The Corona Chronicles: Risk Assessment

Is it safe out there?  How do we assess the risks and make our move?

 One of the tricks of this pandemic has been assessing risk. Without any kind of unified guidance each of us have been left to make our own decision based on our own research, gut instincts, need, and comfort level with risk.  We all know the basics: masks, social distancing, avoiding gatherings, but how much wiggle room is there?

At Thanksgiving and Christmas our family quietly made decisions that went against the prevailing wisdom. We are about as careful as anyone we know, but we decided despite the drumbeat of warnings across the land, to visit our families for both holidays. We spent a few days with Barbara's mother at Thanksgiving and about 11 days with my family in Florida for Christmas. On purpose, I didn't say much about these trips. No Facebook posts or photos (though those paying close attention might have picked up where we were), nothing on this blog. I felt a kind of responsibility not to encourage irresponsible behavior in others. If we were doing wrong, I didn't want to be responsible for leading others down that path. Hypocritical? Maybe.  But I also have refrained on passing judgement on others throughout this pandemic even if privately I feel their choices are unsafe and unhelpful.

The thing is, we took pains to assess the risks and minimize them. For both visits we went into a strict quarantine for the two weeks before each trip. We stopped going anywhere. Already we aren't around people much to begin with.  We've been teaching from home, we don't go to church. But when we started our quarantine we cut out grocery store trips and virtually any other kind of even brief contact with anyone else. The biggest reason I didn't make the trip to Texas to attend my friend Chandra's funeral was because of this quarantine. As much I as love Chandra and wanted to be there to mourn her, I couldn't give up the chance to see my mother who I hadn't seen in a year and a half or put her at risk.

Once there we continued to go nowhere and see no one other than our family (who had also quarantined and tested in the two weeks prior).  In Florida, we stayed with my sister and her family. My mom and brother who live close by and had also quarantined were the only other people we saw. We talked about a socially distanced, masked picnic outdoors with extended family but decided to forgo that.  I saw no friends, went to no stores or restaurants. We talked about going to the beach but ended opting against that as well.  We felt we were about as safe as it was possible to be. Yet, I'd always feel a twinge of guilt as I'd hear the continuous refrain of warnings on the news and social media about avoiding visiting family this holiday season.

Were we wrong? I don't think so, even though I'm sure there are those who will disagree (and others who will scoff that of course we weren't wrong! We were overcautious scaredy-cats to begin with! We should have done more!) Our planning was not without flaws. On the drive down to Florida there were numerous bathroom stops and though we planned to do drive through only for food and avoid going inside for restaurants we did up going inside for takeout Subway and Panda Express when we couldn't find ones with drive-throughs. But still on balance, we felt we'd reduced risk enough that we felt we had a good chance of dodging the virus for both ourselves and our families. Both visits were wonderful and now with more than two weeks out from our Florida visit and all parties still healthy, it looks like the gamble paid off.

I don't believe it's practical to eliminate all risk. The goal for me is to manage risk and reduce it. It's all about reducing the likelihood of contracting COVID and weighing that reduction against our practical and emotional needs. My bedrock policy for the most part is avoiding the big crowds in enclosed spaces for long periods of time that are the hallmarks of high risk in this pandemic. I mask up when at stores and other situations where I'll be around others briefly. Beyond that, I just try to assess the risk, minimize what I practically can, and keep on living. That's how we're getting through this, and so far, so good.

As of today there have been 23,437,428 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Another 6,960,157 new cases were added since December 14. We seem to be plateauing at more than a million cases a week, a rate that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago. Among them there more current and former students and their families. It's no longer uncommon to know lots of people who have contracted the virus and even know a few that have been hospitalized. This is a 42% increase in the number of new cases from November to December, and about 1.6 million fewer than I predicted. While I know of people who have died from the virus-family of people I know and friends of friends, no one I know well, personally has died from the virus. I hope it stays that way.  There have 389,944 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 89,893 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 30% increase, 34,092 more deaths than from COVID than we had the previous month, and 20,881 more deaths than I predicted. The horrifying steady climb in deaths over the months this country is truly sobering.

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 33,281,148 total cases by February 15 and a total of over half a million dead:  506, 927. 

