Oct 11, 2020

The Corona Chronicles: The New Normal

 It's been a month.

If you know what I mean.

It's also been more than a month since the last edition of the Corona Chronicles and I've returned to look back on how we've fared in September. I'm not even sure where to begin. The president's contracting COVID has done nothing to change our national stance on the virus. And so what we have is a very static situation in the United States. A steady stream of cases and deaths that might spike in one part of the nation and wane in another part, but overall add up to not much improvement (and things not getting a whole lot worse either).

For us the past month has also developed it's own steady rhythm. Barbara is teaching in person again at her school, after initially starting remotely.  Her school is doing hybrid instruction, where some kids are at home all the time, and some come in on alternating days twice a week for instruction. My school began remotely on September 8th and will continue that way at least until the Christmas holidays. So the boys and I are at home everyday. We're still working on getting them to bed at a halfway decent time, but most mornings they manage to drag themselves out of bed in time for the hot breakfast I make them and get to their 9 o' clock Zoom sessions on time.  I have a staff worship Zoom at 8:15 AM and then open my Zoom session at 8:45 with some upbeat morning music, while my 8th grade homeroom wanders in.  Worship starts at 9 and we are off and running for the day.  My teaching is a mix of fairly brief direct instruction, pretty generous use of the Zoom breakout rooms so the students can work together in small groups, and some time for them to work independently.  Lunch is at 12:15 and I spend that time getting my boys their lunches and grabbing a bite for myself.  Classes continue at 1 and school officially ends at 4 PM, though I will often wrap up Zoom sessions by about 3, leaving the students time to work independently for the rest of the day.


The view from my "office/classroom window"

On Tuesday,  Friday and Sunday afternoons about a dozen or so students come over to my house after school to train for our annual 10K Run.  We are doing the Autumn Squatch 10K Trail Run again this year, which is being held as a virtual event (we just send in our times and distance).  We run around our neighborhood for thirty minutes on the weekdays and increasing distances on the weekends. I cook four days a week (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sabbath) and so most evenings I'm busy making supper, spending time with the boys, attending various meetings via Zoom, trying to get some grading and planning done (Planning is especially laborious now, since everything has to be put on Google Classroom). I usually go to bed later than I want to. Making time to write is a challenge (which is why this blog is a week late).

There are things I like about this "new normal" at least, professionally. I'd always thought I'd be comfortable working from home and I am. I like that the students complete all their assignments digitally. Even when we go back to in person, I think I'd like to keep my assignments mostly digital. I like that when the students work independently, I can get some work done unlike in person, where I am still providing supervision and monitoring them to make sure they are on task even when I'm not engaged in direct instruction.  I like that classroom management is now so much less of a burden. The mute button is a wonderful thing. But even without that, I find that many of the students who would normally be discipline problems are quiet and say little.  They just don't seem motivated to "cut up" in the virtual space where they don't have a live audience.

There are also things I don't like. For one, a job that usually had me on my feet all day, now has me in a chair virtually all day. I miss interacting with the students and I feel sad for them that they are not able to be with their friends.  There are a few students that seem to be doing more poorly than they would if they were in person. But in general, the kids who excelled in person, are excelling at home. And those that didn't do much in person, still aren't doing much learning from home. In fact, even those with consistent internet connection problems tend to be the same ones that seemed to have problems staying on task and getting their homework when at in-person school in the Before Times. It makes me think that the lack of equity of the students learning from home was affecting them even when they came to school.  It is also hard to teach while both of my boys are learning online at the same time, though it's not as bad as I thought it would be. Ezra is surprisingly independent for a second grader and doesn't need my help as much as I thought he would. He does, however, come into my home office/classroom several times a day to ask when lunch will be or to announce it's snack time with no regard for whether I might be in the middle of a lesson at the moment. Beyond my work life, there's not much I like about the New Normal. I still pine for things like movies, in-person church services, concerts, and other gatherings. It seems many people have just gone back to living regular life--having gatherings, going out to eat, taking vacations, and visiting family. I feel keen to get back to those things too.

