Dispatch from Coronaville: Too Much Home Work

Yesterday I ended the day feeling really depressed. At first I wasn't sure why. The day had been very productive and I thought I'd used my time wisely. But then I realized: I had spent eleven and a half hours working without a break, beginning at 9:00 AM until 8:30 PM.  And even after a late supper at 8:30 I continued to respond to work-related emails, text messages, and chats until after 10 PM.  No one wonder I ended the day feeling frazzled!

When school first shut down I imagined that I'd have lots of time to read, watch movies, and  putter around the house. That has not been my story.  I didn't anticipate I'd be as busy (if not busier) than I had been when I went to school every day. Granted, I do like the flexibility of my day, working from home, but what I'm finding is that it makes me more flexible to do more work.  Maintaining work-life balance is actually more important (and more difficult) now that I'm at home.

Today went better, I have to say, but I still found I had to place limits on myself to prevent work from taking over. For example, I didn't eat a hearty breakfast this morning (frozen waffles with mixed berries and whipped cream,and a glass of orange juice), but my Zoom and Google Hangout meetings with my students begin at noon and run until 4 PM. For the first half of my meetings I was starving! Clearly a solid, healthy breakfast is a must. I finally got a break when my Algebra I meeting ended a little early and I had time catch a quick lunch. However, I had to make a conscious decision to leave my phone upstairs in my the guest bedroom/office so I'd have a break from the never ending chimes of notifications. I also made it a goal to stop work at 4 PM every day.  I got pretty close, finishing up around 4:15 and heading out for satisfying 45 minute run. Granted I do plan to go back tonight and prep my daily emails, but I still feel I'm doing better. It's also 11:32 PM and I have not gone to bed yet. I did spend some time watching Jojo Rabbit while folding clothes so that has to count for something.

My goal is to get up by seven every morning, have devotions and breakfast and be ready to start working by 8:30.  My mornings will be devoted to lesson prep (making YouTube instructional videos and planning activities) and grading. Class time will begin at noon until 4 PM.  And 4 PM on will be time for me and for my family. Hopefully I'll be in bed by 11 every night. Just not tonight.

The Numbers so far: There definitely appears to be a pattern here. The rate of infections is increasing but the rate at which it is increasing is slowing. Meanwhile the death rate continues to hold just below my predictions. I expected the number of infections to stand at 221,530. Instead we have 187,176.  The deaths are 4,087, now the third highest in the world and only just shy of my prediction of 4,656.  Here's the new numbers I project we'll see by Friday night: With a percent increase of 53%,  284,507 cases and deaths with an increase of 92% (also below 100% for the first time) at 7,847. We are still climbing the peak, but it's taking us longer to get there.

And my three states:
Florida: Infections increase 67% to 6,741, 0.03% of the population. Deaths increase 52% to 85, the same rate of 1.4%
Ohio: Infections increase 56% to 2,199, 0.02% of the population. Deaths increase 120% to 55, a rate of 2.5%. Not good.
Nebraska:  Infections increase 60% to 193, 0.01% of the population. Deaths increase 100% to 4,  a rate of 2%.

I have to say Florida, despite it's reputation and fifth highest infection rate in the nation is not looking too shabby. Yes,it has the highest percent increase in infections but it's got the lowest death rate and the lowest percent increase in deaths--by a significant percentage! While Ohio may be flattening the curve, of the three, Ohio is not the state you want to be in if you test positive.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Blessings

Dr. Amy Acton, director the Ohio Health Department, and our governor Mike DeWine
Photo Credit: TNS

I did not vote for our governor, Mike DeWine. But I sure am a fan now. I really feel grateful for his handling of the Coronavirus crisis in our state.  Every day he gives a press briefing on COVID-19, and the few snatches I've managed to catch left me very impressed. Of course, he's known across the country for being one of the governors taking action early on--a gold standard if  you will,  of response to the virus. I appreciate that, and that he's holding the line, sticking with the science no matter which way the national winds are blowing.  He's demonstrated true leadership throughout this---he is serious, in-charge, decisive, clear.  But he's also compassionate and sensitive to the trauma so many in our state are going through--some from the Coronavirus itself, so many more facing deeply trying circumstances as they've watched their livelihoods evaporate overnight.And I love that Governor DeWine is a Republican, proving that our leaders' responses to things don't always to fall along "party lines."   Listening to his briefs is always encouraging, hopeful, and inspiring even when he's delivering sobering news or difficult directives.  Watching him and our state health department director Dr. Amy Acton always leaves me feeling less anxious.

