number of cases rose 20% to 6,604, 0.06% of the population. The number of deaths rose 19% to 253, a rate of 3.8%. Ohio's percent of increase in deaths slowed significantly over the past four days, but still I think I'd rather be in Florida than here if I contracted the virus. Ohio holds steady at 17th in the nation.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 38% to 820, 0.04% of the population. The number of deaths rose 20% to 18, a rate of 2.2%. Nebraska moved up a notch to 36th in the nation, and though it's percent increase of death has slowed over the past four days it's rate of infection is the only one of the three with an infection rate that increased over the past four days.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Paradise Lost?

There is definitely a sliding scale of loss in this pandemic. There are the truly horrific losses.  The loss of life to the virus. Parents and grandparents. Sons and daughters. Spouses and Siblings. Friends and Lovers, all taken too soon by this terrible scourge.  There is devastating loss of livelihoods, millions put out of work, wondering how they'll keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.  There is the frightening loss of health--once vibrant people now tethered to machines to help them breathe, fighting the virus to return to health.

And then there are the lesser losses. I don't believe that all losses are equivalent, but I do think that they are all valid. There is the loss of freedom to move about, the loss of the freedom of assembly.  There is the loss of milestones, weddings postponed, funerals missed, graduations on hold. Someone said that this feeling we all have-this malaise that we battle against if we are fortunate to enough not to have to fight those larger battles that eclipse everything else--is grief. We are grieving the loss of life as we knew it.  We are mourning what I now call, with a wry smile, The Time Before.

I took this photo of my classroom white board today when I had to stop by the school to pass on a laptop computer to a child who needed it. It's left the way it was on March 12th, our last day in the classroom. Note the hopeful date of return that my students' put on the board then: March 16 or March 31. But it was not to be.

I'm grieving on behalf of my eighth graders (and myself, honestly) who had their final year at Columbus Adventist Academy unceremoniously snatched away from them. And they were having such a great time too. Most of my 8th graders can't wait to get away from CAA and move on to the exciting world of high school. This class was in no hurry for the year to end. They were savoring and treasuring every moment of their school year.  More than most classes, these kids deserved to have their whole year. There's a litany of 8th grade end-of-the-year traditions that my class will likely miss out on: the Day of Responsibility where they get to trade their school uniforms for professional dress and set their own schedule, the traditional photo shoot on the last Monday of the school year, the early end to the academic year and the days of graduation practice leading up to the graduation day itself. My heart hurts so much for them because they would have enjoyed all of those traditions so much. It saddens me that I can't give that to them.  And then there's the class trip. . .

Another photo of my room, taken today. You can see the special desks with the comfy office chairs for the class president and class treasurer at the back of the room near the cabinet where they kept their snacks for fundraisers.

What about Hawaii? The CAA 8th grade class blasted through all previous class fundraising records, both on a whole-class and individual level. We've had such a beautiful outpouring of support by our community. By the time their year came to a sudden end they had banked thousands of dollars and were well on their way to achieving what seemed impossible at the start of the year--an 8th grade class trip for all 23 of them and eight chaperones to the paradise of Hawaii. And now? We have a tentative plan for a rescheduled trip from July 21 to 26 (right after a rescheduled graduation ceremony on Sunday, July 19).  That's the latest possible time we can take the trip before many of them begin their freshman year of high school. But right now, that 's all it is. An idea. We have no clue whether we'll actually be able to take the trip then.  Even if the travel restrictions and  advisories are lifted, the virus has been contained, and it is safe to go I fear we won't have the whole class. I worry that there will be parents who remain anxious despite reassurances from public officials, who conclude that it's just too late and feels too risky.  And even if we have the support of all the families, how many will we lose because there just isn't enough time to raise the remaining funds? Sure we raised thousands, but we needed to keep doing that. Our fundraising came to an abrupt halt right along with their school year. And how difficult will it be to fund raise while millions are unemployed and the economy is in shambles? What seemed like a long shot at the beginning of the year feels even longer now. I haven't given up. I can't. Not yet.  But there's a part of me that's in mourning already.

I don't have a bright side to all that has been lost from the unfathomable to the irreplaceable, big and small. Sometimes it's okay to just sit and grieve whatever paradise we might have lost. For now, I'm allowing the loss to be what it is.

Here's the numbers: I predicted 486,168 cases in the United States by today. The actual number is 463,394, an increase of 27%. I predicted 16,825 deaths and I only missed the mark by 137, with the actual death toll at 16,688, an increase of 56%. Assuming the rate stays the same (which it shouldn't), I would predict the total number of cases to rise to 588,510 by Easter Sunday and our deaths will reach 26,033.  These losses are staggering and it's important not to let the numbers numb us to the reality everyone represents a hole in an American family.

