Corona Chronicles: Unmasked

 

The view at the end of April, 2021 and  two weeks later. . .

I hate masks. I hate wearing them. I hate seeing other people in them. For me, finding a used mask lying on the ground is akin to finding a used prophylactic. The whole mask thing is just gross to me. So when I say that I've been consistent in masking up throughout this pandemic it's not because I particularly enjoyed them. I'm very enthused about the CDC's recent guidance change that allows vaccinated people such as myself to go without masks. I admit I haven't been bold enough to walk into Kroger without my mask--not because I don't trust that I'm safe, but because I just didn't want to "stand out."  But that day is coming. The science is clear. Vaccinated people have a vanishingly small chance of contracting or spreading the virus.  It's time to unmask and I could not be happier!

Sporting my "favorite" mask (which I still hated wearing)

Much better!

That said, I've always been a bit annoyed by the anti-mask crowd. Their whole argument has been based on a whole lot of bad science, YouTube-hawked by rogue doctors and crank scientists and supported by dubious anecdotal evidence.  Further their dismissal of masks as ineffective is always based on exactly the opposite reason for mask wearing from the reason provided by mainstream science.  They always acted as if people wore masks to avoid contracting the virus and then would triumphally report how this and that study showed that masks provide little protection to the wearer. But, while masks might provide some protection to the wearer, the main reason we've worn masks for more than a year is to protect others, not ourselves. This is widely known and I can't help but feel that the anti-mask folks have deliberately ignored this reality in order to defeat a more convenient argument.  I find it especially puzzling since at least some of these people work in medical fields where they've worn masks for years.  Yet, suddenly now masks are this dangerous thing?  I don't get it. In some ways it feels like what my conservative friends like to call "virtue signaling", letting others know where one stands politically by their strident mask opposition.

The greatest disappointment of this pandemic has been that so many have had this childish insistence on refusing to acknowledge the seriousness of COVID-19 or to do anything that might mitigate it.  From the beginning there are those who have resisted everything--lockdowns, masks, social distancing, vaccines.  I understand not wanting to accept that something is serious is happening, but grown people should do better.  I wonder what the COVID deniers make of what has been happening in India over the past month?

Now that masks mandates are being lifted, with the understanding that only those who are vaccinated will stop masking, I have no doubt that many who are not vaccinated will doff their masks as well.  Why wouldn't they? They rankled at being required to wear them in the first place. As we all converge unmasked back into public spaces (we'll be heading back to church in the next month; I hope to take my former 8th grade students from the class of 2017 out for our traditional high school graduation dinner; and I'm looking at booking tickets to a Needtobreathe/Switchfoot concert in September), I'm not sure what that will mean for the trajectory of the virus.  Best case, there are enough vaccinated people out there that cases and deaths continue to decline. It's also possible that we could see a slight bump in both cases and deaths as unvaccinated people fall prey to acting impervious. And worst case scenario enough people keep spreading the virus that it has a chance to mutate into a strain that is resistant to the vaccine.  Obviously I'm hoping for the best case scenario, and rather selfishly, I can live with the second scenario as well.  But if we get a worst case scenario and we have to return to pandemic life, I will be peeved to say the least.

As of today, May 15 there have been 32,921,793  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. I missed a month! I just didn't have the time and April slipped by on me before I knew it. As a result all the numbers presented today will be a two month average rather than actual values. With that in mind lets take a look at the state of virus in the U.S in the spring of 2021. Another 3,201,283  new cases were added since March 19, an average of 1,600,642 new cases for each of the past two months.  This month's numbers represent an average of  a 5% increase in the number of new cases over the past two months, and about 680,000 fewer than I predicted. Over the past two months we saw a slight uptick in cases driven by surges in Michigan and a few other states, but on the whole the general trajectory continues to be steadily down. There have been 584,725 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with an average of 22,386 of those occurring in each of the past two months. This is a 4% monthly increase. This is 32,086 fewer deaths than from COVID than we had February to March, effectively cutting our death rate in half! It is also 37,000 fewer deaths than I predicted and in fact our death tally at two months is still lower than what I'd predicted we would incur over just one month.  I expect to see the number of deaths continue to drop as well as the cases continue to decline.

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 34,567,883 total cases by June 15 and 608,114 deaths.  But I think there's a very good chance we don't get there.

The rate of increase in cases continued to decline in Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska: Surprisingly, Hawaii and Illinois registered more cases than I had predicted.  This may have been a function of that slight uptick in the later half of March and April, and it's possible they may be back on a downward trajectory now. 

I'm glad percentage of increases stayed below 10% for all states and I continue to hold out hope for increases below 5% by June.

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,286,195 total cases,  an average of 143,473  new cases monthly, an increase of 7%. This is 36,459  fewer cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,446,229 total cases by June 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,089,357  total cases, an average of 46,011 new cases. While Ohio did join the Million Case Club in April, the average monthly  increase  dropped to 4.6%. This is 13,829 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,139,467 total cases by June 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 222,335 total cases, an average of 7,932 new cases, an increase of 3.8%. This is only 326 fewer cases than I predicted (Interesting side note--if rate of increase remained steady from April to May I am off the actual case numbers by ONE person!): Prediction: 230,783 total cases by June 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 33,966 total cases, an average of 2,644 new cases each month, an increase of  9%. This is an average of 1,337 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: 37,022 total cases by June 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,367,431 total cases, 72,694 new cases, an increase of  6%. This is 11,862 more cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,449,476 total cases by June 15, 2021

Deaths have plummeted across the board over the past two months!  This is really good news. After all, that has been the real goal--not to avoid getting COVID, but for getting COVID to be "no big deal" for a much larger majority of those who contract it.  We want to see deaths and hospitalizations enter the realm of the flu, and even the common cold.  It looks like we are getting there! Note the rate of increase in deaths is now 5% or lower for all of our benchmark states. And even Hawaii and Nebraska which saw case increases higher than predicted still had slightly lower rates of death increase than I predicted.

Total Deaths

Florida: 35,999 total deaths, an average of 1,674 new deaths, an increase of 5%. This is 2,571 fewer deaths than I forecast. Indeed Florida still hasn't reached the death toll of 36,895 I predicted for April. Prediction: 37,798 total deaths by June 15, 2021.

Ohio: 19,528 total deaths, an average of 594 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This is 1,607 deaths fewer than I predicted and at this rate we still will not have reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,113 deaths by  June 15, 2021. This is incredibly good news! It's nice to see deaths no longer arriving by the thousands every month. Our next goal is to see those deaths drop into the tens!

Nebraska: 2,378 total deaths. This the exact number of deaths I forecast for April 19. Nebraska hit this mark almost a month late, with an average of 68 new deaths, an increase of  3%. This is an average of 67 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,449 total deaths by June 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 487 total deaths,  an average of 19 new deaths, an increase of 4%. This is 8 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 506 total deaths by June 15, 2021.

Illinois: 24,725 total deaths, 711 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This 454 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 25,466 total deaths by June 15, 2021.