I had expected that by tomorrow we'd have 2,981,853 total cases of COVID-19. I was very close. As of today we are at 2,902,359 total cases. That's an increase of 52% over the course of the month, and four percentage points lower than the rate of increase between May 6 and June 6. I was significantly off on the deaths. We have had a total of 129,889 deaths so far, an increase of 19%. That's 15% less than the previous month. I will use these rates of increase to predict our case numbers and deaths by August 5. I'm not sure how long this surge will continue or whether deaths will start to rise in the coming weeks, but I think using these percentages should be fairly safe. So by Wednesday, August 5, I expect we'll see 4,411,585 total cases, which will be over 1% of the population, and 154,568 total deaths.
The virus continues to surge all across the United States, but our death counts remain stubbornly low. We've dropped back to just about a 1% rate of increase in deaths, with 1339 fewer deaths than I had predicted. And while case numbers continue to surge, the rate of increase dropped to 5.6% meaning that we had almost 50,000 fewer cases than I thought we'd have as well. Based on these numbers I'd predict that by Wednesday, July 8 we will cross the three million mark with 3,064,891 total cases and 131,188 deaths.
I didn't bother showing the top two panels today. Florida is so far off those panels, that showing them wouldn't actually give you any new information.
Florida's surge began a month ago and it has not slowed at all. With 31,500 new cases in just three days the sky is limit it seems. Florida now has the the third highest number of cases in the nation, behind only California and New York. Ohio has also clearly ended it's decline and today posted numbers off the first panel for the first time since I began keeping records. Only Nebraska continues to plod along, possibly establishing a plateau of cases. Both Ohio and Nebraska ended up with significantly lower case counts than I had predicted a month ago. Meanwhile Florida had about twice the number of cases I had predicted.
Total Cases
Florida: 200,103 total cases, 0.91% of the population. Florida's cases increased by a whopping 225% in the past month. If Florida doesn't slow down--and I do expect it will at some point--the state will have 650,335 cases by August 5, about 3% of the state's population.
Ohio: 57,151 total cases, 0.49% of the population. Ohio's cases increased by 51% in the last month, about 24% less than the previous month. I would expect Ohio to have 86,298 cases by August 5.
Nebraska: 19,938 total cases, 1% of the population. Nebraska's cases increased by 30% over the past month. I predict that Nebraska will have 25,919 cases by the end of the month.
Of course the good news in all of this continues to be that there just doesn't seem to be an accompanying surge in deaths. As I predicted Florida's new deaths did dip and they did dip higher up on the chart than they used to, but they still don't keep pace by a long shot with the continuing surge in cases (though it is important to point out that Florida is registering a higher number of deaths than it has since April). Ohio and Nebraska saw death dips as well, though these states seemed to stick to their generally lower pattern of deaths. It's too soon to say that virus deaths have been swallowed up in victory, but it is good that these numbers don't appear to be rising.
Total Deaths
Florida: 3,730 total deaths, a rate of 1.9%. Florida's new deaths increased by 40%, significantly less than in the previous month. Based on this rate of increase I'd expect 5,222 deaths by August 5.
Ohio: 2,911 total deaths, a rate of 5%. Ohio's new deaths increased by 24%, quite a bit less than in May. I predict 3,609 total deaths in Ohio by August 5.
Nebraska: 285 total deaths, a rate of 1.4% Nebraska's new deaths increased by 48% also significantly less than in May. I project 421 total deaths in Nebraska by August 5.
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