Speaking of Dr. Acton, she provided another blessing in today's press briefing where she continued to emphasize that we are "flattening the curve" here in Ohio. It's great to know that the actions we are taking are making a difference, that we pushing out the point of peak infection, buying our healthcare heroes more time, and ensuring that our healthcare system won't be overwhelmed. I've included a link to her presentation this afternoon (it's about 10  minutes along).  Like our governor, she has a soothing, encouraging demeanor and I like that she-like him-ended on a personal note.

Another blessing--and they're everywhere when you start to look--is that my old friend Grant Graves appears to have brought his considerable gifts back to the public and we are all better for it. God has gifted Grant with a unique insight into spiritual things. He has an ability to take the simplest truths and put just a little spin on them, like a elite volleyball player's serve that turns what seems like a plain truth into a killer insight that gets right to the heart of things.  Grant has recently started posting short YouTube devotionals, and the first one I saw (number 6 in his series actually) was an ace!  These days of lockdown have their ups and downs.  Some days I feel really great, and others kind of depressed.  Grant reminded me today that when I'm feeling down, to think about what it is I feel in need of and try to provide that for same thing for someone else.

And now to the numbers, Once again my numbers were too high on the new cases, while my predictions for deaths were very, very close to reality. Based on the same or higher rate of increase that we saw in the four days prior to my last entry I expected 146, 277 cases reported and 2,274 deaths. Instead we have 123,072 cases and 2,126 deaths.  This represents a rate of infection below 100% for the first time since I started doing these numbers.  While the new infections are still increasing exponentially, the rate does appear to be slowing. Could it be that we, as a nation, are also succeeding at squashing the curve?  Based on the current rate, I would expect 221,530 cases by Tuesday evening, March 31 and 4,656 deaths.

I'm adding some new numbers to my every four days review. I'd like to compare three states: Florida, a state that is viewed by many as taking a rather slapdash approach to this pandemic; Ohio, a state that has been lauded as a leader in tackling this thing head on, and Nebraska, a state representative of those near the bottom rungs of this epidemic.  Here's our baseline:
Florida: Population of 21.9 million, 4,038 cases representing 0.02% of the population, with 56 deaths, a rate of 1.4% (i.e. not just the flu)
Ohio: Population of 11.7 million, 1,406 cases representing 0.01% of the population, with 25 deaths, a rate of 1.8%
Nebraska: Population of 1.95 million, 121 cases representing 0.006% of the population, with 2 deaths, a rate of 1.7%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Leading the Way (In All the Wrong Ways)

One prediction was off by quite a bit, the other pretty darn close. I predicted on Monday morning that by  tonight we'd have 102,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19  and just over 1000 deaths.  Well, it turns out that instead of more than tripling our numbers, we have slightly more than doubled the rate of infection at 68,354 people.  What surprised me though was the death toll: 972 people have lost to their live to the virus, just 60 shy of my prediction. That can't be good news. The infection rate is not as quick as I thought but the death rate appears to be on track.  At least it wasn't over what I predicted. I just thought if I was going to be off on anything, it would be the death rate.

I estimate, adjusting to account for the data for past four days data, that by Saturday, March 28 we will be at 146,277 infections and will have lost 2,274 people. That just seems crazy to me. This whole thing feels unreal.  And what I'm hoping is that when I return for another entry Saturday evening it will turn out that I was a being an alarmist.

