Angry: Your Black Friend Speaks

I'm not angry and it's never been enough
It gets inside and it tears you up
I'm not angry and I've never been above it

--Matchbox 20

I am your black friend.  You know the one.  The one you went to school with.  The one you worked alongside. The one who is a huge U2 and Tom Petty fan.  The one who has a good job, a decent house in a decent neighborhood. The one with most adorable kids (aren't mixed kids just so beautiful?).  The one that you don't even think of as black (and besides you don't see color anyway.  You don't care if people are black, white, brown, green or purple, you love everyone). The one who is calm and reasonable. The one who is not militant. The one who doesn't get all cranky at a little joke, all in good fun.  The one who is not angry.  The one who doesn't make you uncomfortable.  That one, who by my very presence assures you that you can't be racist, because after all. . .there's me!  Granted I'm maybe a little liberal for your tastes and I've written some nice, thoughtful reflections on racial issues from time to time that you  disagree with but hey we can agree to disagree without getting all emotional and making it personal. You like that I never do that. I always manage to assure you that you are a good person and that you're disagreement with me does not make you a racist.

We've been friends for along time. Or maybe we haven't known each other that long.  Maybe we we have mutual friends, mutual histories, shared passions and in the age of social media we became friends without ever having met. There is mutual respect between us and that is real.  But I'm going to be honest with you and tell you I haven't been totally honest with you (and sometimes not even with myself). I'm not who you think I am.  I am not different from Them. The militant ones, the angry ones, the ones protesting in the streets, the ones that you most definitely do not forget are black. I am Them. I just never told you.

I've decided to tell you what I really think, how I really feel, who I really am. But first:

Why I Stayed Silent

I never told you any of this before for the following reasons:

• I thought I was helping. I thought I could get get you to understand the experience of black people in America by not upsetting you, not saying things that would discomfit you. I suppose it doesn't make much sense that I would get you to understand by not telling you certain things,but there it is.
• I valued being seen as different. I was secretly pleased that you thought that I wasn't like the others. I was kind of proud of it. That was arrogant. That was sick. That was self-hatred. It was not good for my mental health. And it was a betrayal of my black brothers and sisters.
• Society rewards black silence, and punishes black protest. We get a seat at the table if we don't throw it over (though God knows sometimes the tables need to be overturned). I didn't want my stances to alienate people, or cause some sort of blowback in my personal or professional life.
• It's my personality anyway. I'm this way in all areas of my life not just when it comes to race matters.  I don't like to upset people. I thrive on approval. Most of the time my tact and equanimity, my willingness to hear both sides, to look for common ground, and to avoid blasting people just to feel good are good traits, ones I am proud of, and don't plan to change even now.  But sometimes it's just cowardice.
• I've been afraid that if I give voice to my true feelings that they will overwhelm me.  There's some pretty deep hurt, and keeping it down makes it feel manageable.  I don't spend a lot of time dwelling on these thoughts because I don't want to be miserable.

Why I am Speaking Up Now and What I Hope to Accomplish

• My silence hurts the cause of black people in America. It doesn't help you either. When, I, your black friend smile and say nothing, it provides you with a path out. It enables you to avoid having to deal with the harsh reality of the ugly racial legacy of this country. I need to close that path.
• I need you to know that I'm not different. I mean yes, I'm different in that black people do not have a hive mind. We don't agree on everything or speak with one voice on every issue.  But the experience you hear the Black Lives Matters protesters yelling about? That is my experience too. It is the experience of every person of color in this country.  Because you see the only reason you think I'm different is because you know me. If you didn't, I just would be just another black man. I know you say you don't see color, but I guarantee you would see my color then.
• The rewards society offers for my silence and pleasantness aren't sufficient. Worse they are only offered to me individually.  To continue to accept them is selfish and wrong.
• I've been trying to grow in this area anyway.  I'm striving to bring more balance into my life. I'm trying to learn to be okay with people disliking me or misunderstanding me. 
• I hope to open some eyes. I want to put to use the good will I've accrued over the years. My hope is that when I speak you, you will say--well, wait this is Sean saying these things. I can't just dismiss it.
• To be frank, I'm also speaking because I think it's important to let you know where I stand even if I don't change your mind. If I'm bugging you (and I don't meant to bug ya'--white friends of a certain age will get that reference), you will either see your way out or you'll become so ugly towards me that eventually I will have to cut ties with you for the sake of my own mental health. Don't worry, I'm not going to unfriend you because you don't like what I'm saying--as long as you are respectful. But be warned: I'm going to push you. And you may not like it. I'm letting you know who I really am, but I also intend to push you to the point that you reveal who you really are.

So, my friend, you might as well know. I'm angry.  And I've got a lot to say.

Be angry and do not sin

                       --Ephesians 4:26

Dispatch from Coronaville: Two Things at Once

Our Congressional Representative Joyce Beatty after being pepper sprayed by police during protests today Photo by Kyle Robertson for The Columbus Dispatch.

It's hard to pay attention to two things at once. The media knows this; it's why we have what's called the news cycle.  They report on something, and when it's exhausted they move on to the next thing.  For awhile it seemed the news cycle had gotten stuck. It was all COVID-19, all the time.  Even the murder of Ahmaud Arbery couldn't shake the laser like focus on the virus. But the COVID storyline was getting old--we were running out of things to say about it anyway.  It was past time for something new. And when America is in need of something we've had a long history of putting black bodies on the line to get it done.George Floyd was slain and at last the news cycle churned back to life. It's hard to pay attention to two things at once, especially when both are vitally important.

But just because something is hard doesn't mean it's impossible.  Just because the media plays to this human weakness doesn't mean we have to give in to it. Indeed, the very fact that it is hard is maybe an important sign that we really need to try to pay attention to two things at once. We have to remember that just because the story isn't the headline doesn't mean its not happening. The virus hasn't gone away. Not yet. The struggle of being black in America will still be there long after the next headline has taken over.