The virus seems to have a pattern of visiting its terrors on certain regions of the country and then moving on to others: The hotspots seem to have moved south and west once again, reminiscent of last summer. California has been in the news for it's overstretched hospitals and friends on the ground at the California frontlines confirm this. Florida also is also seeing case numbers that dwarf last summer's surge. Meanwhile our benchmark states in the Midwest all seemed to have peaked already. However, as has been a pattern of this pandemic since the beginning the case numbers don't seem to recede to their previous levels creating a lovely bell curve. Instead they plateau at a higher new normal.  We see this happening in Ohio, Illinois and Nebraska.  Hawaii's numbers don't register on the graph, but the state has had it's second highest average weekly case numbers since September.

Total Cases:

Florida: 1,531,184 total cases, 405,261 new cases, an increase of 36%. This is almost 80,000 more cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,082,410 total cases by February 15, 2021.

Ohio: 807,293 total cases, 236,691 new cases, an increase of 41%. This is 345,332 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: This time Ohio joins the Million Case Club with 1,138,283 total cases by February 15, 2021.

Nebraska: 180,285 total cases, 31,241 new cases, an increase of 21%. This is 22,414 fewer cases than I predicted: Prediction: 218,144 total cases by February 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 23,827 total cases, 4,525 new cases, an increase of 23%. This is 1,244 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: 29,307 total cases by February 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,055,617 total cases, 198,186 new cases, an increase of  23%. This is 273,401 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,298,409 total cases by Feburay 15, 2021

Deaths in Florida have surged past previous records.  All other states have seen deaths more or less plateau in the past month. 

Total Deaths

Florida: 23,612 total deaths, 3,747 new deaths, an increase of 19%. This is 966 more deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 28,098 total deaths by February 15, 2021.

Ohio: 9,990 total deaths, 2,439 new deaths, an increase of 32%. This is 23 deaths more than I predicted, but statistically, I was correct.  Prediction: 13,187 deaths by February 15, 2021.

Nebraska: 1,873 total deaths, 484 new deaths, an increase of  35%. This is 572 fewer deaths than I predicted. Nebraska's rate of increase in deaths has finally slowed. Prediction: 2,529 total deaths by February 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 315 total deaths, 43 new deaths, an increase of 16%. This is 20 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 365 total deaths by February 15, 2021.

Illinois: 19,730 total deaths, 4,275 new deaths, an increase of 28%. This 2,216 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 25,254 total deaths by February 15, 2021.

There were not fewer deaths in all states as I had hoped. My predictions fell the same way they did last month. Florida and Ohio had more deaths than I predicted. The other three states had fewer. How will the new variants vs the new vaccines affect these numbers in the next month?  We shall see.

On Civil War and Censorship

 "I don't need your civil war"

                                     --Guns N' Roses "Civil War"

Are we on the brink of civil war?  That's a question that's been asked a lot recently, some asking with eager anticipation, others with a sense of dread (the second attitude is the right one, by the way).

The events of Wednesday, January 6 shocked the world, but I don't think it was a true insurrection. It was a mob whipped into a frenzy that got out of control. I'm not saying that people didn't come to Washington planning to do more than just wave signs and shout.  What I'm saying is that there is no real organized Resistance that has been able to pull in widespread support from the mainstream. These clowns got into the Capitol and didn't know what to do with themselves. They had no leader (other than the one in the White House. The man they were ostensibly fighting for made no move to support his supporters), no list of demands, no real plan.  If Trump had declared he wasn't leaving office and called on the military to support him, and Biden called on the military to remove Trump, and the military and law enforcement split, with some loyal to Trump and others siding with Biden, well then we'd have a civil war on our hands. That kind of commitment of our lives, our fortunes, our sacred honor--that deep willingness to lay it all on the line for the Cause--it's not Trump's style. And thank goodness.

