Dispatch from Coronaville: Unraveling the Truth

Ok.. . so I know I've talked about this before, but I'm going to revisit this issue again dealing with the latest bombshell to hit the internet, the press conference that has taken Facebook by storm--the Frontline Doctors of America. This organization has actually gained legitimacy in the eyes of many as the various social media platforms have removed their videos. These days if you want to know if something is true, just wait for the Man to try squelch it.  Then you'll know.  I almost feel it's better to let these things be. Folks are going to believe what they see and they'll believe it even more if you take it away.

So a phalanx of white-coated doctors appear on the steps of the Supreme Court announcing that they have The Answer to Coronavirus. What are we to make of this? Is it really smart or fair to just dismiss them out of hand? Should we not give them a fair hearing?

Here's why I haven't bothered:

• Red Flag: The name alone is problematic. That's a marketing name, designed to elicit an emotional response. "Frontline" is currently an emotionally resonant word that brings to mind those medical professionals risking their lives in this pandemic. And the "of America" implies that this is a national medical association. It might even suggest that most "frontline doctors" are members of this group. This is not true. The name is misleading. But that's only a minor concern. Perhaps of greater concern is that this organization only formed a few weeks ago.

• Red Flag: These guys are peddling what everyone wants. No one--not Dr. Fauci, the WHO, not the CDC--no one wants lockdowns and masks and social distancing.  Nobody personally benefits from insisting on these restrictions.  Any super-secret benefits that these powerful entities might gain are vastly outweighed by the huge losses that everyone is suffering economically and otherwise. "Follow the money" on this one and you'll follow it right down the drain.  There is no upside to a pandemic, for anyone. Not big business which is hurt by a damaged economy, not big government which is hamstrung by a reduced revnue as well, not hospitals which are losing money from being unable to do "non-essential" work, not "Big Pharma" who at present has no patented miracle drug of their own to offer.  There isn't a politician or corporate titan anywhere that's going to allow themselves to get hammered like this just to say, "get Trump out of office."  So the question you have to ask isn't "Why are the mainstream scientists calling for all these restrictions which  no one wants?" (the only logical answer is because, based on our current evidence, it's necessary and effective).  The question we should be asking is "Why is this group giving such an amazing message?" Masks aren't necessary. Social distancing isn't necessary.  School closures aren't necessary  Doesn't that sound wonderful?  You know what they say, if it sounds too good to be true. . .  So let's eliminate this idea that someone wants to "cover up" a simple and effective solution to the coronavirus. It's patently absurd.

• Red Flag: Real scientific findings are built on a preponderance of evidence, replicated by many others.  Doing something in your own practice and feeling it "works" does not equate to scientific findings.  Just because people are doctors doesn't mean that they automatically have sound science backing new treatments unless those treatments have been verified in a systematic and controlled way.

• Red Flag: Real scientific findings aren't announced in dramatic, emotional videos.

• Red Flag: Who are these people?  Do they have a political agenda? It would appear so.  Not a secret one that has to be dug up by intrepid internet sleuths, but an obvious one that can be easily identified? This group seems to be a hodgepodge of doctors in a various medical specialties, some practicing, some not. What unites them is not their shared expertise in a particular area, but their shared point of view.  And their connection  with the Tea Party Patriots Action organization should be huge red flag. Not because it's a conservative organization but simply because it's a political one. It's like if Occupy Democrats was sponsoring a press conference by the CDC.

• Red Flag: What's the takeaway of this message? Stop worrying, don't be afraid. Just go live your life because we have the miracle cure if you get the virus. Has that ever been the responsible messaging of any legitimate medical advance?  Are we supposed to take this as preventative? Just go down to the doctor and ask for a prescription? (If I was conspiracy minded I'd probably write this whole blog about whose really behind promoting hydroxychloroquine, if  not the Big Pharma companies that manufacture it. What they lose with those low profit margins they'd make up in billions of doses worth of volume. But I don't even believe that.)  Does it guarantee we won't get COVID or guarantee that we'll be healed from it when we do get it?  Is there enough available to administer to everyone? (That's a question that we're already dealing with with a potential legitimate vaccine).

If it's somewhat boring--and not an easily shareable video, if it isn't too good to be true, if it is backed by research and not anecdotal evidence, if it's not being peddled by a political organization, if the takeaway is sensible and doesn't play to my wishes and emotions, well then I'll take a look. Otherwise, I will keep on scrolling.

 Most of the time the truth is not "out there." It's right there in your face.

Here are the numbers. As of today, the total U.S. case count is 4,433,376. Of these cases, 189,733 were added in the past three days.  That's around 14,000 fewer than I predicted. This is the second three day period in which we've seen a decrease in case. It's only 5,000 fewer new cases than we recorded on July 26, but I'll take it. We just want to see that trend continue.  Unfortunately our death count spiked up over the past three days. We've lost 151,098 people as of today, and 4,844 of them died in the past three days. That's almost 2000 more than I predicted. Based on the rates of increase represented by these numbers I project 4,646,178 total cases by Saturday, August 1 and 156,084 deaths. At the rate we're going we should hit 5 million cases on or around August 6, in about two weeks.

Nothing much new to report. Florida dips down to 27,568 new cases, but if the pattern holds the state will be back in the 30s by Saturday. Ohio continues to inch down, Nebraska continues to inch up.

Total Cases:

Florida: 451,415 total cases, 2.1% of the population

Ohio: 87,893 total cases, 0.75% of the population

Nebraska: 25,547 total cases, 1.3% of the population

My prediction was spot-on. Florida set a new record for COVID deaths in a 3-day period with 479 deaths since Sunday. The surge of lost lives is not over in Florida, sadly.  On the other hand I think I was completely wrong about Ohio. We have not dodged the worst; the worst is about to come upon us. I counted about thirty days from the initial spike cases to the beginning of the spike in deaths in Florida.  Following that pattern, we are now reaching thirty days since Ohio's case surge began. That means that over the next few weeks we should see a significant increase in deaths in Ohio. Nebraska showed an uptick in deaths but it's too soon to say if this anything other than usual up-and-down pattern we see with deaths on my graph.

Total Deaths

Florida: 6,332 deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Ohio: 3,422 deaths, a rate of 3.9%

Nebraska: 331 deaths, a rate of 1.3%