Alaska One: Sojourn in Ketchikan

 

The view of Ketchikan as seen from the ferry at the airport.

Observations from my first day of travel on my Alaskan adventure.  Coming into Ketchikan reminded me so much of Micronesia. I know, not the comparison you would expect. But coming in over water, the small village vibe of the buildings, the green of the mountains were all reminiscent of landing in say, Pohnpei.  The big difference is, of course, the temperature. In the 50’s which is plenty cold for me, especially in July.  It is overcast, but dry.  Once off the plane, we took a ferry from the airport, which I guess is on an island, over to the mainland.

Alaska is really a whole place unto itself. It doesn’t feel like anywhere else in the United States.  While we were waiting for the ferry, a guy told me that Juneau is the only state capital you can’t drive to.  He says there are no roads into Juneau.  You can only take a boat or fly in. He said there are a lot of places like that in Alaska.

Being here feels like being at a U2 concert. One chocolate chip in a sea of vanilla ice cream. So far it seems I am the only black person in the state--at least haven’t seen anyone else that looks like me so far. Which is fine. I’m not discomfited. My philosophy has always been to act as if I belong and in general people treat me that way.

I’m very tired. I didn’t get much sleep last night and of course while it’s only 9:30 PM here in Ketchikan, it’s 1:30 AM back home in Ohio.

I miss Babs and the kids. But I’m also excited for what tomorrow holds. And also really looking forward to seeing old and dear friends.

Flashback: The Very First Class Trip

 Since the beginning of this year I've begun the herculean task of going back and reading all  53 of my journals, which I've been keeping since the summer after my fifth grade year, in 1985.  (If you've got the time for another long read, check out this post from 2010 where I go over my history of journaling. It includes lots of photos and descriptions of the different eras in my journaling life. Interestingly, I got more comments--from strangers-on that post than probably any other blog  post I've done).

 I've gone back and read portions here and there over the years, but I've never gone back and read them  chronologically until now. It's been quite a journey, essentially reliving my life thus far all over again. There were a lot of things I'd forgotten, and even some things I'd misremembered.  Along the way I've uncovered some gems that I just have to share and today's blog post is one of them.

I was 25 years old and it was my first year as a professional educator (I'd already knocked out a year in Chuuk as a student missionary, but now I had a degree and ostensibly knew what I was doing). It was also my first year leading an 8th grade class trip, and seeing as how on Saipan there wasn't a nearby amusement park for us to visit for the day, we decided to take our 8th graders off the island--way off the island. We decided to go to Bali, one of the islands of Indonesia.

I had no prior experience with leading middle school students on any kind of trip. I'm trying to remember if we'd even taken so much as a field trip on-island before I took my students to a foreign country. I don't think we did. Thankfully, the trip went well, despite a few minor mishaps along the way and that Bali trip set the stage for trips around the globe for the next 22 years.  This is the account of that trip, from my journal, occasionally interspersed with my commentary:

My first 8th grade class trip to Bali, Indonesia, Thursday, March 26-Friday, April 2, 1999. This photo was taken at a rice terrace while we were in Bali. I keep this photo framed in my classroom, a reminder of how it all began.

"Guam Layover"

Thursday, March 25, 1999, En Route to Bali

"Well, the big trip is here at last. Babs, Melissa [a student missionary working as the school's office manager and a fellow 8th grade sponsor], and I are on our way with almost all of the 8th grade class in tow. I am a mix of exhausted, excited, and scared. Exhausted because I've only gotten 4.5 hours of sleep. Excited because it's so cool to be going on a big adventure with my students. Scared because I don't know what to expect in Bali and I'm not sure what to do. What should we do tomorrow? Will I get a good exchange rate? Will I be able to find a good driver?  These things worry me--and of course I shudder to think of something to happening to one of these kids in my care. Oh Lord, have mercy and grant me grace I need for this trip."

I'm shocked by my lack of preparation. Did I not plan and share an itinerary with the parents in advance of the trip? How did I not know what we were doing when we arrived or how we would get around?  For those parents who have sent their students with me on more recent trips, you know how detailed my itineraries are now. Even when we change plans once the trip begins--which we do more often than not--I cannot imagine going on a trip and not really knowing what's going to happen.  I no longer have those worries when I go on a trip, but that last worry--that something will happen to one of the kids in my care--is one that I still carry with me on every trip, right up to the epic road trip we took just a month and a half ago. No matter how many of these trips I lead, getting the kids there and back in one piece will always be my number one priority and the single big anxiety on my mind.

"Today has been good. We were at the airport on time and we started off very organized. We arrived in Guam at around 10:30 AM. The Clauses [the Guam-Micronesia Mission education superintendent and his wife] met us and lent us vehicles for the day. George Palican [father of Jamal, one of my students] also met us and led us to the Micronesia Mall where we had lunch and let the kids roam for awhile. In the afternoon we went to Guam Adventist Academy and they gave us a tour. The kids were particularly enthralled with the drinking fountains and air con [air con is the term we use in the islands for air conditioning. Why the kids were enthralled, I don't know, since we had air conditioning at our school in Saipan too].

We also went to K-Mart and let the kids and ourselves do some shopping there. [K-Mart was a big deal. There was no Wal-Mart, Target or other big box store on Guam and certainly none on Saipan, so K-Mart was the reasonably priced shopping destination in Micronesia. I don't know if it's still that way].  By that time, it was time for us to head back to the airport to catch our flight out.

No real problems today. Myung Hun, Nick, and Daniel got in trouble w/ one of the security guards at the mall for spitting over the railing. Josh forgot his suitcase at the airport and George Palican had to go back and find it. For a while I was afraid I'd lost Jane's passport and ticket but it turns out I didn't. But that was all. I am grateful.

I am enjoying this immensely so far. Traveling with Jane, Jamal, Myung Hun, Nick, Levayna, Jennifer, Josh, Clarence, & Daniel is a lot of fun. They're great kids and I love them. . . Well, that's all for now. We'll be in Bali soon. 10:10 PM Bali time, 12:10 A.M. Saipan time. . .Here goes!"

As I recall only two students did not attend the trip with us, Franklin Iglecias (who, incidentally, passed away a number of years ago; the first of my former students I've lost) and Nam Hee Kim did not go.

"Disoriented"

Friday, March 26, 1999, Bali, Indonesia

"Still tired. Delays at the airport kept us back and we ended up crashing at 1:30 AM. . .We are in a new and strange culture. You can't really rely on what you think. Consult guidebooks, experts, the people."

Sabbath, March 27, 1999, Bali, Indonesia

"11:30 AM It's Sabbath morning. I'm sitting out on the balcony of our hotel room and this is perfect. I can look out and see the hazy blue skies, thatched roofs, and the green of all kinds of tropical trees. Looking inside, Babs sits on the bed reading a magazine. I can see her through the huge, open French windows. I never thought I'd experience such rest and relaxation here with the kids--but it turns out they're more open to hanging out at the hotel than I thought. In fact, right now they don't want to go anywhere else."

