Dispatch from Coronaville: Uncovering the Past

Pictured here is my great-grandfather, William Thomson III (standing on the left with the mustache), my great great-grandfather, William Thomson II (seated), and my great-great uncles David Couper Thomson and Frederick Thomson. I look at this group of Scotsmen and can't quite believe that we are directly related! (But then I look at Great Great-Grandpa and he looks a lot like Grandpa to me)

One of the blessings that has come to me out of this pandemic is the opportunity to learn more about my family history. During our Zoom chats after our weekly online family church service my mom, aunts, uncles and cousins have been unpacking precious stories of their parents and grandparents. I love every minute of it.  My sister has been doing a deep dive into our family history, mostly on my mom's side. She's been scouring geneaolgy records, making connections and remarkable discovery.  It's been amazing to learn that we are related to a successful Chinese actress, Jacquelyn Chan, who in her eighties is still making movies. We are also related to a former president of Trinidad and Tobago. Most fascinating has been learning about my great grandfather William Thomson III, a successful shipping magnate from Scotland. His brother David, my great-great uncle, began, DC Thomson a publishing company that is still a major media presence in the UK today. It's so surreal to know that these people are not just distantly, but directly related to me. It's been pretty cool!

Moving on to the numbers today: The U.S. is definitely seeing a case surge and that there are hints that a death surge may be on the horizon, like a distance wave beginning to swell. Today the U.S. case total stands at 2,748,775, a 7.4% increase over the past three days, the largest rate of increase we've had since.  That's 22,375 more cases than I predicted. Likewise the total deaths are 128,655,  a 2% increase and the second highest rate of increase since. That's about 1400 more deaths than I anticipated.  With these rates in mind I project there will be 2,952,187 total cases in the U.S. by Sunday, July 5, and 131,228 tragic deaths.

Florida's new case total over a three-day period has dropped to it's second highest number, 22,765 new cases. The state is still way off my chart. Their new cases will have to drop below 14,900 before I can chart Florida again. Ohio on the other hand has posted it's second decrease in a row, and Nebraska has dropped as well

Total Cases:

Florida: 169,098 total cases, 0.77% of the population. At this rate Florida will soon have had 1% of it's total population infected.

Ohio: 52,865 total cases, 0.45% of the population.

Nebraska: 19,390 total cases, 0.99% of the population. It looks like Nebraska will beat Florida to the 1% milestone.

The mortality situation has been a bright spot in this latest surge, but I sense a shadow falling across the land, for Florida for sure. Ohio seems to be maintaining a larger overall downward trend and Nebraska remains steady. But Florida just posted 170 deaths, it's third largest number over a three-day period since I began tracking these stats. It only stands to reason, even with those catching the virus being younger and healthier, that many cases has to have impact on the number of deaths. If the pattern continues I'd expect a drop in deaths on Sunday in Florida and then another large spike three days after that, with the overall pattern being an increase in deaths in the Sunshine State.

Total Deaths:

Florida: 3,616, a rate of 2.1%

Ohio: 2,876, a rate of 5.4%

Nebraska: 282, a rate of 1.5%