Dispatch from Coronaville: Cruel Summer

Well the cruelest of summers is drawing to a close.  Cruelty varied ranging from the blessing of merely being stuck at home-vacations cancelled, to struggling with job loss and looming homelessness as unemployment and eviction moratoriums expired.  And then there were the millions across the country sickened, and thousands holding on for dear life in ICU's and those who could not hold on any longer. 

At the same time, for many who chose to take their chances and found the gamble paid off, the summer was not cruel at all. For these lucky folks vacations and family gatherings continued apace (at least within the United States; it's not so easy to travel internationally these days) marked by cheap flights, light crowds at tourist attractions, and lots of room on the freeway.

We've still got another month or two of hot weather, but with the schools opening (or not), for students and teachers fall (and perhaps the fall) is about to arrive.  What will it hold? It's time to look back at the past month to see how my predictions held up and look forward to the month ahead, making new prognostications for these uncertain times. Interestingly by the time I revisit my month to month predictions on the fifth of September, the Dispatch from Coronaville will have issued it's last entry two days earlier. The month in review will come under a new title, one that will be visited at minimum on the fifth (or thereabouts) of each month.

I'm a day early, but the reality has already exceeded my predictions so I'm going ahead anyway since today is my D-Day (Dispatch Day). I forecast 4.4 million total cases of COVID-19 by tomorrow August 5.  But as of today we've already surpassed that number by more than 300 thousand cases with a total of 4,772,487, a 64% increase. Likewise I predicted 154,568 deaths by tomorrow. In fact we passed that number three days ago and today the total number of U.S. deaths attributed to the virus stands at 157,119, a 21% increase.  I believe the schools will tell the story of the next month. By September 5, my school will be three days away from beginning instruction and Barbara's school will have been in session for two weeks already. I expect by then we'll have a good idea of what safe instruction should look like in this country with many other schools across the nation having been open for close to a month by that time. While it does appear that we might be coming to the end of this latest surge, I'm going to predict at minimum a continuation of a  high number of new cases, due in large part to bungled school openings. Therefore I predict 7,826,879 total cases in the U.S. by September 5, 2020.  I also project 190,114 total deaths by this date.

As for the past three days, the news is quite good. We've only added 145,445 new cases in the past three days.  That's the lowest number we've had since at least mid-July. Likewise with 2,254 new deaths, we have the lowest number since July 20.  Hopefully that pattern persists. Again school will tell the story, I believe. I predict that we'll have 4,920,434 total cases by Friday, August 7 and 159,865 total deaths.

More good news on the three-day report. New cases in Florida have dropped to their lowest point since June 23, with a mere 17,302 new cases in the past three days. Likewise Ohio reports it lowest three-day total of new cases since July 11 and Nebraska it's lowest since July 20. I would really like to see this trend continue.

Total Cases:

Florida: 497,322 total cases, 2.2% of the population. Florida more than doubled it's total cases in the past month--a 149% increase, but even so the rate of increase did slow enough that I missed my projection by more than 150,000 cases. Based on this rate (which may not slow by much if schools prove to be epicenters), I would predict over a million total cases in Florida by September 5--1,238,332 total cases to be exact.

Ohio: 95,106 total cases, 0.81% of the population. Ohio exceeded my prediction by 9,000 cases this month, reflecting a about a 40% increase. I predict a total of 133,148 total cases by September 5, over 1% of the population..

Nebraska: 27,027 total cases, 1.4% of the population. Nebraska also ended up with more cases than I predicted--about a thousand more, an increase of 36%.  I expect 36,757 total cases by September 5.

I'm glad to report that deaths are down across the board as well. Florida appears to be still in the midst of a death surge. The drop back into the charts with 380 deaths is not low enough to register the beginning of a decline. I predict Florida is back off the charts by Friday.  Ohio on the other hand defied my predictions and did not surge back up past 115 deaths in the past three days, instead dropping still further to 55 deaths this time around. This gives me hope that the surge of deaths here will be lower than I had feared. Nebraska meanwhile returns to territory it hasn't seen since the end of March. Just one person died from coronavirus in the state over the the past three days.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 7,401, a rate of 1.5%. Florida logged over 2000 more deaths than I predicted last month, an increase of 98%. Based on that grim percentage, I'd expect 14,653 total deaths in the state by September 5.

Ohio: 3,570, a rate of 3.8%. Ohio actually had fewer deaths than I predicted, but only by about 30. Statistically, I'd say I was correct with an increase of 23%. I predict 4,391 total deaths by September 5.

Nebraska: 339, a rate of 1.3%.  I missed the mark with Nebraska by about 100 deaths, which for this state is quite significant. There was only a 19% increase in deaths in Nebraska over the past month.  With that in mind, I project 403 deaths in the state by September 5, a number that will still be lower than what I'd predicted for this month. Folks in Nebraska seem to be stayin' alive and I'm glad of that.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Need

 The highlights for today were a nice church service with the family and a wonderful Sabbath afternoon nap. There's nothing like slowly waking from a luxurious nap, that moment when everything is just perfectly right with the world.  And then you wake up.

Summer's end has arrived for us. Officially Barbara and I return to work on Monday, my birthday. (No teaching as yet, school starts for me on September 8). I'm not ready. There's still so much that I never got to this summer, not the least of which is a few days of complete rest.

