Where do we go now? That's the question as I conclude this blog series that began a lifetime ago on March 19. When I started this blog series I was looking at China as our model and expecting a similar trajectory. Two months of struggle and then coming out into the light around the end of May or early June. Coronaville was never intended to be a permanent settlement. I saw it as a war-time encampment that would eventually pack up stakes leaving behind nothing but faded grass circles where the tents used to be. And indeed it may yet be that, but this is turning out to be more like the Civil War, which the North thought would be over in a few months time. It appears that this is going to drag on. I don't know that there's much more to say every three days about the COVID crisis. I am prone to repeating myself and that will definitely happen if I keep sending back Dispatches from Coronaville.
My plan is to begin a new series: The COVID Chronicles, which will appear at the very least, on the fifth of each month (The first one will be out this weekend!). I'll be free of the every three days straitjacket and if I have something that I find I want to say before my regular fifth of the month entry I'll throw in an extra post. This is an approach for the long hall, for the "duration" as they used to say during World War II.
Personally, I'm beginning to get a sense of what the "new normal" is going to look like for me and my family. I know back in May I'd said we'd be holed up until new cases have gone down steadily for two weeks, and by large that's still true but what it means to be "holed up" seems a bit more flexible. Already we've loosened some restrictions. We've had a few outdoor socially distanced gatherings for a handful of Elijah's friends. The boys went to a store with their mom the other day for the first time since before March 12. We're really hoping to go camping once or twice this fall.
Why the change? For one, our numbers are down in Ohio--at least that's the official word (to be honest when I look at the numbers myself, "down" seems a bit generous), at least for now, which helps. Second, I feel like we have a better sense now than we did at the outset of this thing of what it takes to keep ourselves safe (or safer anyway). Masks and social distancing are vital. Beyond that, we remain committed to avoiding large crowds in enclosed spaces for long periods of time. Within those limits, there's room to move a bit, room to live. Third, and I have to be honest here, there's a part of me that is becoming acclimatized (perhaps desensitized even) to living in a pandemic. Humans can only maintain a heightened state of emotional excitement of any kind for so long before it begins to wear off. Even the most of horrible of circumstances can become normalized over time. We are shifting from crisis mode to chronic mode.
Today in the United States our COVID case total stands at 6,161,915, of which 120,030 were new cases added in the last three days. This about 5, 200 more cases than I predicted. We have had a total of 186,584 total deaths, and 3,134 of those people died in the last three days. This is about 1200 more deaths than I predicted. Since this is my last Dispatch I won't be making any new predictions. I'll be continuing to follow the numbers closely, recording our daily totals for our county on my offline graph.
New cases are back up again. All three states posted sharp upticks in new cases and all three seem to be looking most likely at plateaus that are higher than they were earlier this year.
Total Cases
Florida: 637,005, total cases, 2.9% of the population
Ohio: 127,112 total cases, 1.1% of the population
Nebraska: 35,052 total cases, 1.8% of the population
Deaths are up as well. Nothing much new to report here.
Total Deaths
Florida: 11,649, a rate of 1.8%
Ohio: 4,226, a rate of 3.3%
Nebraska: 408, a rate of 1.2%
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