Because here's the thing: The virus doesn't care. It doesn't read or watch TV. It has no bias, no implicit or explicit racism. It's just going about its sole piece of business, replicating in as many bodies as it can. The virus doesn't care that we are tired of it; that we are ready to move on. If the virus could speak it would say: "We're done when I say we're done."  So we have to pay attention. Prediction: In the coming weeks we're going to see an uptick in infections among police officers and protesters.

And here's the other thing: America has failed to shake the virus of systemic racism for over 400 years now.  Like COVID, this virus makes it hard for us to breathe.  I've seen snarky comments about "why isn't anybody talking about the dangers of mass gatherings" now that its the thing to be out protesting. To me it's simple. Maybe for those taking to the streets, the risk to their health is worth it.  Maybe it's fatalistic--the virus is killing us, this nation is killing us. Maybe I take a chance on the former in order to stop the latter.  No one's rushing to develop a vaccine to cure systemic racism; there are no antibodies, no herd immunity, no social distancing or mask wearing that will mitigate this.  The only way to fight this is to take individual, personal action. Is it so surprising that people are willing to risk pepper spray and rubber bullets, a baton to the head or a bullet to the chest, are also willing to risk a potentially deadly infection?  We have to pay attention. Prediction: In the coming weeks, George Floyd and the protests that accompanied his murder will be forgotten, and a new story will take his place.  But we cannot forget.  We can't move on. We need to pay attention to more than one thing at a time.

So there will be a new series coming on this blog. I've spent years being reasonable and calm, making sure that people don't feel discomfited. I've earned a lot of social capital, being that easygoing, not angry black guy. Now it's time to start cash out and see who steps up and who turns away.

Here's the COVID numbers. Nationally we are hovering. Slight dips, slight increases that average out to a more less constant stream of new cases and deaths. Pay attention folks. This is not over yet. As of today we have 1,777,633 total cases, representing a 4.3% increase over the past three days. This is 12,000 more cases than I predicted. Deaths are back up too, 103,764, an increase of 3.5%,  almost a thousand more than I expected.  So looking to Tuesday, June 2, I expect to see 1,854,071 total cases and 107,396 total deaths.

The countdown clock resets across the board in our three benchmark states. All three posted an increase in the number of new cases, with Florida in particular posting the largest number of new cases over a three day period since April 18!  Ohio's uptick was thankfully small, an increase of less than a hundred cases--small enough that I just wanted to wish it away and will those numbers down. Nebraska posted a large spike as well with the highest numbers it's had since May 9.

Total Cases:

Florida: 55,416 total cases, 0.25% of the population

Ohio: 35,034 total cases, 0.3% of the population

Nebraska: 13,905 total cases, 0.71% of the population. Nebraska seems to racing towards the milestone of 1% of it's population being known to be infected with this virus.

New deaths are up too. Nebraska in particular stands out with the second highest number of deaths over three days that it's had since I started keeping records

Total Deaths: 

Florida: 2,446 total deaths, a rate of 4.4%

Ohio: 2,149 total deaths, a rate of 6.1%

Nebraska: 177 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

By the way, I haven't forgotten my post on science. It's still coming.

Dispatch from Coronaville: The Guv'Mint

Over my next two DFC (Dispatch from Coronaville)  posts I'd like to tackle two hot topics: government and science. Two recent posts from the boiling cauldron of emotion, links and shares that is Facebook provided the impetus for these themes. One is by an old friend from Saipan days who expressed skepticism of the latest authoritative (or perhaps authoritarian?) guidance from the public health experts on what constitutes best practices for protecting oneself and others from the virus.  The other was a share by a high school classmate about the Japanese approach to the virus that seemed to involve neither massive shutdowns nor mass testing.  Describing this friend as libertarian would be putting it mildly and his profound distrust of government is always on display in his often funny posts.

Both are good men.  Both I often disagree with.  On Saturday, I'll write about science.  Tonight I want to talk about government.

I am not an ideologue when it comes to government. I probably come across as "liberal" to most of my Facebook friends, but I am not sold on the government as the shining solution to every problem. I spent 11 years looking at the bumbling, inefficient, shambling results of a bloated government. My friend the dentist whose post I'll address on Saturday knows of what I speak. And it gets worse than even that in places where you can't get anything done without greasing the palm of whatever local government functionary you are forced to deal with. Places where the kind of complaints we bandy about on Facebook would get us disappeared without a trace--off to be re-educated somewhere.  We in the United States know very little of how bad government can really get.  After all government is not some giant Entity on to itself.  It's people.  And people without accountability are trouble.

But at the same time I believe that there are some things that only government can do well. Indeed, I would argue that without government to smooth the way, the free market as we know it cannot exist. Imagine if every company had to pave its own roads, run its own fire department and police, and monitor its own environmental impact.  There are societies pretty much free of government but they typically operate at the tribal level and its members live a subsistence lifestyle. I'm not arguing that's a bad thing; just that I doubt the modern world could function without government.

The problem is that when one is an ideologue, it's hard to see when the facts on the ground don't square with the ideology. And I would the argue the facts on the ground never always square with a single ideology. Some might say that Ronald Reagan's quote that "government is not the solution the problem, government is the problem" is always true. I don't know about that. Remember the good old days when fire fighters were private entities?  Yeah, they weren't so good. I tend to see government as more neutral, something that can either be toxic or useful depending on how it is used.

So I've provided a link to the Bloomberg article that my friend shared. You may peruse it at your leisure. I've bullet pointed the highlights for those who can't be bothered.  My conclusions were quite different than my friend's. (Although to be fair, I don't know exactly what his conclusions were; he's the king of the drive-by "I'll just leave this here" accompanied one of his trademark witticisms.  What is he thinking? Something libertarian, that's the only thing I can be sure of).

