Corona Chronicles: Live with It

 

A new view to close out this series.  When I began the Corona Chronicles last I took a year I took a photo from the window of the guest bedroom that I used as my office. Now we've given that room to my older son so that he can have his own room, and my office is now a corner of the family room. This my view now.

Well here we are, at the end of the Corona Chronicles.  At just over a year, this post will be the final regular entry in this series (though I may return from time to time with an addition to the series if I find something to say).

Of course the pandemic isn't over. Far from it.  In fact we are in the midst of yet another surge, that while beginning to abate in some parts of the country is now ramping up here in Ohio. But I've exhausted everything I can think of to say on this topic.  The familiar ebb and flow of surge and improvement seems destined to continue for quite some time to come. 

I've noticed something though. It seems that even though we now have a variant of COVID-19 that is far more contagious than the old-school version, and even though parts of the country are experiencing record infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, we seem to moving ahead with returning to normal life.  We seem to have decided that when it comes to COVID we will live with it, whatever that means.  We are not going back to lock downs and cancelled events.  Even the most cautious organizations don't appear to be planning to cancel or limit their events in any meaningful ways.  We are willing--some of us anyway--to wear a mask and get the vaccine, but we've no plans to change our lifestyle otherwise.  I include myself in this "live with it" approach.  I'm teaching fully in person this year and my school appears to have no plans to shutter their doors even for a short period. I plan to visit my mom in Florida this weekend (provided that I test negative. I woke up with sniffles and congestion and took the day off work. I will get a COVID test this evening just to be on the safe side.  I really think it's just allergies. I feel fine and in fact, even the congestion seems to be mostly gone now).  And I've got tickets to see Mat Kearney in concert next month.  So far the show appears to be going on. 

As I was reflecting last weekend on the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, it occurred to me that those terrorist attacks were tailor made for our strengths as a nation.  This was the terrorists great mistake.  They didn't understand that we Americans will allow nothing to deter us from living our normal lives.  You might knock us down for a moment, but we rush to the aid of those in need, even if it costs some of us our lives.  We will rebuild.  And then we will get right back to it--shopping, celebrating, working, worshiping, and traveling, just like always.  That is what we do. 

And that is how we have ultimately responded to this current crisis of a lifetime. I'm not sure that "living with it" is the best response for this type of crisis. I wonder if a pandemic makes a vulnerability out of what is a strength in a terrorist attack--our determination to keep on living our normal lives.  But it doesn't matter.  That is what we Americans do.  And only time will tell whether our decision to live with it is one we can well . . .live with.

As of today, September 15 there have been 41,448,621  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Another 4,764,593  new cases were added since August 15  This month's numbers represent an average of  an 13% increase in the number of new cases over the past month, and 1,829,871 more than I predicted. There have been 664, 231 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 43,180 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 7% monthly increase.  It is also 29,517 more deaths than I predicted.  I had hoped to see a peak and drop off in cases and deaths in the past month and instead the numbers of deaths are tens of thousands and the cases hundreds of thousands higher than I predicted.  I am retiring my crystal ball and won't be making any more predictions. However I can't help but wonder how much higher we can go.  I will likely keep these charts live, maybe updating once a month instead of once a week so readers who chance upon these posts in months and years to come will see updated data not reflected in the post itself.

 

Only Florida appears to be on the downside of this current surge, though it appears Hawaii may also have peaked.  In other states, new cases are still rising with no certainty about what heights they may yet reach.  Nebraska and Illinois' increases have been in the single digits, but the other three states are posting double digit rates of increase.

Total Cases:

Florida: 3,442,090 total cases, 564,697  of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 20%. This is 39,556  fewer cases than I predicted.  I have this one student who is constantly removing his mask in class. For awhile he didn't even bother to come to school with a mask and we'd have to give him one every day. I would jokingly tell him he should move to Florida where the governor would have his back. "Don't you worry, young man," DeSantis would tell him, "If you don't want to wear a mask you don't have to!"

Ohio: 1,311,518 total cases, with 153,736 new cases being added over the past month. The rate of increase rose to 13%. This is 109,740  more cases than I predicted. Ohio appears to be riding a COVID wave that may set a new pandemic peak record.

Nebraska: 254,850 total cases, of which 21,447 are new cases, an increase of 9.2%. This is 13,728 more cases than I predicted: Shout-out to my high school classmate and Nebraska resident Tana Hagele Pageler who has been a faithful follower of my Corona blogs since the start of pandemic. She was the inspiriation for including Nebraska among my benchmark states.  Thanks for your thoughtful observations and commentary, Tana.  Your reasonable and perhaps more conservative viewpoint has been invaluable along the way.

Hawaii: 70,504 total cases, an average of 22,128 new cases last month, an increase of  46%. This is  7,615 more cases than I predicted.  I added Hawaii to my benchmark states because it's where my 8th grade class of 2020 had planned to go for their class trip.  That trip has now been pushed back to summer 2022, just as my formers students are getting ready to start their junior year of high school.  Hopefully by then, Hawaii will be in better shape.  As it is the New York Times database shows Hawaii on the downside of its worst surge of the pandemic. So at least in the near-term things are looking up.

Illinois: 1,582,811 total cases, 120,723 new cases, an increase of  8.3%. This is 62,240 more cases than I predicted. My friend J Carlos lives in the Chicago area and I added Illinois to my benchmark list last September as a nod to him. I find it interesting that despite having similar size populations, Illinois has not surged as high as Ohio has.

All states are now seeing an increase in COVID deaths that is higher than I predicted.  Florida and Hawaii have shown double digit rates of increase in deaths over the past month.

Total Deaths

Florida: 49,251 total deaths, of which 8,485 are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 21%. This is 5,836 more deaths than I forecast. I actually had to go back and double check my numbers to make sure I'd updated them properly last month. I did. This is like having two September 11 attacks (and then some) in the past month in Florida. Truly horrific. But hey, Live Free and Die. . . wait, is that how the quote goes?

Ohio: 21,265 total deaths, of which 651 are new deaths, an increase of 3%. This is 445 deaths more than I predicted.  

Nebraska: 2,613 total deaths. This includes 49 new deaths, an increase of  1.9%. This is an average of 21 more deaths than I predicted. 

Hawaii: 657 total deaths,  including 112 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 21%. This is 96 more deaths than I forecast.  It's worth nothing that Florida and Hawaii have notched the same percent of increase in deaths over the past month.  The numbers are different of course because the Florida has a much larger population, but the that percent of increase shows the two vacation destinations have been on similar trajectories during this latest surge.

Illinois: 27,008 total deaths, 916 new deaths, an increase of 3.5%. This 655 more deaths than I predicted.