Let's take a look at the numbers.  As of yesterday, October 10, we had 7,725, 717 total cases of the coronavirus in the United States. This is about 500,000 fewer cases than I predicted, a total of 1,466,628 new cases in the past month and a 23% increase.  There have been 213,876 deaths from the virus. This is just over 12,000 fewer deaths than I forecast; that's a 14% increase and 25,475 new deaths in the past month. The charts below tell the story.  Though there has been an uptick since the start of September, at least so far the increase does not seem to be dramatic and may be leveling out.  And our deaths are virtually flat: a steady 5,000 people or so each week succumbing to the virus. 





Based on this pattern, I expect 9,502,632 total cases by November 10 and a total of 243,417 dead from the virus.

On to the states: Florida, Ohio, and Illinois all seem to posting moderate increases, with Nebraska maybe tacking down just a little bit. Hawaii's numbers are too small to make for a meaningful chart. I can tell you that island state started with over 1,200 new cases in a week back at the start of September and then dropped to by about half that much weekly. Hawaii has averaged about 691 new cases every week since September 12. Hawaii, though it has far fewer cases, has actually showed the greatest percent increase in cases over the past month, closely followed by Nebraska. Illinois and Ohio had the same percent increase but Illinois numbers were far larger, despite the two states having similar populations. I'm guessing this is largely due to the city of Chicago which I expect is responsible for a large chunk of Illinois' numbers.  Again no real improvement for anyone.



Total Cases:
Florida: 728,913 total cases, 85,054 new cases, an increase of 13%. This is more than 100,000 fewer cases than I predicted.  Prediction: 823,672 total cases by November 10, 2020.
Ohio: 166, 102 total cases, 36,317 new cases, an increase of 28%. This about 10,400 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 212,611 total cases by November 10, 2020.
Nebraska: 50,394 total cases, 14,859 new cases, an increase of 41%. This is about 3,000 more cases than I predicted: Prediction: 71,056 total cases by November 10, 2020.
Hawaii: 13,641 total cases, 4,013 new cases, an increase of 42%. Prediction: 19,370 total cases by November 10, 2020
Illinois: 320,113 total cases, 69,276 new cases, an increase of 28%. Prediction: 406,543 total cases by November 10, 2020

The death rate in the states remains pretty steady as well. Florida and Ohio seem to be gradually trending down--very gradually,  while Illinois seems to be gradually trending up. Hawaii and Nebraska's numbers are far too low to show up meaningfully on the graph, but Nebraska loses about 22 people every week from the virus while Hawaii loses an average of 17 people each week. This seems about right as Hawaii's population is less than Nebraska's by about 458,000 people. Nebraska's (as well as Florida and Ohio's) deaths have zig-zagged over the past month increasing one week, and decreasing the next with the highest number of deaths this past month recorded in the first half of September. The 24 deaths this past week in the Cornhusker State were the third highest weekly count of the month for the state (or the third lowest if you're a glass half-full type of person). Hawaii and Illinois have posted steady increases since September 26, with both states posting record high numbers of deaths for the month this past week: 24 for Hawaii and 201 for Illinois. Despite Hawaii's lower numbers of deaths I'm concerned about their rate of increase. Illinois has almost ten times the population of Hawaii and the large city of Chicago but Hawaii's rate of increase was ten times that of Chicago. I know twenty-four doesn't seem like a lot, but for Hawaii it is a lot--a lot more than I think it should be for a state its size.





Total Deaths
Florida: 15,185 total deaths, 3,375 new deaths, an increase of 29%. This is almost 4,000 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 19,589 total deaths by November 10, 2020.
Ohio: 4,994 total deaths, 738 new deaths, an increase of 17%. This is about 70 deaths fewer than I predicted. Prediction: 5,842 deaths by November 10, 2020
Nebraska: 523 total deaths, 108 new deaths, an increase of 26%. This is 17 more deaths than I predicted. This is the second month in a row that Nebraska's death toll has exceeded my forecast. Prediction: 659 total deaths by November 10, 2020
Hawaii: 165 total deaths, 85 new deaths, an increase of 106%. This is the sharpest increase in deaths of the five states I've studied. Prediction: 340 total deaths by November 10, 2020.
Illinois: 9,234 total deaths, 829 new deaths, an increase of 10%. Prediction: 10,157 total deaths by November 10, 2020.

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