My takeaways on the Japanese miracle (though we are using this term loosely as there are other countries including Vietnam and South Korea that seem to have had much greater success. But I suppose the argument could be made that a little less "success" is worth it if the economy can keep humming along and life can continue with some semblance of normalcy):

• There doesn't appear to be one key factor that has helped keep case numbers and deaths down in Japan.  There's no magic bullet.  A loaded magazine unleashed on full auto is more like it.
• The "Tracer Round": One of the bullets in the clip was an early response by contact tracers. They didn't use high tech surveillance like Korea.  Japan has had a lot of practice with contact tracing; they've already been doing it for other illnesses such as the flu and tuberculosis.
• Another bullet was Japan's public health centers (gasp!).  The article states that they don't have a "CDC" in Japan but a connected system of public health centers that acts as a bunch of little CDCs
• Japan also immediately accepted the threat as "their" problem. They didn't disregard the virus while it flooded other countries. They went on the offensive right way.
• In Japan, doctors and medical experts took the lead in policy for dealing with the virus rather than politicians who were criticized for their slow response.
• Rather than focusing on social distancing per se, the Japanese focused on avoiding the three "Cs":  Closed spaces, Crowded places, and Close contact
• It's possible that Japan may be dealing with a less virulent strain of the virus than other parts of the world
• The Japanese economy, unfortunately, has not been spared. They still face a dark economic present and future as the pandemic reverberates around the globe.

One final thought. Government is perhaps most dangerous when people willfully turn a blind eye to the poor governance and corrupt leadership because it serves their purposes or purports to support their ideology. There's no need seek out "deep state" conspiracies or nefarious plots to control our lives.  The evidence is right there in front of us for all to see, if only we are willing to look. I would argue that of governmental danger is happening right now. That's something even my libertarian friend and I might agree on.

The numbers are down today, across the board. And that makes me hopeful. Yes I know the papers are mourning our crossing of the 100,000 deaths milestone, and it is a tragedy.  But at least today all the indicators are pointing downhill.  I only hope they'll stay that way. My fear is that we needed to wait just a few more weeks to open up--but I'm really hoping that fear will be unfounded. Both my friends--the conservative dentist and the libertarian high school classmate--tend to take a less urgent view of the coronavirus--at least if I understand them correctly.  And let me tell you they are little devils on my shoulder. My heart is with them. I want so badly to believe that this is winding down, that the re-opening won't bring about the cataclysm that some predict.  My brain just has trouble going along.

As of today there have been 1,704,335 total cases representing a 3.6% rate of increase, the lowest I've recorded so far. This is 22,000 fewer cases than I predicted. Likewise 100,243 deaths is a 2.6% rate of increase, again the lowest rate of increase I've documented.  There were a little less than a thousand fewer deaths than I'd predicted by today.  Based on these rates of increase I project 1,765,691 total cases by Saturday, May 30, and 102,849 total deaths.

New case are down in all three states. The drop is largest in Nebraska but the decline in new cases in Florida and Ohio is healthy. I can officially start my two week countdown. Our goal is June 11. I am praying we can keep that downward trend going that long. 

Florida: 52,626 total cases, 0.24% of the population

Ohio: 33,439 total cases, 0.29% of the population
Nebraska: 12,687 total cases, 0.65% of the population

New deaths are down as well. We are back in the double digits in Ohio and Florida, and Nebraska is back in the single digits. Good news.  One thing I should note about about the death rate that I report here every three days. My friend the Conservative Dentist (who I think I will start referring to as the Conservative Dentist Compatriot, which will then enable me to call him the CDC for short, haha!) pointed out to me that the formula for calculating the actual death rate is not as simple as dividing the number of COVID deaths by reported cases, which is what I typically due. I affirm that the CDC i.e. my friend, is correct. The experts who come up with the officially mortality rate take into account the fact that the actual number of cases is likely much higher than reported.  The number of COVID deaths is also likely under counted (though some conspiracy theorists argue the opposite). It's important to also consider other factors such as the age and underlying health of those infected when calculating an accurate mortality rate.  For me, I understand the limitations of my numbers. What my numbers indicate is a general sense of what happens to that small subset of people who actually have symptoms serious enough to get tested, and I acknowledge that even then this number does not account for a number of other variables such as age and health condition. Now having gotten that disclaimer out of the way:
Florida: 2,318 total deaths, a rate of 4.4%
Ohio: 2,044 total deaths, a rate of 6.1%%
Nebraska: 160 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

The Chosen

My hat is off to Dallas Jenkins.  In his multi-season series The Chosen, This guy pulled off one of the most difficult things in not just Christian entertainment but, entertainment period. His streaming series on the life of Jesus is running on all four cylinders.  (Check out the trailer here):

First, it is well-written and well-paced. In the age of binge TV he knows the art of the cliffhanger ending that convinces you to watch "just one more".

 Second, the production values are solid--for a crowd-sourced project he spent his pennies wisely without appearing to cut corners. and we're able to buy that this is first century Palestine.

He has also succeeded in created engaging characters and he has drawn us deeply into their lives. Kudos to the actors for bringing Jenkin's vision to life. Peter (Shahar Isaac), Matthew (Paras Patel), Mary Magdalene (Elizabeth Tabish),  Nicodemus (Erick Avari), the Roman soldiers, and of course Jesus Himself (Jonathan Roumie) are all real people, not stiff characters from Renaissance paintings reciting Bible-sounding lines in British accents.

 Finally, Jenkins has somehow managed to avoid being preachy, political, or pat. This is quite an accomplishment as I'm sure for any auteur the temptation to use this platform to push an agenda must have been hard to resist. This is the son of Jerry Jenkins, the author of the famed Left Behind series, but you don't get the sense of  this being an Evangelical culture-war set piece.  I love the respect Jenkins shows to Jewish culture; you get the sense he really did His homework to get the details right. I love that the people you see onscreen are a vibrant cultural melange that surely represent what Palestine must have looked like at that time. Jesus may not be black in Jenkin's treatment, but at least Joseph, His father, was! I find it interesting that most of the characters speak in what I guess is supposed to be an Aramaic accent, but the Romans all have American accents.  I kind of love it. I mean why not? For years every Jesus flick seems to have people speaking with British accents-the change is refreshing.