That said, these divisions aren't going away any time soon, and all it will take is a True Believer, one who is skilled as well as committed to their ideology, to take advantage of our inflamed passions and bring about the conflagration that some so foolishly wish for.  Speaking of which, the enthusiasm some seem to have for Revolution strikes me as ill-informed and immature. This is not new.  The last actual Civil War our nation had was rife with people-- North and South--eager for the nation to come to blows. So it has been in other places and other times throughout history. Foolish people eager to to rush to war, not really understanding what they are getting in to.  I think of the video of the woman tearfully complaining that she'd been maced as soon as she crossed the threshold of the Capitol. " We're storming the Capitol. It's a revolution," she wept. How could they do this to me.  Well, that's how revolution goes, my friend. While I think it's despicable to rejoice in the suffering(and even death, in the case of Ashli Babbitt) of anyone, it seems that expecting a violent revolution to occur without bloodshed is silliness.

One thing that I fear may hasten us down to the road to the place of armed conflict is the unfortunate decisions of some of our social media and tech companies. I feel very strongly that it was a mistake to ban Trump from Twitter permanently. I also feel it was the wrong move to limit people's access to the right-wing social media site Parler.  Let me be clear, I'm not saying that these decisions were true acts of censorship. We tend to have trouble separating government censorship from private entities deciding whether they want to provide a service or not. I believe Twitter, Apple, and others were within their rights to place the limits they did. These platforms are not the "public square" even though we've come feel they are and that we are somehow entitled to them. I don't believe that this is some government-Big Tech cabal bent on shutting down the voices of "regular Americans." That doesn't even make sense when at least until January 20, the levers of governmental might are still controlled by the Trump administration.  How exactly does it work that some low-level "deep state" operatives somehow have that kind of clout with Silicon Valley? No, I think this was tech companies making a performative gesture lest they appear be on the wrong side of history (and vulnerable to lawsuits should any further acts of violence occur). Yes, they know it will upset some of their customers but they're betting that even angry consumers won't leave--especially if easy access to an alternative (Parler) is cut off. 

So if these muzzling actions aren't a "violation of free speech" what's the problem?  Well, even if it's technically not censorship, these actions, even though made by private entities, still amount to a silencing of American voices.  And even though these companies can do this, it doesn't mean they should. What these companies have done is exacerbated the sense of grievance of even more moderate Trump supporters. I know many of us who are against Trump are tempted to dismiss his supporters as a bunch of lunatics. Why should we care how they feel?  But there are ordinary Trump supporters, the kind who while they might feel sympathetic to the rioters in DC would never do that themselves, and were saddened by the violence in the Capitol.  I happen to know a number of these people, and I'm telling you these folks feel more persecuted than ever. These actions, have the unintended effect of potentially radicalizing Trump supporters who might not have otherwise embraced more extreme attitudes.

But even beyond the potential for increased isolation of Trumpists and the greater likelihood of radicalization, is the damage that silencing Trump and his acolytes does to our country.  I understand that there are risks to continuing to allow Trump to have a platform, but I think that the risks are even greater if we take away that platform. For those not already under his spell, I find Trump's shoot from the hip style more often than not leads to shooting himself in the foot.  Let the man talk! Let most Americans see him for what he is. I honestly believe that if he hadn't been rattling on about voter fraud these past two months Loeffler and Purdue would have won in Georgia.  His rhetoric both motivated his opponents and discouraged his allies.  Why shut him down and allow him be painted as a martyr for the cause?  

As for Parler, I understand that there are concerns about site becoming a clearinghouse for planning further violent insurrections, but I don't know that was Apple's call to make. Let the FBI drop some informants in there and keep an eye on the chatter, and if something doesn't feel right, deal with it. 

I realize that it's uncommon to take a stand that differs from the "party line." I saw the pushback one friend of mine who is a Trump supporter received when she dared to criticize the riot at the Capitol in straightforward and simple terms without the usual blame-casting absurdity, excuse-making, and whataboutisms common among her compatriots. I saw how difficult it was to have to prove to your own that you're still "down for the cause."  And so I'm sure that there will be many of my fellow anti-Trumpers that have no patience with standing up for Trump's ability to keep Tweeting and the ability of his devotees to speak on the platforms of their choosing. But I honestly believe the only thing to be gained by forcing our opponents into a corner is well. . civil war. And we don't need that.