In 22 years of travels, I have found that the vast majority of my 8th graders are quite happy to hang out at the hotel, swim at the hotel pool and not go anywhere else other than maybe some shopping, the movies, and an amusement park if available.  These trips have never been just about giving the kids a trip they'll find "fun."  It's been about exposing them to new experiences and giving them  memories they'll treasure for a lifetime. Bali certainly set a high bar for that type of trip. As you'll see the kids were way outside their comfort zone.

Anyways, here we are and the only thing to mar the peace and quiet is...the phone in the next room. It's been on the fritz for the past 45 minutes and has been ringing continuously.

Things have been cool and crazy and fun and tiring and surprising so far.

We arrived in Bali around 10:30 PM Thursday night (12:30 AM Saipan time) and were immediately thrown into delays. Levayna had to buy her visa, but thank goodness--she was able to get in okay. Nick's luggage never showed up and we had to wait for him to work that out. He still hasn't gotten any word, so he's had to buy a new toothbrush etc and clothes as well. We couldn't find our driver at first--he was holding up a sign with Myung Hun's name on it. I saw it but didn't think anything of it--figuring it must be some other Korean group. But sure enough, it was our transfer and Myung Hun was immortalized as our group representative. It just so happened that his name was first on the list and thus the sign read 'Myung Hun Kim & Party'.

We got to our hotel around 12:30 AM or 1 AM Bali time, worked out the confusion with our room arrangements, waded through the flooded pathways of the hotel grounds (there was about four to six inches of water on the ground and we had to walk on stones to get to our rooms), and went to bed.

Five and a half hours later we woke up again. We had a short worship, breakfast at the hotel restaurant and then headed out on our tour. As if an omen for things to come, I lost one of my contacts yesterday morning, so now I'm stuck w/ glasses for the rest of the week.

The tour was cool. Bali is such a beautiful country and so exotic.  The humblest shack and most basic gas station is ornately decorated.  Everywhere you look you see shrines, offerings, carvings, statues, and other signs of this country's strong Hindu religion. You can look out and see people working in their rice fields. It's really something to see. We stopped at a silversmith where Myung Hun got ripped off--two silver rings for $14. We stopped at a woodshop and at the market in Ubud.  Then we went to lunch at a great place overlooking a deep, jungly gorge. The food was great and it was wonderful that it was all free--part of our package deal.  After lunch we went to the monkey forest and that was interesting. Jamal had a monkey snatch a banana right out of his hand when he wasn't looking, and Daniel freaked out and threw his whole bunch of bananas at one monkey.

After the forest, we headed back to Kuta and our hotel, which is where our real adventures and mishaps began.  We rested for an hour--the kids swam and I got sucked into some bargaining over a white-water rafting tour. Around 5:30 we took the kids into Kuta to explore, change money, and get Nick some clothes. It ended up that Nick and I changed money and that turned out to be a disaster.  While the changers I used in Ubud early that day had 50,000 notes (the exchange rate is around 8800 to 8900 [rupia] to one [US] dollar), these guys had nothing but 10,000 notes [think of it has having nothing but one dollar bills] and it got wild. I had this whole stack of bills that I had to count ten times to be sure it was right. Furthermore, Nick started changing his money at the same time and he was dealing w/over a million rupia. Anyway, the long and short of it is that I think Nick got shorted out of about $73 US dollars. He was exchanging money for other kids so we reimbursed them and cost the class the $73 we lost. I really hated to lose that money. 

To get a sense of how much money we lost, that $73 was the equivalent of 6 meals for a group of twelve at Indonesian prices, as indicated below. That was a lot of money!

That done, Nick and I pushed our way back through the barrage of tourists and hawkers and met up w/ the others for supper. 4 large pizzas, 4 pitchers of soda and personal pan pizza for Josh cost only $12. Incredible.

By the time we left the restaurant it was dark and the kids were getting freaked out. the hawkers and merchants were driving them crazy. They were scared being out at night and not to mention exhausted from lack of proper sleep. Some are declaring that they want to go home. Now.

We came back, had worship, agonized over the money situation and thus came the end to our day."

I seem to recall that Sabbath, March 27 was a religious holiday and everything was closed anyway. It was the perfect day for our kids to relax at the hotel and recover from the culture shock of the day before.  Since we couldn't go anywhere, I didn't feel like we missed anything.

"Humbled"

Sunday, March 28, 1999, Bali, Indonesia

"Morning is peaceful and quiet. I'm sitting at the pool watching Shelly and the girls swim. [Shelly  was one of the other teachers. She had tagged along on the trip, but was not a chaperone and thus not responsible for any students. Shelly hung out with us sometimes, but much of the time just did her own thing].  Sun is coming out and it's getting warm fast. . ."

What follows is a journal entry in the form of a prayer:

"'O God you are my God, I shall seek you early.' Psalm 63;1. If I had sought You earlier I could have spared myself a lot of embarrassment and the class about $100.  The loss stings, my pride still hurts. Yesterday afternoon, I went to change money and got ripped off of...(let me figure it out on the calculator)...$22.35 making a grand total of $95.35 we've been suckered out of the in the past two days. I was a fool. I went alone when everyone else suggested otherwise.  I ignored my instincts when they guy kept picking up the money while I was counting it. I was proud, over-confident that I could do it on my own. And I was brought low. That I could handle, but losing the money...that really stings.

Lord, I really need Your help. I can't do this without You. I really can't. . . 

Be with the kids also. Grant them peace, confidence and the knowledge that You are with them always. . .

Last night, Babs and Melissa led the kids in singing for sundown worship and it was so beautiful to hear their voices raised in praise to God. . .

So today is a new day. Money needs to be exchanged. Shopping needs to be done. Bargaining. And though we are $95 poorer, I pray that I am richer in wisdom and in the presence of my God."

"Finding our Footing"

Monday, March 29, 1999, Bali Indonesia

"Another day and I'm tired. The kids were up late, wired on McDonalds, their new CDs that they bought, and the adventures of the evening.  The Lord really answered all our prayers. I felt like yesterday went so much better. Most of the day--the morning anyway, we spent relaxing and hanging out at the hotel. We went to Hard Rock Cafe which was horribly overpriced and then Babs, Nick, Daniel, Clarence, Josh, & Myung Hun and myself hit the streets to change money and shop. The whole thing was an adventure.  We started by going down a side alley lined with shops and flooded in muddy water.  We passed the hotel where Babs stayed last time she was here [six and  half years earlier when she was a student missionary in Palau and visiting on her Christmas vacation] and the vendor where she got chased. All along the way we tried to change money in about half a dozen places and that in and of itself was a 2 hour adventure. We found a couple of places with high rates but without fail they were rip off joints. But by the grace of God and bit more street smarts earned the hard way from my mistakes on Sabbath, we were never taken for a ride, though they sure tried hard.

We would hit a place en masse. Usually, Josh, Nick or Daniel would stand behind us and watch, like secret service agents. Clarence would hold the calculator and Babs and I would go to the counter and lay down the first hundred. Man, they tried everything they could. One place, they tried to make all the boys wait outside, sitting down with their backs to us. Another place wanted us to come up one at a time or maybe that was the same place. At one place they started dancing around while we were counting to distract us, asking Daniel where he was from and pretending to box with him. Another place they tried to change the rate after we were finished. One wanted to change all the money at once ($370) presumably because counting over two million rupia could get very confusing. Several places kept insisting on. . .holding the money after us to 'recount' or whatever, and there was no way we were gonna let them do that. At one point both of us [me and the moneychanger] were holding on to the stack of money and neither of us would let go. We also had a guy who wanted to put the money away before we started counting. Ridiculous. 