Add to all of these elements that are almost always neglected in most films for the Christian market,  the genuine spiritual heart that under girds it all.  This is a series that will drive you back to the Bible, that will deepen your desire to know and follow Jesus. You get a real sense that the Holy Spirit is at work in this production.  I'm curious as to how people not already steeped in Christian faith would receive it? How much of my positive response comes from already knowing the back story, already buying into it, and relishing seeing it told in a fresh new way?  Would someone outside of Christianity be drawn in to the story as well?

Of course timing is everything, and the timing couldn't be better for a project like this. The story of Jesus, I think, might be best told in this format--a multi-season series. A movie or mini-series is just not enough for the deep dive required of the The Greatest Story Ever Told.  If he takes his time, Jenkins could go for years on this (or perhaps tie it up in three seasons matching the three years of Jesus' public ministry). Further, this particular time in entertainment is perfect for a project like this.  Jenkins was able to crowd-source his funds rather than be beholden to one of the big studios, and he was able to release it himself, directly to the public.  And then of course, it has come out at a time when a lot of people happen to have a lot of spare time on their hands. There will be people who have already burned through their Netflix catalog, people who ordinarily might not give a show like this a shot, that might take a look just for something new to watch.  This project comes out at a time when our world has been turned upside down and and inside out. There may be people who are looking for something more, something hopeful.  Maybe, just maybe, they find it in this series.

I've already pitched in to help make the second season a reality. The big question is can Jenkins sustain what he's started? Can he avoid the dreaded second season slump that seems to beset so many excellent programs?  By God's grace, I believe he can.  If you haven't done so already, I encourage you to choose to put The Chosen at the top of your streaming queue. 

And now to my usual every three days Dispatch from Coronaville:  

I was only 500 short on my prediction of the total cases, with the actual number coming in at 1,648,991, representing a 4.7% increase. That percentage was exactly what I predicted.  I was 1,100 or so over in my predictions of total deaths with the actual tally being 97,670, a 3.6% increase.  Based on these numbers I would expect by Wednesday, May 27 to be looking at 1,726, 494 total cases and 101,186 total deaths.

As for new cases, all three states posted gains, with Florida and Ohio's increases being modest and Nebraska a little steeper. My fourteen days of consecutive decline cannot begin just yet.
Florida: 50,859 total cases, 0.23% of the population
Ohio: 31,911 total cases, 0.27% of the population
Nebraska: 12,134 total cases, 0.62% of the population

Both Florida and Ohio showed a decrease in new deaths while Nebraska  held steady with another 12 folks succumbing to the virus over the past the three days.
Florida: 2,236 total deaths, a rate of 4.4%
Ohio: 1,969 total deaths, a rate of 6.2%
Nebraska: 153 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Travel Bug

It's almost painful to think about right now but I think about it anyway: Travel. That's one thing I long to do.  I can't wait to hop on a flight or take a road trip somewhere.  There's so many places I haven't been yet and now that I don't know when I'll be able to do travel again, I feel the need to see the world even more.

This summer was supposed to cover three big trips. Hawaii with my 8th graders (we were supposed to leave a week from tomorrow), immediately followed by a two weeks in Jordan with the Andrews University archaeological dig (Elijah was gonna tag along with me for that one). Then in early July we'd take our annual pilgrimage to Florida for a week or two of sun-drenched days by the pool and hanging out with my mom, siblings, nephews, and extended family. Those Florida trips are the highlights of our year. I can't imagine summer without it. If only the new cases would keep dipping. But while Florida finally registered a decline over the past three days, Ohio is back up again. Sigh.

Whenever this is all over (whatever that means) I have a list of places I want to go. I'd like to fly out to California and then  maybe do a driving tour of the West, starting out in Southern California and then moving up the coast through San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and then heading out to Idaho before swooping back down through Utah, Nevada, and maybe ending up at the Grand Canyon. Along the way we'd visit friends and family that live along those routes from the Piersons and the Yips to the Carol and the Worley's to the Sawyers and Torquatos and many more.  At some point I'd really like to get in side trips to New England and the Florida Keys.  A jaunt up to Alaska would be fun too.  We were supposed to visit our friends the Bailey's in New Jersey right before the pandemic hit and that would have involved a day trip or two to NYC as well.  That trip needs to be made.  We haven't been to Chicago in almost two years. It's time for a return visit there.

Next summer we are supposed to take a family trip to Trinidad and Tobago. Whether it happens next summer or later that still needs to happen. The Jordan dig has been postponed to next summer so we'll see--and as long as we are that close we should probably get in the Holy Land and Egypt. Looking further afield visiting Ireland and the U.K. is high on my list.  Spain is high on Barbara's.  And then there the places of my people: the African continent--perhaps South Africa, Sweden where my great, great, great grandmother immigrated from and my cousin currently lives, and China, the ancestral home of my grandmother.  Return visits to Saipan, Japan, Australia and a first time visit to New Zealand are a must.  I suppose that's enough for  start.

They say home is where the heart is. But right now my heart has had plenty of home and yearns to wander.  To do two things this pandemic has put a stop to: see places and be with people. 

But first. ..we gotta get through this coronavirus thing.  Here's where we stand. Numbers are back up.  After a steady decline of percent of increase for weeks we seem to have reached a valley with percent of increase ranging between 4 and 6% for total cases and deaths. Instead of always predicting too low, as I did the at the outset, or always too high as the curve flattened, I'm now bouncing back in forth between the over and the under.  This time I was under.  We have had 1,574,490 total cases,  a 4.7% increase and 46,000 more than I predicted.  We have had a total of 94,202 deaths, a 4.9% increase about 1500 more than I expected.  Based on these percentages, I would expect to see 1,648,491 total cases by Sunday, May 24 and 98,828 total deaths.

