First off, people tend to expect scientists to be right once and for all about what ever the scientific topic is at hand. But that's not how science works. Science by its very nature is forever unfolding. What appears to be definite can be overturned by the next discovery. Science abides by strict rules for determining fact and those rules mean that understanding must change with the evidence. To those of us on the outside it can seem wishy-washy. First they said this was dangerous, now they are saying it's safe. First they said do this, now they say don't do this, do that instead. Do these guys even know what they are talking about? Man, I'm not listening to them. They don't know. . . Of course changing course based on changing evidence is not an invitation to ignore the guidance scientific findings can provide. This article does a fantastic job of elaborating on the nature of science in the time of coronavirus and why people find it easy to dismiss scientific guidance.
Another thing we tend to do--that scientists do not do--is rely on anecdotal evidence. And it's understandable; what's more compelling than our own first hand experience? Thus we might say "Back in the day we didn't have all this PPE and we never got sick." or "They're inflating the COVID numbers! My uncle died of a heart attack but the doctors put COVID-19 on the death certificate." Those stories are compelling, yes. But. . .they're anecdotal evidence. And anecdotal evidence needs to be backed up by replication. The same thing happening over and over again in trial after trial. Have randomized trials proven repeatedly that medical workers who toughen up their immune systems bv not using PPE get sick less than those who are fragile and protecty and keep their immune systems weak? If so, that's scientific evidence. Are there thousands of documented cases by verified by multiple outside sources of doctors falsely attributing the cause of death to COVID-19. If not, you have your own experience not a conspiracy. I know what we feel we've seen with our own eyes feels incontrovertibly true, but science inhabits a world where things are not always what seems obvious.
On the other end of the spectrum is the worship of anyone with some letters after their name. Interestingly skepticism and reverence for the experts can often coexist--we trust the "experts" who confirm what we want to believe and dismiss those who don't. The doctors on YouTube said. . . Dr. Drew Pinsky says. . .blackballed scientist reveals shocking truth about the "plandemic." I think it's important to remember that all scientists, doctors, or medical professionals are not created equal. Imagine you hear a high school calculus teacher waxing eloquent on YouTube about how reading should be taught to kindergartners. Yes she's a teacher, but kindergarten and reading instruction is not her field. Any knowledge she has on that subject will be minimal at best. If you get conflicting advice on helping your child with phonics you're better off listening to a kindergarten teacher--an expert in her field. So it's not enough to tout experts and scientists and doctors. We need to ask what are the experts in this particular field saying? And then we should modify our own beliefs accordingly. There will always be someone out there to confirm what we want to believe, but that's no way to get to the truth.
Finally, one thing that makes the COVID-19 pandemic more difficult, is that this virus really is new. There is a lot even the experts don't know about it. But here's the thing: That doesn't put you and me on equal footing with the experts. They don't know and I don't know, so my guess is good is theirs. No. No it's not. It's like a kindergartner looking at an Algebra problem, then seeing an 8th grader struggling with the same problem and saying, "Well shoot he doesn't get it either. I'm not listening to him when he comes to help me with my addition worksheet and I am not believing him when he says he 'gets it now'. It's obvious 2x +3 = 12 is 5, because duh, everyone knows 2 + 3 is five. See! You just use a little common sense. Get's you a lot farther than that so-called expertise from those 8th graders who can't even figure it out themselves."
Even if the experts don't know, they know more than we do. And sure they may be wrong. Or we might be. The question we have to ask is what's the price of being wrong? Are we sure it's one we can afford to pay? What does the evidence seem to indicate?
Let's take a look:
The rate of increase in cases and deaths trended down a bit over the past three days. There have been a total of 1,841,407 cases, an increase of 3.5% since Saturday and 13,000 less than I predicted. Total deaths registered a 2.3% increase to 106,861, about 600 less than I predicted. Based on these trends I would expect 1,905,856 total cases by Friday, June 5 and 109,319 total deaths,
Looking to the states, new cases are once again down across the board, with Ohio recording it's lowest number of new cases in almost a month. The countdown clock starts again today with June 16 as the new goal date of two weeks of consecutive declines in the number of new cases.
Total Cases:
Florida: 57,439 total cases, 0.26% of the population
Ohio: 36,350 total cases, 0.31% of the population
Nebraska: 14,611 total cases, 0.75% of the population
All states are showing fewer new deaths over the past three days, with Ohio again recording it's lowest number of new deaths since May 3.
Florida: 2,529 total deaths, a rate of 4.4%
Ohio: 2,218 total deaths, a rate of 6.1%
Nebraska: 187 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%
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