It was kind of stressful, but oh, it felt so good to walk out of those places knowing that we'd caught them in the act and they had to let go.

Finally, we found a place w/ considerably lower rate 8850 compared to 9099 and 9090 places we were going to and the difference was so refreshing. The lady gave us the money in big bills which are much easier to count (Some of the places were giving us 5000 denominations which were 20 to a stack to make 100,000). She gave us the money, let us count, and didn't ask to touch it or try to touch it again.  And there was only one of her unlike the three guys usually 'needed' at the seedier places to make a transaction.

It was already six and getting dark when we got the kids some fast food at McDonalds and later Wendys and started shopping. The kids bought CDs. Nick got some shorts and a couple of them bargained with the street peddlers for fake Rolexes, some Tommy cologne (which seemed pretty authentic), and so on.  They got some okay bargains, and lost a lot of their fear of the peddlers. They enjoyed the process and it was fun to see them get into it. Nick and Daniel and Myung Hun were a sight to watch haggling with these guys. It was cool. We got back around 9:15 and spent the evening retelling all our stories over McDonald's that Babs and I got for the kids."

It would have been better if we'd simply gone to the banks or to moneychangers with reasonable exchange rates.  But we were tempted by those exchange rates in the 9000s, which would put more money in our pockets. It took us awhile to realize that those places offered those rates because they counted on stealing some of the money in the exchange. They would have lost money if they honored their advertised exchange rate, which was higher than official rate of exchange. I have a new appreciation for why Jesus drove the moneychangers from the temple!

"Scared Students to Seasoned Travelers"

As often happens on class trips, our schedule got so busy that I had no more time to write the rest of the trip.  But once we were back in Saipan, I recapped the rest of the trip in an entry on Tuesday, April 6, 1999:

"In the time that remained we went jet skiing and parasailing, visited Uluwatu, a cliffside monkey temple overlooking the Pacific Ocean. There clad in purple sarongs and yellow sashes we watched Josh get outsmarted by the monkeys. Parasailing was fun though I felt like I was going to fall out of my harness the whole time. I rode the jet skies once as Myung Hun's passenger and was thrown once by his wild driving [I would not allow my students to pilot the jet skis now. In the U.S. they would have been considered too young to drive the machines and I would have stuck to that standard regardless of looser local restrictions].  This was the story for both days, Monday and Tuesday except Tuesday Babs didn't come--she stayed back at the hotel with Nick because he was sick, and that was the day we went to Uluwatu.

Wednesday and Thursday were the "big trips" to see the barong dance, which featured a fascinating gamelan orchestra, typically beautiful Indonesian women, some vulgarity, and a lot of local audience enthusiasm.  We also passed some gorgeous rice terraces and went to Kintimani, a volcano.  However it foggy and we couldn't see anything but mist, so we just ate lunch and then went back down to Ubud, where we shopped a short while. I got a striped bag for some bongos for $5  and black bag for two sarongs for Clarence's little sister [the bags had significance. I can't remember which, but either the black or striped back was supposedly a signal that you had gotten a good deal and a signal to other vendors that you were a bargainer to be reckoned with]. 

Thursday we went rafting and that was great!  I really enjoyed that. It was exciting, pretty much the whole time and the scenery--breathtaking cliffs, verdant rice terraces, idyllic thatched huts, and waving naked children--was amazing.

Mixed in with all this was our nightly forays to the wild west of Kuta street vending. It was always hectic. One vender could easily multiply to 20 all trying to sell you cigarettes, lighters, lasers, watches, silver rings, cologne and hats [I was occasionally approached by vendors offering more "adult" products as well].  The kids turned into hard bargainers in the process--savvy professionals. Nick, gruff and businesslike, Clarence sly, humorous and sarcastic. Myung Hun stone-faced as solemn as Big Will [Big Will served as a student missionary with me in Chuuk. If you know, you know]. It was a thing to see I tell you. And I was so proud of them. Thursday was a rush and before we knew it the adventure was over.  . .Friday in Guam was sleep-deprived daze of shopping at the mall, a ridiculous movie, and some time at Gameworks, a giant arcade.  All in all, it was a good, good trip."

There were other rookie mistakes that mistakes that I made on trip. Mistakes I did not record in my journal and won't share here, not to protect myself, but for the sake of some of my former students who got up to shenanigans on the trip (you know who you are. .. and yes I know all about it, lol!).  But over all, we made it through okay.  And while there is much I might do differently in Bali now that I have 23 years of travel with students under my belt, there's also a lot I kept from the trip. I still have the goal of giving my students an eye-opening, challenging, and memorable experience, one they will never forget. I still hope that they find they've grown and gained new confidence in themselves by the end of our journey together.

Corona Chronicles: Muddling Through

We're doing it the American way, I think.  And by that, I mean muddling through.  History will never record our nation as having handled the pandemic well.  But the virus has also failed to drive us to our knees.  We are managing. We are muddling through.  Our restrictions weren't restrictive enough to be really effective. Our vaccination drive will not be successful enough to really suppress the spread of the virus. In much the same way that we hold on to the customary system of measurement and embrace a inefficient, expensive system for paying for healthcare, we are not really succeeding exactly, yet all the while claiming that Our Way is the Best Way.  I think we'll be okay, to be honest. More people will die than needed to, but the numbers will remain within an acceptable cost of doing the business of being America.

I don't have much more to say than that.

As of today, July 15 there have been 33,932,150  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Another 490,043  new cases were added since June 15  This month's numbers represent an average of  a 1.5 % increase in the number of new cases over the past month, and about 45,031 fewer than I predicted. There have been 607,365 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 7,879 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 1.3% monthly increase.  It is also 7,108 fewer deaths than I predicted.  The news reports cases are bumping up as the Delta variant spreads, but thankfully it mainly strikes the unvaccinated and so far this variant is proving to be no more severe than the others, though it is much more contagious. 

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 34,441,132 total cases by August 15 and 615, 261 deaths.  

The rate of increase in cases has exceeded my predictions in Florida and Nebraska. However only Florida and Hawaii show rates of increase above 1%. As you'll note in the next chart deaths continue to drop, so the new cases may not be cause for alarm as many of them may be mild case.

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,383,068 total cases,  82,282  of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 3.6%. This is 68,477  more cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,468,858 total cases by August 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,115,242 total cases, with 8,017 new cases being added over the past month.. The rate of increase dropped to 0.7%. This is 9,699 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,123,049 total cases by August 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 225,600 total cases, of which 1,753 are new cases, an increase of 0.8%. This is 86 more cases than I predicted: Prediction: 227,405 total cases by August 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 37,175 total cases, an average of 1,406 new cases each month, an increase of  3.9%. This is  382 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 38,624 total cases by August 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,402,524 total cases, 10,739 new cases, an increase of  0.8%. This is 14,313 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,413,744 total cases by August 15, 2021

Deaths have continued to drop over the past month.  All bench mark states are down in deaths since June 15. And all states have a rate of increase in new deaths at 3% or lower.