Ohio and Nebraska both bounced up in new cases a bit over the past three days after a period of general decline. Florida meanwhile finally posted a slight decline. Perhaps not statistically significant, but it still means that clock resets for me in Ohio.  We'll see if we return to the downward trend by Sunday.
Total Cases
Florida: 48,585 total cases, 0.22% of the population
Ohio: 30,167 total cases, 0.26% of the population
Nebraska: 11,122, 0.57% of the population

New deaths were up in all three states, with Ohio approaching the upper end of the charts again.  We just don't seem to be charting a general decline in new deaths just yet.
Total Deaths
Florida: 2,119 total deaths, a rate of 4.4%
Ohio: 1,836 total deaths, a rate of 6.1%
Nebraska: 141 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: The Waiting

"You take it on faith, you take it to heart, but the waiting is the hardest part."
                                                                                            --Tom Petty

I'm starting to study the numbers daily.  Mainly Ohio and Florida.  Every morning praying for a drop in the number of new cases. I need to see the down side of this curve.  Today the news was good, but that has to be consistent over time to make up for variations based on how and when the data is being collected and reported.

It's been a tough day. Maybe it was the dreary rain all day long.  Or the three and half straight hours of Zooming with my students.  Maybe it was falling behind yet still further with my grading and not even getting close to the pile of ungraded tests waiting in the last thousand plus emails I've received over the past month or so.  Maybe it was having Babs gone all day (she had work she needed to do in her classroom today) and handling the boys on my own.  I don't know.  But right now it's tough, the waiting for this all to end and the next chapter--whatever it looks like--to begin.

Over the past three days the rate of increase slowed by quite a bit.  Currently there have been a total of 1,503,688 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in the United States. This represents a rate of increase of just 3.7%, the lowest rate of increase we've had and about 25,000 fewer cases than I predicted.  The rate of increase for total deaths has slowed by more than half, now at 2.7% with 89,812 total deaths, more than 5000 less than I expected. Based on these rates by Thursday, May 21 we should have 1,559,304 total cases and 92,240 total deaths.

Ohio and Nebraska are down! And in Ohio that's a six day trend now. 8 more days and we'll hit two weeks of steady decrease in the number of new cases. Please let it be.  Florida is up for the sixth day in a row so I can't start their countdown yet.  But I'm hoping. I really want to visit my family in Florida this summer, but I'd like to feel that I'm not putting them at risk. We will see.  Here's the numbers for total cases:
Florida: 46,434 total cases, 0.21% of the population
Ohio: 28,455 total cases, 0.24% of the population
Nebraska: 10,348 total cases, 0.53% of the population

Good news for all three states. Deaths plummeted across the board with Ohio hitting its lowest number of new deaths since May 3 and Nebraska its lowest number since April 27. Ohio and Florida are back in the double digits and Nebraska is back in the single digits. As far as the totals:
Florida: 1,996 total deaths, a rate of 4.3%
Ohio: 1,657 total deaths, a rate of 5.8%
Nebraska: 129 total deaths, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Polarized

In scouring the internet for a good lead-in image for my post, I ended up reading the source article for this image. The article in Behavioral Scientist is a fascinating look into the nature of polarization and a different (but I think connected) conclusion than mine about how it might be combated.

I don't know if you've noticed but the views on the pandemic have become increasingly polarized. I find that very strange, to be honest.  You would think that there are certain things that are just beyond the reach of the left-right battle lines.  A disease knows no ideology right?  And yet he were are, with everyone digging in to their usual trenches (well, not everyone.  I do have some conservative friends who seem to be taking the coronavirus more seriously and I have some more liberal friends who refuse to wear a masks).

We tend to think of polarization as developing because two sides hold very strong, opposing views.  But I'm coming to believe that polarization doesn't come from fiercely held views. Instead it comes from defining the opposition's views for them (inevitably in the worst, most ridiculous way) and then opposing that.

We see this in politicizing of wearing or not wearing masks. People who are anti-mask define their opponents as scared and eager to do whatever the government demands. The reality is that most mask wearers don't wear their masks for their own safety.  They do it out of consideration for the people around them. Since it is believed that many cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, it's possible that one could have the virus and not know it.  It's been widely acknowledged from the outset of this pandemic that masks (particularly if they are not medical grade N95 masks) provide little protection for the wearer. This was the reason, at least in part, that the initial recommendation was not to wear one. They do however, provide some protection for the people around the wearer.This virus travels on droplets. If your cloth mask gets hit by spray from someone's cough or sneeze, it's not going to do much.  But if you cough or sneeze, those droplets can't travel very far, thus protecting the person nearby. So next time you see someone wearing a mask, know that they are doing it because they believe it will keep you a little safer.

Likewise non-mask wearers are not "selfish." I do not believe that a person who won't wear a mask just doesn't care what happens to the people around them.  When we define them that way its easy to get angry and judge them. I don't believe that people who wear mask are "better human beings" or more considerate.  They just hold a different set of beliefs.  The vast majority of people who won't wear masks believe there is no danger.  They believe the risks of COVID-19 are overstated, the case and death numbers are exaggerated, and thus the safety protocols are excessive and unnecessary. If you believed that would you wear a mask? I wouldn't. (As to why they believe there is no danger, well that's a topic for another blog!)

The solution to polarization then is not to get everyone to agree, but instead to get everyone to correctly understand the position the other side holds.  We will likely still disagree but maybe then we can do it with a little more patience and civility.  And let's face it if there is any hope of ever changing anyone's mind, a less polarized environment has to be a starting point.

On another note (but a related one): here's a link to a great post about how the choice between the economy and saving lives is a false dichotomy.

And now to the numbers. I was so exhausted last night that I was only able to gather the data.  Writing the above was just too much (in fact, in the morning light I ended up writing about something different than I had originally planned). So while today is Saturday, the numbers from below are from Friday.