I think these days we all are acting out of need. Need to feel safe. Need to be with people we love. Need to keep food on the table. We tend to judge others for the way they act to meet those needs. We say that people don't care if others die. We say that people are living in fear. We accuse some of selfishness, others of panicking. We tend to feel public policy should align with our needs, whatever they may be. I think most people are doing the best they can with what they believe to be true, even if what they are doing isn't the best and what they believe isn't true.

Right now the United States has recorded 4,627,042 total cases of COVID-19. This includes 193,666 new cases since Wednesday. This is about 19,000 fewer cases than I predicted, thought it is an increase in new cases from three days ago--just not as much of one as I forecast. We have had a total of 154,865 deaths, of which 3,767 occured in the past three days.  This is also less than I predicted by about 1,200 and about a thousand fewer deaths than occured in the last three day period but more about 1200 more than occurred the period before that. Based on these rates of increase, I would expect 4,830,631 total cases by Tuesday, August 4, and 158,737 deaths.

Florida's numbers did bounce back up, but only by a thousand or so, to 28,605 new cases in the past three days, not the low the 30's I'd expected, so I guess that's good news. Ohio on the other hand has shown the largest increase three-day increase in new cases in quite awhile though not approaching it's peak earlier in July. It's really hard to tell exactly what's happening with Ohio or Nebraska. We still need another few cycles to know for sure.

Total Cases: 

Florida: 480,020 total cases, 2.2% of the population

Ohio: 92,087 total cases, 0.79% of the population

Nebraska: 26,391 total cases, 1.4% of the population

Florida has now exited the death chart as well, logging a tragic 689 deaths in the past three days, which goes beyond the range of my chart. Praying we'll see those numbers fall. Ohio's deaths dropped, but it's worth noting that the current number of  93 is still the second highest number of deaths in a three day we've seen Ohio this summer.  The pattern so far is consistent with an increase in COVID deaths in the Buckeye state.  What I would expect to see is more than 115 new deaths by Tuesday, August 4.  Nebraska continues to trundle along. No meaningful change there.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 7,021, a rate of 1.5%

Ohio: 3,515,  a rate of 3.8%

Nebraska: 338, a rate of of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Unraveling the Truth

Ok.. . so I know I've talked about this before, but I'm going to revisit this issue again dealing with the latest bombshell to hit the internet, the press conference that has taken Facebook by storm--the Frontline Doctors of America. This organization has actually gained legitimacy in the eyes of many as the various social media platforms have removed their videos. These days if you want to know if something is true, just wait for the Man to try squelch it.  Then you'll know.  I almost feel it's better to let these things be. Folks are going to believe what they see and they'll believe it even more if you take it away.

So a phalanx of white-coated doctors appear on the steps of the Supreme Court announcing that they have The Answer to Coronavirus. What are we to make of this? Is it really smart or fair to just dismiss them out of hand? Should we not give them a fair hearing?

Here's why I haven't bothered:

• Red Flag: The name alone is problematic. That's a marketing name, designed to elicit an emotional response. "Frontline" is currently an emotionally resonant word that brings to mind those medical professionals risking their lives in this pandemic. And the "of America" implies that this is a national medical association. It might even suggest that most "frontline doctors" are members of this group. This is not true. The name is misleading. But that's only a minor concern. Perhaps of greater concern is that this organization only formed a few weeks ago.

• Red Flag: These guys are peddling what everyone wants. No one--not Dr. Fauci, the WHO, not the CDC--no one wants lockdowns and masks and social distancing.  Nobody personally benefits from insisting on these restrictions.  Any super-secret benefits that these powerful entities might gain are vastly outweighed by the huge losses that everyone is suffering economically and otherwise. "Follow the money" on this one and you'll follow it right down the drain.  There is no upside to a pandemic, for anyone. Not big business which is hurt by a damaged economy, not big government which is hamstrung by a reduced revnue as well, not hospitals which are losing money from being unable to do "non-essential" work, not "Big Pharma" who at present has no patented miracle drug of their own to offer.  There isn't a politician or corporate titan anywhere that's going to allow themselves to get hammered like this just to say, "get Trump out of office."  So the question you have to ask isn't "Why are the mainstream scientists calling for all these restrictions which  no one wants?" (the only logical answer is because, based on our current evidence, it's necessary and effective).  The question we should be asking is "Why is this group giving such an amazing message?" Masks aren't necessary. Social distancing isn't necessary.  School closures aren't necessary  Doesn't that sound wonderful?  You know what they say, if it sounds too good to be true. . .  So let's eliminate this idea that someone wants to "cover up" a simple and effective solution to the coronavirus. It's patently absurd.

• Red Flag: Real scientific findings are built on a preponderance of evidence, replicated by many others.  Doing something in your own practice and feeling it "works" does not equate to scientific findings.  Just because people are doctors doesn't mean that they automatically have sound science backing new treatments unless those treatments have been verified in a systematic and controlled way.

• Red Flag: Real scientific findings aren't announced in dramatic, emotional videos.