Total Deaths

Florida: 38,282 total deaths, of which 1,017  are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 2.8%. This is 287 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 39,353 total deaths by August 15, 2021.

Ohio: 20,411 total deaths, of which 320 are new deaths, an increase of 1.6%. This is 262 deaths fewer than I predicted and we still have not reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,737 deaths by  August 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 2,535 total deaths. This includes 18 new deaths, an increase of  0.7%. This is an average of 128 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,552 total deaths by August 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 518 total deaths,  including 15 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3%. This is 1 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 533 total deaths by August 15, 2021.

Illinois: 25,803 total deaths, 313 new deaths, an increase of 1.2%. This 452 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 26,113 total deaths by August 15, 2021.

Corona Chronicles: Normal

To be honest, I haven't found it as difficult as one might expect to go back to pre-COVID normal.  The feeling of being naked without my mask was short lived. I don't feel worried being in close proximity to others.  The class trip we took a few weeks ago was like time-traveling back to 2019--for me at least. My students were pretty vigilant about their masks for most of the trip--which is just as well since they aren't vaccinated.  But as soon as we crossed the Mason-Dixon line, masks as as the norm disappeared. By the time we got to Universal Studios on Tuesday, June 1, it was as if there had never been a pandemic.  The park was packed, shoulder to shoulder.  The lines were long, not just for the rides but for the food, to get a cup of butterbeer in Harry Potter's Wizarding World, everything. Masks could still be seen from time to time, but it was about typical of what you might see in a typical Asian city in the Before Times.

8th grade students, parents, and me at the entrance to Universal Studios Florida on Tuesday, June 1, 2021. I didn't push the kids to wear their masks outdoors.  The science is clear that risk of spreading the virus outside is minimal, even among the unvaccinated. (BTW, my usual "window" photo that I use for my Corona Chronicles entries is missing because I am in Florida visiting my family and thus wasn't able to take that photo. It will be back in July).

I find that while for much of the pandemic I probably appeared to some to be  super-cautious and fearful, now I may look like a reckless, virus-denier. But I'm still the same person and a close look at the way I've approached this pandemic will reveal that I've been pretty consistent all along.  I've never been afraid--not once--during this whole time. I have not feared the virus. I do not fear the vaccine or the masks. It's not because I'm braver than most. It's just that I base my actions on the broad consensus of scientific experts (not just one, two or a handful of doctors or Dr. Fauci) and what the numbers tell me. After that, I put my faith in God and don't worry about it. Nothing is foolproof, nothing is guaranteed, and I get that.  My philosophy is do the best you can with the best information available and then don't worry about it.  Some of the "lets not live our lives in fear" folks are quick to tell me that "Well, you know the vaccine doesn't prevent COVID." or "My nurse friend sees vaccinated people coming in with the virus."   And that's all well and good.  Of course the vaccine doesn't guarantee you won't get COVID, just as wearing a seatbelt doesn't guarantee you won't die in a car wreck.  There are thousands of "breakthrough" cases.  But, big picture, it considerably reduces your chances of contracting COVID, even further reduces your likelihood of contracting a bad case, to the point that additional precautions really aren't meaningful or necessary.  And as far as your nurse friend goes, that's what's called anecdotal evidence.  There have to be enough of those cases they are seeing that  it registers as a significant increase in COVID cases among the vaccinated overall, and we simply haven't seen that.

I still keep an eye on the numbers. And I always skim through the articles reporting the rise of the Delta variant and so on, looking for one specific thing: Are the vaccines still effective against the latest variant.  So far the answer has been a resounding yes?  And until that changes, I'll be going about my business normally.

As of today, June 15 there have been 33,442,107  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States.  Another 520,314  new cases were added since May 15  This month's numbers represent an average of  a 1.6 % increase in the number of new cases over the past two months, and about 1,126,000 fewer than I predicted. There have been 599,486 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 14,761 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 2.5% monthly increase.  It is also 8,628 fewer deaths than I predicted.  Compared to where we were a year ago, the rate of increase in cases has decreased by half.  And though the rate of increase in deaths is slightly higher than it was in June of 2020, it's still down overall from what it was a few months ago. I expect to see the number of cases and deaths flatline or possibly bump up a little bit in the next month as the unvaccinated folks in this country start to fall under scythe of the Delta variant.

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 33,977,181 total cases by July 15 and 614,473 deaths.  

The rate of increase in cases continued to decline in all benchmark states over the past month: I had hoped for increases below 5% this month and my hopes were fulfilled, with Hawaii having the highest rate of increase at 5% and everyone else below that.  Nebraska and Florida even notched increases of less than one percent!  Fantastic! It's worth noting, however, that Florida has some weird things going on with their case reporting as indicated in the New York Times database.  When I last compared the states week to week numbers, the total number of cases in Florida, decreased, which is of course impossible. I just recorded it as zero new cases for the week (you'll see that indicated in the graph below) rather than the mathematical negative number of new cases. I'm not sure what's happening in Florida. While I'm sure the state's cases have declined significantly, I don't think the decrease as is as steep as it appears.

Hawaii is another special case. Unlike most of the rest of the country it has not followed an overall "bell curve" type trajectory for the virus.  Case counts and deaths have always been low in Hawaii and they have tended to bounce up and down over the course of the pandemic. You can see this pattern better here than you can on the graph below.

And oh to be a Cornhusker! It looks like the virus is all but gone in Nebraska (though the state's deaths were a little higher than expected).

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,300,786 total cases,  14,491  of which were new cases in the past month, an increase of 0.6%. This is 145,443  fewer cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,314,591total cases by July 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,107,225 total cases, with 17,868 new cases being added over the past month.. The rate of increase dropped to 1.6%. This is 32,242 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,124,941 total cases by July 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 223,847 total cases, of which 1,512 are new cases, an increase of 0.7%. This is only 6,936 fewer cases than I predicted: Prediction: 225,414 total cases by July 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 35,769 total cases, an average of 1,803 new cases each month, an increase of  5%. This is an average of 1,253 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 37,557 total cases by July 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,391,785 total cases, 24,354 new cases, an increase of  1.8%. This is 57,691 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,416,837 total cases by July 15, 2021

Deaths have continued to drop over the past month.  Nebraska and Illinois ended up posting more deaths than I expected, but overall the picture remains encouraging.  The big question over the next month will be: What will the Delta variant do to our unvaccinated population?

Total Deaths

Florida: 37,265 total deaths, of which 1,266  are new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3.5%. This is 533 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 38,569 total deaths by July15, 2021.

Ohio: 20,091 total deaths, of which 563 are new deaths, an increase of 2.9%. This is 22 deaths fewer than I predicted and at this rate we still will not have reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,673 deaths by  July 15, 2021. This is incredibly good news! It's nice to see deaths no longer arriving by the thousands every month. Our next goal is to see those deaths drop into the tens!

Nebraska: 2,517 total deaths. This includes 139 new deaths, an increase of  5.8%. This is an average of 68 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,663 total deaths by July 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 503 total deaths,  including 16 new deaths in the past month, an increase of 3.2%. This is 3 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 519 total deaths by July 15, 2021.