To my surprise, as of Friday night, our total cases and deaths had increased more than I predicted.  We registered a 5.4% increase in the number of cases for a total 1,449,829, outdistancing my prediction by 13,000.  Deaths were up 6.1% for a total of 87,385, just about 1400 more than I anticipated. Based on these new rates of increase I would expect 1,528,120 total cases by Monday, May 18 and 92,715 total deaths.

Ohio and Florida's new cases continue to yo-yo. It makes me wonder if it has to do with their methods of releasing data or something. It's weird. Since May 6 the two states have been alternating between increasing and decreasing numbers of cases. This time it's Florida's turn to mark a small increase while Ohio decreases.  The overall pattern does appear to be suggesting a possible decline though. It's hard to say whether we have reached a point of more less steady numbers of new cases or are witnessing part of a gradual decline.  By the end of May we should have a better picture.  Here's the summary on total cases for each state:
Florida: 44,130 total cases, 0.20% of the population.
Ohio: 26,956 total cases, 0.23% of the population.
Nebraska: 9,772 total cases,  0.5% of the population, now outdistancing the nationwide percentage 0.4% of the population known to be infected.

All three states showed increases in the number of new deaths, with Florida and Nebraska showing the most dramatic increases. Nebraska's 20 deaths over three days is the largest number of deaths in a three day period that they've had since I began keeping records.  This could likely be the outcome of that big spike in cases there back at the beginning of the month. On May 3, Nebraska recorded it's largest number of new cases: approximately, 1,450. Let's say that everyone who died of COVID-19 over the past three days was part of that May 3 cohort.  That's a death rate of 1.4%, not too far from the overall death rate that Nebraska has shown.  Here's the summary on total deaths:
Florida: 1,916 total deaths, a rate of 4.3%
Ohio: 1,581 total deaths, a rate of 5.8%. It's interesting to note that Ohio for the last week or so has had more new deaths than Florida.
Nebraska: 123 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Forging Our Own Path Forward

"In those days there was no king in Israel; every man did what was right in his own eyes"
                                                                                                    -Judges 21:25

We have no king here in America. We fought a war of independence to be sure of it, and true to form we resist any kind of kingly edicts from those in authority. Every man does what is right in his own eyes, even if it is to our own detriment.  Live free and die is our motto (or something like that).

As for me and my house, we've decided how we will move forward.  Before we start taking non-essential trips out, we will need to see evidence that our state meets the first of the Trump Administration's disregarded qualifications for re-opening--two weeks of steadily declining numbers of cases. I will track the data myself, as I do for this blog. We won't wait on leaders to tell us when it is safe. We will look directly at the data and follow the guidance of those experts that know more than we do before we make changes to our own stay-at-home policies.  This is less than ideal, but to me it's the best we can do under the circumstances.

Here are the numbers from the past three days. The total number of COVID-19 cases now stands at over 1,375,000, a 4.5% increase and about 33,000 fewer cases than I predicted.  The total number of deaths is now 82,290, also a 4.5% increase and about 3,200 short of my prediction. Based on these rates I would expect 1,436,875 total cases by Friday, May 15 and 85,993 total deaths.

Looking at our benchmark states, Florida and Ohio flip flop again. Florida is down and Ohio is up on both new cases and new deaths. Meanwhile Nebraska drops to its lowest number of new cases since April 30 while losing another ten people to the virus over the past three days.

New Cases

Total Cases
Florida: 41,915 total cases, 0.19% of the population
Ohio: 25,257 total cases, 0.22% of the population
Nebraska: 8,734 total cases, 0.45% of the population

New Deaths

Total Deaths
Florida: 1,778 total deaths, a rate of 4.2%
Ohio: 1,436 total deaths, a rate of 5.7%
Nebraska: 103 total deaths, a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: Missing Mom

Mom and Me in the Time Before. June, 2017

Today is Mother's Day and I'm not with my mom.  To be fair, even without the virus it's unlikely I would have been with her. She's in Florida, and I'm up here in Ohio so the chances that I would have made the weekend trip for Mother's Day is pretty slim (not least because originally we had plans for a drama tour in Dayton, Ohio this weekend--cancelled due to the virus). Still, for the past few years I'd been trying to make it a point to take an extra trip or two each year in addition to our annual summer visit and every-other-Christmas trip to Florida, just to see Mom.  I would have probably made the trip in March or April this year if COVID-19 hadn't interevened.  Now I'm not sure when I'll get to make the trip.  Still I am grateful that while I can't be with her today, she is still with us today. I know there are many who cannot say the same.

It's hard to know what to do--to know what's safe and what's foolhardy.  Just because we are allowed to do something doesn't mean we should.  I naively thought things would reopen when the virus was contained.  And I was optimistic that the scourge would pass quickly. China had what two and a half months? I figured by the end of May we should be just about done.  It doesn't look that way at all now. The gentle downward slope of new cases and deaths so far doesn't seem to be materializing.  I can't stand the thought of not being able to visit my mother (and my siblings) this summer. But even worse is the thought of bringing her something more than my love with me and passing it on.

Right now the tentative plan is to watch those new cases rather than follow the guidelines of governments desperate to revive our floundering economy. Hopefully I won't be missing mom this summer.

While I couldn't be with my mother on Mother's Day, Barbara's mom lives close enough that we were able to drive down to surprise her this morning. We spent a couple of pleasant hours social-distance visiting. It was great to see her again after several months!

For the first time since I began these dispatches, I missed my third day post.  This post should have gone up last night, and in fact I completed my graphs and collected my benchmark state date late yesterday afternoon.  But I was never able to complete the entry. Still when I checked the New York Times updates for the U.S numbers this morning their latest update was from 12:22 AM which is right when I would have been probably posted last night anyway if I'd been able to keep my eyes open.

