To be honest, I haven't found it as difficult as one might expect to go back to pre-COVID normal. The feeling of being naked without my mask was short lived. I don't feel worried being in close proximity to others. The class trip we took a few weeks ago was like time-traveling back to 2019--for me at least. My students were pretty vigilant about their masks for most of the trip--which is just as well since they aren't vaccinated. But as soon as we crossed the Mason-Dixon line, masks as as the norm disappeared. By the time we got to Universal Studios on Tuesday, June 1, it was as if there had never been a pandemic. The park was packed, shoulder to shoulder. The lines were long, not just for the rides but for the food, to get a cup of butterbeer in Harry Potter's Wizarding World, everything. Masks could still be seen from time to time, but it was about typical of what you might see in a typical Asian city in the Before Times.
8th grade students, parents, and me at the entrance to Universal Studios Florida on Tuesday, June 1, 2021. I didn't push the kids to wear their masks outdoors. The science is clear that risk of spreading the virus outside is minimal, even among the unvaccinated. (BTW, my usual "window" photo that I use for my Corona Chronicles entries is missing because I am in Florida visiting my family and thus wasn't able to take that photo. It will be back in July).
I find that while for much of the pandemic I probably appeared to some to be super-cautious and fearful, now I may look like a reckless, virus-denier. But I'm still the same person and a close look at the way I've approached this pandemic will reveal that I've been pretty consistent all along. I've never been afraid--not once--during this whole time. I have not feared the virus. I do not fear the vaccine or the masks. It's not because I'm braver than most. It's just that I base my actions on the broad consensus of scientific experts (not just one, two or a handful of doctors or Dr. Fauci) and what the numbers tell me. After that, I put my faith in God and don't worry about it. Nothing is foolproof, nothing is guaranteed, and I get that. My philosophy is do the best you can with the best information available and then don't worry about it. Some of the "lets not live our lives in fear" folks are quick to tell me that "Well, you know the vaccine doesn't prevent COVID." or "My nurse friend sees vaccinated people coming in with the virus." And that's all well and good. Of course the vaccine doesn't guarantee you won't get COVID, just as wearing a seatbelt doesn't guarantee you won't die in a car wreck. There are thousands of "breakthrough" cases. But, big picture, it considerably reduces your chances of contracting COVID, even further reduces your likelihood of contracting a bad case, to the point that additional precautions really aren't meaningful or necessary. And as far as your nurse friend goes, that's what's called anecdotal evidence. There have to be enough of those cases they are seeing that it registers as a significant increase in COVID cases among the vaccinated overall, and we simply haven't seen that.
I still keep an eye on the numbers. And I always skim through the articles reporting the rise of the Delta variant and so on, looking for one specific thing: Are the vaccines still effective against the latest variant. So far the answer has been a resounding yes? And until that changes, I'll be going about my business normally.
As of today, June 15 there have been 33,442,107 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Another 520,314 new cases were added since May 15 This month's numbers represent an average of a 1.6 % increase in the number of new cases over the past two months, and about 1,126,000 fewer than I predicted. There have been 599,486 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 14,761 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 2.5% monthly increase. It is also 8,628 fewer deaths than I predicted. Compared to where we were a year ago, the rate of increase in cases has decreased by half. And though the rate of increase in deaths is slightly higher than it was in June of 2020, it's still down overall from what it was a few months ago. I expect to see the number of cases and deaths flatline or possibly bump up a little bit in the next month as the unvaccinated folks in this country start to fall under scythe of the Delta variant.
If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I would expect 33,977,181 total cases by July 15 and 614,473 deaths.
The rate of increase in cases continued to decline in all benchmark states over the past month: I had hoped for increases below 5% this month and my hopes were fulfilled, with Hawaii having the highest rate of increase at 5% and everyone else below that. Nebraska and Florida even notched increases of less than one percent! Fantastic! It's worth noting, however, that Florida has some weird things going on with their case reporting as indicated in the New York Times database. When I last compared the states week to week numbers, the total number of cases in Florida, decreased, which is of course impossible. I just recorded it as zero new cases for the week (you'll see that indicated in the graph below) rather than the mathematical negative number of new cases. I'm not sure what's happening in Florida. While I'm sure the state's cases have declined significantly, I don't think the decrease as is as steep as it appears.
Hawaii is another special case. Unlike most of the rest of the country it has not followed an overall "bell curve" type trajectory for the virus. Case counts and deaths have always been low in Hawaii and they have tended to bounce up and down over the course of the pandemic. You can see this pattern better here than you can on the graph below.
And oh to be a Cornhusker! It looks like the virus is all but gone in Nebraska (though the state's deaths were a little higher than expected).
Total Cases:
Florida: 2,300,786 total cases, 14,491 of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 0.6%. This is 145,443 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Florida will reach 2,314,591total cases by July 15, 2021
Ohio: 1,107,225 total cases, with 17,868 new cases being added over the past month.. The rate of increase dropped to 1.6%. This is 32,242 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,124,941 total cases by July 15, 2021.
Nebraska: 223,847 total cases, of which 1,512 are new cases, an increase of 0.7%. This is only 6,936 fewer cases than I predicted: Prediction: 225,414 total cases by July 15, 2021.
Hawaii: 35,769 total cases, an average of 1,803 new cases each month, an increase of 5%. This is an average of 1,253 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 37,557 total cases by July 15, 2021
Illinois: 1,391,785 total cases, 24,354 new cases, an increase of 1.8%. This is 57,691 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 1,416,837 total cases by July 15, 2021
Deaths have continued to drop over the past month. Nebraska and Illinois ended up posting more deaths than I expected, but overall the picture remains encouraging. The big question over the next month will be: What will the Delta variant do to our unvaccinated population?
Total Deaths
Florida: 37,265 total deaths, of which 1,266 are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3.5%. This is 533 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 38,569 total deaths by July15, 2021.
Ohio: 20,091 total deaths, of which 563 are new deaths, an increase of 2.9%. This is 22 deaths fewer than I predicted and at this rate we still will not have reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,673 deaths by July 15, 2021. This is incredibly good news! It's nice to see deaths no longer arriving by the thousands every month. Our next goal is to see those deaths drop into the tens!
Nebraska: 2,517 total deaths. This includes 139 new deaths, an increase of 5.8%. This is an average of 68 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,663 total deaths by July 15, 2021.
Hawaii: 503 total deaths, including 16 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3.2%. This is 3 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 519 total deaths by July 15, 2021.
Illinois: 25,490 total deaths, 765 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This 24 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 26,255 total deaths by July 15, 2021.
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