Illinois: 25,490 total deaths, 765 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This 24 more deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 26,255 total deaths by July 15, 2021.

In Defense of Fine

 

Almost exactly six years ago I posted this blog entry about the practice of asking people "How are you?"

Today I want to focus on the response to that question.:  "I'm fine."

There's been a rash of songs on Christian radio singing the praises of telling the truth--of not saying you're fine when you're not.  Its part of a larger trend of celebrating being real and acknowledging that as R.E.M sang years ago, Everybody Hurts. (Ironically this trend exists right along the Instagram and Facebook sharing that promotes the idea that we are living these perfectly "big" lives).

So why do we say we're fine, when we're not?  Why not just be honest and let people know the truth. Won't it be a relief to just be real?

Maybe.  But also, maybe not.

First for a lot of of people "I'm fine" is an act of privacy.  Many people don't care to share the reality of of how they are with the grocery clerk or the fellow church member or even the work colleague or casual friend.  I, myself, am a pretty open person, but I understand that many people are not.

Second, the truth is that not everybody is ready to handle my "truth."  Not everybody deserves to hear it.  Sometimes hearing something besides "I'm fine" is something that you earn, not something that is owed to you.  Answering with the truth is an act a vulnerability and that vulnerability is not guaranteed to be rewarded with empathy and understanding. So my choice to respond "Not so great" is not taken lightly, and I may be selective in who I say it to, to avoid being hurt further.

The truth is that the truth can be discomfiting to hear. The truth can be awkward. Anyone who's ever been the victim of oversharing can attest that sometimes hearing the unvarnished  truth can leave you feeling unsure what to say and resentful that this person has "unloaded" on you.  Sometimes the whole truth is too much to handle for an untrained person with emotional ties to you.  I am absolutely all about normalizing seeking support for one's mental health. But sometimes the issues we are dealing with cannot be appropriately and effectively addressed by friends and loved ones.

Fine is sometimes an act of courtesy, a gesture of respect as well as distance that says I don't want to burden you because we don't know each other like that. I don't want to place undue expectation on you to "be there" for me in a way that you may not be prepared to be. 

Yet, I understand that our commitment to always saying we're "fine", always putting on a smiling face is problematic and contributes to loneliness and isolation in the suffering that is frankly the lot of every single one of us in life.  Everyone does hurt after all, and that does need to be acknowledged.  Normalizing "not fine" is on balance, a good thing I think.  Yet how do we get it right?

I like to vary my response to communicate more truthfully to someone who is showing care and courtesy by asking how I am, but who has neither the time and/or the relationship with me to "go deep" on the spot. I might say "I'm doing okay" or "Hanging in there" or "Taking it one day at time" when I'm not actually that fine. In my mind at least, these admittedly cliché responses carry more nuance and communicate that while I might not be great, I'm not asking anything of you in this moment. When you ask me how I am and I respond this way, the best thing you can do is add me to your prayer list. You don't need to inquire as to what exactly is going on. If I feel ready to share and believe you are the person to share with, I will reach out. You can also say "Hey, if you ever want to talk or anything let me know."  I'll appreciate that and take mental note of it.  I may or may not follow up on it.  It is vital to note on this point: Do NOT make that offer unless you mean it.  This is not the time for false niceties to make you feel like a good person. The last thing anyone wants is to be a burden to someone who offered to be a listening ear but didn't really mean it.

I have friends who curate an image of perfection, whether that is their intent or not.  I have other friends who are perhaps a bit too "real", sharing TMI, shall we say.  Neither of these approaches really bother me too much but I know there are others that are bit put off by them.

 The people I really appreciate are those give me just enough window into their imperfect lives, their struggles, and their sorrows to reassure me that I'm not alone. That's the kind of person I try to be as well.

And I think it is important that there be someone that we can tell the truth to.  If "I'm fine" is the standard answer to every single person in your life, that might be a problem.  We all need people we can let down our guard with, whether it's a trusted friend, a spouse, a parent, or a counselor.  And most of all "I'm fine" should never be our response to God  (which I think is the point of that Matthew West song I referenced at the beginning of this post. The video for that song is very moving by the way. If you skipped the link I recommend going back and clicking on it. It's worth the watch and has given me a new appreciation for the song that up till now grated on  me a little bit).  There's no point in pretending with God, and He can do a lot more with our honest, true selves no matter how ugly than the same perfect picture we present to everyone else.

When the day is long
and the night, the night is yours alone,
When you’re sure you’ve had enough of this life,
well hang on
Don’t let yourself go,
’cause everybody cries
and everybody hurts sometimes

Sometimes everything is wrong.
Now it’s time to sing along
When your day is night alone,
(hold on, hold on)
If you feel like letting go,
(hold on)
When you think you’ve had too much of this life, well hang on

‘Cause everybody hurts.
Take comfort in your friends
Everybody hurts.
Don’t throw your hand.
Oh, no. Don’t throw your hand
If you feel like you’re alone,
no, no, no, you are not alone

If you’re on your own in this life,
the days and nights are long,
When you think you’ve had
too much of this life to hang on

Well, everybody hurts sometimes,
Everybody cries.
And everybody hurts sometimes
And everybody hurts sometimes.
So, hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on,
hold on, hold on, hold on
Everybody hurts.
You are not alone

                      --R.E.M. "Everybody Hurts"

Corona Chronicles: Unmasked

 

The view at the end of April, 2021 and  two weeks later. . .

I hate masks. I hate wearing them. I hate seeing other people in them. For me, finding a used mask lying on the ground is akin to finding a used prophylactic. The whole mask thing is just gross to me. So when I say that I've been consistent in masking up throughout this pandemic it's not because I particularly enjoyed them. I'm very enthused about the CDC's recent guidance change that allows vaccinated people such as myself to go without masks. I admit I haven't been bold enough to walk into Kroger without my mask--not because I don't trust that I'm safe, but because I just didn't want to "stand out."  But that day is coming. The science is clear. Vaccinated people have a vanishingly small chance of contracting or spreading the virus.  It's time to unmask and I could not be happier!

Sporting my "favorite" mask (which I still hated wearing)

Much better!

That said, I've always been a bit annoyed by the anti-mask crowd. Their whole argument has been based on a whole lot of bad science, YouTube-hawked by rogue doctors and crank scientists and supported by dubious anecdotal evidence.  Further their dismissal of masks as ineffective is always based on exactly the opposite reason for mask wearing from the reason provided by mainstream science.  They always acted as if people wore masks to avoid contracting the virus and then would triumphally report how this and that study showed that masks provide little protection to the wearer. But, while masks might provide some protection to the wearer, the main reason we've worn masks for more than a year is to protect others, not ourselves. This is widely known and I can't help but feel that the anti-mask folks have deliberately ignored this reality in order to defeat a more convenient argument.  I find it especially puzzling since at least some of these people work in medical fields where they've worn masks for years.  Yet, suddenly now masks are this dangerous thing?  I don't get it. In some ways it feels like what my conservative friends like to call "virtue signaling", letting others know where one stands politically by their strident mask opposition.