• Red Flag: Who are these people?  Do they have a political agenda? It would appear so.  Not a secret one that has to be dug up by intrepid internet sleuths, but an obvious one that can be easily identified? This group seems to be a hodgepodge of doctors in a various medical specialties, some practicing, some not. What unites them is not their shared expertise in a particular area, but their shared point of view.  And their connection  with the Tea Party Patriots Action organization should be huge red flag. Not because it's a conservative organization but simply because it's a political one. It's like if Occupy Democrats was sponsoring a press conference by the CDC.

• Red Flag: What's the takeaway of this message? Stop worrying, don't be afraid. Just go live your life because we have the miracle cure if you get the virus. Has that ever been the responsible messaging of any legitimate medical advance?  Are we supposed to take this as preventative? Just go down to the doctor and ask for a prescription? (If I was conspiracy minded I'd probably write this whole blog about whose really behind promoting hydroxychloroquine, if  not the Big Pharma companies that manufacture it. What they lose with those low profit margins they'd make up in billions of doses worth of volume. But I don't even believe that.)  Does it guarantee we won't get COVID or guarantee that we'll be healed from it when we do get it?  Is there enough available to administer to everyone? (That's a question that we're already dealing with with a potential legitimate vaccine).

If it's somewhat boring--and not an easily shareable video, if it isn't too good to be true, if it is backed by research and not anecdotal evidence, if it's not being peddled by a political organization, if the takeaway is sensible and doesn't play to my wishes and emotions, well then I'll take a look. Otherwise, I will keep on scrolling.

 Most of the time the truth is not "out there." It's right there in your face.

Here are the numbers. As of today, the total U.S. case count is 4,433,376. Of these cases, 189,733 were added in the past three days.  That's around 14,000 fewer than I predicted. This is the second three day period in which we've seen a decrease in case. It's only 5,000 fewer new cases than we recorded on July 26, but I'll take it. We just want to see that trend continue.  Unfortunately our death count spiked up over the past three days. We've lost 151,098 people as of today, and 4,844 of them died in the past three days. That's almost 2000 more than I predicted. Based on the rates of increase represented by these numbers I project 4,646,178 total cases by Saturday, August 1 and 156,084 deaths. At the rate we're going we should hit 5 million cases on or around August 6, in about two weeks.

Nothing much new to report. Florida dips down to 27,568 new cases, but if the pattern holds the state will be back in the 30s by Saturday. Ohio continues to inch down, Nebraska continues to inch up.

Total Cases:

Florida: 451,415 total cases, 2.1% of the population

Ohio: 87,893 total cases, 0.75% of the population

Nebraska: 25,547 total cases, 1.3% of the population

My prediction was spot-on. Florida set a new record for COVID deaths in a 3-day period with 479 deaths since Sunday. The surge of lost lives is not over in Florida, sadly.  On the other hand I think I was completely wrong about Ohio. We have not dodged the worst; the worst is about to come upon us. I counted about thirty days from the initial spike cases to the beginning of the spike in deaths in Florida.  Following that pattern, we are now reaching thirty days since Ohio's case surge began. That means that over the next few weeks we should see a significant increase in deaths in Ohio. Nebraska showed an uptick in deaths but it's too soon to say if this anything other than usual up-and-down pattern we see with deaths on my graph.

Total Deaths

Florida: 6,332 deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Ohio: 3,422 deaths, a rate of 3.9%

Nebraska: 331 deaths, a rate of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Live It Well

Yesterday we finally had the graduation ceremony for my 8th grade class. We had delayed in what turned out to be the vain hope that the pandemic would have receded by this time and they could have a traditional in person graduation.  Well, we ended up having a shorter in person graduation ceremony though it was anything but traditional, as well as a virtual "Zoom Reception." It was beautiful, unique, and heartfelt just like this class. The day was clear and free of rain (though hot, and we did have one graduate who was overcome by the heat and ended up missing most of the ceremony. Thankfully she recovered by the end of the program after hydrating, resting, and cooling off inside.) For today's post, I've shared the text of the commencement address delivered by yours truly. I'm so honored that my students picked me to be their speaker.  After the speech and pics, will be the usual coronavirus update. This is what I had to say:

My heart is full this afternoon. I had the hardest time thinking of what to say. And it’s because there is so much I want to say that I didn’t know where to start. I love you all so much. I am so incredibly proud of each of you. I feel so blessed to have  had the privilege of being your teacher for the past four years. But don’t worry, it’s hot and so I will keep this short, but I hope sweet. 

Why did this happen to us? I don’t have an answer for you. I don’t think there is one. Some of have said that this happened to you because your class was uniquely equipped to handle it. But I don’t think God orchestrated all of this to line up with your 8th grade year just because you could handle it. I believe that life happens.  Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad. Sometimes its truly horrible. Sometimes its amazing. What I’m grateful for, is not that this happened to you but that you were able, by the grace of God, to bear it.

Normally, during these kinds of speeches the speaker tries to give you some advice, some words of wisdom as you begin the next chapter in your lives. But today, I don’t have any advice for you other than this: Keep doing what you are doing. You as a class and as an individuals have inspired me and touched me in so many ways. You--all of you--are my heroes, my inspirations. You have helped me this year to be a better person and I thank you.  So my only advice to you is to keep doing what you are doing. I want to draw your attention to five things in particular that you have done well, and that I want to encourage you to keep doing.