So, here's where we stand.  As of Saturday night, there have been 1,316, 400+ people in the United States infected with the Coronavirus. That represents a 7% increase since last Wednesday. For the first time in quite awhile the number of cases exceeded my prediction--by about 8,000 cases. Could this be the beginning of expected upswing as the U.S. rushes to reopen? Presumably by the end of this next week, the consequences of re-opening should begin to fully manifest themselves. There have been 78,763 deaths, an 8.5% increase.  This marks the second time in a row that the three day rate of increase has gone up.  Again, my projections were low by just about 500.

My new projections for Tuesday, May 12, are 1,408,548 total cases and 85,458 total deaths.

Moving on to the states. Florida and Ohio have exchanged places. Over the last three days in both new cases and new deaths, Florida swung up while Ohio seesawed down. This time it's Florida's turn to rocket off the death chart, with 245 people losing their lives in connection with the virus in that state. Meanwhile Nebraska's case count continues climb after a momentary drop three days ago. Thankfully the number of deaths in Nebraska doesn't appear to be matching the new cases' upward trajectory, averaging around 7.5 deaths every three days over the past month. I'm not sure what to make of the zig-zag pattern of Florida and Ohio. Looking at the whole graph of new cases there does seem to be an overall downward trend since March 31 Neither state has come close to their mid-April peaks so far, and this could suggest a gradual decline.  I think we'll know more by the end of May or early June when the impact of the reopening is more evident.

Total Cases:
Florida: 39,993 cases, 0.18% of the population.
Ohio: 23,018 cases, 0.2% of the population
Nebraska: 7,831 cases, 0.4% of the population

The new deaths in Ohio and Florida on the other hand look different. None of the states, not even Nebraska has ever dropped below their initial new death count when I began tracking the date on March 31 (although Ohio came closest on April 27).  The overall trajectory seems to be up for at least the two more populous states, with both states showing wild swings up and down. Perhaps this is simply the sad conclusion for some of the patients diagnosed back around April 18 or 21 when both states had some of their highest spikes in new cases. Based on the new case trajectory in the weeks that followed, we should see the number of new deaths for both cases begin a broadly downward trend in the next few weeks.

Total Deaths
Florida: 1,715, a rate of 4.3%
Ohio: 1,306,  a rate of 5.7%
Nebraska: 93,  a rate of 1.2%

Dispatch from Coronaville: #dayofinfamy

A few questions as our liberal president steers our nation straight into the maw of another senseless war barely twenty years since the last one.

This so-called Day of Infamy. Let's think about that for a second. Japan is an island nation on the other side of the world. How is it possible that they were able to launch a devastating attack on American soil?  There are no bombers with the range to get from the land of the Rising Sun to our military base in Hawaii. I know they say the attack was launched from Japanese aircraft carriers.  But can we seriously be expected to believe that they could launch enough planes from BOATS to cause the supposed level of damage to our fleet at Pearl Harbor?  And why would Japan risk attacking the most powerful nation on earth, raising our wrath when we were essentially leaving them alone?  It doesn't make sense! THINK, sheeple!  Don't just buy what the government and it's media mouthpieces want you to believe!  Did you know there were Japanese envoys in Washington DC the day of this supposed "attack", negotiating with our government?  Why would they be there if they knew that their country was supposed to attack ours?  Check out my link to retired General J.D. McCAbe's fascinating radio address where he debunks this whole notion of a Japanese attack as nonsense. He points out numerous errors in the official "footage" of the burning ships at Pearl Harbor.  As a decorated World War I veteran, this man knows his stuff but he's not in the employ of FDR and his deep state operatives so he will tell it like it is.

And the "casualty count" for this "attack"?  Inflated. I have a doctor friend in Hawaii who told me that they are being pressured to count every sailor death as having come from this attack. A poor guy bangs into a coconut tree in his jeep after a wild night out and instantly, he's a victim at Pearl Harbor. It's shameful.

No, friends, I'll tell you what this is.  This is a power grab by Franklin "Dictator" Roosevelt, a president that has been trying to grow the reach of government since the day he got elected in 1932. Look at the pile of socialist big government waste he's foisted on us with his multitude of alphabet soup handouts. It's a travesty.  If that wasn't enough, he's now concocted this enemy in Japan to further extend the tentacles of Big Government. It's a known fact that FDR has been secretly providing aid to Great Britain and other European nations in their fight with Nazi Germany--this without the approval or consent of Congress or the American people! He's been itching to get into this war and now he has the perfect excuse!

And look at the results! Our freedoms are being taken away daily.  Our food is being rationed for "the war effort".  Look I ought to be able to decide how much butter or meat I want to eat. I don't need the government telling me how much I can consume.  Fuel is being rationed and you have to have a special pass that shows your work is "essential" to the war effort to be allowed more.  Who are they to decide who and what is "essential"?   Our factories are being forced to manufacture materials for FDR's war machine. I can't even buy a new car this year! They are drafting our young men and they have to go whether they want to or not. And guess where most of them are going? Not to the Pacific, but to Europe.  Surprise, surprise apparently Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy are now our "first priority."  Our boys dying in the cause of ever greater government control over our lives.

"Don't you know there's a war on?" That's what the war boosters always say when they want to guilt us into living under the government's thumb. But my question is, is there really a war on? Or are we all being played?

Let those who have ears let them hear.

The Numbers by the month: I thought it might be interesting to look at how things have changed in the past month. Since April 6, we've seen a 236% increase in the number COVID-19 cases.  From 365,000 to 1.2 million in a month's time.  With a rate of increase half that amount, we should be looking at a total of 2.4 million by June 6. Total deaths have increased 565% from around 10,000 to over 72,000. At half that rate we should be looking at 275,000 deaths by June 6.