The greatest disappointment of this pandemic has been that so many have had this childish insistence on refusing to acknowledge the seriousness of COVID-19 or to do anything that might mitigate it.  From the beginning there are those who have resisted everything--lockdowns, masks, social distancing, vaccines.  I understand not wanting to accept that something is serious is happening, but grown people should do better.  I wonder what the COVID deniers make of what has been happening in India over the past month?

Now that masks mandates are being lifted, with the understanding that only those who are vaccinated will stop masking, I have no doubt that many who are not vaccinated will doff their masks as well.  Why wouldn't they? They rankled at being required to wear them in the first place. As we all converge unmasked back into public spaces (we'll be heading back to church in the next month; I hope to take my former 8th grade students from the class of 2017 out for our traditional high school graduation dinner; and I'm looking at booking tickets to a Needtobreathe/Switchfoot concert in September), I'm not sure what that will mean for the trajectory of the virus.  Best case, there are enough vaccinated people out there that cases and deaths continue to decline. It's also possible that we could see a slight bump in both cases and deaths as unvaccinated people fall prey to acting impervious. And worst case scenario enough people keep spreading the virus that it has a chance to mutate into a strain that is resistant to the vaccine.  Obviously I'm hoping for the best case scenario, and rather selfishly, I can live with the second scenario as well.  But if we get a worst case scenario and we have to return to pandemic life, I will be peeved to say the least.

As of today, May 15 there have been 32,921,793  total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. I missed a month! I just didn't have the time and April slipped by on me before I knew it. As a result all the numbers presented today will be a two month average rather than actual values. With that in mind lets take a look at the state of virus in the U.S in the spring of 2021. Another 3,201,283  new cases were added since March 19, an average of 1,600,642 new cases for each of the past two months.  This month's numbers represent an average of  a 5% increase in the number of new cases over the past two months, and about 680,000 fewer than I predicted. Over the past two months we saw a slight uptick in cases driven by surges in Michigan and a few other states, but on the whole the general trajectory continues to be steadily down. There have been 584,725 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with an average of 22,386 of those occurring in each of the past two months. This is a 4% monthly increase. This is 32,086 fewer deaths than from COVID than we had February to March, effectively cutting our death rate in half! It is also 37,000 fewer deaths than I predicted and in fact our death tally at two months is still lower than what I'd predicted we would incur over just one month.  I expect to see the number of deaths continue to drop as well as the cases continue to decline.

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 34,567,883 total cases by June 15 and 608,114 deaths.  But I think there's a very good chance we don't get there.

The rate of increase in cases continued to decline in Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska: Surprisingly, Hawaii and Illinois registered more cases than I had predicted.  This may have been a function of that slight uptick in the later half of March and April, and it's possible they may be back on a downward trajectory now. 

I'm glad percentage of increases stayed below 10% for all states and I continue to hold out hope for increases below 5% by June.

Total Cases:

Florida: 2,286,195 total cases,  an average of 143,473  new cases monthly, an increase of 7%. This is 36,459  fewer cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,446,229 total cases by June 15, 2021

Ohio: 1,089,357  total cases, an average of 46,011 new cases. While Ohio did join the Million Case Club in April, the average monthly  increase  dropped to 4.6%. This is 13,829 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: Ohio will have 1,139,467 total cases by June 15, 2021. 

Nebraska: 222,335 total cases, an average of 7,932 new cases, an increase of 3.8%. This is only 326 fewer cases than I predicted (Interesting side note--if rate of increase remained steady from April to May I am off the actual case numbers by ONE person!): Prediction: 230,783 total cases by June 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 33,966 total cases, an average of 2,644 new cases each month, an increase of  9%. This is an average of 1,337 more cases than I predicted. Prediction: 37,022 total cases by June 15, 2021

Illinois: 1,367,431 total cases, 72,694 new cases, an increase of  6%. This is 11,862 more cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,449,476 total cases by June 15, 2021

Deaths have plummeted across the board over the past two months!  This is really good news. After all, that has been the real goal--not to avoid getting COVID, but for getting COVID to be "no big deal" for a much larger majority of those who contract it.  We want to see deaths and hospitalizations enter the realm of the flu, and even the common cold.  It looks like we are getting there! Note the rate of increase in deaths is now 5% or lower for all of our benchmark states. And even Hawaii and Nebraska which saw case increases higher than predicted still had slightly lower rates of death increase than I predicted.

Total Deaths

Florida: 35,999 total deaths, an average of 1,674 new deaths, an increase of 5%. This is 2,571 fewer deaths than I forecast. Indeed Florida still hasn't reached the death toll of 36,895 I predicted for April. Prediction: 37,798 total deaths by June 15, 2021.

Ohio: 19,528 total deaths, an average of 594 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This is 1,607 deaths fewer than I predicted and at this rate we still will not have reached my April prediction of 20,541 deaths by June. Prediction: 20,113 deaths by  June 15, 2021. This is incredibly good news! It's nice to see deaths no longer arriving by the thousands every month. Our next goal is to see those deaths drop into the tens!

Nebraska: 2,378 total deaths. This the exact number of deaths I forecast for April 19. Nebraska hit this mark almost a month late, with an average of 68 new deaths, an increase of  3%. This is an average of 67 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,449 total deaths by June 15, 2021. 

Hawaii: 487 total deaths,  an average of 19 new deaths, an increase of 4%. This is 8 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 506 total deaths by June 15, 2021.

Illinois: 24,725 total deaths, 711 new deaths, an increase of 3%. This 454 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 25,466 total deaths by June 15, 2021.

Climate Questions: My Review of Our House is On Fire

 

So not too long ago I finished reading Our House is On Fire: Scenes of a Family and Planet in Crisis by Greta Thunberg, Svante Thunberg, Malena Ernman, & Beata Ernman (though it mainly seems to be written by Greta's mother,  Malena )

The slim volume describes the personal journey of the Thunberg/Ernman family as they dealt with both Greta, and her lesser known younger sister Beata's challenging mental and emotional health difficulties and how their struggles paralleled their growing concern for the state of our planet.  Each chapter is a "scene" from the life of the family, and each is brief, sometimes only a page in length. While the book is short, it took me a long time to read. It's not a happy story, and that is by design as the neglect of those who do not fit our societies definition of "normal" and the neglect of our planet are not happy stories.  They do not intend to sugarcoat these facts to make the reader feel good.  They were successful in that effort. I did not feel good.

I know among a certain segment of our culture it's considered funny to mock Greta Thunberg and deride her passion for addressing climate change. I've always felt that attitude is cheap, low, cowardly, and demonstrates an an inability to bring a meaningful challenge to climate change activists ideas.  When you don't have a strong case of your own, you can always resort to personal insults and sneering.

That said, I do feel that the book missed the mark in two crucial ways.  These omissions are important enough that they really hamstring the books ability to get us to take the climate crisis as seriously as they want us to.

First the author(s) fails to articulate exactly what the cost of failing to meaningfully address climate change will be.  There are no specifics as to what we are potentially dealing with in just a few short years. Are we talking about an increase in an extreme weather events, rising sea levels that consume our coastal areas, and shift the colder climates further north (and south). Or are we talking about reaching a point where the planet is literally uninhabitable for human life, as Earth is turned into some sort of Venus-like planet.  The language in the book is severe enough that it seems to imply the latter, though it is never said outright.  And that is a fatal omission especially if you are calling for the most radical of change.