Your class has set high goals and accomplished them. You did things no other class has done, set higher goals and reached them. You raised more money than any class ever has--over $10,000 and counting for your Hawaii trip which we still have yet to take. You committed to turning your behavior around and accomplished that. You understood that with God all things are possible. Keep doing that. Keep striving, keep believing, keep grinding, keep getting it done. I want to highlight three students, though there are many others among you who exemplify this commitment to excellence. Philip--you set a goal and were unrelenting in your focus to achieve that goal and you did it. Keep that work ethic. Piya keep your commitment to excellence, putting quality into everything you do. And Bernard--keep growing, keep wanting to be better. That desire to improve, if you let it, can translate in to the realization of your dreams.

Your class has shown a commitment to growth and change. Keep growing, keep changing, keep learning, keep listening. Djibril keep learning to take personal responsibility, Stephen your growth in your short time at CAA has amazed me, keep expressing yourself beautifully,  Larrysa your inner soulfulness, appreciation and kindness has touched my heart. Keep that spirit, Larrysa.  Soulemane keep your commitment to growth and maturity, and the respectful way in which you have interacted with me, keep that as you go forward. Moise, you remind me of Peter, loud and brash, getting himself in trouble, yet growing powerful and deep as you let Jesus transform you. Keep being the academic powerhouse you are becoming, keep that focus on excellence. Nasha keep being so reliable and responsible. I really enjoyed working with you in the sound booth and I’m not sure what we’ll do without you. Keep being that person people know they can count on.  Dayshaun, keep listening and learning. You have a brilliant mind, keep applying it to live up to the dreams God has for you. Robert  keep getting back up again, you’ll find it easier each time. I appreciate your humble spirit.  Ronald, you’ve run 6.1 miles, so you know what it is to run. Keep running, digging deep when the going gets hard.

Your class really stands out because you have learned the art of appreciating the moment you are in. Every 8th grade class I’ve had can’t wait to get out of here, and it’s only after they leave that they come to appreciate this place. Your class loved this school and the experience of being here like few I’ve ever seen. And you are better for it. You appreciate the moment God has given you. Keep doing that. Two students come to mind that exemplify this. Alyssa, our class president. Alyssa keep your quiet, charismatic leadership, your patience, and the love you so clearly have for your classmates. Kevin, your deep appreciation for your classmates and your love for them, and not just them but for your teachers as well is truly beautiful. Keep that spirit, Kevin.

Your class treats each other as family. You are forgiving, patient. There is a significant absence of drama--which wasn’t always the case--that is very unusual for this age. You’ve had relationships begin and end, you’ve had heated basketball arguments, you’ve had people who seem to specialize in pulling people’s chains, yet none of this seems to have broken your class apart. You moved past that. What a gift to have and share with the world. Keep doing that. Here I want to acknowledge some of our joy-bringers, our messengers of good cheer and grace.  Georgia, keep your cheerful and patient spirit. Jasen keep your sense of humor, your mind sharp and insightful.  Daysha,keep your kind spirit and your willingness to offer a hug (when the pandemic is over of course). Athena -your kindness, especially to my children, your support for the marginalized, your tender heart are so beautiful. Not everyone will see you, but I want you to know that I do, and I always will. Tiffany-Keep reading, keep thinking, keep that open mind, sense of humor, and gentle spirit.

Your class, perhaps more than any class I’ve ever taught, pray and praise easily. You are spiritually minded. Keep doing that. Yasmin, what a joy it’s been to see you grow, going all the way back to latchkey until today. Keep trusting in God, keep praying. Hadson, you have been a spiritual leader this year. Keep that spiritual focus, keeping trusting that God will provide whatever you need. Look how far he has taken you. Chelsea, keep paying attention to what’s going on in the world. During our Hangout chats I could always count on you to point out to the class things happening in the news that affect us all. Keep your eyes open and keep calling others to do the same. Greer keep leading people in praise of God, even if it’s just you at first, others will join.

It would be nice to say that your life is going to be wonderful and that everything is going to turn out great. But I can’t promise that. You will experience great joy and incredible success. But you will also experience heartbreaking grief and devastating failure. I want to encourage you to be like Job in those moments, to keep doing what you have always done: Blessing the name of the Lord and loving others. The Lord gives and the Lord takes away, blessed be the name of the Lord.

There’s a song I love called “Live It Well.”  This is what part of the lyrics say: 

 I got one life and one love

I got one voice, but maybe that's enough

Cause with one heartbeat and two hands to give

I got one shot and one life to live

One life to live, yeah

And every breath you take is a miracle

Life is short; I wanna live it well

One life, one story to tell (one love)

Life is short; I wanna live it well

And you're the one I'm living for (the one, yeah)

Awaken all my soul

Every breath that you take is a miracle

Life is short; I wanna live it well

                                            (--Switchfoot, "Live It Well")

Life is short. Live it well. Live it for Jesus. Live it for others. And no matter what, keep doing what you’re doing. Keep striving, keep growing, keep appreciating, keep loving, and keep trusting God. He will see you through. I love you all so much. Congratulations and thank you.

And now for the Dispatch. . .