The United States has been racing to the top of the charts.  We are now just 6000 cases away from overtaking Iran for the number two spot, and a mere 13,000 cases from overtaking China. Meanwhile we are rapidly pulling away from Spain who is now a good 20,000 cases behind us. Thankfully our death rate is lower than all of those countries. But we still have the 6th highest death rate globally.  With President Trump talking about "re-opening for business" by Easter, I am not at all confident that this is going to go well for our country.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Corona Connections

The Yip Family Gathering, Sunday, March 22, 2020.  This was such a joy and left me wanting more. Picture top to bottom, left to right are Uncle Robert (my mom's brother), Cousin Raymond (mom's cousin, son of her Uncle Rodrick), Mom, my brother Vince, me, my cousin Landon, Uncle Roland (my mom's brother), Aunt Coleen, cousin Bev (my mom's cousin, daughter of her Uncle Celian), my cousin Nicole (daughter of Uncle Roland), cousin Cherie (cousin of mom, daughter of Uncle Rodrick), and cousin Linda (cousin of mom, daughter of Uncle Rodrick). Missing is cousin DeeAnne (cousin of mom, daughter of her Aunt Yvonne) who was there but didn't have her camera up, my sister Dawn who joined later, cousin Dolly and her mother Margaret (spouse of Uncle Rodrick), and Colin and his mother Dora (spouse of Uncle Celian) who joined us by phone.  Whew! I hope I got that all right! Remarkably with only one days notice everyone who could come did come. I guess with the COVID-19 lockdown most of us don't have much to do!

We've really been fortunate so far. No one in our family is sick or been in contact with someone who is sick. We've got salaried paychecks that haven't been impacted by having to work remotely. We actually can stay home instead of having to work in risky situations like many of my my friends in the front line healthcare professions. In addition there has been an unexpected blessing, which is the focus of my blog today.

But first, a look at the numbers. On Thursday, March 19 I predicted that by yesterday, Sunday, March 22, we should have 26,300 cases of the Coronavirus here in the United States, and 433 deaths. It seemed outrageous at the time to add 16,000 cases in just 3 days.  But by Sunday evening we had over 32,000 cases--over my projection, and 416 deaths, just barely under.  With a higher percent increase of 220% my new projection for Wednesday, March 25 is that we will have 102,400 cases and will have surpassed China's total numbers since the start of the outbreak. Deaths will stand at 1,032. If, in fact ,the increased infection numbers are due largely to wider testing availability hopefully the deaths will be lower.

South Korea is interesting to watch.  I look at the New York Times Coranavirus Outbreak maps for the world and the United States at least twice a day. They are pretty accurate (although sometimes our local newspaper, the Columbus Dispatch has more accurate numbers for Ohio. But the NYT always catches up eventually).  I've noted that South Korea is increasing at a much slower rate than most other countries.  Their infections have been in the 8,000's for so long now and their death rate remains stubbornly low too.  Clearly they are doing something right--something we are not doing. I've heard that the key to their success at managing the outbreak has been widespread testing of everyone (not just those that are symptomatic) and among other things, a commitment to self-quarantining as means of protecting others as opposed to protecting oneself.  Here in the United States widespread testing doesn't even seem to be possible, and it seems to me our focus has been "how can I protect myself from the virus"  as opposed to "let me social distance for the sake of others". It's a small but important distinction.

 A Twinge of Fear. Up until yesterday I've really not been fearful of the virus itself. I take all the precautions recommended by the CDC and so on, but I've felt pretty certain that I won't get the virus and if I do that I'll survive it.  But then, yesterday COVID-19 entered my six degrees of separation.  A man by the name of Michael Bane posted a Facebook account of his horrifying struggle with the virus.  He went to Andrews University and many of my friends, including my cousin know him well. The combination of that closeness and the hair-raising ordeal he's been through made it all feel so  much more real to me.  And for the first time I felt a twinge--just a twinge-of fear of the virus itself.

Connections. But my main focus of this blog is not the numbers or the fear. It's relationships.  One of the unexpected blessings of this global ordeal has been the opportunity to reconnect with people I love, connect on a deeper level with others, and connect for the first time with still others.

