Corona Chronicles: Groundhog Day

 We've been here before.  The surging cases, the overwhelmed hospitals, the pleas to just do the right thing and help stop the spread, the recalcitrant refusal to do anything that might actually help.  It's all so familiar.  Like the  movie, Groundhog Day, we seem doomed to repeat the same cycle over and over until we learn from our mistakes and finally do better.  Forgive me if I'm skeptical that we will ever learn anything. 

And as a result, I find I'm growing tired of writing about this. I've said all there is to say and I have nothing new to add. My final Corona Chronicles blog--at least as a regular entry will be next month.  That will mark a year of monthly chronicles of this seemingly endless pandemic. I may write occasional entries under this series, without the monthly updates on the numbers as the need arises. I honestly thought we'd be in a better place by now--but that too feels like deja vu.  I have repeatedly hoped we were finally getting ahead of this thing, only to have those hopes dashed.

I tend to think things won't happen to me. That's how I ended up breaking my left arm two weeks ago. I was on a ladder that slipped a bit while leaning against the garage roof I was about to clear of moss.  I thought about getting a different, sturdier ladder but then decided I'd be fine.  After all things like falling ladders don't happen to me.  But of course, it did happen to me.  A few minutes later, as I was  descending the ladder, it slipped again, crashing to the driveway and taking me with it. My belief that it won't happen to me failed me.  I tend to feel that I won't get COVID. Because, things don't happen to me. But I'm thinking maybe I shouldn't be so sure.  I just found out a good friend tested positive, after going in to get a test because she'd been feeling under the weather (Groundhog Day again. A year ago another friend tested positive right on the eve of the new school year as well!)  She's vaccinated, making her one of those rare (but not impossible) breakthrough cases.  Getting the call from her tonight, made me think twice about assuming that it can't happen to me.  It can.  Hopefully it won't.  While I don't like this merry-go-round pandemic experience, I don't want the lesson that breaks me out of my own personal Groundhog Day to be that I should have been more careful.

As of today, August 15 there have been 36,684,028  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Another 2,751,878  new cases were added since July 15  This month's numbers represent an average of  an 8% increase in the number of new cases over the past month, and 2,242,896  more than I predicted. There have been 621,051 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 13,686 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 2.2% monthly increase.  It is also 5,790 more deaths than I predicted.  The Delta contagion is proving ruthless in its onslaught of our, unmasked, sort of vaccinated nation. I'm hoping that we are reaching the peak of this surge and will see a drop-off in cases and deaths in the coming month.

 

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 39,618,750 total cases by September 15 and 634,714 deaths.  

Cases are skyrocketing in all of our benchmark states, with Florida and Hawaii showing the most increase. Both states have obliterated their previous peaks. While Ohio, Illinois and Nebraska have showed big jumps in cases, at least their rate of increase remains in single digits and all under 5%.

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,877,393 total cases, 494,325  of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 21%. This is 408,535  more cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 3,481,646 total cases by September 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,157,782 total cases, with 42,540 new cases being added over the past month. The rate of increase rose to 3.8%. This is 34,733 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,201,778 total cases by September 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 233,403 total cases, of which 7,803 are new cases, an increase of 3.5%. This is 5,998 more cases than I predicted: Prediction: 241,572 total cases by September 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 48,376 total cases, an average of 11,201 new cases last month, an increase of  30%. This is  9,752 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: 62,889 total cases by September 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,462,088 total cases, 59,564 new cases, an increase of  4%. This is 48,344 more cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,520,571 total cases by September 15, 2021

Only two states-Ohio and Illinois-have continued to see a decline in their percent of increase in deaths.  Thankfully, all the percents of increase in deaths are below 10%. Hopefully this continues to support the theory that while the Delta variant is more contagious, it is not more deadly.

Total Deaths

Florida: 40,766 total deaths, of which  2,484 are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 6.5%. This is 1,413 more deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 43,415 total deaths by September 15, 2021.

Ohio: 20,614 total deaths, of which 203 are new deaths, an increase of 1%. This is 123 deaths fewer than I predicted.  Prediction: 20,820 deaths by  September 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 2,564 total deaths. This includes 29 new deaths, an increase of  1.1%. This is an average of 12 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,592 total deaths by September 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 545 total deaths,  including 27 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 5%. This is 12 more deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 561 total deaths by September 15, 2021.

Illinois: 26,092 total deaths, 289 new deaths, an increase of 1.1%. This 21 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 26,353 total deaths by September 15, 2021.