In 2006 I went to my first U2 concert in Tokyo, Japan. I've been to ten since (ten! I know, I'm a big fan), but that first one is still probably my favorite. The couple days of sightseeing and the incredible performance were all indelible. After the show I had a tough decision to make. I had just enough money to get my train ticket back to the airport in Narita to catch my flight home to Saipan. But I also wanted to buy a souvenir of my concert and they only accepted cash. I had found it very difficult to use my credit card while in Japan because few place accepted credit. If I bought a souvenir I couldn't be sure I'd be able to get back to Narita, if I couldn't purchase my ticket with a credit card. If I couldn't get back to Narita I would miss my flight and would be stranded in Japan with no money, knowing no one and with no place to stay. I'd be on the streets.

I decided to buy the souvenir.

I remember thinking, this is one of those things that if it works out, I'll be glad I did it and if it doesn't work out it will be the worst decision of my life.

As you've probably guessed, it worked out. I was able to purchase my train ticket with the credit card and I went home with happy memories and a nice souvenir (My only regret is that I got the wrong souvenir. I should have bought the t-shirt instead of the DVD, which I've watched once and could have bought easily on Amazon or E-bay. I can't believe I took a risk like that for a DVD. The t-shirt would have been worth it, because I love my concert t-shirts and now buy one at every concert I go to. Life Lesson: Buy the t-shirt, not the DVD).

Either something I'm glad I did, or the worst decision of my life, depending on the outcome. That's kind of how I feel about this graduation. In one sense, I"m so glad we had it. It was such a beautiful day and I'm so glad I could give this gift to my students who I love so much and who have lost so much of their final year at CAA to this pandemic. I just don't want them to lose anymore. And yesterday was probably the biggest risk I've taken since the coronavirus struck, with the kids not being near as careful with the mask wearing and social distancing as I would have liked. Right now, I'm just hoping the credit card works.

Total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as of yesterday (recorded the data last night after graduation but too exhausted to post) were 4,243,643, with a 194,906 new cases in the past three days, about 20,000 fewer than I predicted. We are down in new cases from the previous three day period but I think it may be a little too soon to declare the peak has passed. It may be that the peak was on July 17 when we had over 223,000 new cases in three days but we'll need a few more rounds to confirm a pattern of decrease. In my weariness last night I forget to record the national death count, so the total deaths are from today: 146,754 total deaths, of which 2,505 are new over the past four days (I'm not sure how many deaths were reported in past 12 hours or so). This also represents a decrease in the number of new deaths in a three day period, and is 1000 fewer than I predicted. Based on a continuation of this pattern, I would expect 4,447,338 total cases by Wednesday, July 29 and 149,249 total deaths.

Florida, oh, Florida when will you ever return to join us down in the visible panels of my graphs? The pattern of new cases for the state has been (in thousands), 37 on July 14, 35 on July 17, 33 on July 20, 29 on July 23 and now back up to 33,987 new cases as of yesterday, July 26. As always, it takes several cycles for the pattern to reveal itself, and my graphs tell the story best in hindsight. Ohio, on the other hand does appear to have peaked back on July 14. We may be on the downhill side now. Meanwhile, Cornhuskers beware: Nebraska shows signs of a gradual increase.

Total Cases

Florida: 423,847 total cases, 1.9% of the population. It's quite remarkable to me that Florida accounts for about 10% of the U.S. total case count and has had more COVID cases than most countries in the world. Dark times for the Sunshine State indeed.

Ohio: 84,073 total cases, 0.72% of the population.

Nebraska: 24,618 total cases, 1.3% of the population

While deaths are down during this three-day period in Florida, I think they are still in the midst of a significant spike in deaths. I would expect to see a new record in new deaths established by Wednesday there. Ohio seems to be stabilizing in terms of new deaths and at least so far it doesn't look like we'll return to the heights of the spring. The deaths really tell the story of a very different reality in Florida and Ohio in terms of what's happening with the virus. While Florida's new death peak is definitely in the summer, Ohio's appears to be firmly in the past. Nebraska needs to stay alert. If anything there appears to be gradual increase in the deaths over the past few weeks. While the state has yet to reach it's spring peak, it does seem to be moving in that direction.

Total Deaths

Florida: 5,853, a rate of 1.4%

Ohio: 3,307, a rate of 3.9%. Ohio's death rate is clearly declining as deaths remain low even as case counts increase.

Nebraska: 322, a rate of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Busy

The virus has been busy, but so have I. My 8th grade class elected to delay their graduation as long as they could in the hopes that we would be well on the downward side of the curve when it was time for them to cross the stage. Instead we find ourselves in the midst of the a second wave and our hopes of a "normal" graduation are dashed.  Instead we are having a two part ceremony this Sunday, July 26. First we'll have a short in-person, socially distanced, outdoor ceremony.  We'll follow that an hour later with a "Zoom Reception" where we'll do some of the activities like the slideshow, parent tributes, and special musics that we couldn't do in person.  We've been practicing every day this week, both via Zoom and in person and there is so much to do.  Tomorrow is going to be a full day as well as Sunday. To further add to the fray, Barbara's mom fell and broke her hip today.  She'll be going in to surgery tomorrow so we'll be leaving early in the morning tomorrow, to drop Babs off in Dayton so she can be there for surgery.