Last night my Uncle Robert hosted a virtual gathering via GoToMeeting of all of the offspring of my grandmother and her three siblings.  It was a gathering of the Yip family, the Chinese side of our family.  Of course mom, and my uncles I knew very well, but most of the rest their cousins I had only met once or twice years ago and many I had never met at all. It was really amazing to see these strangers who look nothing like me and realize that they are all my family. It reminded me a lot of the family reunion on my dad's side back in 2017.  They all seemed like such great people--funny, kind, gentle folk.  Grandma and all of her siblings have passed away, but  Dora and Margaret,the spouses of her two brothers joined us by phone and it was so nice to hear their precious voices. At least one of my mother's cousins, DeeAnne, I feel like I've gotten to know and appreciate through our Facebook friendship. I've seen photos but never met her and it was cool to meet her and her husband virtually. It was one step closer to an in person meeting.  I felt a strong desire to get to know these people better, and I think my only sadness was that with the various technical difficulties--feedback from unmuted mics, some not being able to see all the participants on the screen--we didn't get to talk really that much.  I didn't have much to say myself but I wanted to hear stories. I wanted to hear about Uncle Roddy, Uncle Celian, Auntie Yvonne and of course Grandma. I wanted to know their journey and get to know the people who came from them.  When the gathering ended, I was grateful but also wanting more.  I'd like to do it again and hopefully get more stories.

Also this past Sabbath, we had our first official meeting of the "First Family SDA Church".  Basically it was Mom, Vince, Dawn & Jim and their kids, Uncle Roland and Aunt Colleen, Nicole, and our family getting together via Google Hangout to have church together.  It took us about an hour to get the technical kinks worked out, but once we did we had a really nice time of prayer, praise, and spiritual encouragement. Uncle Roland even played a guitar piece for special music and I had a story for the kids.  After the "service" was over everyone hung around to "fellowship" for another hour or so.  Later that evening we got together for "AY" where our boys presented a praise dance/juggling routine they came up with.  It's strange how it took being cut off from the world to reconnect with family that I normally wouldn't talk to except at Sabbath lunch during our summer or Christmas Florida visits. Next week Barbara's mom will be attending as well. Hit me up if you'd like to join us!

My Corona Classroom. Two laptops, my work computer for virtual instruction with my students and the home computer for my boys to work on. Papers to grade from pre-lockdown days spread out  on the bed along with textbooks and other resources.  At least I don't have to decorate. I may be the only person physically in the room, but every school day it's filled with virtual chatter, laughter, learning and real love.

Last, but not least are the current connections deepened over broadband.  Realizing that I may not teach my 8th graders in a real-world classroom again has been heartbreaking.  We are determined to have some sort of graduation for them--though when and how that will happen we can't say. And as for their class trip--this epic journey to Hawaii--a trip that they've already raised many thousands of dollars for, we are hoping to postpone to July.  But, my heart has been so touched by my students interactions online. Google Hangouts has been our central form of communication. Every morning I'd pop on to the Hangout to see them chatting away, making jokes and regularly expressing affection for each other.  I haven't had a such a close-knit class in a very long time and it is a beautiful thing to see and be a part of. Every afternoon we'd have our video hangouts to grade assignments and take questions on anything they needed help with. It was such a blessing to see them in their own environments--their safe places, to hear their voices. Ironically, even though we are physically apart, I feel like I've gotten to know them so much better, and I've found them to be even more amazing than I realized.  This week we are on our previously scheduled "spring break" so there's no new work to assign and the chatter on Hangouts is much less.  But to be honest--I can't wait to "see" them all again next week when online school resumes.

Dispatch from Coronaville

My friend Heather posted this meme and I just had to steal it. It was just the perfect intro to this post.

This was  originally going to be just a quick Facebook post, but then I thought that with the unbelievable changes that have consumed the world as we know it thanks to a mindlessly replicating virus, I might want this in my blog officially, for the Record.

A couple of miscellaneous thoughts a week after our life suddenly turned upside down:

First some numbers.  I'm just a middle school math teacher--not a statistician, not an epidemiologist, but I decided to play around with some numbers using some of the concepts I'd just been teaching my 7th grade class:
In the past four days we've seen a 163% increase in the number of people infected with the coronavirus.  If the number of cases increase at a constant rate we should be be at 26,300 cases by Sunday.  Likewise there should 433 deaths by Sunday. Of course the increase has been exponential not constant so far, so this should be conservative projection.  I will revisit these numbers on Sunday to see how far off I was.  Right now, it feels like nah, there's no way those numbers will be that high by Sunday. Could be I live in Denial, Ohio. We'll see.