At the state level:
Florida: The number of cases rose 23% to 16,819, 0.08% of the population. The number of deaths rose 46% to 370, a rate of 2%. Florida remains in the top ten hardest hit states that it is currently at it's best standing since I began keeping track, at 8th place.
Ohio: The number of cases rose 24% to 5,512, 0.05% of the population. The number of deaths rose 50% to 213, a rate of 3.9%. Ohio is currently 17th in the nation for number cases.
Nebraska: The number of cases rose 36% to 594, 0.03% of the total population of the state. The number of deaths rose 67% to 15, a rate of 2.5%. Nebraska has inched its way up out of the bottom ten is now 37th in the nation.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Just the Numbers

Too tired tonight to do much else besides review the numbers from the past four days.

The rate of new COVID-19 cases continues to slow. We saw an increase of 33% to a total of 365,525 cases as of this evening. This is 53,000 fewer cases than I predicted. Likewise the increase in deaths has slowed as well. We saw an increase of 54% to 10,925, a good 2000 less than I predicted (though still more than another month's worth of car accident deaths). My new prediction is that by Thursday, April 9 we will have 486,148 cases and 16,825 deaths.

And now to my benchmark states:
Florida: Cases match the national percent increase of 33% to 13,621, 0.06% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 253, a rate of 2%.
Ohio: Cases increase 34% to 4,450, 0.04% of the population. Deaths increase 56% to 142, a rate of 3.1%
Nebraska: Cases increase 48% to 438, still around 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 9, rate of 2%.

Dispatch from Coronaville: The Right Way to Be Wrong

I've been wrong more than I've been right in my predictions regarding the spread and death rate of coronavirus.  Thank goodness. Being right isn't everything and in cases like this you want to be wrong.  I've heard people expressing doubts about the seriousness of the coronavirus as various predictions of the experts turn out not to have reached the stratospheric heights predicted (though they are certainly bad enough). It's a bit irrational, but quite common for people to observe that we've taken all these draconian measures and then the numbers didn't turn out to be high as they experts predicted, so what was the point of it all. It seems to escape us that perhaps the numbers aren't as high as the experts predicted precisely because of the measures we've taken. The only way you can reasonably argue that the measures we've taken were unnecessary is if we look at countries or states that have taken no restrictive measures and yet have the same rate of viral infection and deaths as those that did.  But to say, "Look we took all these measures and nothing is happening!"  Isn't that kind of the point?

You still hear people going on about the flu and car crashes. So many people die from these mundane events every year yet you don't see the world going into a panic, the argument goes.  I decided to look into these causes of death and what I found surprised me. I truly expected that I'd find that millions die from the flu each year. But in the entire 2018-2019 flu season only 34,200 people died of the flu. Meanwhile in the six weeks between February 19 and April, over 50,000 people died of the coronavirus. So yeah, I'm not sure at all that this "just the flu."

Car accidents are serious killers on the other hand. 1.35 million people die in car wrecks every year--that's 3,700 people every single day. In the United States 38,000 people die each year--approximately 3,166 every month. But check this: On February 28, the first person in the United States died of COVID-19. Just over a month later on March 31, the death toll stood at 3,900, surpassing the typical month of car accident deaths, and the death rate is still rising.  This not the same as car accidents. And another thing about car accidents and the flu. When was the last time you heard about some U.S. hospitals stretched to the breaking point by these things. Do they roll up the makeshift morgues and expand hospital capacity every year during flu season?  And with all those car wrecks why isn't our medical system in a constant state of crisis?

So the experts models didn't pan out as predicted. When folks say as a result that we should no longer trust the experts, who exactly does that leave?  When we say "don't trust the experts" we are saying "don't trust the people who have the most knowledge about a given topic." These "experts" with their "training" and "experience" and "knowledge."  Can't trust them. But if not them, then who? They may be wrong, but they are a lot more right than those of who don't have their expertise.

I'm no expert and I'm wrong yet again, but here are my numbers from the past four days:
I predicted we'd see a total of 284,507 cases and 7,847 deaths in the United States. Wrong, but in the right way (though I wish I was a little more wrong. This is the closest I've been since I started making predictions). We have 275,288 cases. That's an increase of 52%, a 1% tick downward since Tuesday. I predicted 7,847 deaths. The actual number of deaths is 7,094, an increase of somewhere between 74% and 82% (there was a discrepancy in the New York Times death count between late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the morning reports revising the total deaths down by a 100 or so. I guess they made a mistake, but that's not enough for me to deem the source unreliable). Either way it represents a slowing of the rate of increase, which is good. On the other hand, we just had a month's worth of car accident deaths in just four days. That is not good. My predictions for the next four days. By Monday, April 6 we should see 418,438 cases and 12,911 deaths in the U.S. I truly hope to be wrong again. But I'm coming to the horrific realization that I'm not near wrong enough. Even with a slowing rate of increase these numbers are getting so huge that even lower percent increases represent devastating numbers of people.

Now to the states:
Florida: Cases increase 52% to 10,260, 0.05% of the population. Deaths increase 99% to 169, a rate of 1.7%. One of those 10,260 is someone we knew from college who is currently in the ICU.
Ohio: Cases increase 51% to 3,313, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 65% to 91, a rate of 2.7%. Glad to see our percent of increase in cases and deaths has fallen over the last four days.
Nebraska: Cases increase 53% to 296, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 50% to 6, a rate of 2%.