Jun 14, 2020

Dispatch from Coronaville: Comfort Level

I think I know what my comfort level is with the amount of mitigation actions I feel are necessary to keep me relatively safe from the virus (I say relatively because nothing is ever 100% guaranteed).  I base this on what I sense is the best information we have to date on what increases the likelihood of contracting the virus.

I should point out that my comfort level does not necessarily dictate what I will actually do. I have family members who are not at my comfort level and I will defer to their wishes. 

For me, church remains out. Driving around today, I saw the parking lots full as the saints rush back to services.  That won't be me.  Indoors with a lot of people, singing and talking for more than an hour feels too high risk for me.  Same story on movie theaters as they open up. 

I will delay my long-overdue haircut as well.  Too much time sitting in very close proximity to another person outside my household.

Restaurants might be okay, but frankly take-out is working fine. I can wait on going out to eat.

I feel fine going to stores of all kinds.

I would feel comfortable in traveling to the homes of family who have been practicing the same type of social distancing and self-quarantining that I have, and staying there with them.  I would even feel comfortable flying if the flight wasn't full. I prefer not have someone sitting behind me or in the seats next to me though I concede that might not be possible. I would wear a mask and be extra fastidious about hand washing and not touching my face.  

I would feel comfortable taking my kids swimming at a public or community pool, provided that they maintained social distance from others in the pool and it wasn't too crowded.  Same story on beach or park visits.

What I've gathered so far is that the greatest risks come from prolonged time in enclosed spaces in close contact with lots of people.  Picking up the virus from surfaces is much, much less likely and maybe not worth worrying too much about if I stay on top of the hand washing. I'm comfortable wearing a mask when around others.

That's where I am so far. If new information becomes available, I will change my comfort level accordingly.

Our current tally of COVID-19 cases in the United States is 2,096,236.  This is a 3.1% increase over the past three days and 2,300 fewer cases than I predicted. Meanwhile deaths stand at 115,611, a 1.4% increase and about 1,900 fewer deaths than I had forecast. Based on these numbers, I would expect 2,161,219 total cases by Wednesday, June 17 and 117, 230 deaths.



Like a rocket launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida's new cases continue to shoot for the stratosphere. 6,499 cases in just three days! This is another three-day record for the state, the highest number of new cases since I began tracking them. Meanwhile both Ohio and Nebraska seem to be on a definitive decline. Ohio's pattern over all has been consistently down since May 24, despite the occasional uptick. By June 24, if this trend continues I will be ready to "open up" a bit myself and perhaps broaden my comfort zone.
Total Cases:
Florida; 75,560 total cases, 0.35% of the population
Ohio: 40,848 total cases, also 0.35% of the population. If present trends continue Florida is about to displace Ohio as the state with greater percentage of the population infected with the virus.
Nebraska: 16,634 total cases, 0.85 % of the population.


This time all three states were down in deaths, 
Total Deaths:
Florida: 2,930  total deaths, a rate of 3.9%
Ohio: 2,554 total deaths, a rate of 6/3%
Nebraska: 221 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%


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