The Corona Chronicles: Not Just a Number

The world may look the same is it did a month ago but when someone you love is gone, it is completely different.

For me November has been the 2020 of the months of this year. It's been awful. There's not much else to say than that. But not just for me, personally.  Thousands of families are bereft, struggling to keep going in the face of devastating loss. Thousand suffer sleepless nights and numb days. Whether because of cancer, heart disease, chronic illnesses or sudden collapse, COVID-19, tragic accidents, overdoses, suicides, or foul play thousands of people have been lost in this month. And one of those thousands was one of my dearest friends. All it takes is one for the awful gravity of death to be fully felt.

Birth and death. The beginning and the end. We all came into the world the same way and we will all leave at some point. Yet, for both when they happen it feels like this is the only birth or death there's ever been in the world. It feels so unique, so separate, and in the case of death, so lonely. The rest of the world marches on as if nothing has happened. We hear about the deaths of people we don't know well, we read the numbers that appear just below in this blog, and we feel, at most, a twinge of sadness. We shake our heads and think, "What a shame." But when death circles close it's something else entirely. And the closer it gets the worse it is. It is a ravenous beast that hollows us out. How can something so horrible be so mundane?

I think we should be less caviler about death when it doesn't affect us. Some people like to dismiss the number of COVID deaths or explain them away (the old canard about "inflated death counts" is still making the rounds, theories stoked by isolated incidents such as the man in Florida who died in a motorcycle accident but was listed as a COVID death).  Yes, death comes for us all, and yes, sometimes a hard-nosed calculus is needed in order to ensure that those who survive can still...well, live. But that calculus should not be made flippantly. It should be a solemn exercise with a compassionate understanding of the tremendous individual cost for the greater good.  But for some, there's a somewhat childish view of what a truly terrible death toll should look like. If it's not a cataclysm, an apocalyptic nightmare with the mortality rate of the general population in the double digits and bodies piling up in the streets, then it's nothing to be concerned about.  People imply that many of those who died of COVID "would have died anyway." Which to me, is a heartless thing to say. Ask anyone who has lost someone they love, and most would gladly welcome more time with their loved one, even if only a little. When it comes to time with the people we care for there's no such thing as "enough."  

It seems clear that deaths are higher than average this year, a sign that no matter which way you slice it, COVID has had a brutal impact on the hearts and homes of too many. This article articulates why the argument that the overall death rate has not increased is incorrect.  And, while there's lot of context missing, I can't help but wonder if these numbers, gleaned from the CDC  aren't higher than usual: In April of this year, 86,000 more people died of all causes than did in April 2019. In May, 42,000 more people died than in May 2019, and in June, 24,000 more people died than did in June 2019.  Also more people died in the months of January, March, April, and May of 2020 than any month in 2019. The CDC doesn't have data past June 2020, but the picture seems unlikely to have improved.

No matter how you look at it, there were 55,801 people were alive at the start of this month. And, now because of COVID, every one of them is gone. That's a lot of empty chairs and broken hearts.

I long for the day when death will lose it's power once and for all. And in the mean time I'm determined not to allow myself to become too numb to the lives lost behind those numbers.

As of today there have been 16,477,271 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. A staggering 5,658,660 new cases were added since November 14. Among them there are a number of people I know personally, including my best friend and his wife, a former student, and a good friend living here in Columbus. This is a 52% increase, not quite double the number of new cases from October to November, and about 1.3 million more than I predicted.  There have 300,051 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 55,801 of those occuring in the past month. This is a 23% increase, 25, 427 more deaths than from COVID than we had the previous month, and 21,606 more deaths than I predicted.

If this rate of increase stops growing exponentially and instead maintain its current pace, I  would expect 25,045,451 total cases by  January 14 and a total of 369,063 dead from the virus. 

On to the states: It's Ohio's turn to take center stage in case numbers.  Illinois and Nebraska are finally trending downward, and Florida and Ohio are trending up. But the Buckeye state currently leads our group in new and total cases. Hawaii continues to be not just a tropical paradise, but a largely disease free one as well with average weekly new cases remaining essentially flat with about 629 new cases each week.

Total Cases:

Florida: 1,125,923 total cases, 255,379 new cases, an increase of 29%. This is almost 90,000 more cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 1,452,441 total cases by January 14, 2021.

Ohio: 570,602 total cases, 288,074 new cases, an increase of 102%. This is just over 90,000 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio joins the Million Case Club with 1,152,616 total cases by January 14, 2021.

Nebraska: 149,044 total cases, 54,122 new cases, an increase of 36%. This is 29,409 fewer cases than I predicted: Prediction: 202,699 total cases by January 14, 2021. 

Hawaii: 19,302 total cases, 2,788 new cases, an increase of 17%. This is 679 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 22,583 total cases by January 14, 2021

Illinois: 857,431 total cases, 304,348 new cases, an increase of  55%. This is 99,403 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Illinois also joins the Million Case Club with 1,329,018 total cases by January 14, 2021

Deaths in all five states increased this past month.  Yes even in Hawaii, deaths were up this month, though again the numbers were miniscule, with an average of 11.5 deaths over the past four weeks.

Total Deaths

Florida: 19,865 total deaths, 2,421 new deaths, an increase of 14%. This is just shy of 200 fewer deaths than I forecast, but statistically close enough to say my prediction was correct. Prediction: 22,646 total deaths by January 14, 2021.

Ohio: 7,551 total deaths, 1,851 new deaths, an increase of 32%. This is over 1000 deaths more than I predicted. Prediction: 9,967 deaths by January 14, 2021.

Nebraska: 1,389 total deaths, 600 new deaths, an increase of 76%. This is 198 more deaths than I predicted. This is the fourth month in a row that Nebraska's death toll has exceeded my forecast. Prediction: 2,445 total deaths by January 14, 2021. 

Hawaii: 272 total deaths, 51 new deaths, an increase of 23%. This is about 24 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 335 total deaths by January 14, 2021.

Illinois: 15,455 total deaths, 4,548 new deaths, an increase of 42%. This 2,585 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 21,946 total deaths by  January 14, 2021.

My prediction that deaths in all states except Hawaii would outstrip my predictions was foiled by Florida. But I'm totally okaying with there being less death. My hopeful prediction is that there will be fewer deaths in all states by January than I predicted. I don't know if I have a reason for that--I don't think the vaccine will have had enough time to make a difference. I guess I just want to believe it.