One of the tricks of this pandemic has been assessing risk. Without any kind of unified guidance each of us have been left to make our own decision based on our own research, gut instincts, need, and comfort level with risk. We all know the basics: masks, social distancing, avoiding gatherings, but how much wiggle room is there?
At Thanksgiving and Christmas our family quietly made decisions that went against the prevailing wisdom. We are about as careful as anyone we know, but we decided despite the drumbeat of warnings across the land, to visit our families for both holidays. We spent a few days with Barbara's mother at Thanksgiving and about 11 days with my family in Florida for Christmas. On purpose, I didn't say much about these trips. No Facebook posts or photos (though those paying close attention might have picked up where we were), nothing on this blog. I felt a kind of responsibility not to encourage irresponsible behavior in others. If we were doing wrong, I didn't want to be responsible for leading others down that path. Hypocritical? Maybe. But I also have refrained on passing judgement on others throughout this pandemic even if privately I feel their choices are unsafe and unhelpful.
The thing is, we took pains to assess the risks and minimize them. For both visits we went into a strict quarantine for the two weeks before each trip. We stopped going anywhere. Already we aren't around people much to begin with. We've been teaching from home, we don't go to church. But when we started our quarantine we cut out grocery store trips and virtually any other kind of even brief contact with anyone else. The biggest reason I didn't make the trip to Texas to attend my friend Chandra's funeral was because of this quarantine. As much I as love Chandra and wanted to be there to mourn her, I couldn't give up the chance to see my mother who I hadn't seen in a year and a half or put her at risk.
Once there we continued to go nowhere and see no one other than our family (who had also quarantined and tested in the two weeks prior). In Florida, we stayed with my sister and her family. My mom and brother who live close by and had also quarantined were the only other people we saw. We talked about a socially distanced, masked picnic outdoors with extended family but decided to forgo that. I saw no friends, went to no stores or restaurants. We talked about going to the beach but ended opting against that as well. We felt we were about as safe as it was possible to be. Yet, I'd always feel a twinge of guilt as I'd hear the continuous refrain of warnings on the news and social media about avoiding visiting family this holiday season.
Were we wrong? I don't think so, even though I'm sure there are those who will disagree (and others who will scoff that of course we weren't wrong! We were overcautious scaredy-cats to begin with! We should have done more!) Our planning was not without flaws. On the drive down to Florida there were numerous bathroom stops and though we planned to do drive through only for food and avoid going inside for restaurants we did up going inside for takeout Subway and Panda Express when we couldn't find ones with drive-throughs. But still on balance, we felt we'd reduced risk enough that we felt we had a good chance of dodging the virus for both ourselves and our families. Both visits were wonderful and now with more than two weeks out from our Florida visit and all parties still healthy, it looks like the gamble paid off.
I don't believe it's practical to eliminate all risk. The goal for me is to manage risk and reduce it. It's all about reducing the likelihood of contracting COVID and weighing that reduction against our practical and emotional needs. My bedrock policy for the most part is avoiding the big crowds in enclosed spaces for long periods of time that are the hallmarks of high risk in this pandemic. I mask up when at stores and other situations where I'll be around others briefly. Beyond that, I just try to assess the risk, minimize what I practically can, and keep on living. That's how we're getting through this, and so far, so good.
As of today there have been 23,437,428 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Another 6,960,157 new cases were added since December 14. We seem to be plateauing at more than a million cases a week, a rate that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago. Among them there more current and former students and their families. It's no longer uncommon to know lots of people who have contracted the virus and even know a few that have been hospitalized. This is a 42% increase in the number of new cases from November to December, and about 1.6 million fewer than I predicted. While I know of people who have died from the virus-family of people I know and friends of friends, no one I know well, personally has died from the virus. I hope it stays that way. There have 389,944 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 89,893 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 30% increase, 34,092 more deaths than from COVID than we had the previous month, and 20,881 more deaths than I predicted. The horrifying steady climb in deaths over the months this country is truly sobering.
No comments:
Post a Comment