Second a few thoughts on the the argument that these extreme measures to flatten the curve aren't worth the damage to the economy given the relatively few number of people that will die as percentage of the population as a whole. I don't find that argument compelling when it's predicated on the assumption that won't be me or anyone I love.  It would be a more intellectually compelling argument to say "even if it's me--I mean statistically it's not likely--but even if it's me that contract the virus and dies from it, the nation is better off as a whole and I'm willing to take one for the team.  Or: "Even if it's my mother-highly unlikely but still--I'm willing to sacrifice her because the vast majority of Americans will be fine."  Perhaps Rush Limbaugh could lead this charge--he is after all immunocompromised himself--so he'd make a great poster boy for this national movement of self-sacrifice for the sake of our great nation.  But of course that won't happen.  We always think it won't happen to us. And we are almost always right.  Except for when we are not.

I am worried about the economy. I can't imagine what it must be like to watch your income just evaporate overnight like that. And that is the story for so many people in this country.  I mean can we really just stop the economy like this? I just don't see how it's sustainable, and I suspect the fallout will be far greater than we imagine.

I would like to know more about the swine flu pandemic of 2009.  Why is this so different? Apparently a lot of people died--I guess it was a big deal--but it's barely a blip on my radar and certainly there was no world wide lock down. I suspect it's because the curve was "flatter" that people got infected over a longer period of time, allowing the medical system to cope more or less. But I really don't know.  If anyone has some good information on this shoot me a link (and don't send me any conspiracy theories. I don't believe in them. The reasons for that are for another blog entry).  I think when something "obvious" to me isn't obvious to the the experts I think it's a mistake to assume that they are the ones who are wrong.

Just a few thoughts from Coronaville.

What's the Scratch?

Since August  of last year I've been a staff writer for The Scratch, an online news source for Seventh-day Adventists.  The weekly news brief was founded by young, active-in-the-church Adventists Ryan Becker and Kevin Christensen and features writers across generations from Baby Boomers to Gen X to Millenials to Gen Z.  I suppose you could argue that as a writer for the Scratch I'm a little biased when I say that I think this is a vital resource for SDA church members.  There are already so many Adventist media outlets from official outlets like the Adventist Review to independent outfits like Spectrum.  What could a new outlet possibly bring to the table that's not already there?

I think The Scratch has three elements that it make essential to every member that wants to know what's going on in their church.

First, The Scratch is unbiased.  Getting unbiased information about what's going on in the world church is a tricky proposition.  Virtually all of the church-sanctioned media outlets are more about public relations or devotions than news.  This is not a criticism. I think it's entirely appropriate that the Adventist Review serve as source of inspiration and information about what great things are happening in the church. But if there are things that aren't going so well in the church; when there are stories that might not make the church look so good you're not going to find them in the Review or any of the union publications like the Visitor or Southern Tidings.  On the other hand Spectrum magazine and others ranging across the conservative to liberal spectrum (no pun intended) exist to cast a critical eye on the church proper.  They serve an important purpose in challenging members to think critically and evaluate carefully what is going on in the church.  But what if you just want to know what's going on in the church without  PR puffery or jaundiced critique? That's where The Scratch comes in. Our editors have made it clear that every piece we submit should stick to just the facts and avoid editorializing.  The closest you'll get to personal opinion is in the "Word on the Street" segment at the end of our "Need to Know" brief where we''ll summarize what people are saying from all sides of the issue.

Second, The Scratch is short.  This blog entry is already longer than an entire Scratch News Brief. The Scratch is a news brief not a news magazine. We know you're busy and in The Scratch you'll find a quick and reliable way to know what's happening now in the Seventh-day Adventist Church in five minutes or less.  If you have the time and want to know more or dig deeper, every Scratch article includes links to our sources where you can explore the issue in greater depth.  Each weekly news brief includes one longer "Need to Know" article and two to three one paragraph "Ought to Know" briefs.  It's all there on one page.  There may be other independent outlets like Adventist Today that strive to provide unvarnished hard news about the Adventist church, but none that I know of do it as concisely as the Scratch does.

Third, The Scratch is current.  Because The Scratch releases a news brief every Friday (so that you show up for church Sabbath morning fully in the know), the latest news is always included. A monthly release would mean by the time you get the news it's no longer the latest, it's just late.

So there you have it.  For the latest, unbiased news on the Adventist church in five minutes or less make The Scratch part of your routine. You can link to the site above and then, if you'd like, sign up to get The Scratch brief delivered to your inbox.