Which leads to the second missing piece of this book.  The author(s) never specify exactly what steps MUST be taken NOW to halt the coming cataclysm.  The implication seems to be that there must be a complete upheaval of our current way of life but there's never any picture of exactly what that would look like.  The closest they come is calling for the end of air travel and embracing vegetarianism.  The Thunberg/Ernman family is adamant that offering "hope" is foolish at this juncture.  Any "solutions" that are not sufficiently radical will simply lull us into a sense of further complacency now that we've "done something."

The air travel thing hit hard. I love to travel and I love to fly--it's one of the things I miss most since the pandemic arrived. I know the authors would dismiss my determination to hold on to winging it as the selfish and short sighted wishes of a privileged person stubbornly insisting on grasping my luxuries at the cost of the planet.  But if you're going to make that case and convince me, then you've got to tell me A) what exactly, in specific detail, is going to happen and B) what exactly must be done by society as a whole in order to stop it.  Absent that, it's all too easy to walk away from the hard questions this book raises and the hard sacrifices it demands.  And I know that's not what Greta and her family want people to do.

What are Those?

 

Maybe a couple of years ago it was a big thing among "the youth" that I work with as a middle school teacher to make fun of someone's shoes. You'd point at the victim's shoes and crow "What are those?"  Those whose parents couldn't be bothered to keep their kids in spotless, name brand kicks would pay the price in the derision of their classmates as cries of "What are those?!?" followed them down the hallway.  

It would seem shoes make the man.  They are more than protection and comfort for our feet (which is how I tend to see them, with all due respect to my sneakerhead friends).  They make a statement.

Lil Nas X, the pop sensation who rocketed to global fame with his ubiquitous hit "Old Town Road" a few years ago has grabbed the spotlight once again this past week, this time with a new song and video and associated shoe tie-in that has scandalized grown-ups across the country.  

I won't dwell on his Satan-themed video or the "Satan shoes" drop. Mainly because I feel that we're being played. Lil Nas X's goal was to get people to talk about him, think about him, watch his videos. And most of us have done exactly what  he wanted. Shock value--over the top sex and Satanism was a combination sure to do the trick--one that has been used to great effect by everyone from the Rolling Stones to Marilyn Manson in years past. He doesn't care what kind of attention he gets.  Any publicity is good publicity.  And the more we frown, the more we gasp, the more we cluck our tongues and wag our heads in warning the more curious "the kids" are to see what the fuss is all about.

I'm not so worried about the good kids righteously appalled at the video. But I do worry about the kids who are maybe ready to turn their back on the Christian faith, those disappointed and hurt by rejection and judgment from zealous believers around them. I worry about those holding on to their faith by their fingernails.  And I wonder if, in our scandalized approach, we are stomping on their fingers with our good Christian shoes.

I think we need to talk more about Jesus and less about Satan.  Rather than obsess over the cartoonish wrongs of the devil, let's focus on the matchless goodness of Christ. We need to approach these issues with calm confidence rooted in our certainty of Jesus. When we are fearful, angry, and condemning we misrepresent the character and the power of Jesus. You might say we take His name in vain.  I get it. I'm a parent, and my deepest wish and daily prayer is that my children would know and love Jesus.  But I don't know that "freaking out" is the best way to encourage that.  

Instead of reflexively condemning out of fear, what about encouraging the consideration of questions like these:

Who do you think would have your back no matter what--the one whose credo is "Do what thou wilt" or the One who said "There is no greater love than to lay down ones life for one's friends" ?

Note that Satan's shoes contain a "drop of human blood" and then compare that with Jesus who does not call on us to sacrifice our blood, but instead gave His own blood on our behalf. 

Who limits access to their shoes to less than a thousand people willing and able spend to more than a thousand dollars on the spot, and who has offered His gift of eternal life, free to all?

Who encourages a focus on surface appearance and style at the cost of the self-esteem of millions who never feel good enough, well-dressed (and well-shod) enough, hot enough? And Who loves everyone, but has a special affinity for those most others ignore, disregard, and disrespect.? Who would you rather trust? The one who applauds you only when you are at your best, or the One who is sure to be there for you when you were at your very worst?

What do you think Jesus' shoes would look like? (The same company that released the Satan Shoes released limited edition pairs of "Jesus Shoes" last year. It's all marketing to them).  Would they inspire pride in the wearer or would their appearance be incidental, with the emphasis on the work they do--covering the feet of those who bring good news, justice, mercy, love?

What does it mean to be "worldly?"  Is it just about "secular" entertainment, fashion, sensuality? Or is it also---and maybe primarily--about cruelty, selfishness, materialism, mockery, a celebration of mortal success, fleeting beauty, and talent, and scorn for the losers, the ugly and the ordinary? How often do we as Christians end up advocating for those very values that define this transient world?

I'll be honest. Jesus is the only reason I'm still a Christian at all.  What passes for Christianity today is largely a mess. We have become entitled, spoiled by hundreds years of cultural dominance so that we've come to view our place of preeminence as our due and any diminishment of that privilege as tantamount to "persecution."  Our comfort has become the number one priority, and I'm not just talking about material comfort--but our also our obsession with spiritual comfort, with a desperate need to be right.  I'm tired of the emphasis on "Biblical living"--our fixation on the Scriptures as if we think that we can find eternal life in them, leading us to fealty to this or that doctrinal point no matter the cost in human lives who must be sacrificed along the way.  The Bible is not the source of life-- at its best it points to the Source. 

I'm tired of the dogged devotion to orthodoxies that are as much about tradition and our own comfort and security as they are about so-called Truth. I've seen too many "Christians" regretfully cut off  people from their loving Savior, just so that they can feel secure in their own righteousness.  Too many are willing to "lovingly" condemn rather than risk being wrong. And I'm sorry, simply professing love and having a nice gentle demeanor simply does not cut it, if you have to add a "but" to God's love.  I'm not at all convinced that ticking all the right religious boxes doesn't have the potential to be even more deadly and dangerous to one's spiritual health than any shock-value satanic posturing.  Jesus seemed to think so too, as religious people were only ones He had words of condemnation for.

How much of Lil Nas X latest creative impulse came from the failure of Christians to reflect the character of Christ? It's a sad day when the church of Jesus has given over the role of total acceptance to the church of Satan.

Rather than worrying frantically over who might be wearing Satan's shoes and singing his songs, why don't we focus instead on seeking by God's grace to walk ourselves in the battered, worn, shoes of Jesus and to sing of His love.