As of today, the total cases of COVID-19 in the Unites States are 1,228,764, an increase of 6.5% and about 17,000 less than I predicted.  The total deaths are 72,618, an increase of 7.8% and 270 deaths more than I predicted. Of course the latest thing going around the internet is that "they" are forcing doctors to call practically every death a Coronavirus death. It makes me wonder how bad it has to get before some people are willing to accept that this is really an actual thing that is happening. Meg Paulins, a friend of a friend on Facebook commented on one of these articles and I have copied her thoughts below. I don't claim her as some great authority, but since practically everybody these days is out there shopping their opinions based on "common sense", I figure why not:

  "Hospitals get paid different amounts, for different types of patients, because they get different care. That's always been true. But hospitals don't label deaths wrong to try to squeeze more money out of insurance on a regular basis, even though technically they could try -- because it is major fraud, doctors would lose their licenses, and whole facilities could be shut down.  

Hospitals, I very much doubt, are suddenly going to start committing widespread fraud, just for some extra bucks, to falsely lie about coronavirus patients.

They know that the information on coronavirus cases, and the deaths, will be scrutinized like crazy, by multiple groups, for years. As they analyze data to see what similarities patients had, what treatments worked, how the disease progressed, etc. If they were falsely labeling cases as coronavirus deaths, but there was zero treatment done to match coronavirus- they would get caught. All it takes is one family to take a death certificate with coronavirus in it, for a patient who clearly did not die of coronavirus-- to start a lawsuit that could ruin a hospital.

All these stories keep "saying" someone died of another cause but got s death certificate with COVID19 as the cause of death.... But there has not been one single case of that proven, and not a single court case pending.

Of course they get paid more to help offset caring for pandemic patients. That doesn't mean the hospitals are committing major fraud. That just makes zero sense."

This is the kind of non-conspiracy theory thinking that I really appreciate. Most conspiracy theories rely on people behaving more like movie villains and demonstrating a level of discipline and cooperation that we just don't see in real life. I believe that people behave like people, not cackling supervillains and mindless Storm Troopers.  I find it particularly ironic that the same people that are first to decry the ineptitude of the government are also the ones arguing that the government can pull off massive cover-ups like this without a hitch (except that we all somehow know it if we would just stop being sheeple. . .What kind of conspiracy is that? The whole point is that no one knows it's happening. . ..)

 Based on the last three days, I project we will have 1,308,633 total cases of the Coronavirus in the United States by Saturday, May 9. We will also have 78,282 deaths.

New Cases

New Deaths

It kind of sucks to be Ohio. Our new cases have jumped and our deaths are once again off the chart: 204 new deaths since Sunday! Meanwhile Florida and Nebraska have dropped in both numbers of new cases and deaths.

Total Cases of COVID-19
Florida: 37,341 total cases, 0.17% of the population. This is a 174% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount should bring Florida to 69,828 cases by June 6.
Ohio: 21,576 total cases, 0.18% of the population. This is a 385% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount should bring Ohio to 63,217 cases by June 6.
Nebraska: 6,505 total cases, 0.33% of the population. This is a 1,385% increase in the past month. An increase of half that amount over the next month (which seems a stretch to me) would bring total cases to 51,584 by June 6.


Total Deaths of COVID-19
Florida: 1,470 total deaths, a rate of 3.9%. This is a 481% increase over the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring 5,012 deaths by June 6.
Ohio: 1,225 total deaths, a rate of 5.7%.  This a 763% increase in the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring Ohio to 5,905 surpassing Florida's death count by June 6.
Nebraska: 83 total deaths, a rate of 1.3%. This is 822% increase in the past month. An increase of half that percentage would bring 424 deaths by June 6.

Dispatch from Coronaville: Coping

The past few days have been a little tougher.  To deal with the overwhelming changes that have engulfed our lives with the arrival of the Coronavirus, I've settled on two means of coping.

The first is to stop fighting the tide. Not literally, and not even verbally. It's more about just accepting that what ever we will do as as country is what we will do.  I've given over a lot of emotional energy to frustration at the foolishness in our nation's approach to the crisis. I can't do that any more.  I've accepted that we do not have (and likely will not ever have) sufficient testing. I've accepted that when they finally do come up with some sort of a treatment or vaccine, a chunk of the country will refuse to take it. I've accepted that any steps to address this crisis that have been shown to be effective elsewhere in the rest of the world will be rejected out of hand by a significant portion of my countrymen. I've accepted that many otherwise intelligent and decent people will throw their lot in with the most absurd conspiracy theories and Covid truths as revealed by Dr. So and So in his latest YouTube rant. I've accepted that we are likely opening up too soon and that it's possible that we will pay the price by continuing to lead the world in COVID-19 cases and deaths.  I've also accepted that many people will somehow deny that this is actually happening and make excuses as to why somehow it was all inevitable anyway. I've accepted that the economic cost will be more than we can imagine. I've accepted that we will muddle through.

The second is to take things one day at a time. I can't have discussions about what school will look like next year or how long it will take to develop a vaccine. I can't worry about what summer plans will be, or whether my sons will get to go swimming anywhere at all this summer, about whether we'll be able to go visit family in Florida. Right now my goal is just to make the most of today and let tomorrow take care of itself.

The numbers: The United States has reached a total of 1,153,303 cases of COVID-19. This represents an increase of 8% over the past three days and about 11,000 fewer than I predicted. The total death toll is now 67,365, a 7.4% increase and also 11,000 fewer than I predicted. By Wednesday, May 6, I predict there will be a total of 1,245,567 cases of the virus and 72,350 deaths.

I'm glad to report the number of new cases has dropped once again in Florida and Ohio, although Nebraska has had it's three day number of new cases rise to it's highest level yet.
Florida: 36,070 total cases, 0.16% of the population.
Ohio: 19,335 total cases, 0.17% of the population
Nebraska: 5,333 total cases, 0.27% of the population

New deaths are down as well so that is good news. All three states saw fewer new deaths over the the last three days.
Florida: 1,378 total deaths, a rate of 3.8%
Ohio: 1,021 total deaths, a rate of 5%
Nebraska: 76 total deaths, a rate of 1.4%