Corona Chronicles: Muddling Through

We're doing it the American way, I think.  And by that, I mean muddling through.  History will never record our nation as having handled the pandemic well.  But the virus has also failed to drive us to our knees.  We are managing. We are muddling through.  Our restrictions weren't restrictive enough to be really effective. Our vaccination drive will not be successful enough to really suppress the spread of the virus. In much the same way that we hold on to the customary system of measurement and embrace a inefficient, expensive system for paying for healthcare, we are not really succeeding exactly, yet all the while claiming that Our Way is the Best Way.  I think we'll be okay, to be honest. More people will die than needed to, but the numbers will remain within an acceptable cost of doing the business of being America.

I don't have much more to say than that.

As of today, July 15 there have been 33,932,150  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Another 490,043  new cases were added since June 15  This month's numbers represent an average of  a 1.5 % increase in the number of new cases over the past month, and about 45,031 fewer than I predicted. There have been 607,365 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 7,879 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 1.3% monthly increase.  It is also 7,108 fewer deaths than I predicted.  The news reports cases are bumping up as the Delta variant spreads, but thankfully it mainly strikes the unvaccinated and so far this variant is proving to be no more severe than the others, though it is much more contagious. 

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 34,441,132 total cases by August 15 and 615, 261 deaths.  

The rate of increase in cases has exceeded my predictions in Florida and Nebraska. However only Florida and Hawaii show rates of increase above 1%. As you'll note in the next chart deaths continue to drop, so the new cases may not be cause for alarm as many of them may be mild case.

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,383,068 total cases,  82,282  of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 3.6%. This is 68,477  more cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,468,858 total cases by August 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,115,242 total cases, with 8,017 new cases being added over the past month.. The rate of increase dropped to 0.7%. This is 9,699 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,123,049 total cases by August 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 225,600 total cases, of which 1,753 are new cases, an increase of 0.8%. This is 86 more cases than I predicted: Prediction: 227,405 total cases by August 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 37,175 total cases, an average of 1,406 new cases each month, an increase of  3.9%. This is  382 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 38,624 total cases by August 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,402,524 total cases, 10,739 new cases, an increase of  0.8%. This is 14,313 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,413,744 total cases by August 15, 2021

Deaths have continued to drop over the past month.  All bench mark states are down in deaths since June 15. And all states have a rate of increase in new deaths at 3% or lower.

Total Deaths

Florida: 38,282 total deaths, of which 1,017  are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 2.8%. This is 287 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 39,353 total deaths by August 15, 2021.

Ohio: 20,411 total deaths, of which 320 are new deaths, an increase of 1.6%. This is 262 deaths fewer than I predicted and we still have not reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,737 deaths by  August 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 2,535 total deaths. This includes 18 new deaths, an increase of  0.7%. This is an average of 128 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,552 total deaths by August 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 518 total deaths,  including 15 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3%. This is 1 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 533 total deaths by August 15, 2021.

Illinois: 25,803 total deaths, 313 new deaths, an increase of 1.2%. This 452 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 26,113 total deaths by August 15, 2021.