With all of that, I need to get to bed so we're gonna keep this short tonight.  Here's the deal:

The U.S. now has now had a total of 4,048,737 cases of COVID-19--surpassing the next million mark just over a week ahead of when I'd predicted. If the rate doesn't slow we should see five million cases by August 7.  This includes 205,601 new cases in the past three days, 19,000 or so more than previous three days.  We've also suffered a total of 144,249 deaths, 3,407 new ones in the past three days. This is almost double the previous batch of new deaths. That's 13,000 more cases and 1600 more deaths than I predicted. Based on these increase, I project 4,263,320 total cases by Sunday, July 26 and 147,711 total deaths.

New cases in Florida have now declined for three three-day periods (nine days) in a row. At 29,474 new cases this is the first time since July 8 that Florida has posted less than 30,000 cases in three days. Ohio has shown a slight uptick in cases but breaks no records, indicating we might have already hit our second wave peak. Nebraska has shown a jump this time around but still remains well shy of it's peak numbers in the spring.

Total Cases

Florida: 389,860 total cases, 1.8% of the population

Ohio: 80,186 total cases, 0.69% of the population

Nebraska: 23,818 total cases, 1.2% of the population

Florida set a record high for new deaths with total of 446 deaths in the past three days. Meanwhile, Ohio marked a modest decline, with the overall trajectory of deaths remaining steady and Nebraska posted another five deaths during this period.

Total Deaths

Florida: 5,517 total deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Ohio: 3,256 total deaths, a rate of 4%. Our death rate continues to fall.

Nebraska: 318 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

Total Deaths

Dispatch from Coronaville: The Basics

So today I'm just gonna get right to it. It's 11:35 PM and I have a literal mountain of laundry to fold. And tomorrow is a very busy day, starting with a morning run. Then I'm making Chipotle at Home for lunch (basically I make all the Chipotle dishes--the chicken, the grilled veggies, cilantro lime rice, the salsas, guac, etc--at home) and that takes a long time. Planning for my 8th graders graduation on Sunday, as well as meeting with them for a Zoom practice of their speeches.  Planning for next school year. School board meeting in the evening. Ugh, I'm tired just thinking about it.

As of today, we've had a total of 3,843,136 case of COVID-19. This reflects 186,116 new cases over the last three days, and a decrease of around 40,000 cases over the last three-day numbers. That's good news. We've had a total of 140,842 total deaths from the virus.  This includes 1,744 new deaths over the past three days. This is a decrease in the number of new deaths over the past three days. Also good news. I was 51,000 cases over the actual number, and about there were about 2,000 fewer deaths than I'd projected. I'm happy with those numbers.

I predict that by Thursday, July 23, we'll pass the four million mark with 4,035,2923 total cases and 142,672 total deaths.

All three states have posted a second consecutive three-day period of decline in new cases.  Florida's numbers are still the state's third highest ever, with 33,153 new cases. Ohio's new cases also are third highest recorded in the state. But a decline is a decline. I'll take it.  Could this mean that we've had the peak of our second wave? I hope so.

Total Cases

Florida: 360,386 total cases, 1.7% of the population

Ohio: 76,168 total cases, 0.65% of the population

Nebraska: 22,847 total cases, 1.2% of the population

Deaths spiked up over the last three days in Ohio, but not dramatically so. Florida posted a decrease in the number of new deaths, but it's numbers are still quite high. Nebraska remains as unchanging as cornfield stretching towards the horizon, easing back down in deaths during this period. The state will likely post a modest increase over the next three days.

Total Deaths

Florida: 5,071 deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Ohio: 3,189 deaths, a rate of 4.2%

Nebraska: 313 deaths, a rate of 1.4%

Angry: Token

"I'm just your token black."

The words wounded her deeply, coming from someone she had considered close as family. How could he say such a thing, after all they'd been through.

When a dear friend of mine shared this experience with me some time I ago, I focused on being a friend to someone who was deeply hurt. It wasn't the time for explanations. But I knew immediately I wanted to explore this idea of tokenism in this series. What does that mean? To have a "token" black friend. Or to be one?

I don't think there's any white person in the world that fills a quota on the number of friends of color they have. No one thinks, "Well, I need to have at least one, maybe two or three black friends. There's this person, my colleague at work, and. . Sean. Perfect! I'm all set."  So tokens are not consciously "chosen" to check a box off the list. (At least not in people's personal lives. When it comes to marketing, that's a whole other story).

I also don't believe that a white person is required to have a few or many black friends. Our nation is still 60% white and in many places it may not even be possible to have a multitude of differently-melinated friends. So I'm not suggesting that you're duty bound to seek out black people for your social set--doing that indeed feels a bit like. ..tokenism.

So if white people aren't trying to meet a black friend quota and they don't have a responsibility to populate their lives with black people, then what's the big deal about tokenism?  I see two issues where tokenism arises:  First, it's assuming that the black person you know (or don't know if he or she happens to appear in a Turning Point video) gives you all the information you need to know about the black experience. If you don't have a wide black circle--more than just a few black friends; if you don't spend time in what we call black spaces (such as attending a black church, living in a neighborhood with a high percentage of black people, attending a black school, working with mostly black people) you need to be especially careful about assuming you understand the experiences, challenges, issues, and needs of people of color. The small sample set you have with those few friends, associates, or colleagues is simply not large enough to give you a truly informed perspective. 