The End of Politics

 

This is what comes after politics. First the revolution, then the regime. I can't quite get over the blatant disrespect of our country in this photo. At the very least, look at the careless treatment of our flag. (Photo credit: Getty Images)

For quite some time it's been considered fashionable among people from across the ideological spectrum to hold politicians in derision.  One thing we all agree on, left or right, is that we hate politicians.  We are tired of "politics as usual."  Politicians:  They lie.  They live large on the public dime making a career of so-called "public service."  Politicians: In the pocket of big business. Politicians: Not to be trusted.  We often long for some one who is not a "career politician" who will save our country; someone from outside the system who can gut the system and remake it.  Some of us have become so desperate to be rid of politicians and their politics that we've found ourselves willing to go along with anyone from outside the system regardless of whether the evidence indicates he's fit for the job.

But today I want to point out there is something worse than politics.  There are people worse than politicians. Rather than rejoice at the end of politics, we should fear what comes after politics. Because as problematic as politics is, what comes next is far worse.

You see politics can only really exist in a democratic Republic. You don't have politicians in Communist dictatorships. You don't have politicians in totalitarian regimes.  You will have government bureaucrats. You will have party stalwarts, a cadre of loyalists, but not true politics or true politicians. In the land beyond politics, there is no debate over ideas. There is no agree to disagree. There is no legal opposition. In the world after politics, opposition is treason. In a world after politics, only one side ever wins. Every election is a "landslide victory."  It is simply impossible, unthinkable that the party or the person in power could ever lose. In this world, money still rules and the powerful still abuse the weak, but doors to power are now based on fealty to the Party, to the Person, to the Ideology. In a world without politics the other side is not merely wrong. The other side is evil, bent on cartoonish destruction of everything we hold dear.

Here's the thing about politicians. Their job is to give us what we want. That is literally what we elect them to do, and therein is the Achilles heel of politics, what makes it so distasteful. The problem isn't ultimately with the politicians. The problem is us--the much vaunted American people. Politicians lie because they know the electorate will punish them if they tell the truth. What politician in the United States could reasonably be expected to get elected on the campaign statement: "Look, I may have to raise taxes" or "I may have to cut some prized social services." We don't want to hear the truth when it hurts (unless it's the "truth" about our ideological opponents; then we are all for it).What was it Jack Nicholson said in A Few Good Men:

And what about career politicians?    How can we gripe about career politicians when we keep rehiring them?   It is known that incumbents have a huge advantage. Why is that, if not because we want it so? (While I support term limits in theory, to me it's a cop-out.  We are too lazy to vote them out, so lets just make a law that says we aren't allowed to vote for them anymore). 

And lets talk about the cozy relationship between Big Business and politicians. That's on us too.  Especially, here in the United States, we are entirely too trusting of the private sector.  We are more than happy to give massive corporations untrammeled freedom to do whatever they want. We are double minded when it comes to big business--addicted to the convenience and low prices that they offer, quick to defend their obscene wealth as their just due for hard work and entrepreneurship, reluctant to place any regulations on them, and yet enraged when our elected officials stoop to do their bidding--just like we do. We worship at the altar of business, unaware that unchecked power is as dangerous in the private sector as in the public.

So yes, politics is messy, but it's a mess of our own making.  If we want to improve politics, we have to do better ourselves.  And it is imperative that we do so, because the political monster we've created has learned how to manipulate us. It has figured out how to get us to keep choosing them, by using our own deepest fears, inchoate anger, and entrenched selfishness against us. The road to the end of politics begins with the poisoning of politics.  Who benefits from the message that the "Other Side" is evil? Politicians benefit, because if they can convince their constituents that they are not only the best choice, but the only safe one, they will win over and over again.  And media benefits, because "Good Guys" and "Bad Guys" make for far more compelling viewing than boring disquisitions on the pros and cons of this policy or that. 

I would encourage my fellow citizens to stop parroting the talking points of political figures and media types that demonize people you disagree with. You gain nothing but bad feelings about your neighbors and Facebook friends, and are unwittingly doing the bidding of those who would manipulate and use you for their own gain. 

If today has shown us anything, it's that the toxic sludge we've been contributing to will ironically bring about the destruction of the very system it's been intended to propagate. We've just about reached the end of politics as usual. And that's not a good thing.