It seems like we are taking a massive gamble as the school year approaches. The single, most consistent mass gathering of human beings in our society is school. It's like a church service or crowded bar five days a week, for seven hours a day. We are gambling that the virus will not spread like wildfire through the schools, that even if it does most cases will be so mild we'll barely notice because at least so far children seem to not be hit as hard by COVID-19. We are gambling that the teachers and staff, many of whom are decidedly not "young and healthy" will somehow emerge unscathed as well. (We seem to have forgotten that twenty one public school teachers in New York died of the coronavirus this past spring, out of a total of fifty city education personnel. Fifty! But you know that's normal. Having fifty educators die in a month's time in one city is pretty par for the course. They were probably all old anyway.)
And this gamble is based on what odds? It can't be based on how adeptly we've handled the pandemic. By every measure our nation has failed colossally to contain this virus. We stand alone, as the one country who just never got this thing in hand. Other countries re-opened their schools, but they also got their case numbers down. Their infection trajectory followed a curve our country has never been able to realize. So the gamble isn't based on our handling of the virus. Really it's based on one thing and one thing only: The fervently held belief that at the end of the day the coronavirus is really no big deal. It's not really that dangerous. Not that many people have really died. No precautions are really needed. I will grant that that the one thing that has held true is that our death rate has been declining for quite some time now. Part of our gamble is that opening our schools will not affect that trend.
Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times is quoted in The Week talking about the opening of major league sports. Here's what he says: "When the nation awoke on the morning of March 12, 1,323 Americans had been diagnosed with the coronavirus and 38 people had died," he wrote. "The general concern and panic were so great, MLS and every other professional league in the country suspended play." But on the eve of soccer's return, "twice as many Americans test positive for COVID-19 every hour today. And we're averaging nearly 15 times as many deaths per day now as we had total on March 12." As Baxter asks, "if it was too risky to play then, why is it safe to come back now?" I think the same question can be asked of schools as well.
Schools need to open. Believe me, I get it. I understand the economic toll on our country, and the mental health and academic toll on our students. But what the United States has shown itself too immature to handle is a situation where there are no good solutions. Faced with two harsh realities, we have not done the adult thing and dealt with that head on. Instead, we have childishly decided that one of the realities, well, isn't real.
Right now it's quiet on the classroom front. We teachers and our pupils have been safely ensconced at home since March. But in a little more than a month, we will be called to the front lines. We will no longer be in safety of the rear echelon. We will suit up in masks and/or face shields and join grocery workers, medical professionals, and others as essential workers, in the thick of the fight. And we will bring the children with us, shoving them into the very heart of the danger on the assumption that what we've seen so far will hold true--that they won't really be affected, that they won't be felled in droves.
Here's what gets me about all the people hand-wringing over the economy and carrying on about the threats to their liberties: They're getting their way. Aside from the occasional zealous Costco employee, no one is stopping you from doing whatever you like. My gosh, I am so over Americans complaining about the threats to their liberties like they live in Hong Kong or something. We are spoiled. The slightest inconvenience is a violation of our rights. Come on. Recommendations and mandates alike are routinely ignored. Everything continues to open. Whatever oppression these people think they are experiencing is way overblown. So what we're going to find out is if they are right. If the virus is no big deal, then I will be quite happy and there will be no need for me to extend any apologies for disagreeing with the virus-deniers and corona-minimizers earlier, because they got what they wanted and it turned out fine. But if this goes sideways, and we see our children and teachers mowed down like tall grass, you're going to hear wrath from me that will make my Angry posts look tame. And, I'm deadly serious when I say that if this move to the front leads to serious illness or worse for my wife or children, I will absolutely be re-evaluating some relationships with people I've long held dear unless there is a clear "I'm sorry. I was wrong" coming from them. We don't need to go there yet, because right now all of us are being forced to go along with this gamble that all your stupid YouTube experts, and questionable graphs from three months ago, and dissenting voices crying peace and safety were right all along.
I just want to be clear who sent us to the front as potential cannon fodder. If we go down, it's on you.
Here's where we stand today. We've had a total of 3,054,069 cases of COVID-19, representing a 5.2% increase over the past three days. This is the third consecutive period of a decline in the percent of increase so that is good news. That said, it wasn't much of a decline. I was only off by about 10,000 in my prediction. There have been a total of 131,979 deaths, a 1.6% increase, which was more than I projected by about 800. There appears to be just a slight uptick nationally in the deaths. The next week or so should tell us if that is the beginning of an upward trend or just a blip on the radar. Based on today's percentages, my projection for Saturday, July 11 is 3,212,880 total cases and 134,090 deaths.
Florida continues to ride high with another 23,672 cases in the last three days, it's second highest number of new cases in that space of time. Ohio's numbers dropped some as did Nebraska's.
Total Cases:
Florida: 223,775 total cases, 1% of the population; a milestone for the state.
Ohio: 60,184 total cases, 0.51% of the population.
Nebraska: 20,345 total cases, still about 1% of the population.
In looking at our new deaths, I thought it was worth looking at the overall trajectory since the end of March. I've drawn in in some curves, connecting the dots of the high points of each state to make the path clearer. Since all three states consistently yo-yo between more and fewer new deaths the big picture is crucial to understanding what's happening when it comes to what matters most: life and death. Case numbers are one thing, but far more important is the worst possible outcome for COVID-19. When we look at the broader pattern, the news for Florida is not good. Overall deaths in that state never really registered a strong decline, and there is clear evidence of upward movement over the past week or so. This calls into the question the prevailing assumption that this latest blast of new cases is not resulting in more deaths. Ohio on the other had peaks in the spring and since then a general decrease in deaths. Note that even Ohio's "up" days have never approached it's April and May peaks, while Florida's "up" days are the third and fourth highest death counts since I began tracking at the end of March. Nebraska meanwhile has remained remarkably steady. The most deaths the state ever had in a three day period was 20, and the it's only had more than 15 deaths in a three-day period three times. The state tends to average between 5 and 15 deaths (slighlty more than 1 to 5 deaths a day) and rarely ventures above or below those numbers.
Total Deaths:
Florida: 3,888, a rate of 1.7%. The death rate is much lower for the state than it has been, but given the number of people getting infected, the number of deaths is increasing.
Ohio: 2,991, a rate of 5%.
Nebraska: 289, a rate of 1.4%
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