Further, having any number of black friends--but especially a few--should never serve as proof of your not being a racist. This is how those friends become tokens.  Some people treat relationships with black people like tokens at an arcade.  They are "proof " that they hope to exchange at the counter for that "Not a Racist" label on the high shelf over there. Again, I don't think this is something white people consciously think about or plan.  But there's a reason "some of my best friends are black" is a phrase well-known and generally held in derision. It's a go-to argument when the discussion takes an uncomfortable turn.

Now, if you really want to move past token experiences, and seek out diversity, that is a worthy goal. But it's important to understand that having a truly diverse social setting involves more than token representation of people of color.  If you want, or you want your child to really experience diversity go to a black school, attend a black church (or a majority of any other non-white ethnicity), or, if you dare, live in a majority non-white neighborhood (or just don't move if your neighborhood appears to be "browning"). For black people who want their child to experience diversity, you're not going to achieve that sending them to a majority white school with some Asians, blacks, and Latinos thrown into the mix for flavor.  I always wanted my children to have a diverse environment during their growing up years. I always thought we'd achieve that by living overseas for some period during their childhood, but that doesn't appear to be panning out. But our choice to send them to a predominantly black school accomplished the same goal. How is it diverse if practically everybody is black? Because the dominant culture is already white.  They get that everywhere. It's on the billboards, on the TV shows and movies, it's practically in the air.  Diverse, in this country, means non-white. If you want diversity you have to go to explicitly nonwhite spaces. 

This is not a diverse group, no matter what the Google image search tells you.

But my kid won't be comfortable if he/she is different from everyone else. Actually, your kid--especially if they are very young--will be just fine (you might actually be more concerned about your own discomfort than theirs, if we are being honest). Kids truly don't "see" race until we teach it to them. I remember my son Ezra when he was maybe three, telling me that he was afraid of the "brown man." I asked him if I was a brown man. And he said, "No, you're bwaack!" My heart sank, shocked to realize that at that tender age he already had absorbed racial categories. But then he went on to say that he was blue, his brother was red, his mom was pink, his aunt was orange and so on. It turned out the brown man was a most definitely white neighbor.

I think white people tend to overestimate the amount of hate they will experience from black people because of their color. In black spaces racial hatred isn't backed up by the assumptions of the larger society, so if a black person is going to exhibit prejudice towards a white person, they're pretty much speaking for themselves. The wider culture is not echoing their hate. And it's that echo from society that makes racism from whites so much more painful than the occasional sting of a slur or insult in and of itself (I will unpack this more in an upcoming blog post).

So you have black friends. Wonderful. Continue to cherish them. Just remember that their presence in your life doesn't earn you a prize.

Angry: Letting Go of the Lost Cause

Even before my father's father

They called us all rebels

As they burned our cornfields

And left our cities leveled

I can still feel the eyes of those blue-bellied devils

Yeah, when I'm walking round at night

Through the concrete and metal, hey, hey, hey

I was born a rebel, down in Dixie

On a Sunday mornin'

Yeah with one foot in the grave

And one foot on the pedal

I was born a rebel, born a rebel

                                 --Tom Petty, "Rebels"

Big wheels keep on turning

Carry me home to see my kin

Singing songs about the Southland

I miss Alabamy once again

And I think it's a sin, yes

--Lynyrd Skynrd, "Sweet Home Alabama"

Ah, the rebel. Gaunt, dressed in tattered gray, rifle in hand. He rallies round the tattered battle flag, and with a wild rebel yell, charges ahead in defense of home and family, ready to give his life in for a lost cause. The ultimate underdog. And who doesn't love an underdog.

As a child I was a huge Civil War buff. I know that's kind of weird, but it's true. I read every book I could find on the war. I watched The Blue and the Gray when it came on TV (little knowing that one of the stars of the mini-series, Dan Shor would one day become a good friend of mine). I knew all the generals on both sides by name, and was familiar with all the battles. I had a picture of Abraham Lincoln and a color drawing of the U.S. and Confederate battle flags that I'd made taped to my bedroom wall. I even drew my own picture book of the war highlighting all the big battles, major players, and main events of the war.  Even as an adult, I'd sometimes refer back to those early history lessons as I did in this 2008 post from our class trip to Australia where I linked a game of laser tag to the leadership lessons of General Lee and General Grant. And though I knew who the good guys were--well, I wouldn't have even gone that far then. There were "good people on both sides" after all. Even though I knew which was the the right side.  The side that for my sake--a black kid growing up in Central Florida--needed to win, I still found myself drawn to the underdog rebel.

It's only now that I realize how much of my understanding of that conflict was filtered through Lost Cause ideology (there are all whole books written about the Lost Cause, a lens through which many historians, especially Southern apologists viewed the conflict. This Wikipedia article is a good introduction). At the very least I understood that the South and the North interpreted the war differently (For example, the South, I learned, always referred to it as "The War Between the States." The Civil War was a Yankee term). And to a large degree I bought into the mythology of the Southern cause. I mean I understood that slavery was not a moral good. I didn't buy the BS that the South didn't really go to war over slavery. But I was drawn to the romantic notion  of the noble Southern soldier in gray, valiantly fighting for a doomed cause. I accepted the idea of Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson as noble men dutifully defending their home state in an admittedly less than noble cause.  I didn't find the history leading up to the war as interesting, nor did I bother much with the Reconstruction period. I did find it easy to accept without too much thought the idea of the abolitionists, especially those like John Brown as "extreme", and Reconstruction as a "bad" time for the South.