Every time I tried to make it on my own
Every time I tried to stand and start to fall
And all those lonely roads that I have travelled on
There was Jesus

When the life I built came crashing to the ground
When the friends I had were nowhere to be found
I couldn't see it then but I can see it now
There was Jesus

In the waiting, in the searching
In the healing and the hurting
Like a blessing buried in the broken pieces
Every minute, every moment
Where I've been and where I'm going
Even when I didn't know it or couldn't see it
There was Jesus

For this man who needs amazing kind of grace (Mmm)
For forgiveness at a price I couldn't pay (Mmm)
I'm not perfect so I thank God every day
There was Jesus (There was Jesus)

In the waiting, in the searching
In the healing and the hurting
Like a blessing buried in the broken pieces
Every minute, every moment
Where I've been and where I'm going
Even when I didn't know it or couldn't see it
There was Jesus

On the mountain, in the valleys (There was Jesus)
In the shadows of the alleys (There was Jesus)
In the fire, in the flood (There was Jesus)
Always is and always was
No I never walk alone (Never walk alone)
You are always there

In the waiting, in the searching
In the healing and the hurting
Like a blessing buried in the broken pieces
Every minute (Every minute), every moment (Every moment)
Where I've been and where I'm going
Even when I didn't know it or couldn't see it
There was Jesus

There was Jesus
There was Jesus
There was Jesus

           --Zach Williams & Dolly Parton "There Was Jesus"

This song was one of the last things my dear friend Chandra posted on her Facebook page before she passed away unexpectedly. Even if she didn't know her life was soon to end, she knew Who she trusted, and Who loved her and had been there through it all. At the end of everything, there is

Jesus.

Corona Chronicles: Pandemic-aversary

 It's been a year.  

One year ago yesterday, I wrote my first "Dispatch for Coronaville", a few random thoughts about the pandemic that had upended our lives during the previous week. Reading those early entries now, I seem so naïve. I had no idea then that we'd be dealing with this a year later.  Thankfully it does appear that we are finally looking at what could be the downward side of this cataclysm. 

This will no longer be my work view come Monday morning

I'm fully vaccinated and while I continue to abide by the general public precautions--wearing a mask and social distancing, I feel a new sense of freedom knowing that I'm protected.  This past Thursday, I got my first haircut in more than a year (not counting three "emergency" cuts by my wife in July and December 2020, and February 2021).   We are visiting Barbara's mom this weekend--without the need for masks, social distancing, or 14 day quarantines in advance. We were planning to go to a church service this weekend with Barbara's mom in Dayton--early so that we could still do our weekly family church on Zoom at 11:30 (today was our 52nd service, a full year of meeting as a family for church on Zoom), but then Barbara's mom ended up needing to have an unexpected surgery and so in-person church was out.  Still, we look forward to being able to go to church some time in the near future. 

 And on Monday, just over a year after I left, I will return to the classroom.  My 8th grade students will return to in-person learning for last two months or so of their school year. Honestly, I've gotten pretty used to teaching remotely. I've always known that I'm the kind of person cut out for working from home.  I haven't missed dealing with behavior management; it's nice to be able to not worry about providing "supervision" when kids are working independently, allowing me the ability to get things done.  But I'm happy for the kids, and they're happy (well most of them, there's a few not enthused about having to get up early).  And of course there's the commute, and getting the boys ready for school will involve more than yelling at them to get out of bed five minutes before class starts.  But overall, I'm glad to be going back.

So what happens next? I don't know. I plan to keep this monthly Chronicle going until September, when it will have been a year since I started this iteration of my tracking of the pandemic. Hopefully there won't be a need for it after that.  We will see.

As of yesterday, March 19 there have been 29,720,510 total cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Another 2,016,428  new cases were added since February 15.  What a change from a year ago.  The rate of increase was much, much higher--over a 100% increase in cases every three days!  But the numbers were so much lower. It's worth noting the extent to which the toll of this disease has become normalized.  The number of cases and deaths a year ago, that led to lockdowns and toilet paper hoarding are now dwarfed by daily cases and deaths that we celebrate as signs of the virus's decline. It's heartening to see another significant decrease in the number of new cases added this month. This month's numbers represent a 7% increase in the number of new cases from February to March, and about 3 million fewer than I predicted. The latest reports suggest we might be hitting a plateau but I hope that the decline will continue, even if at a more gradual rate in the next month.  There have been 539,954 deaths altogether from COVID-19, with 54,472 of those occurring in the past month. This is a 11% increase. This is 41,066 fewer deaths than from COVID than we had the previous month, and it is also 66,898 fewer deaths than I predicted and represents about half as many deaths as we experienced from January to February.  I expect to see the number of deaths continue to drop as well as the cases continue to decline.

If this rate of increase continues at its current pace, I  would expect 31,800,946 total cases by April 19 and 599,349 deaths. 

Cases are down by half in all of our benchmark states this month: On average about 10% of the population of each my three original benchmark states--Florida, Ohio, and Nebraska contracted the virus over the past year. Nebraska now has more people getting COVID every day--219--as the total number of people in the state who'd had gotten the virus by the end of last March (192), and Florida and Ohio are pretty close to the same. So while we've made "progress" we are nowhere near back to where we began. We are headed in the right direction, but we are far from having "arrived." 

 I had hoped to see all my percent increases in the single digits and I'm glad to report that has happened. Florida just cleared the bar, and the other states have registered increases significantly below 10%. I would love to see all states' rate of increase below 5% by next month.

Total Cases:

Florida: 1,999,249 total cases, 171,884  new cases, an increase of 9%. This is 175,315  fewer cases than I predicted.  Prediction: Florida will reach 2,179,181 total cases by April 19, 2021.

Ohio: 997,336  total cases, 57,986 new cases, about half as many as in the previous month and an increase of 6%. This is 92,310 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: This time Ohio joins the Million Case Club with 1,057,176 total cases by April 19, 2021. I've predicted this benchmark for three months in a row and Ohio has failed to meet that prediction so far. Here's hoping for a fourth month of failure in a row. Indeed may we NEVER join the Million Case Club!

Nebraska: 206,470 total cases, 8,744 new cases, an increase of 4%. This is 11,029 fewer cases than I predicted: Prediction: 214,728 total cases by April 19, 2021. 

Hawaii: 28,678 total cases, 1,906 new cases, an increase of  7%. This is 1,307 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction: 29,985 total cases by April 19 2021

Illinois: 1,222,043 total cases, 55,963 new cases, an increase of  5%. This is 60,645 fewer cases than I predicted. Prediction:  1,283,145 total cases by April 19, 2021

Deaths are down as well in all of my benchmark states.  This confirms my prediction that deaths would drop across the board as cases continued to decline. It's interesting to note that percentage of those who contracted the virus who ended up dying remains essentially the same for Ohio and Florida as it was a year ago.  Nebraska's death rate has ended up lower than it was a year ago, around 1% as opposed to 1.4% in March 2020.

Total Deaths

Florida: 32,650 total deaths, 3,872 new deaths, an increase of 13%. This is 2,459 fewer deaths than I forecast. Prediction: 36,895 total deaths by April 19, 2021.

Ohio: 18,340 total deaths, 1,994 new deaths, an increase of 12%. This is 8,467 deaths fewer than I predicted.  Prediction: 20,541 deaths by  April 19, 2021. As expected deaths were much lower than I predicted due to last months correction to the death count.

Nebraska: 2,243 total deaths, 120 new deaths, an increase of  6%. This is 155 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 2,378 total deaths by April 19, 2021. 

Hawaii: 449 total deaths, 26 new deaths, an increase of 6%. This is 118 fewer deaths than I forecast.  Prediction: 476 total deaths by April 19, 2021.

Illinois: 23,304 total deaths, 1,138 new deaths, an increase of 5%. This 1,521 fewer deaths than I predicted. Prediction: 24,469 total deaths by April 19, 2021.