Dispatch from Coronaville: We are done with virus; Is the virus done with us?

Our church parking lot this afternoon at least half full of cars for a funeral held there today. Not many folks wearing masks. I have no judgement of these folks gathering together to say farewell to someone dear to them. I'm just making an observation.

We are moving on.  We are done with the coronavirus and looking to other things.  The job market added jobs this month. More and more things are opening up.  There's still the occasional nod to masks and social distancing here and there, but by and large we are concluding our business with COVID-19.

The question is: Is the virus done with us?  Is COVID going to let us walk out the door. Or will it grab us by the arm and yank us back into our chair, get uncomfortably in our faces, and say through gritted teeth: "I'm not done with you yet!:  I believe this month will tell the story.

Almost one month ago I did a little review of the previous month in Coronavirus and made predictions for the upcoming month.  Now here we are.  By the time I post this (It's 11: 50 PM right now) it will be June 6, exactly one month since the last time I took a step back for the bigger picture.  So it's time to do it again.

I'm pleased to report that the increase in cases and deaths were a lot lower than even my prediction based on half the rate of increase. I thought we'd have 2.4 million cases in the U.S. by now, but instead we are only at 1,911,444 total cases, an increase over the past month of 56%. Likewise with deaths I expected there would be 275,000 deaths in the U.S. but instead we only have 109,299 deaths,  an increase of 34% over the past month. I decided that for my predictions over the next month I would keep use the same percent increase instead of reducing it by half as I did last month.  I try to be conservative in my predictions and right now, with the aftermath of re-openings and the protests still to come, I think reducing by half would be a little ambitious now. So: By July 6, I expect 2,981,853 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States, and 146,461 deaths.

As for our three-day numbers, the U.S. total cases increased by 3.8%, 5,500 more cases than I predicted. Meanwhile I'm gonna say I was statistically accurate on deaths, with the 2.3% rate of increase I predicted and only 20 fewer deaths than I projected. We really seem to be holding steady at this point, with a more or less constant rate of increase every three days. Based on these numbers I project 1,984,079 total cases by Monday, June 8 and 111,813 deaths.

On to the states.  The news is not good for Florida. Cases there have skyrocketed over the past three days with 4,041 new cases added to their tally.  They are literally off the chart. Perhaps these are the open-up protesters from a few weeks back finally paying the piper?  Ohio and Nebraska both posted modest gains in their number of new cases, but one might be able to argue that Ohio at least is showing an overall decline in the number of new cases. Still we will have to wait until Monday to begin the countdown clock again. 

Total Cases:

Florida: 61,480 total cases, 0.28% of the population. Florida's total cases increased by 65% over the past month. Based on that rate, I would expect 101,442 total cases in Florida by July 6.

Ohio: 37,758 total cases, 0.32% of the population. Ohio's total cases increased by 75% in the last month. Based on that rate  of increase I would expect 66,077 total case in Ohio by July 6.

Nebraska: 15,379 total cases, 0.79% of the population. Nebraska's total cases increased by 136% which was less than I projected but still a much higher rate of increase than Ohio and Florida.  Based on  that rate of increase I would expect 36,294 cases in Nebraska by July 6, a number that  would represent more than 1.8% of the state's population.

Florida and Ohio both showed increases in the number of new deaths in this three-day period, with Ohio outstripping Florida in this category. Only Nebraska continued a downward trend in deaths.

Total Deaths: 

Florida: 2,659 total deaths, a rate of 4.3%. Florida's new deaths increased by 81%. Based on that trend I'd expect 4,813 deaths by July 6.

Ohio: 2,355 total deaths, a rate of 6.2%. Ohio's number of Corona dead did not exceed Florida's as I had predicted. Their rate of increase was 90% and based on that number I'd expect 4,475 deaths by July 6

Nebraska: 193 total deaths, a rate of 1.3% Nebraska total deaths increased by 133% over the past month. Based on that rate of increase I would expect 450 total deaths in Nebraska but July 6.