There was considerable cognitive dissonance between this romanticized view of the South of Civil War history, and the feelings I had about Confederate relics in the present. Some of my very good friends growing up came from proud Southern families. They had the Confederate battle flag hanging in their homes, on their license plates.  For them Confederate pride and fierce pride in being sons and daughters of the South were one and the same.  And yet a stranger with that flag on their pick-up or jean jacket made me instantly nervous. I knew deep down what that flag meant for me as a black person. I knew that accompanying it was the distinct possibility of physical violence and possibly death. Granted good people I knew carried that flag, but it was also always, always used as symbol by those with deadly hate in their hearts--the Klan, and others like minded. There was no escaping it.

There is no escaping it. The Lost Cause, the myth of the noble South is a lie. It just is. The cause was an evil one, plain and simple. The war was about states rights (to preserve slavery if they chose). It was fought to preserve the Southern way of life (And what "way" of life was that exactly? It was a way of life of which slavery was an integral part, even if it was aspirational for many poorer Southerners). The decision to secede from the Union was viewed by the North (correctly) as an act of treason. It's true that most Northerners didn't fight specifically to end slavery but to put down an insurrection. But the fact remains that without slavery there would have been no war, no cause to fight for.

 And the worst part of the Lost Cause lie is that it has made it difficult to have Southern pride without also having Confederate pride. And yet it's not impossible. How do I know this? Because the South, doesn't belong to just white people. There are generations of Southern African Americans who are proud of their Southern heritage, who love the food, the music, the customs, the culture of the South--not least because they had a significant hand in creating it. For them, the South is home, family, warmth (literal warmth too!). There is affection for the South, despite the strange fruit its trees have often borne. And for these Southerners there is no confusion between the South and the Confederacy.  If there is a path forward for the white South it is to be found among Southerners of color. Southern identity does not need to be associated with the Confederacy any more than German identity needs to be tied to Nazism. Is the analogy too harsh? An exaggeration maybe? If so, only by a little.  One regime sought to keep a group of people enslaved, the other sought to wipe a group of people from the face of earth. I suppose the argument could be made the latter is worse than the former, but not by much. It's a bit like arguing that torture is better than murder. They are both evil. 

Is it possible that good men fought for an evil cause? Absolutely. Perhaps out ignorance, perhaps out of a sense of duty, but yes it was possible. (And what is a "good man" anyway? What is the Christian understanding of so-called "good men." But that's a topic for another time.) But the movers and shapers of the Confederate South can't beg off on these excuses. They knew what they were fighting for and understood what benefits they would personally lose out on if they were not successful. They cannot be excused. Not even old "Marse Lee". Perhaps, especially not him (a better model might be Gen. James Longstreet, who actually joined the Republican party after the war and supported Reconstruction. This made him an absolute pariah to the unrepentant South. Granted his motives were mainly pragmatic, and it seemed his intent was to "manage" the black vote the way it is said the Democratic party does today, but still. This American Heritage article does a deep dive into Longstreet's story. I recommend page 3 & 4 which discuss his postwar activities that made him so hated throughout the South).

 So the statues and monuments need to come down. We erect statues to those we revere and honor. They don't teach history, they uphold values. And the statues of Confederate leaders uphold corrupt values.  The flags need to come down. Let the Klan and the NeoNazis have their complete and rightful ownership of that symbol, so that a proud black Southerner doesn't have to look up at the flag pole and wonder, "Does this mean this city or this state shares the sentiments of the KKK? Or does it mean something else?"  The defense of these relics in and of itself prioritizes the emotions and feelings of one group of Southerners over another. The legacy of preserving the wishes of white Southerners at the expense of black Southerners has gone on in myriad of ways for long enough. It's time to let this last manifestation of Southern white supremacy go.

In order for my Southern friends to fully embrace their Southern pride, the symbols and monuments to Southern shame need to be removed. Letting go of the Lost Cause is something that a son or daughter of the South can truly be proud of.  

A few years ago I had a Southern girl as one of my middle school students.  I always found her accent so charming and her gracious Southern manner so remarkable. Her skin was caramel brown, her lips full, her hair tightly curled. She too was a belle of the South. She too, is America.

There's a southern accent, where I come from

The young 'uns call it country

The Yankees call it dumb

I got my own way of talkin'

But everything is done, with a southern accent

Where I come from

Now that drunk tank in Atlanta's

Just a motel room to me

Think I might go work Orlando

If them orange groves don't freeze

I got my own way of workin'

But everything is run, with a southern accent

Where I come from

For just a minute there I was dreaming

For just a minute it was all so real

For just a minute she was standing there, with me

There's a dream I keep having

Where my mama comes to me

And kneels down over by the window

And says a prayer for me

I got my own way of prayin'

But everyone's begun

With a southern accent

Where I come from

I got my own way of livin'

But everything gets done

With a southern accent

Where I come from

--Tom Petty "Southern Accents"